Tsipras steps down, new greek ellections called for *september*

[Sasha]

Not much more known yet, I assume Syriza will split and enter the ellections as two different parties.

[Comrade Jacob]

Good

[Sasha]

So new ellections in greece on 1st of December, new ellections in turkey in November, intresting times ahead.

[Sasha]

Now reported the elections will be already om the 20th of september, thats fast, maybe Tsipras wants to prevent the left forum from getting their new party of the ground.

[The Feral Underclass]

This is an attempt to regain a mandate and sideline the more radical wing of Syriza, right?

[PhoenixAsh]

Yes. Tsipras won't survive a vote of confidence. This means that he needs a broad mandate. He is currently the most popular politician (60%) by a landslide (of 25%) in Greece and SYRIZA support stands at 38 to 40% in the polls. Which is only 5 points lower than the January elections. Working class support is at 60-70%.

Reelection also circumvents the current assembly. Which means that they can restructure the voting lists and reshuffle parliamentary seats.

He is banking on the assumption that most of that support is for SYRIZA as a party rather than still a reality because of the left platform. This is not a really big gamble given his popularity.

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

It won't work. If he loses 20-25 MPs from SYRIZA to a new party led by the Left Platform, he will end up having to form a coalition again. I imagine this time he will have no qualms about forming a coalition with the likes of PASOK.

I was so surprised at how cowardly his actions were. It turns out that Varoufakis had already started planning an alternative currency in the event of a Grexit. It was such an opportunity. It makes me wonder whether there were some serious behind-closed-doors threats made to Tsipras if he did not accept a new bailout.

[PhoenixAsh]

Of course there were threats. They have all but said so. And I am kind of inclined to believe them seeing as the political arsenal that was assembled against Greece. The fall of the government has always been the aim of the EU. This also sounds through the official reactions to the news and the fact that EU officials are quite content with the situation, rather than worried about it's outcome.

Legally there is a small possibility that there will be no elections if the opposition can put forward a new government. This is Greek law. There is a grace period of several days in which the opposition can reach a coalition. ND has stated they will make the attempt.

If they do not succeed (and that is the most likely outcome) then there will be a care taker government until the elections....which will probably be unable to put the memorandum into effect. This delays the implementation of the memorandum.

What is more important however is the SYRIZA party congress. The government doesn't hold a majority there and would likely be severely hit and it was scheduled before the elections. Right now they will postpone it until after the elections....which means that there will be a huge reshuffling.

The 20 seats that might be lost in a split (splits rarely however gain huge momentum in their first elections) are politically seen rather a good deal for the government.

[ComradeAllende]

It won't work. If he loses 20-25 MPs from SYRIZA to a new party led by the Left Platform, he will end up having to form a coalition again. I imagine this time he will have no qualms about forming a coalition with the likes of PASOK.

He couldn't, even if he wanted to. Forming a coalition with PASOK would lead to a drop in support, so he'd need a smaller third party (most likely the Independent Greeks) without the vile hatred that PASOK and New Democracy have.


I was so surprised at how cowardly his actions were. It turns out that Varoufakis had already started planning an alternative currency in the event of a Grexit. It was such an opportunity. It makes me wonder whether there were some serious behind-closed-doors threats made to Tsipras if he did not accept a new bailout.

It was, but I doubt that Syriza was ever prepared for a potential Grexit scenario. They can't fathom the idea of leaving the Eurozone; too much history is baked into the concept of a united Europe, even one controlled by heartless neoliberals in Germany.

On a (slightly irrelevant) note, you have to appreciate the irony of it all. The EU was created to avoid the nationalistic squabbles that have ravished the continent since the fall of Rome, and especially to avoid the supremacy of any one nation (primarily Germany). And now the Eurozone is plagued by a depression and political/ethnic tensions, all under the firm control of a German geopolitical regime that makes the Third Reich look like a hippie commune!

[Sharia Lawn]

On a (slightly irrelevant) note, you have to appreciate the irony of it all. The EU was created to avoid the nationalistic squabbles that have ravished the continent since the fall of Rome, and especially to avoid the supremacy of any one nation (primarily Germany.

No, the EU was created to compete economically with the United States.

[Sasha]

*thread title edited to reflect currently available information*

[ComradeAllende]

No, the EU was created to compete economically with the United States.

True, but that was conditional on Europe transcending its internal political divisions. They couldn't compete economically when they were fighting a world war every 30 years or so, couldn't they? Part of the appeal of a unified Europe was the idea of a lasting peace; it would have been difficult (if not downright impossible) to form a unified economic bloc without the recent memory of WW2 haunting the continent.

[PhoenixAsh]

He couldn't, even if he wanted to. Forming a coalition with PASOK would lead to a drop in support, so he'd need a smaller third party (most likely the Independent Greeks) without the vile hatred that PASOK and New Democracy have.


PASOK will not offer enough seats. As it stands now it will be very hard pressed to maintain its current seats. I believe that I have seen unofficial polls which show anywhere from 6 to 10 seats to be likely (currently 13...which was down from 33 in the previous elections).

ND remains the second largest party but they probably won't enter a coalition with SYRIZA unless the left opposition is rooted out.

IF the left coalition splits from SYRIZA it remains to be seen what effect that will have on the seats...and whether or not its voter base will swing the mount of opposition seats for them. Currently (last Friday) the parliamentary representation against the government is at 43 seats pressing for radicalization. This is up from a month ago...but the real problem for the government is at the grass root and union local levels where the memorandum isn't accepted by the vast majority of representatives.

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

True, but that was conditional on Europe transcending its internal political divisions. They couldn't compete economically when they were fighting a world war every 30 years or so, couldn't they? Part of the appeal of a unified Europe was the idea of a lasting peace; it would have been difficult (if not downright impossible) to form a unified economic bloc without the recent memory of WW2 haunting the continent.

There was a time when the French, German and British imperialist bourgeoisie could compete with the US bourgeoisie directly. By the end of WWII, this was no longer the case, as the US had by that point become the undisputed giant of global imperialism. So the bourgeoisie of Paris and London and Bonn had to reach an agreement that would allow them to stand together in opposition to the US. The European Union was the result of that agreement, nothing less and nothing more. Peace has nothing to do with it - from Rwanda to the Ukraine EU imperialism is just as blood-soaked as US imperialism, or any sort of imperialism. Adulation of the EU is one of the many problems of the European left, as it binds self-professed revolutionaries to the defence of "their own" imperialism.

As for the news, this is hardly surprising. The only thing that the success of the so-called Left Platform would mean is another "radical" social-democratic government selling the workers out to EU starvation dictates. As such to call for a vote for the Left Platform is at best tactical suicide, at worst another example of the reformist illusions so popular with the soft left.

[Philosophos]

Now Lafazanis the head of the Left Platform will make his own party and he won't have anything to do with SYRIZA. Zoi Konstadopoulou will also join the party, but we have no idea about Yannis Varoufakis, because Lafazanis is not quite sure about the role the ex minister of economics has played for the 3rd memorantum.

The party will be called "Laiki Enotita" and it will also have people from other parts of SYRIZA, the Left Platform, ANTARSYA. There is a small possiblity that Alekos Alavanos, the person who brought to life the whole concept of SYRIZA (meaning the coalition of so many left parties) as the president of the party, will also join, but not as a leading figure, because of various reasons, such as the complete failure of the project "Plan B" as he called it, which was a political movement/party which didn't really effect the political scene.
There is also a huge question mark for Glezos, the historic figure of the left. He has been seperated from the decisions of the leading part of SYRIZA since the very begining. He was also present for the celebration of the 5 years anniversary for the site "Iskra" of left platform.
There are also some other big figures who also might join this new party, that are well known to the left-politic circles, but in small movements or parties.

Some of the goals of Laiki Enotita are:
-Back to a national currency
-The immediate stop of paying back the dept
-They will also delete the biggest part of it
(all these 3 things are the main issues, which they believe will cancel the memoranda and also boost up the greek economy)
Through this program they will nationalize the banks, they will boost up the production and will put a stop to cheap-selling of Greece, as stated from Lafazanis himself.

There will be in my opinion a huge turn around of the voters from SYRIZA to Laiki Enotita. At the same time I think I read someplace that right now SYRIZA will lose approximantely 25-32 guys from the parliament or something like this and they will become independend/join the new party.

All these are very fluid though and everything can change and new info will appear each day.

The source (in greek zorry :( ) http://www.freepen.gr/2015/08/blog-post_8146.html

[PhoenixAsh]

As I understand it the part that moves and splits from SYRIZA is also the part that is most active in the unions and has a large working class base as well as it being the most activist basis in extra parliamentary organization.

I don't know what the support is for the left platform within SYRIZA as a significant part of the whole but as it stands now this could bank on the discrepancy in opinions where roughly 65% of the electoral base was dissatisfied with the government but would vote again for SYRIZA.

These demands are sounding more radical than than the initial SYRIZA platform. If the intention is to unilaterally default and exit the union/euro that means there is a rather large shift.

[Luís Henrique]

There is a grace period of several days in which the opposition can reach a coalition. ND has stated they will make the attempt.

If they do not succeed (and that is the most likely outcome) then there will be a care taker government until the elections....which will probably be unable to put the memorandum into effect. This delays the implementation of the memorandum.

Problem is, SYRIZA has 149 seats in the parliament. Which means, to reach a majority (151 seats) without SYRIZA requires a coalition of all other parties. That is, a coalition featuring ND, To Potami, PASOK (that's the easy part), ANEL (and things begin to get difficult), Golden Dawn (and things begin to get impossible) and KKE (and there the "miracle" part starts).

Unless they could get support from some dissidence from SYRIZA. But it seems that the only actually existant dissidence is to the left of the main party. And so, I would guess that this "attempt" is a mere play by Samaris, to 1. be on the media more often, and 2. try to paint the other parties, especially ANEL, as irresponsible sectarians who don't want to work together for the common good of Greeks.

Luís Henrique

[Luís Henrique]

PASOK will not offer enough seats. As it stands now it will be very hard pressed to maintain its current seats. I believe that I have seen unofficial polls which show anywhere from 6 to 10 seats to be likely (currently 13...which was down from 33 in the previous elections).

There is a threshold of 3% to get into the parliament; as there are 250 seats in play (the other 50 are "bonus" seats to the most voted party), you cannot get less than 8 seats; so, PASOK will get either 8 or more, or just zero-zilch-nada-porra nenhuma. Which looks increasingly likely.

Unfortunately, another of those wishy-washy parties, a certain Enosis Kentroon (Union of Centrists) is likely to surpass the threshold and get in.


IF the left coalition splits from SYRIZA it remains to be seen what effect that will have on the seats...and whether or not its voter base will swing the mount of opposition seats for them. Currently (last Friday) the parliamentary representation against the government is at 43 seats pressing for radicalization.

Even if they only manage to get 20 seats in the parliament, and assuming that SYRIZA doesn't lose votes to the KKE, the ANEL, or the right opposition, this will mean a complicated parliament, with main-SYRIZA quite possibly needing contradictory alliances to both right and left in order to build a majority.

Which further means... further new elections this year or very early in 2016.


This is up from a month ago...but the real problem for the government is at the grass root and union local levels where the memorandum isn't accepted by the vast majority of representatives.

Yup. This means even if they can get a majority in September, they will lead a very unstable government, that could be brought down at any moment.

Luís Henrique