When the DPRK collapses....

[Brandon's Impotent Rage]

We all know that, eventually, the DPRK is going to crumble at some point. China won't support them forever, and the Kim dynasty can only rule with an iron fist for so long before some sort of massive crisis will cause a state of instability that will cause the whole system to crumble.

So here's a question: What's going to happen afterwards?

When the DPRK collapses, there's going to be one HELL of a humanitarian crisis that the world is going to have to deal with. If South Korea annexes the former DPRK, there's going to be some serious social and economic crisis. All of those starving refugees crossing the mountains....it's not going to be pretty....

[Bala Perdida]

I heard the south doesn't want to annex them for that precise reason. There is no easy way to tell what will happen. I hear a lot of governments in the region don't want the DPRK to collapse for that reason.

[Sinister Intents]

When North Korea dies; they'll consider it another defeat of communism.

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

If the DPRK "collapses" as the result of imperialist pressure, a lot of people will die. Not because everyone in North Korea is starving, that is a ridiculous exaggeration, but because that would mean the installation of a nationalist puppet regime for imperialism, "shock therapy" further eroding the standard of living etc., as it did when the Eastern Bloc collapsed. I don't think the world should "deal with it", though. I've seen results of "the world" (meaning the imperialist powers) "dealing with" humanitarian crises firsthand, and it just means more workers dying.

[RedWorker]

There are several possible scenarios:

- Follows path similar to China, Cuba and Vietnam (most likely)
- Insurrection
- Military coup
- Foreign intervention

Transformation into more free market economy (which already started) likely, instauration of liberal democracy very unlikely immediately but very slow developments are possible.

[John Nada]

So here's a question: What's going to happen afterwards?.Privatization of all state enterprises, mass conversions to Christianity and Buddhism, the Korean Worker's Party will rebrand themselves as social democrats, call themselves however you say "the Left Party" in Korean and people in the north will still vote for them out of habit. It'll probably still be a poor part of Korea, with all references to the Kim family replaced with the Samsungs.

IIRC the DPRK has proposed something kind of like a China-Hong Kong "Two systems, one country" system as a transition. Just running in there like east Germany would be a disaster, with all those guns which stopped the US from invading them like Iraq(let's face it, only thing that stopped the US). I don't see why the US doesn't just sign the damn peace treaty. Sore losers, I guess. It's actually kind of sad if you look at how naive Koreans were about the US splitting that nation into two pre-Korean War. https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/strong-anna-louise/1949/in-north-korea/index.htm Funny how 67 years later it's the same narrative("Defectors said it's hell on earth, full of monsters!" "What are you talking about? That's just US propaganda, I only saw regular nice people.", as if the two are mutually exclusive).
The second largest party, the Chendoguo, is based on a religious sect peculiar to Korea. It is a humanist religion, that developed in Korea before its subjugation by Japan, and continued under Japanese persecution. It has a wide following among farmers. It proclaims that I am God and you are God, and we should behave as such. The Chendoguo is a democratic religion, since Koreans are as much God as Japanese are. It was the Chendoguo that led the famous and naive pacifist revolt in 1919 when hundreds of thousands of Koreans rushed through the streets in white robes, proclaiming Korean independence and telephoning to the Japanese police that Korea was independent now. They were shot down by guns. The Chendoguo has thus its heroic tradition of martyrs; most of the political prisoners under Japan were either Chendoguo or Communist.

Interesting how the largest religion(besides Atheism/Juche) in the DPRK is Cheondoism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheondoism), with the Cheondoist party a part of the anti-imperialist united front, and before the war was the center of Christianity in Korea. Could this explain some of the stranger shit in Juche? When they say the defectors need Christianity to replace what is almost like a religion, it might literally be another religion(which along with Shamanism has mostly been suppressed in the ROK). There might be a religious angle to this that's underreported, Cheondoism and Shamanism in the DPRK vs. Buddhism and Christianity in the ROK.

[The_Southern_Leftist]

When the DPRK collapses it will be dreadful for the citizens. Most likely it would have a puppet leader or a military coup will occur. This reminds me of a video discussing 10 countries that might not survive another 20 years. The DPRK was on that list and honestly the power situation in North Korea is delicate.

[Armchair Partisan]

It is very possible that the NK military will simply remove the Kims at some point, establish a junta, pay lip service towards democracy and build a China-like managed capitalism (under Chinese protection, of course). There is no rule saying that if the Kims fall, NK must absolutely become a US puppet or a part of South Korea. NK will only push towards reunification if the elite is assured of having its privileges retained.

[Црвена]

I don't think South Korea would go all-out and annex North Korea - that wouldn't reflect on them very well, unless NK actually attacks them first (or SK pretends that they do, which is plausible, but why haven't they done that yet?). More likely the régime will fall as a result of internal pressure. Maybe a coup will look similar to the recent one in Thailand: pretend to be liberal, but in many ways look exactly like the Kim régime except under a new facade.

[Comrade Jacob]

The DPRK doesn't look like it's going to collapse. Sorry to be the bearer of "bad" news.

[The_Southern_Leftist]

The DPRK doesn't look like it's going to collapse. Sorry to be the bearer of "bad" news.

It isn't bad I don't think. The DPRK needs to change but the humanitarian crisis that will develop if they collapse can be devastating.

[bricolage]

What's the likelihood that in the event of a DPRK collapse China steps in to take control before the US can do the same?

[The Intransigent Faction]

The DPRK doesn't look like it's going to collapse. Sorry to be the bearer of "bad" news.

This. If North Korea's system is unstable, so is global capitalism, and yet it's still around with no signs that it will be superseded in our lifetimes. It's an interesting hypothetical, but presuming North Korea's collapse in the near future would still be jumping the gun even if the Kim dynasty loses its grip. The OP may be right that excessive reliance on China is unsustainable, but the Chinese government also would want to avoid a massive crisis leading to collapse that would see a wave of refugees attempting to enter China and a humanitarian crisis on its borders. However, there does seem to be ongoing market reform, and while travel restrictions remain heavy, they waver circumstantially.

[Antiochus]

Some of the comments :lol:

Please tell me what "standard of living" is going to erode in North Korea? North Korea isn't E. Germany. Its already a failed state. There is no "universal health care". Indeed the country already subsists on international food aid.


the US from invading them like Iraq(let's face it, only thing that stopped the US).

That is such a dumb statement. I mean think about it for 10 seconds and you'll realize how fucking absurd that is. If the U.S WANTED to invade North Korea, it would. In other words, if N. Korea tomorrow happened to have one of the world's largest oil reserves, they would be singing the star spangled banned. North Korea's "guns"? You mean garbage from the 1950s and T-62s? lmao. Saddam had "guns" too, a lot more of them and unlike the trash N. Korea had/has his was far better (i.e French fighters and field artillery).


"shock therapy" further eroding the standard of living etc., as it did when the Eastern Bloc collapsed.

Yes but shock therapy was particularly bad in Russia and a few other states. In places like Poland and E. Germany the results were more moderate. However, all of these countries had economies the neoliberals could fuck up. North Korea doesn't have that. North Korea really is as bad as people think, aside from the sensationalist stories that come out every once in a while.

Anyway, I don't expect a full reunification at first and not a bloodless one either. For starters the economic disparity of both nations is just too great for any immediate reunification. If they do reunite, South Korea will turn North Korea into a sweatshop under the guise of 'building it up economically' until they can merge the countries, however any real reunification (i.e the end of the border; free passage of persons between both) might take decades.

[The Intransigent Faction]

Some of the comments :lol:

Please tell me what "standard of living" is going to erode in North Korea?

Pyongyang, possibly. They don't live like Kim Jong Un, but there is a relatively privileged caste.

As for invasion, not wanting to isn't the only thing stopping the U.S. There's also China. It also depends on whether you mean bombing raids or troops.

[John Nada]

Some of the comments :lol:

Please tell me what "standard of living" is going to erode in North Korea? North Korea isn't E. Germany. Its already a failed state. There is no "universal health care". Indeed the country already subsists on international food aid.The US has a way of surprising everyone with how much worse the US can make it. Food production is up back to pre-famine levels and nearly enough to cover consumption in the country alone, possibly for a few years now. There is universal healthcare, though getting medicine and replacement parts is hard due to sanctions and loss of it's biggest trading partner the USSR.
That is such a dumb statement. I mean think about it for 10 seconds and you'll realize how fucking absurd that is. If the U.S WANTED to invade North Korea, it would. In other words, if N. Korea tomorrow happened to have one of the world's largest oil reserves, they would be singing the star spangled banned. North Korea's "guns"? You mean garbage from the 1950s and T-62s? lmao. Saddam had "guns" too, a lot more of them and unlike the trash N. Korea had/has his was far better (i.e French fighters and field artillery).You must've been living under a rock to say the US wouldn't after Vietnam, Panama, Iraq, Libya, fucking Grenada of all places, ect. The US would have definately took out another member of the "Axis of Evil", but it won't. The US has plans in place, 28,000 troops and does recognizance missions inside the country. There is technically still a state of war between the US and DPRK. The periodic game of chicken on the DMZ has resulted in casualties. If the DPRK was a pushover like Libya or Iraq, and didn't have some powerful allies right next door(which didn't help Indochina), the US would've "liberated" that country, with it's extremely large reserves of rare earth elements, a long time ago.

The DPRK has one of the largest military in the world and WOD. The US and the ROK would likely beat the DPRK in conventional battles, but it would be messy. Messy enough to be too fucking stupid to try, even for the US, though definately not good for the ROK(who would presumably have to agree with the invasion). I'd imagine it'd be at least a little tougher than Afghanistan or Iraq.
Yes but shock therapy was particularly bad in Russia and a few other states. In places like Poland and E. Germany the results were more moderate. However, all of these countries had economies the neoliberals could fuck up. North Korea doesn't have that. North Korea really is as bad as people think, aside from the sensationalist stories that come out every once in a while.Those state-run enterprises, the bureaucracy, collective farms and the military, which all provide a livelihood for the country, will be redundant and gone. South Korea is know for being stingy when it comes to welfare, and still has very bad poverty. There would need to be big changes in south Korea too.
Anyway, I don't expect a full reunification at first and not a bloodless one either. For starters the economic disparity of both nations is just too great for any immediate reunification. If they do reunite, South Korea will turn North Korea into a sweatshop under the guise of 'building it up economically' until they can merge the countries, however any real reunification (i.e the end of the border; free passage of persons between both) might take decades.Under the assumption it's north Korea adopting south Korea's system, it'll likely just be poverty that kills.

[The Disillusionist]

If the DPRK "collapses" as the result of imperialist pressure

Is it so hard to imagine the DPRK collapsing under the weight of its own oppressive incompetence? It seems to me that it is only a matter of time before civil unrest reaches revolutionary levels there, despite the iron fist they are ruled by. I imagine civil unrest is already much more of a problem there than the North Korean propaganda machine/media lets on. Sure, imperialism is a factor too, but even if the DPRK was a completely isolated country, completely unaffected by its neighbors, I still think it would be headed for collapse.

Oh, and the US could squash the DPRK like an insignificant bug. I think potential conflict with China is what is really holding the US war-machine back.

[Antiochus]

Clearly you are the one "living under a rock", or quite literally buying into U.S and N. Korean propaganda (who spew the same bullshit, but for different reasons off course). North Korea's military is LITERALLY garbage. They have enough fuel for ~30 days in case of a war. A significant portion of their artillery just fires duds and the average North Korean pilot has like ~10% of the flying time a NATO pilot has, if they can even bother to get their state of the art Mig-21s in the air.

And N. Korea's REM deposits are, as of now, only a hypothesis. Indeed, if North Korea did have them and the U.S knew for sure they were accesible, they might very well invade, or cut a deal with China to square up the market for said minerals. However, none of that figures into the fact that the U.S did not invade N. Koreain 2003 or before.

Seriously, Saddam's military was many times more powerful than North Korea's. For starters, they had actual battle experience, had large numbers of relatively modern fighters (and the fuel to fly them); had large tank reserves that were much better than N.Korea's and better overall equipment. You are fooling yourself if the U.S thinks N. Korea is a conventional threat.


And finally, life in North Korea is fucking miserable. Its easy to talk about it from the U.S or wherever you live, but your average N.Korean peasant has a lower standard of living than many areas of Sub-Saharan Africa.


There is universal healthcare,

Universal Healthcare isn't just saying "there is universal healthcare". Do you ACTUALLY think your average N.Korean gets even remotely decent medical treatment? As far as the blockade, fair enough, but Cuba has been under one too. And besides, N.Korea alone spends like 1 billion on propaganda.

And while I am skeptical ofc that life will improve should the Kims fall from grace. Even the fact that the blockade would fall given reunification is positive enough (considering how decrepit the country is). And yes, there is poverty in S.Korea, you'd be crazy to think its equivalent to that of the North (both in scale and gravity).

[Tim Cornelis]

I don't think South Korea would go all-out and annex North Korea - that wouldn't reflect on them very well, unless NK actually attacks them first (or SK pretends that they do, which is plausible, but why haven't they done that yet?).

West Germany annexed East Germany with no problems or bad rep.

[Tim Cornelis]

Universal healthcare exists on paper, in reality you have to bribe doctors. Recently, the UN stated that about 8m people are at risk of starvation, or something to that extent, so if food production is back up to pre-famine levels, then that tells us how terrible the situation is overall. Regardless, there is a relatively high standard of living in North Korea. Their system is horribly inefficient, leading to things like famine, but apparently still somewhat effective allowing them to maintain a relatively high standard of living. In a HDI report of 2009, North Korea scored at a medium level of human development (of course, unreliable data, yada yada, but apparently somewhat reliable enough to make an official report in 2009).

So what is at risk with North Korea collapsing? The precarious state system will collapse leading to panic and the subsequent collapse of the likewise precarious black market due to hoarding, etc., so it's likely it will lead to another famine, and indeed a horrible humanitarian crisis. Probably both China and South Korea will close their borders and do food droppings.

[John Nada]

Clearly you are the one "living under a rock", or quite literally buying into U.S and N. Korean propaganda (who spew the same bullshit, but for different reasons off course). North Korea's military is LITERALLY garbage. They have enough fuel for ~30 days in case of a war. A significant portion of their artillery just fires duds and the average North Korean pilot has like ~10% of the flying time a NATO pilot has, if they can even bother to get their state of the art Mig-21s in the air.It doesn't have be a great military. Those MiGs are going down anyway, and SCO might throw them some support as a deterrent.
And N. Korea's REM deposits are, as of now, only a hypothesis. Indeed, if North Korea did have them and the U.S knew for sure they were accesible, they might very well invade, or cut a deal with China to square up the market for said minerals. However, none of that figures into the fact that the U.S did not invade N. Koreain 2003 or before.Another factor in not restarting the Korean War was the US losing the Vietnam War, and not winning the Iraq War or Afghan War. These tied down the US, and left Washington with a bad taste in it's mouth afterwards. The US has likely done a cost benefit analysis.
Seriously, Saddam's military was many times more powerful than North Korea's. For starters, they had actual battle experience, had large numbers of relatively modern fighters (and the fuel to fly them); had large tank reserves that were much better than N.Korea's and better overall equipment. You are fooling yourself if the U.S thinks N. Korea is a conventional threat.I'm not talking about the DPRK invading the ROK. In a defensive war against the US and the ROK they can do some serious damages. It doesn't matter how shitty it's Soviet-era weapons are, guerrilla wars have been fought with much less. The Taliban and Daesh have shittier weapons overall. I'd be a mountainous country, with a large percentage of heavily-armed military-trained adults. The guerrillas will likely get more foreign support than groups like the Taliban. Not from Juche devotees around the world, but from SCO so as to deprive the US of a forward operations base right on Russia's and China's border.
And finally, life in North Korea is fucking miserable. Its easy to talk about it from the U.S or wherever you live, but your average N.Korean peasant has a lower standard of living than many areas of Sub-Saharan Africa.I have no doubt that life is hard, it's a third-world country after all.
Universal Healthcare isn't just saying "there is universal healthcare". Do you ACTUALLY think your average N.Korean gets even remotely decent medical treatment? As far as the blockade, fair enough, but Cuba has been under one too. And besides, N.Korea alone spends like 1 billion on propaganda.It exists de jure, but in practice is not good. And the US spends way more on propaganda, It not on shitty translations of Kim Il-Sung and Juche institutes either.
And while I am skeptical ofc that life will improve should the Kims fall from grace. Even the fact that the blockade would fall given reunification is positive enough (considering how decrepit the country is). And yes, there is poverty in S.Korea, you'd be crazy to think its equivalent to that of the North (both in scale and gravity).I've seen some news stories, in very much anti-American outlets like PBS, where I was shocked that there was parts of the ROK that poor. It reminded me of very poor parts of Mexico. I thought it was a story about the DPRK at first. I've heard from old vets that there was poverty, but that was before the 90's, when it was very poor.ZA9I7EcaCegI'm not saying that this doesn't exist in north Korea(in all likelihood it does). IMO the Park regime would be okay with leaving the north this poor. I just think that it'll be about the same at best, or like just about every "humanitarian intervention" worse. You would think that Libya and Iraq couldn't do any worse than Gaddafi or Hussein, somehow the US still managed.