Pete
7th February 2004, 04:03
So what do you think about this idea: Oil begins to go on the downslide, and it takes society with it.
Why?
Oil is used for everything, especially food production. Food production leads to increased population which leads to increased demand for food, and thus oil. Oil is irrenewable, so it is going to run out some time. Many experts believe that this time is relatively soon, and may be upon us (as oil 'harvest ahs been decreasing for the past 4 years).
What does this mean?
Well here is a little table put together by the author of the site I will cite at the end of this post:
If you'd like to use history as a guide, I feel the following timeline is a reasonable approximation of what to expect in developed nations such as the United States:
1-5 years post-peak: Major recession comparable to those experienced during the artificially created oil shortages of the 1970's.
5-15 years post-peak: Recession worsens into a second Great Depression.
15-25 years post-peak: Society begins to collapse. Conditions in the United States begin to resemble those in the modern day former U.S.S.R.
25-50 years post-peak: Societal collapse worsens. Conditions in what used to be called the United States begin to resemble those in modern day Iraq, Liberia, Somalia etc. . . .
50-100 years post-peak: Society begins to stabilize, albeit in a form drastically different than anything most of us have imagined.
Sounds like fun eh? And who said revolution was not right on the horizon? What is a driving cause of change, even in just the 19th century? Food prices. Indeed high food prices can easily be shown to come before times of major social revolt, such as in 1789, 1830, 1848, and 1871.
So why am I posting this then?
Well basically a few people on this site seem to be naysayers that the environment is a big part of what any revolution should be about. Basically I am saying that claim is ignorant bullshit, and using the Oil Peak Crash theory as proof. As we rely on oil and its reserves are dwindling we will see a higher cost for it, yet at the same time an even higher demand, thus even higher prices, in relation higher costs for food, which will also have a higher demand as the world population continues to grow, and that leads inturn to higher prices and a greater demand for oil; you get the point?
Sustainablity is everything. With out it, both environmentally and socially, there is no hope for the future, and it will create us instead of us creating it. Bland? Well it is suggested that about 100 years after the Peak Oil Crash the world population will shrink to 500 million. That means if you take India, get rid of half the people, that will be how many of us are left.
And there are also links, through global warming (which I have not back sourced yet), that Britain may experience drastic weather changes, sending it to Canada like temperatures within 50 years, which will only increase the stress on the waining oil reserves.
So my friends, what do you think?
Life After the Oil Crash - On Peak Oil (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/)
Edit: Here is another quote from that site: " It would take us a minimum of 50 years to develop a food delivery infrastructure based on alternative energies. Peak Oil is going to occur within five. Even if we stopped all wars, and committed ourselves entirely to energy alternatives such as solar, wind, hydrogen etc, the best we can hope for is a managed collapse.
Fossil fuels account for 65% of our current global energy supply."
-Pete
Why?
Oil is used for everything, especially food production. Food production leads to increased population which leads to increased demand for food, and thus oil. Oil is irrenewable, so it is going to run out some time. Many experts believe that this time is relatively soon, and may be upon us (as oil 'harvest ahs been decreasing for the past 4 years).
What does this mean?
Well here is a little table put together by the author of the site I will cite at the end of this post:
If you'd like to use history as a guide, I feel the following timeline is a reasonable approximation of what to expect in developed nations such as the United States:
1-5 years post-peak: Major recession comparable to those experienced during the artificially created oil shortages of the 1970's.
5-15 years post-peak: Recession worsens into a second Great Depression.
15-25 years post-peak: Society begins to collapse. Conditions in the United States begin to resemble those in the modern day former U.S.S.R.
25-50 years post-peak: Societal collapse worsens. Conditions in what used to be called the United States begin to resemble those in modern day Iraq, Liberia, Somalia etc. . . .
50-100 years post-peak: Society begins to stabilize, albeit in a form drastically different than anything most of us have imagined.
Sounds like fun eh? And who said revolution was not right on the horizon? What is a driving cause of change, even in just the 19th century? Food prices. Indeed high food prices can easily be shown to come before times of major social revolt, such as in 1789, 1830, 1848, and 1871.
So why am I posting this then?
Well basically a few people on this site seem to be naysayers that the environment is a big part of what any revolution should be about. Basically I am saying that claim is ignorant bullshit, and using the Oil Peak Crash theory as proof. As we rely on oil and its reserves are dwindling we will see a higher cost for it, yet at the same time an even higher demand, thus even higher prices, in relation higher costs for food, which will also have a higher demand as the world population continues to grow, and that leads inturn to higher prices and a greater demand for oil; you get the point?
Sustainablity is everything. With out it, both environmentally and socially, there is no hope for the future, and it will create us instead of us creating it. Bland? Well it is suggested that about 100 years after the Peak Oil Crash the world population will shrink to 500 million. That means if you take India, get rid of half the people, that will be how many of us are left.
And there are also links, through global warming (which I have not back sourced yet), that Britain may experience drastic weather changes, sending it to Canada like temperatures within 50 years, which will only increase the stress on the waining oil reserves.
So my friends, what do you think?
Life After the Oil Crash - On Peak Oil (http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/)
Edit: Here is another quote from that site: " It would take us a minimum of 50 years to develop a food delivery infrastructure based on alternative energies. Peak Oil is going to occur within five. Even if we stopped all wars, and committed ourselves entirely to energy alternatives such as solar, wind, hydrogen etc, the best we can hope for is a managed collapse.
Fossil fuels account for 65% of our current global energy supply."
-Pete