2015 - good year for revolution?

[The Idler]

What's 2015 going to be like for revolution?

[Atsumari]

Predicting revolution is incredibly difficult as they have a history of coming out of nowhere, often catching everyone by surprise. In hindsight, the 68 protests, fall of the Soviet Union, and the Arab Spring were predictable, but at the time, people ruling in these regions were caught flat-footed.

[teflsecretagent]

I suppose additionally we should be considering where and what type of revolution we may be about to see.

Here in Poland, doubtful. We have a political system entirely dominated by centre right parties. The only real choice the electorate decides is how far right the government is. The worst thing though is that whilst a lot of people disagree with the current dominant parties, no one is interested in changing the status quo. People are happy just to earn and spend, earn and spend. Therefore, the likelihood of a revolution here or even a mild resurfacing of the left wing seems highly improbable.

A few weeks ago I went along to support an anarchist group protesting outside a large clothing concern. There were five of us in total, we looked pretty pathetic and this was organised with the support of a left unity organisation....

I am interested what our U.S. based friends have to say though, they seem to be edging ever closer to something quasi revolutionary.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

If SYRIZA wins the Greek election, now scheduled for 25 January, I think revolution is likely.Yes, SYRIZA has moved to the right and they are certain to dissapoint their supporters but the election of an openly anti-austerity party, with some revolutionaries in their leadership, could be a trigger for bigger changes, especially when, as is likely, Prime Minister Tsipras back pedals from his pledges and tries to reach an accomodation with German bankers.

In the US, whatever happens w/the Black Lives Matter movement, the situation is primed for more uprisings.Overall I think 2015 will shape up to be a year of revolution, although movements will pop up in unexpected ways.

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

SPGB to continue to be useless and irrelevant? :)

[Lily Briscoe]

Couldn't you ask the same question about all socialists/communists/anarchists in the UK?

[Futility Personified]

The People's Community Of Tadpoleton (M-L) rejects your revolutionary cynicism and opens you up to post-revolutionary liquidation.

I guess as this year has wore on more people in Europe has come to appreciate the consequences of austerity. There's also a growing resentment towards imperialist intervention, though we'll see how well primed the public are when mindless, bloody pushes come to being shoved. As the ruling class bites back, people have started biting back, but in the UK at present I feel cynical and struggle not to feel dismissive.

If Syriza get in, whatever they fail to do outright might have the effect of spurring supporters leftward, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that. Things are going to get much worse. If next year is 'the year' by any indication, i'd be surprised. It might be the beginning of the prelude to the prequel of the possiblity of there being a middle and therefore being an end result, but we shall see.

I'm also optimistic about the PKK situation, but more information should come to light before any real conclusions can be drawn.

[Mr. Piccolo]

I don't see any chance for revolution in the United States in the near future, let alone 2015. Most people seem satisfied with the system of work/debt/consumerism. We also have a big labor aristocracy in the U.S. that is relatively well off and believes that they would suffer if socialism became a reality in the United States. These affluent workers tend to identify with the capitalist class and believe in the theory of capitalist meritocracy. They view poorer workers as scum who deserve their lot in life.

Also, the issue of African-American victims of police brutality is more likely to divide the working class to the benefit of the capitalist class. I actually think whites are becoming more hardened against racial minorities. Many working-class whites hold very reactionary beliefs even if they are not well off financially.

Revolution is more likely to occur in Europe or, perhaps most importantly, China. I am not sure what would happen in China if that country's economy was hit with a major recession that the CCP government couldn't manage.

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

SYRIZA is a popular front. Whatever the leadership does, the left tails are going to convince themselves it was the fault of the liberal elements and that SYRIZA still needs to be supported in order to "push it to the left". I would expect more from a KKE victory although that's not saying much.

[RedKobra]

You've got to wonder what goes on in the mind of people like Tsipras. Its not like they didn't understand the international pressure that gets put on a national government. They can't plead ignorance in terms of the promises they made. They either never meant a word they said to begin with or are as guilty as all the other class collaborators and traitors that have walked the same reformist line before them. We're not talking about niave after-school revolutionaries here, we're talking about seasoned academics turned professional politicians.

Why are so many "leftists" willing to throw themselves into the rogues gallery of history? It makes no sense.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

Of course Tsipras is a left reformist. But...Syriza is not like New Democracy or PASOK-they have different social forces behind them.It would be a very good thing if SYRIZA iselected. If Syriza does get in ,sure enough there will be a confrontation w/the "troika".It won't be long, probably a matter of weeks, before a Syriza govt is pushed to the breaking point.The left should encourage this. Lenin originally did this w/the Kerensky govt, "down with the ten capitalist ministers". The logic of the situation has the possibility of forcing a breaking w/the institutions of the EU.In this situation Its social forces which ultimately matter, not parties, not individual politicians, but the movement of the masses.

[consuming negativity]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-u0Co5EYol_k/Ukn5ia_0-aI/AAAAAAAA0nU/-6cq0tna65I/s1600/Review20+PinkyBrain+panel3.png

sooner or later we're bound to have a good night year, right?

[DOOM]

Welp, this is pretty unpredictable.
After all nothing relevant has happened after 1917 revolution-wise. However, we live in pretty interesting times.
Capitalism is more and more pushing itself to its boundaries and slowly crumbling. The unexpected extent of the subprime mortgage crisis and the effects of the following international crisis on the society were just a little sample of what will finally have to happen to capitalism.
I'm quite sure we'll observe some pretty interesting changes during the next few years

[G4b3n]

Welp, this is pretty unpredictable.
After all nothing relevant has happened after 1917 revolution-wise. However, we live in pretty interesting times.
Capitalism is more and more pushing itself to its boundaries and slowly crumbling. The unexpected extent of the subprime mortgage crisis and the effects of the following international crisis on the society were just a little sample of what will finally have to happen to capitalism.
I'm quite sure we'll observe some pretty interesting changes during the next few years

Ukraine 1918
Spain 1936
Yugoslavia Post-WWII
czechoslovakia 1968

Just off the top of my head. But 1917 was not the end of revolution or the revolutionary movement.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

I might add China 1923-27, China 1949, Spain 1936,France 1968.

[bricolage]

Well, how did we do last year (http://www.revleft.com/vb/political-predictions-2014-t186051/index.html?p=2701488)?
Personally, I don't think I was too far off. I'd probably say something similar now.

[Troublesome Gnat]

I see that it will become more common in 2015 to have a series of major rebellions where the masses challenge, sometimes successfully sometimes not, individual leaders and governments but whether these become revolutions led by a self conscious working class I very much doubt. I suspect that the world will be just as shitty this time next year with the capitalists globally retaining their economic and political power and the left just as marginalised.

[STALINwasntSTALLIN]

December 31, 2008:

Is 2009 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Wall Street has collapsed and capitalism is in crisis.

December 31, 2009:

Is 2010 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at the rise of the Left.

December 31, 2010:

Is 2011 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at the Arab Spring.

December 31, 2011:

Is 2012 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Just look at Occupy Wall Street.

December 31, 2012:

Is 2013 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! The revolution is right around the corner.

December 31, 2013:

Is 2014 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at the all the protests.

December 31, 2014:

Is 2015 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at Syriza, Podemos, etc.

I want revolution 2015 as much as the next Marxist, but it probably will not happen.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

December 31, 2008:

Is 2009 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Wall Street has collapsed and capitalism is in crisis.

December 31, 2009:

Is 2010 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at the rise of the Left.

December 31, 2010:

Is 2011 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at the Arab Spring.

December 31, 2011:

Is 2012 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Just look at Occupy Wall Street.

December 31, 2012:

Is 2013 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! The revolution is right around the corner.

December 31, 2013:

Is 2014 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at the all the protests.

December 31, 2014:

Is 2015 going to be a good year for revolution? Of course! Look at Syriza, Podemos, etc.

I want revolution 2015 as much as the next Marxist, but it probably will not happen.

Revolution is a process, not a static thing.This is an age of revolution and counter revolution. The last few years have certainly seen massive protests and uprisings unprecedented since 1968 or earlier.Gezi Park, Tahrir Square, Madison, Madrid, Portugal, Brazil, Mexico, the US. None of this was happening before 2007. While there are still few gains to show from the global protest movement,the fact that it exists and is intensifying is unprecedented. it is building towards a crescendo. What this will lead to is very much up in the air but the crisis of capitalism can only get worse, struggles are bound to increase and intensify.

Did Russian revolutionaries say "we lost 1905, lets throw in the towel"? Again, revolution is a long, drawn out process.Revolution already is happening.

[Thirsty Crow]

What's 2015 going to be like for revolution?
Terrible, that's what.

We're at the start of a new cycle of (attempted) accumulation in Europe and North America, and prospects for revolutionary upheaval are extremely limited.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

Lets wait a month or two, then see.

[STALINwasntSTALLIN]

Revolution is a process, not a static thing.This is an age of revolution and counter revolution. The last few years have certainly seen massive protests and uprisings unprecedented since 1968 or earlier.Gezi Park, Tahrir Square, Madison, Madrid, Portugal, Brazil, Mexico, the US. None of this was happening before 2007. While there are still few gains to show from the global protest movement,the fact that it exists and is intensifying is unprecedented. it is building towards a crescendo. What this will lead to is very much up in the air but the crisis of capitalism can only get worse, struggles are bound to increase and intensify.

Did Russian revolutionaries say "we lost 1905, lets throw in the towel"? Again, revolution is a long, drawn out process.Revolution already is happening.

Where did I say give up? Nowhere. The fact of the matter is that most Marxists suffer from a great deal of overconfidence (along with delusions of grandeur and several other things). I fully support putting our all into the struggle, but we should not pretend the revolution is right around the corner. This will only lead to disappointment, despair, and ultimately burnout.

As an aside, by 1916 Lenin had been a revolutionary and he had failed every time. He was by then living in exile in Switzerland and had given up on seeing the revolution in his lifetime. Then the February Revolution broke out in 1917 without the Bolsheviks doing anything and he immediately rushed back to Russia. So I guess the moral of this story is that a revolution can happen when you least expect it.

[Atsumari]

Speak for yourself bro. The only Marxists I see that suffer from a great deal of overconfidence are tankies and some Trot sects.

[Devrim]

There isn't going to be a revolution next year. Anybody who thinks there is is living on planet Janet.

The working class is far too weak.

Devrim

[Palmares]

Next year? We still have time this year! What better time than now!

:w00t::che::hammersickle::blackA::engles::cubaflag ::star3::castro::star2::redstar2000::star::reda::n inja::marx::trotski::eek:

[RedKobra]

As has been pointed out you almost have to take the long view. The eruption point of 1917 was not an instantaneous thing, seperated from everything that went before. It was a direct product of all the tremours that had gone before. No one knows how long the tremours will go on for befor we get the explosion but they must be seen as a sign that social forces are moving.

It also depends what you mean by revolution. If you mean could there be working class seizures of power in some more unstable countries, then maybe. Although technically I'm not sure we've actually seen a full on proletarian seizure of power yet, bourgeois democracy still exists in all of the Arab Spring countries.

What I think of by revolution is a significant Capitalist country falling to the workers. Then and only then will there be a genuine moment of crisis in the world sufficient enough to rally troops to one side or the other. The catalyst, if you will. If Tunisia went socialist, the ensuing Capitalist repression, I don't think, would be enough to rally the workers of the world in solidarity. Maybe not even if it happened in Greece. If, however, it happened in Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Britain then who knows.

Do I think any of that is going to happen in the next 12 months, no.

China falling to the workers would be a fascinating development but maybe a bit distant and divorced for most in the west to be able to grasp the significance.

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

Of course Tsipras is a left reformist. But...Syriza is not like New Democracy or PASOK-they have different social forces behind them.It would be a very good thing if SYRIZA iselected. If Syriza does get in ,sure enough there will be a confrontation w/the "troika".It won't be long, probably a matter of weeks, before a Syriza govt is pushed to the breaking point.The left should encourage this. Lenin originally did this w/the Kerensky govt, "down with the ten capitalist ministers". The logic of the situation has the possibility of forcing a breaking w/the institutions of the EU.In this situation Its social forces which ultimately matter, not parties, not individual politicians, but the movement of the masses.

To adapt the slogan of "down with the ten capitalist ministers!" to the situation in Greece would mean to call "down with half of SYRIZA!". Down with Synaspismos, down with DIKKI, down with EDIK, down with Rizospastes... It would mean to call for the dissolution of SYRIZA. One might as well call for the Greek government to kindly dissolve itself.

And of course, Lenin never claimed that a revolution would happen if the ten capitalist ministers (something of a misnomer; all the ministers of the Provisional Government were capitalist) were removed. In fact the Bolsheviks knew that they would not be removed. The slogan was a provocation to the Mensheviks: "you can't take power and you know it".

I'm sorry, but the way you're arguing in this thread is objectivist. And a lot of people are arguing in a purely objectivist manner as well. The revolution is not going to fall from the sky, and neither is it going to transmute out of an amorphous "popular movement". Without the revolutionary workers' party there is no revolution. Do we have a revolutionary workers' party? No. I don't know if one will be formed in the next year, but if it is not, there is going to be no revolution. Perhaps that is hard to hear for some people but that's how it is.

[Danielle Ni Dhighe]

Revolution? In 2015? Not very likely, I'm afraid.

[bricolage]

I don't even think people are overconfident any more. Definitely at the end of 2011 there was a sense that we were in a period of great upheaval but by the end of 2012 it had all pretty much collapsed into electoralism, sectarianism or defeat. I guess people do get excited about certain things such as some people's attitudes to Rojava and others to the possibility of a second civil rights movement in the USA. But generally I think people know pretty well what the situation is.

[Red Star Rising]

If there's another financial crisis or a wave of mass-austerity or some other reason for people to become pissed off at capitalism then yeah. If not, no. Communist parties in the developed world are far too busy being useless and Revleft is far too busy being irrelevant. The revolution would have to come from the masses and would be sparked by discontent at....something.....this is not easy to predict and it is probably counter-productive to try.

[TheBigREDOne]

it is probably counter-productive to try.

How so?

[motion denied]

Revolution is in 2015, it's in 2014, it's everywhere, in every small thing you do daily, the small gestures, the positive thoughts. Our free spirit, we are the revolution. <3


powered by boredom

[newdayrising]

I thought it would be difficult and dangerous, was I wrong the whole time?


Revolution is in 2015, it's in 2014, it's everywhere, in every small thing you do daily, the small gestures, the positive thoughts. Our free spirit, we are the revolution. <3


powered by boredom

[motion denied]

Yes! You just need to wear your nicest white or light blue clothes and walk around your neighbourhood feeling the breeze as this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9oq_IskRIg) plays in the background. Freedom at last!

[newdayrising]

I have to say I do remember people getting into Crimethinc circa Y2K because they said things like that, so you might have a point.

Yes! You just need to wear your nicest white or light blue clothes and walk around your neighbourhood feeling the breeze as this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9oq_IskRIg) plays in the background. Freedom at last!

[SHORAS]

The global trend is war, disintegration and poverty. The working class is lost amongst it, confused and battered. There is no world organisation worthy of the name working class.

[PhoenixAsh]

If only we could increase our newspaper sales....

[Diirez]

America is one of the weirdest places. We were built upon revolution, you would think the people would be more open to revolutions. The whole anti-communist movement during the Soviet Union era really was detrimental to communism. The people here are not content at all with the government, there's even a small population that hates the government so much they think the government stages things like the Boston bombing and 9/11 and yet no one wants to do anything. They still think electing the two same parties that we have been for years will fix something. Not to mention all the fake things they teach kids about communism.
Schools teach kids to listen to authority, not to do research on their own and we're told 'communism only works in theory' and Karl Marx advocated for dictatorship, those kind of things. It's somewhat known that I'm one of the few communists at my school and so a lot of the times people will come up to me to challenge me on it. My best moment was when someone tried to tell me that Karl Marx would've approved of the Soviet Union.

I don't see America ever having another revolution, no matter how many times a police officers kill African Americans, no matter how many times the banks and corporations continue to fuck over the people, they will never wake up an realize things need to change. They'll just continue the same cycle they've always been doing, something bad will happen, people will get mad and rant on twitter, maybe start a new hashtag, possibly petition and then in a few weeks forget about it with nothing being changed until something bad happens again.

We can't even get affordable health care to lower class citizens let alone universal health care, that we know works around the world. People still buy that unions are bad and increasing minimum wage will destroy businesses, despite the rest of the world not having those problems.

End Rant.

[Ravn]

People still buy that unions are bad and increasing minimum wage will destroy businesses, despite the rest of the world not having those problems.



These polls suggest that half or more of people favor unions & minimum wage hikes. There's less support for extensions of unemployment benefits & there's support for right to work. All of that reflects people being cowed by the system wherein they have a jealous regard for what they can hold onto & an envious regard at what they deem is unwarranted benefits for other workers. There's a unity & disunity here, the former in recognizing that the system is stacked against them, & the latter, what the system has convinced people that the dog-eat-dog-ness of it all is the natural order, & insurmountable.

Where's there's smoke, there's a fire.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/12751/labor-unions.aspx

http://www.pollingreport.com/work.htm

[PhoenixAsh]

Here is what I think will happen in 2015 for the western countries:


We will see an increase in austerity measures and a rise in unemployment and a further widening of the wage gap. The amount of people who will live just on or below the poverty line will increase dramatically. The average debt per capita will increase significantly. The influence of neo-liberal parties will push the "solution" towards further repression of unemployed and those in a dependence situation on government aid and will further break down workers rights in favor of bussiness.

There will be an increase in protests, dissatisfaction and riots. This will however not lead to an increase in class conscious towards radical left wing solutions. Instead there will be a puhs towards support for right wing populist parties.

The bourgeois left will mostly be moving further towards the center and ask for less dramatic measures in order to soften the blows etc. and ultimately will cave completely.

The radical left and supposed revolutionary parties will mostly be absent or focus on electoral gains or call for left-wing unity with the social democratic parties of the center and center-right against both the radical left parties that favor revolution and the far-right.

There will be no revolutionary situation developing in any meaningful sense for the radical left. All opportunities will be missed. We will instead see a significant increase in the far-right.

[Thirsty Crow]

If SYRIZA wins the Greek election, now scheduled for 25 January, I think revolution is likely.Yes, SYRIZA has moved to the right and they are certain to dissapoint their supporters but the election of an openly anti-austerity party, with some revolutionaries in their leadership, could be a trigger for bigger changes, especially when, as is likely, Prime Minister Tsipras back pedals from his pledges and tries to reach an accomodation with German bankers.

Whole lot of problematic assumptions here.

First, there's a naked contradiction in the argument between the claim of SYRIZA representing an "openly anti-austerity party" and the org moving to the right, coupled with expectations of a political compromise. SYRIZA has, for the purposes of this specific debate, never been an "openly anti-austerity" party if we do not solely rely on rhetoric as the criterion. The platform it pursues is clearly rigged to reach a compromise and a restructuring of debt so that austerity might as well be restructured - supposedly to the benefit of the working class.

Now, it would be sensible to ask, what kind of a benefit is that. An immediate benefit of not having completely shit lives? Sure, but that's like basing grand projections into the future on not being smacked in the face ten times, but merely five.

Secondly, the political practice of said organization is completely dependent on current alienated political activity; as such, it cannot but reinforce the wider relations it depends on. And these are wider than the opposition between the policies of austerity and welfarism (of some kind). This simple fact not only throws the proclamation of likely social revolution (there is also the question of timescale) into doubt, but it makes of it an optimistic pipe dream.

The crucial thing here being how will the supposed disappointment manifest itself and affect the activity of "supporters". I'm willing to bet that if such a thing occurs, we can likely expect a SYRIZA 2.0 in the near future. The really revolutionary party, of course. And back onto the same old path which I sketched above, of failing to recognize the activity of communist militants as fundamentally driven by a particular aspect of capitalist social relations. The oh so joyful merry-go-round. We haven't had enough of that, have we?

Another problem is the solely nation-based focus of the argument. Issues of international working class action and links are completely left out, and the question that practically poses itself is how would the Greek working class build their political power in the absence of an international revolutionary wave (and how would Tsipras "reneging" contribute to the flowering of class activity in, say, Germany). Even if we grant the likelihood of revolution in the first place. And there aren't any compelling reasons to do so.