WTF is happening in the Turkish local elections?

[DDR]

After the corruption probe, the internet censorship, the false flag scandal and other stuff Turkey is voting. The recount so far has been: 8 dead, 30 something injured, 45 cities in a power blackout, lots calls of foul and riggering and of course everybody candidate is shouting "I won".

So, could someone be so kind to explain wtf is going on? How's the people's mood about all this stuff?

[Devrim]

It is a massive victory for the AKP. With 68% of the vote counted, they have received 43% of the votes. This graphic (http://secim2014.radikal.com.tr/) updates automatically with the latest results.

Devrim

[Sasha]

Are they gonna hold on to Istanbul and Ankara too?

[Devrim]

Are they gonna hold on to Istanbul and Ankara too?

Yes, easily. The link above doesn't seem to work. This one has all the details: http://www.cnnturk.com/secim2014/

If you scroll down there is a map, and if you hold the cursor over it, it shows the winner in each province.
Devrim

[Dodo]

Ankara has 3000 differene at 85% of votes but İstanbul they smashed.

[Sasha]

Blog post detailing various fraud cases; http://www.sendika.org/2014/03/turkey-local-elections-a-peoples-mobilisation-against-cheating-and-fraud-in-ballot-boxes/

[Tim Cornelis]

Aaaw yeaah TKP and ÖDP won one seat each. ¡Viva la Revolución!

[Worker-Karker-İşÃ§i]

Maoist Communist Party's legal organiztion Democratic Rights Federation entered the election from TKP and ÖDP lists in Dersim (They are very active in the region. Also they guerillas at there too)

And they win the Mazgirt and Ovacık.

I am suprised by the performance of AKP.

[khad]

After the corruption probe, the internet censorship, the false flag scandal and other stuff Turkey is voting. The recount so far has been: 8 dead, 30 something injured, 45 cities in a power blackout, lots calls of foul and riggering and of course everybody candidate is shouting "I won".

So, could someone be so kind to explain wtf is going on? How's the people's mood about all this stuff?
Just assume that the Sultan owns their souls now and forever. AKP is simply too big with too much of a hardcore base to take down by conventional means.

[revani]

Dead and wounded people has nothing to do with real elections. These were killed in fights for 'Muhtar' (revee or sheriff like position, very local) elections.

Ankara isn't lost to AKP (JDP) right now. Although the unofficial results state that AKP has won, CHP (RPP) objects to these results. The official results will be published after these objections are resolved.

But still, the rival of AKP in Ankara is CHP and their candidate (Mansur Yavas) has fascist/racist origins (MHP, National Movement Party). So, even if AKP doesn't eventually win in Ankara, we will still lose :)

[Tim Cornelis]

http://davetsizmisafirler.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/2014_2011_ilce_bazli_sonuc.jpg

So apparently I misread. ÖDP and TKP didn't win one seat, but one province. That's sorta awesome I guess. Pretty saddening to see the rise of the MHP.

[revani]

So apparently I misread. ÖDP and TKP didn't win one seat, but one province. That's sorta awesome I guess. Pretty saddening to see the rise of the MHP.

Yeah, but in the overall votes, MHP's previous votes slided to AKP (and in some provinces such as Istanbul and Ankara, CHP).

The more concerning matter is that IP (Worker's party, a nazi organization) is also on the rise due to the fact that CHP cannot satisfy their ultra-nationalist members.

And I think the pictures you've shared are quite misleading. AKP didn't lose the support of the overall masses, the results clearly show that AKP has won the vote of confidence.

[Tim Cornelis]

Yeah, but in the overall votes, MHP's previous votes slided to AKP (and in some provinces such as Istanbul and Ankara, CHP).

The more concerning matter is that IP (Worker's party, a nazi organization) is also on the rise due to the fact that CHP cannot satisfy their ultra-nationalist members.

And I think the pictures you've shared are quite misleading. AKP didn't lose the support of the overall masses, the results clearly show that AKP has won the vote of confidence.

I've noticed that 'fascist' in Turkey is even more a meaningless buzzword than elsewhere. Calling the IP a nazi organisation appears utterly unsubstantiated as well. It has horrible politics, but it's not a nazi organisation. Also, it has received 0.25% of the votes, hardly chewed away any of the electorate of the CHP.

[Devrim]

dp

[Devrim]

So apparently I misread. ÖDP and TKP didn't win one seat, but one province.

It is not province. The Turkish word is 'Ilçe', which is more like town than province. It is difficult to translate things exactly because there are different political systems, but Turkey has 81 'vilayet' or 'İl', which is what I would translate as province, and 957 'İlçe', which I would translate as something like the English 'town'.


That's sorta awesome I guess.

I am not quite sure why an anarchist sees this as awesome.


The more concerning matter is that IP (Worker's party, a nazi organization) is also on the rise due to the fact that CHP cannot satisfy their ultra-nationalist members.

Perhaps you could charecterise İP as fascist, but not Nazi. It doesn't really make much sense.

Devrim

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

The more concerning matter is that IP (Worker's party, a nazi organization) is also on the rise due to the fact that CHP cannot satisfy their ultra-nationalist members.

How is the IP a fascist or Nazi organisation (I think the two terms are pretty much synonymous, pace Devrim)? From what I can tell - and bear in mind I'm not exactly an expert on Turkish politics - they seem to be weird nationalist semi-Maoists. They seem to be more like Mengistu than Mussolini to be honest.

[Devrim]

How is the IP a fascist or Nazi organisation (I think the two terms are pretty much synonymous, pace Devrim)? From what I can tell - and bear in mind I'm not exactly an expert on Turkish politics - they seem to be weird nationalist semi-Maoists. They seem to be more like Mengistu than Mussolini to be honest.

I don't think that the two terms are synonymous. I think that Mussolini was a fascist, but I don't think he was a Nazi. I don't think that there are any Nazis today in the same way that there aren't any Bolsheviks. I can understand the term 'neo-Nazi', but I would take it to me the sort of groups obsessed with swastikas and Nazi paraphernalia. To me fascist has a broader meaning. Regardless, none of the nationalists in Turkey have any Nazi imagery.

The word fascist is widely used in Turkish politics. Originally, it was used to describe the MHP, and similar groups. I have also seen it used to describe, at various points by various people, AKP, CHP, and İP.

The Workers' Party was once a Maoist outfit until it decided that Turkey was an 'oppressed nation'. They then started openly collaborating with the 'ultra-nationalist'/'fascist'/whatever you want to call them, MHP, and writing theoretical articles that proclaimed things like "Today there is no left or right, only patriots". I think you could characterise them as fascist. I wouldn't because I think it is a bit of an over used buzzword in Turkish politics, but the cap certainly fits.

Devrim

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

I don't think that the two terms are synonymous. I think that Mussolini was a fascist, but I don't think he was a Nazi. I don't think that there are any Nazis today in the same way that there aren't any Bolsheviks. I can understand the term 'neo-Nazi', but I would take it to me the sort of groups obsessed with swastikas and Nazi paraphernalia. To me fascist has a broader meaning. Regardless, none of the nationalists in Turkey have any Nazi imagery.

The word fascist is widely used in Turkish politics. Originally, it was used to describe the MHP, and similar groups. I have also seen it used to describe, at various points by various people, AKP, CHP, and İP.

The Workers' Party was once a Maoist outfit until it decided that Turkey was an 'oppressed nation'. They then started openly collaborating with the 'ultra-nationalist'/'fascist'/whatever you want to call them, MHP, and writing theoretical articles that proclaimed things like "Today there is no left or right, only patriots". I think you could characterise them as fascist. I wouldn't because I think it is a bit of an over used buzzword in Turkish politics, but the cap certainly fits.

Devrim

I'm curious, what do you see as the chief difference between Nazis and fascists in general? I don't think this is a big political difference, but I'm interested in your perspective.

As for the IP, I see what you mean. It seems my information was hopelessly outdated (and I never meant to defend the IP - they always seemed like an extremely nationalist group). I suppose they're the Turkish equivalent of the Brazilian MR8 group. I don't think they are fascist, but I think fascism requires mass political mobilisation. Proto-fascist, at best (worst?).

[Tim Cornelis]

It is not province. The Turkish word is 'Ilçe', which is more like town than province. It is difficult to translate things exactly because there are different political systems, but Turkey has 81 'vilayet' or 'İl', which is what I would translate as province, and 957 'İlçe', which I would translate as something like the English 'town'.

I was sure I edited to municipality, there's even an edit log below the post, but apparently not.


I am not quite sure why an anarchist sees this as awesome.

Again, I'm not an anarchist. But I presumed that winning a municipality involves between 30-60% of the votes. Having such a percentage of votes and a small leftist enclave is sorta awesome for romantic reasons, not political ones. Hence the 'sorta'.

[revani]

Perhaps you could charecterise İP as fascist, but not Nazi. It doesn't really make much sense.


Yeah, Nazi wasn't the right word for them. Sorry for being careless.

As for them being fascists:

1- They are supported by some capitalists (not the most reactionary as dimitrov would say)
2- Their militants literally attack revolutionaries whenever possible. I had to defend myself and my comrades two times from their attack. They think illegal communist parties are led by CIA.
3- There are rumors that some of their members (in high positions) are secret agents in national intelligence agency
4- They organized campaigns not to buy anything from Kurdish markets (has nothing to do with fascism but still bad :) )
5- Rumors say that they are being trained in martial arts. I cannot confirm that but I should say that no matter how hard you beat an IP member, he/she still can stand up and keep fighting. Fighting against IP members are harder than fighting against police in Turkey.

I don't know if this term is used anywhere outside Turkey but the leftists call IP members "counter-guerilla".


Edit: The rise or fall of IP cannot be deducted from the election results. 108 army members (some of them retired) recently joined IP. I don't think IP will get enough support to perform a coup anytime soon. But still, the stronger they are, the harder they attack revolutionaries.

[Leo]

To answer the original poster, it is currently the coming out that the election was rigged, in unprecedented levels since the 1912 Ottoman elections. I've read that the percentage they got from cheating directly is estimated to be around 5% (although this is not a very radical estimate, I've seen numbers as high as near 10%), putting their apparently impressive 43% to 38%. The mounting evidence point only to an incredibly systematic election fraud. Votes in the ballots were recorded wrong on ballot recordings and the numbers in ballot recordings were recored wrong on the district recordings, the city recordings and so on and so forth. Oppositions votes were written on parties listed near in many cases, or simply for the AKP in others. Also, opposition votes were cancelled in AKP majority areas so as not to draw any suspicion. Many bags full of votes burnt or thrown into the trash were found, with evidence that they've been votes for opposition parties. In some areas, there are claims that hundreds of thousands were directed to vote in locations they don't live in for the AKP. Certain votes from ballots in AKP majority areas were kept to be transferred to areas of danger in case it's too close. There were cuts in electricity in over 40 cities (and there are 81 cities in Turkey): the Minister of Energy and Natural Resources explained the power cuts claiming cats had got in the power distribution units.

Added to all this is the number of votes they've actually bought: there was evidence that AKP was offering people money to go to the ballot with sealed, pre-made, AKP votes and bring back the real voting sheets. Considering the amount of money the Erdogan family keeps in its house, I estimate this counted to about 1% of the vote, on an average of 50 Euroes per voter, costing 20 million Euroes to the AKP. This is a conservative estimate, since Erdoğan has the financial strength to spend up to twice that number. So the real vote AKP got was probably about 36-37%, the lowest they've got since their initial victory.

To be honest it was incredibly professional. The results from AKP strongholds were given to the media almost immediately while the results from opposition strongholds were deliberately held back. There were even incidents where the AKP votes were written wrong in some recordings and other minor details; not only to increase the credibility of the elections, but also to be used as a way to play the victim if things got out of hand. This was the Ocean's Eleven of election frauds.

Nevertheless, it is, if a victory in any way, a Pyrrhic one for the AKP. They know that in reality, they've either lost Istanbul (which is more probable) or it was alarmingly close. They've arranged it so that they've won most apparent "swing" cities and lost close in the few they've lost, but what this actually means is that they were actually significantly behind in cities like Ankara, the capital, Antalya and some others. Especially in Ankara, there is an immense citizen mobilization, many of the more apolotical Gezi activists are spending days without sleep to get the ex-Gray Wolf mayoral candidate of the social-democratic CHP who, apparently, was so far ahead that they still haven't been able to get a result where Gokcek won, despite trying to cheat for four days after the election. The opposition has already won a city and two districts back, and it amy well win back more cities and districts, including Ankara and the religious stronghold Uskudar in Istanbul. It is nearly impossible that AKP will lose Istanbul because the entirety of the electoral fraud can't really be detected, however if they lose lots of apparent swing cities, their strength in Istanbul will lose a lot of credibility.

In his balcony speech, Erdogan didn't look like a victor who'd won an election despite all the scandals. He was quite tense and uncomfortable. Obviously he would have prepared to win without cheating, to really feel the actual majority of the country behind him and he doesn't. Not only does he fear the fact that the Gulenist cult (who had been publishing tapes of Erdogan and his ministers for a few months and who had exposed AKP's electoral fraud plans after getting alarming results in polls) might have a recording of what he's done. Almost all of his powerful enemies within the party (leading figures of the party he's come into conflicts of interests with such as the Bulent Arinc and Abdullah Gul or his old underlings who he's alienated by verbal and physical abuse for real or presumed failures) know what Erdogan and his friends have done and odds are that they have had a feast, gathering recordings and documents against Erdogan during the elections. Hence Erdogan had been silent since the elections and Erdogan's twitter ban has already been reversed.


Again, I'm not an anarchist. But I presumed that winning a municipality involves between 30-60% of the votes. Having such a percentage of votes and a small leftist enclave is sorta awesome for romantic reasons, not political ones. Hence the 'sorta'. These municipalities have been run in a more or less identical way to municipalities held by the social democratic Kemalist CHP and the Kurdish left-nationalist BDP. There is nothing to be excited about.


How is the IP a fascist or Nazi organisation (I think the two terms are pretty much synonymous, pace Devrim)? From what I can tell - and bear in mind I'm not exactly an expert on Turkish politics - they seem to be weird nationalist semi-Maoists. They seem to be more like Mengistu than Mussolini to be honest. I think it is clear that the IP (Workers't Party) can't be considered to be a Nazi organization. There is a group which split off them that actually considers itself to be national socialists who actually openly calls for a genocide against the Kurds and embraces Pan-Turkism as well. They are called the National Party and publish a magazine called the Turkish Left.

The IP, on the other hand, I would say in a semi-Maoist, ultra-Kemalist organization with strong ties to the Turkish state. They have well-established connections with the Chinese Communist Party and the fascistic Third Positionist Eurasianist Movement in Russa. It is true that they've been used against the radical left often, especially in areas the actual fascists (Grey Wolves) themselves are too weak. All these are not identical with being fascists though. Politically, they are still more Stalinists than fascists. They would indeed probably consider themselves to be anti-fascists.

Recently, in Izmir, a Turkish city on the Aegean cost, they attacked the anarchists for damaging a bank together with the Turkish Communist Party in a demonstration.

Currently, there is a strange semi-open alliance between the AKP and the ultra-Kemalist political grouplings including the IP. They are in the process of actually coming out and saying Erdogan is an anti-imperialist. They never surprise. Their followers, on the other hand, are absolutely disgusted of the AKP because of their, well, ultra-Kemalism obviously, so this creates a funny situation. I don't think they are getting any stronger to be honest.

[mxx]

There were riots and heavy clashes in the kurdish city Ceylanpinar (~40000 inhabitants) beause of election fraud by AKP. The mayor of AKP got reelected. They said 700 more people voted for him than for left kurdish party BDP. But BDP found a few thousand burned ballots.
The city is very important for AKP and for BDP because it's near syrian border. Fighters from Al-Nusra and ISIS are in the city and plan attacks on the liberated kurdish part of Syria ("Rojava"). There is also a picture of the AKP mayor (Menderes Atilla) with a commander of Al-Nusra. Both smiling into the camera, carrying a rifle.

[Kurdish-PKK-Communist]

It's a fake election. Absolutaly fake. As Stalin said:

"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/quotes/j/josephstal390697.html)"