Crimea and Sevastopol declare independence and join the Russian Federation

[boiler]

Edit: topic title changed to include discussion on events following the referendum. Original thread title was the article headline. - Sentinel

95.7% of Crimeans in referendum voted to join Russia - preliminary results

Over 95 percent of voters in the Crimean referendum have answered ‘yes’ to the autonomous republic joining Russia and less than 4 percent of the vote participants want the region to remain part of Ukraine, according to preliminary results.

With over 75 percent of the votes already counted, preliminary result show that 95.7 percent of voters said 'yes' to the reunion of the republic with Russia as a constituent unit of the Russian Federation.

The overall voter turnout in the referendum on the status of Crimea is 81,37%, according to the head of the Crimean parliament’s commission on the referendum, Mikhail Malyshev.

The preliminary results of the popular vote were announced during a meeting in the center of Sevastopol, the city that hosts Russia's Black Sea fleet.

Over a half of the Tatars living in the port city took part in the referendum, with the majority of them voting in favor of joining Russia, reports Itar-Tass citing a representative of the Tatar community Lenur Usmanov. About 40% of Crimean Tatars went to polling stations on Sunday, the republic’s prime minister Sergey Aksyonov said.

In Simferopol, the capital of the republic, at least 15,000 have gathered to celebrate the referendum in central Lenin square and people reportedly keep arriving. Demonstrators, waving Russian and Crimean flags, were watching a live concert while waiting for the announcement of preliminary results of the voting.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the citizens of the peninsula have been given an opportunity to freely express their will and exercise their right to self-determination.

http://rt.com/news/crimea-vote-join-russia-210/

[Das war einmal]

Even thought these figures are a bit unbelievable, I do believe it's the wish of the majority of the Crimean population to join the Russian Federation. I don't see why they shouldn't pick their own masters. If I'm correct though, workers rights are worse in Russia then in Ukraine.

[Sasha]

Hahaha, most tatars voted and voted in favour of joining Russia? Pull the other one, it got bells on it. They should really learn that if you are going to cook an ellection (or a referendum in this case) you should cook it at least semi convincingly, even Kim Jong Suns 100% ellection results where more believable than this.
It's pathetic and quite telling if you need to resort to this.

[tallguy]

The USA administration and its cronies have fucked up royally with their public (and almost certain covert) backing of a fascist coup in Ukraine. Instead of being able to portray it to their own populations and the rest of the world as a Ukrainian "Spring" they have, instead been left floundering on the propaganda front and are frantically engaging in double-speak damage limitation. All the while, Putin is laughing his tits off at the perfect excuse to grab a part of Ukraine back into the Russian fold.

[A Psychological Symphony]

Hahaha, most tatars voted and voted in favour of joining Russia? Pull the other one, it got bells on it. They should really learn that if you are going to cook an ellection (or a referendum in this case) you should cook it at least semi convincingly, even Kim Jong Suns 100% ellection results where more believable than this.
It's pathetic and quite telling if you need to resort to this.

Why is it so hard to believe that the Crimean population would want to join the Russian federation over the new Ukrainian regime? 95% seems a little extreme, but I would't say it's necessarily been rigged.

[tallguy]

Hahaha, most tatars voted and voted in favour of joining Russia? Pull the other one, it got bells on it. They should really learn that if you are going to cook an ellection (or a referendum in this case) you should cook it at least semi convincingly, even Kim Jong Suns 100% ellection results where more believable than this.
It's pathetic and quite telling if you need to resort to this.Most of the Crimeans are Russian speakers and of Russian cultural allegiance are they not (about 60%)? Only 12% of Crimeans are Tartars. Of the reminder, there is no reason not to suppose that they did not vote for secession from Ukraine. furthermore, from all that I have read recently, the coup in Kiev, (because that is what it was) was perpetrated by a bunch of fascist thugs and it is by no means clear that even the main Ukrainian population supported that coup.

[synthesis]

It's pretty telling that the turnout rate of the Tatars was less than half of that of the Crimean population as a whole.

[tallguy]

It's pretty telling that the turnout rate of the Tatars was less than half of that of the Crimean population as a whole.
It's probably understandable since (a) their block vote was numerically insufficient to significantly alter the result of the referendum and so (b) they kept their heads down for fear of reprisals given the heated atmosphere.

[Sasha]

10 to 15% of the Crimean population is ethnic Tatar, they would never vote for a anslusch with Russa, neither wouldn't the also sizeable ethnic Ukrainian minority, both groups have publicly stated that they boycotted the referendum because the keep "current autonomy within Ukraine" and "stronger autonomy but within Ukrainex where gutted from the ballot and anslusch to russia was added next to independence. While the results of the referendum might be accurate there is just no way the figures about representativity are true, there was a mass boycott and the fact that RT is lying about it says all that needs to be said about their worth as a source. Zip, zilch, nada.

[tallguy]

10 to 15% of the Crimean population is ethnic Tatar, they would never vote for a anslusch with Russa, neither wouldn't the also sizeable ethnic Ukrainian minority, both groups have publicly stated that they boycotted the referendum because the keep "current autonomy within Ukraine" and "stronger autonomy but within Ukrainex where gutted from the ballot and anslusch to russia was added next to independence. While the results of the referendum might be accurate there is just no way the figures about representativity are true, there was a mass boycott and the fact that RT is lying about it says all that needs to be said about their worth as a source. Zip, zilch, nada.Sasha that's bollocks and you give the distinct impression of having your own particular axe to grind on this. I agree that a significant number of Tartars will not have voted out of fear of reprisals from the wider population. From the look of the numbers, it looks like about half the number of Tartars, per head of ethnicity, voted as opposed to the rest of the Crimean population. However, even if that is factored in to the result, it would still leave a clear majority in the mid 80% region. Obviously, if further news coming out of Ukraine shows the majority to be much lower, then a lack of Tartar turnout would be far more significant. I am prepared to hold final judgement on the result for that reason. But, it is hard to believe that RT would put out a 95% claim unless the result was pretty unambiguous

[Das war einmal]

Hahaha, most tatars voted and voted in favour of joining Russia? Pull the other one, it got bells on it. They should really learn that if you are going to cook an ellection (or a referendum in this case) you should cook it at least semi convincingly, even Kim Jong Suns 100% ellection results where more believable than this.
It's pathetic and quite telling if you need to resort to this.

To be fair, a friend of mine from Kharkov said that there are actually a lot of Krim Tartars who prefer Russia because they have better minority policies then in Ukraine and that they now have better work opportunities and can travel more easily to their relatives in Caucasus.

[Sasha]

Its so funny to see the people who are about paranoid when it comes to the western media drink the RT koolaid, the cognitive dissonance is spectacular.

[adipocere]

10 to 15% of the Crimean population is ethnic Tatar, they would never vote for a anslusch with Russa, neither wouldn't the also sizeable ethnic Ukrainian minority, both groups have publicly stated that they boycotted the referendum because the keep "current autonomy within Ukraine" and "stronger autonomy but within Ukrainex where gutted from the ballot and anslusch to russia was added next to independence. While the results of the referendum might be accurate there is just no way the figures about representativity are true, there was a mass boycott and the fact that RT is lying about it says all that needs to be said about their worth as a source. Zip, zilch, nada.
So then the referendum is not so unbelievable. Even if you assume that 15% boycotted and could be considered various shades of "No" votes..then you get what...80%. That's a huge majority.

[tallguy]

Its so funny to see the people who are about paranoid when it comes to the western media drink the RT koolaid, the cognitive dissonance is spectacular.
Not at all Sash. I don't think Russia or its mouthpiece, RT, are anything other than they are. Large players in a global geopolitical game. I also understand well enough the game that has been played with the referndum question where the Tartar's wish to have a referendum question allowing for staying with the existing Ukrainian government being disallowed. On that i would sya two things; firstly, there is some legitimacy to not allowing for such a question since the government in Kiev was not on the back of some kind of Ukrainian £spring. but was, instead, a military style fascist coup that was more than likely conceived in Washington. Secondly, even putting aside the above, the number of Tartars simply would not have made any significant difference to the result. With regards to your view on how the non Russian Crimeans would have voted, I do not think you are in position to be certain of that given recent events in Kiev. Hell, it is by no means certain if the majority of Ukrainians are in favour of the current fascists in charge in Kiev,.

[Sasha]

I think its very likely that a majority of the voters voted in favour of the anslusch and if there was a mass boycot the result could very well be 95% OF THOSE THAT VOTED. But at max 60% of the ellegible voters probably voted, if they would have said 95% of 60% it would have been remotely believable, now one must wonder why they need to lie about the results, habit or a failure? I don't know, but its bullshit and its pathetic people are falling for it.

[tallguy]

I think its very likely that a majority of the voters voted in favour of the anslusch and if there was a mass boycot the result could very well be 95% OF THOSE THAT VOTED. But at max 60% of the ellegible voters probably voted, if they would have said 95% of 60% it would have been remotely believable, now one must wonder why they need to lie about the results, habit or a failure? I don't know, but its bullshit and its pathetic people are falling for it.The voter turnout has been quoted at 81%. That number is critical, obviously. Given the Tartar population at around 12%, I can understand some scepticism about the 81% claimed turnout given the claimed 95% percent in favour of secession. Other repiorts will no doubt come out over the coming days corroborating or disputing those percentages. I, for one, am going to hold a final judgement in the light of that. The fact that you are not prepared to do so so in such a vociferous way suggests to me you have a blind spot on this issue Sasha

[synthesis]

I think its very likely that a majority of the voters voted in favour of the anslusch and if there was a mass boycot the result could very well be 95% OF THOSE THAT VOTED. But at max 60% of the ellegible voters probably voted, if they would have said 95% of 60% it would have been remotely believable, now one must wonder why they need to lie about the results, habit or a failure? I don't know, but its bullshit and its pathetic people are falling for it.

Where are you getting this 60% figure from? Is that your only basis for claiming that RT has blatantly lied here?

Also, unrelated but I've noticed that a lot of people on this forum don't really know what "cognitive dissonance" means.

[Creative Destruction]

It's not an unbelievable figure when you factor in the fact that the Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians more or less boycotted this vote. That leaves a shitton of ethnic Russians voting in this thing and, of course, they're going to want to succeed to Russia. So, 96% out of the ethnic Russians who have voted so far? I'd believe it.

eta. nevermind. I was confused. The Ukrainians are boycotting the vote, but it looks like the Tatars are, per the OP, turning out to vote for it. There's an official minority association of Tatars in Ukraine that said the Crimean Tatars probably wouldn't participate.

[Das war einmal]

I think its very likely that a majority of the voters voted in favour of the anslusch and if there was a mass boycot the result could very well be 95% OF THOSE THAT VOTED. But at max 60% of the ellegible voters probably voted, if they would have said 95% of 60% it would have been remotely believable, now one must wonder why they need to lie about the results, habit or a failure? I don't know, but its bullshit and its pathetic people are falling for it.

Well if the people who were against this referendum, boycotted it and didn't go out to vote it's pretty obvious that these were the results. Still makes it the majority of the population who desires this annexation.

It doesn't really matter anyway. It's the new administration in Kiev who's at fault here. If they would have shown a little more restraint and waited until the elections then I think this wouldn't have happened in the first place. Putin's reaction was to be expected and he actually couldn't afford to not make use of this opportunity or he would have had a major problem in his own country.

[Red Commissar]

The major Tatar body told its followers to boycott the referendum. It is likely they didn't vote at all. As best I understand it the ballot had two choices- either confirm the legislature's vote to join Russia or revert to its 1993 constitution which is increased autonomy to de facto independence. There was no option for "no" so the Tatar body urged a boycott as neither option was preferable to them as both were tantamount to Russian dominance either locally or Moscow. I believe if you go to their website you can find the official statements to that effect. They likely made up the bulk of the voters that didn't turn out which left the Russian and Russian-speaking Ukrainians to dominate the poll.

[tallguy]

It's not an unbelievable figure when you factor in the fact that the Tatars and ethnic Ukrainians more or less boycotted this vote. That leaves a shitton of ethnic Russians voting in this thing and, of course, they're going to want to succeed to Russia. So, 96% out of the ethnic Russians who have voted so far? I'd believe it.

eta. nevermind. I was confused. The Ukrainians are boycotting the vote, but it looks like the Tatars are, per the OP, turning out to vote for it. There's an official minority association of Tatars in Ukraine that said the Crimean Tatars probably wouldn't participate.I've read a quoted figure of 81% turnout in the context of a 95% vote in favour of secession from Ukraine. That means either:

The turnout was indeed 81%. In which case, pretty much all non tartars must have voted for secession plus a significant number of the tartars (who voted) also voted for secession

or:

The turnout was less than 81%, in which case we have to wait to see how many actually did vote before passing judgement on the validity of the result. Anywhere from 70% upwards and it make little difference. Below around 70% and it starts to make a difference. Particularly if the non voters were found to be primarily Tartars and non Russians.

On the face of it, though, it seems difficult to believe that RT would put out these kind of numbers if the result was anything other than utterly unambiguous. The next few days will tell.

For anyone interested, the demographics of Crimea are:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/76/Distribution_of_ethnic_groups_in_Crimea_2001.png/546px-Distribution_of_ethnic_groups_in_Crimea_2001.png

[PhoenixAsh]

Overall voter turn out was 81,37%

Refat Chubarov was elected in october 2013 with only a narrow margin over the other candidate. Chubarov was protested in his official capacities before his election on numerous occasions for corruption by other Tatar factions....once to such an extend police needed to keep rival factions apart when violence erupted. Chubarov speaks as much for a united Tatar nation as Rutte speaks for a united Holland.

So a division between the Crimean Tatars is very much likely.

[Ritzy Cat]

Given the scene of what's been happening in Ukraine the last few days its fairly obvious there is a majority wanting to secede to Russia. We could hire a bunch of statisticians to calculate a realistic figure but I don't think it matters too much to deal with the intracacies when we have such an obvious leaning towards Russia in Crimea.

My only issue is the options available to voters on the ballot. It was either to leave Ukraine and join Russia, or to go back to the 1992 Constitution or something, which basically gave Crimea more power.

US and friends are sort of at a loss here of course. It doesn't "threaten" Ukraine's sovereignty, I doubt the results of the election were affected by the fact Russia is having fun on Ukrainian borders... I couldn't really give a shit if it didn't comply with Ukraine's constitution. Isn't that the point of why a region would want to secede from its motherland? Because it doesn't really care for being governed by it anymore? Then why should they even acknowledge their Constitution?

It's just a threat to Western powers because Russia will have wider access to the Black Sea, Ukraine, who has been leaning more towards Europe and away from Russia will lose some land.

I hope Putin is having fun. Collect the spoils!

[adipocere]

The voter turnout has been quoted at 81%. That number is critical, obviously. Given the Tartar population at around 12%, I can understand some scepticism about the 81% claimed turnout given the claimed 95% percent in favour of secession. Other repiorts will no doubt come out over the coming days corroborating or disputing those percentages. I, for one, am going to hold a final judgement in the light of that. The fact that you are not prepared to do so so in such a vociferous way suggests to me you have a blind spot on this issue Sasha

I think Sasha/Psycho's blind spot is quite large indeed (http://www.revleft.com/vb/adopt-syrian-revolutionary-t169117/index.html?t=169117&highlight=adopt+syrian).

[RedHal]

95 or 80%, how democratic can it get? How are the US/EU gonna worm their way out of this when they are backing a fascist friendly regime in this. Can even the sleepy American populace see what a farce the US/EU position on this is?

[adipocere]

95 or 80%, how democratic can it get? How are the US/EU gonna worm their way out of this when they are backing a fascist friendly regime in this. Can even the sleepy American populace see what a farce the US/EU position on this is?

I don't think Washington can get out of this. The media is in an uproar with very loud headlines like "Crimeans overwhelmingly vote to secede from Ukraine, join Russia" and "Crimea exit poll: About 93% back Russia union"
If the press breaks free from the pen, Washington generally has to tone down the bullshit, at least for a little while. However, I suspect that Washington is happy as a pig in shit right now because they expect Moscow to accept Crimea as a consolation prize for losing Ukraine to their fascist coup.

[tachosomoza]

Given the scene of what's been happening in Ukraine the last few days its fairly obvious there is a majority wanting to secede to Russia. We could hire a bunch of statisticians to calculate a realistic figure but I don't think it matters too much to deal with the intracacies when we have such an obvious leaning towards Russia in Crimea.

My only issue is the options available to voters on the ballot. It was either to leave Ukraine and join Russia, or to go back to the 1992 Constitution or something, which basically gave Crimea more power.

US and friends are sort of at a loss here of course. It doesn't "threaten" Ukraine's sovereignty, I doubt the results of the election were affected by the fact Russia is having fun on Ukrainian borders... I couldn't really give a shit if it didn't comply with Ukraine's constitution. Isn't that the point of why a region would want to secede from its motherland? Because it doesn't really care for being governed by it anymore? Then why should they even acknowledge their Constitution?

It's just a threat to Western powers because Russia will have wider access to the Black Sea, Ukraine, who has been leaning more towards Europe and away from Russia will lose some land.

I hope Putin is having fun. Collect the spoils!

It's a fairly recent addition to Ukraine's "motherland", Crimea belonged to the Russians for a century before the Soviets gave it to the Ukrainian SSR.

[alakrc]

95.7% of Crimeans in referendum voted to join Russia. Over 95 percent of voters in the Crimean referendum have answered ‘yes’ to the autonomous republic joining Russia and less than 4 percent of the vote participants want the region to remain part of Ukraine,
The overall voter turnout in the referendum on the status of Crimea is 81,37%, according to the head of the Crimean parliament’s commission on the referendum.

This is democracy where you have the right to speak out your wishes.

[Sinister Cultural Marxist]

The vote probably did go to joining Russia, but the numbers are certainly suspect and I think the 40% turnout by Tatars indicates that even if the vote was "democratic" in a majoritarian sense, minority rights are not being taken into consideration in the rush to join Russia


It's a fairly recent addition to Ukraine's "motherland", Crimea belonged to the Russians for a century before the Soviets gave it to the Ukrainian SSR.

Ukraine actually didn't exist as a separate political entity until the Russian Civil War, and Crimea was as much Tatar country as it was Russian prior to the mass forced expulsions by Stalin as collective punishment for some Tatars siding with the Nazis (of course, the Hungarians, Romanians, Fins, and the Germans themselves - populations which all "collaborated" with Hitler - were not shipped to Uzbekistan, but racism and ethnic cleansing often have concerns more practical than ideological)

[PhoenixAsh]

I think it is very important to realize that non if what is going on right now has anything to do with the will of the people. The Crimean vote, though I have no doubt about its representation of majority wish, is just as much a result from colonialist and imperialist attitudes as is the maidan coup against the government.

I would caution jubilation either way and just accept the situation as a continuing development within an imperialist power struggle....where motives are not clearly defined.

Crimea's independence and joining Russia is not necessarily a good development. And judging it in the context of anti fascism is extremely foolish given the nationalist sentiments and import of Russian far right elements. Equally important is to not see it as something positive because it supposedly hurts the EU/US.

[tallguy]

I think it is very important to realize that non if what is going on right now has anything to do with the will of the people. The Crimean vote, though I have no doubt about its representation of majority wish, is just as much a result from colonialist and imperialist attitudes as is the maidan coup against the government.

I would caution jubilation either way and just accept the situation as a continuing development within an imperialist power struggle....where motives are not clearly defined.

Crimea's independence and joining Russia is not necessarily a good development. And judging it in the context of anti fascism is extremely foolish given the nationalist sentiments and import of Russian far right elements. Equally important is to not see it as something positive because it supposedly hurts the EU/US.Yeah, I'd more or less agree with this. There is a large geopolitical game being played. Quite apart from the historically strategic importance of Crimea and greater Ukraine to Russia (being, as it is, on its borders), it is also about the valuable undersea oil and gas reserves off the Crimean peninsula. In terms of global demand, the world is fast approaching the point where the hydrocarbon supply will be no longer able to meet it. At which point, the lights start to go out and all hell breaks loose. Consequently, we are entering a very dangerous phase of international relations. Much of the so-called political "Springs" and various conflicts that have occurred around the world in recent years (many of which have been USA inspired/orchestrated, as it happens) are a part of that unfolding crisis. Ukraine is just the latest chapter.

[Sinister Cultural Marxist]

Yeah, I'd more or less agree with this. There is a large geopolitical game being played. Quite apart from the historically strategic importance of Crimea and greater Ukraine to Russia (being, as it is, on its borders), it is also about the valuable undersea oil and gas reserves off the Crimean peninsula. In terms of global demand, the world is fast approaching the point where the hydrocarbon supply will be no longer able to meet it. At which point, the lights start to go out and all hell breaks loose. Consequently, we are entering a very dangerous phase of international relations. Much of the so-called political "Springs" and various conflicts that have occurred around the world in recent years (many of which have been USA inspired/orchestrated, as it happens) are a part of that unfolding crisis. Ukraine is just the latest chapter.

I think the gas lines that crisscross the Ukraine piping Russian fuel to European play a role too. As much as anything else Crimea is an excellent staging ground to defend those assets.

[Das war einmal]

The vote probably did go to joining Russia, but the numbers are certainly suspect and I think the 40% turnout by Tatars indicates that even if the vote was "democratic" in a majoritarian sense, minority rights are not being taken into consideration in the rush to join Russia



Ukraine actually didn't exist as a separate political entity until the Russian Civil War, and Crimea was as much Tatar country as it was Russian prior to the mass forced expulsions by Stalin as collective punishment for some Tatars siding with the Nazis (of course, the Hungarians, Romanians, Fins, and the Germans themselves - populations which all "collaborated" with Hitler - were not shipped to Uzbekistan, but racism and ethnic cleansing often have concerns more practical than ideological)


I think the collective punishment was supported not only because some Tatars sided with nazi's but also because they used to sell Russians in to slavery before the USSR existed. Not that it's any excuse but this probably contributed in to racist tendencies. Stalin did more of these 'retributions', that's why he's probably more popular with today's Russian population then Lenin was.

[sanpal]

The question to Obama: why you have spent $5 billions on the development of "democracy" in Ukraine but in reality you have spent it on the development of Russian patriotism and as a result on increasing of territory of Russia? (the last russian joke)
(1) Crimeans always (from 1991) dreamed to back to Russia because Ukraine annuled their autonomy. They "back home" and it explain 96% voting.

(2) Crimean Tatars got more rights now (official language, membership in parliament, state structures) than they had in "Ukrain" period) so about 40% of Tatars voted to connect to Russia
(3) the fright caused by arrival of the profascist government in Kiev, ban of the Russian language in Ukraine, dangerousness of civil war, etc.

I'm not surprised with this result of voting

[khad]

(2) Crimean Tatars got more rights now (official language, membership in parliament, state structures) than they had in "Ukrain" period) so about 40% of Tatars voted to connect to Russia
(3) the fright caused by arrival of the profascist government in Kiev, ban of the Russian language in Ukraine, dangerousness of civil war, etc.

I'm not surprised with this result of voting
Tatar has been legalized as an official language in Crimea, something they had been fighting for in Ukraine for the past two decades. There's also a 20% quota of positions for Tatars in the civil service, despite being only 12% of the population.

What have the fascists offered apart from vague promises?

[Sam_b]

Sorry, but calling the Crimea referendum an "Anschluss" is both fucking pathetic and lays bare a complete misunderstanding of politics in the region.


the result could very well be 95% OF THOSE THAT VOTED

No idea why this is in caps as if it's some sort of point, considering both OP and common sense dictates that a 95.7% rate in a referendum is obviously 95.7% approval of those that voted. Any idea that there was some sort of mass boycott is complete fantasy as well. Personally, I think it's more bullshit that you're making assumptions about turnouts and voter patterns that are based in pure speculation and not backed up by any actual statistics whatsoever.

[Sasha]

Yup, pure speculation and not backed up by statistics
Oh, wait;


Polling by the Razumkov Centre in 2008 found that a majority of Crimeans would like Crimea to secede from Ukraine and join Russia (63.8%), and at the same time to preserve its current status, but with expanded powers and rights (53.8%). Razumkov characterized Crimeans' views as confused, unsteady, and sometimes contradictory and therefore vulnerable to internal and external influences. [14] Polling conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in 2013 found that 36% of respondents in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea wanted Ukraine to unite with Russia. A poll by the International Republican Institute in May 2013 found that 67% wanted to remain in Ukraine and 23% wanted unity with Russia. [15]

By early February 2014, just days before the ousting of Viktor Yanukovych, support had risen to 41% in a subsequent KIIS poll. [16][17]

According to a poll conducted by Gfk in the days leading up to the referendum, 70% of Crimeans who intended to participate in the referendum planned to vote to join Russia, while 11% planned to vote to remain part of Ukraine. [18]

According to the 2001 Ukrainian population census, 60.4% of the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea are ethnic Russians, 24.0% are ethnic Ukrainians and 10.2% are Crimean Tatars. In Sevastopol, 71.6% are ethnic Russians and 22.4% are ethnic Ukrainians. [19] 77% of Crimea's and 94% of Sevastopol's population are native speakers ]

[Yet_Another_Boring_Marxist]

Yup, pure speculation and not backed up by statistics
Oh, wait;

So basically this states that approval for reunion with Russia depends on the circumstances and rapidly wanes and waxes. Which would generally conform with these results considering that Ukraine banned Russian as an official minority language (I think the law might have also removed Crimean Tatar but I'd need to look that up), there's an extreme amount of anti-Russian sentiment, and pro-Russian parties have been banned. Seems like the perfect conditions for a massive surge in public opinion leaving Ukraine.

Not that it matters of course, public opinion is irrelevant to whether this move should be supported or not. The only position is of course neutrality.

[adipocere]

Yup, pure speculation and not backed up by statistics
Oh, wait;
But you haven't articulated exactly why you have such an outraged revulsion over what you admit is a probable and foreseeable majority vote. The only other people who are out there expressing huffing indignation are the IMF shocktroopers like Grand Wizard McCain.
I also noticed that the only time you piped up about Ukraine was to post vaguely anti-Russia comments and declare grudging neutrality in the face of an imperial coup and undeniable fascism. I mean, imperial sympathy is not an odd side for you personally to take, considering your stance on the glorious Syrian "revolution".
However, the unconcern with overt, active and armed fascism in Ukraine that took power in a putsch, and your need to draw tenuous, reaching parallels with nationalists in Russia is curious, because in another recent post you suggest that leftists stalk and murder white supremacists over what appears to be an entirely peaceful and rather small, sad rally in NYC.
Because there is nothing concerning about a Southern US Confederate flag, WP and Svoboda flags hung side by side in Kiev city hall. But lets ambush and kill some wp losers in New York, right?
http://31.media.tumblr.com/dda2f247a1bb7a78c9f89f61ae1d8566/tumblr_n1kn3rXmq41r2nar0o1_500.png

[Sam_b]

Yup, pure speculation and not backed up by statistics
Oh, wait;

Yep - no statistics at all in terms of turnout patterns which is what I said pretty clearly above. Also, when you're trying to claim a source it's usually a good idea to actually link to it. It's interesting that you've made no comment about why you feel it's appropriate to call the referendum an "Anschluss", pretty interesting I feel because I don't think you've got a leg to stand on in justifying it, aside from a primitive wikipedia-esque analysis of what's actually happening in Ukraine.

[synthesis]

Yup, pure speculation and not backed up by statistics
Oh, wait;

I'm not sure what you think this proves? Those are polling results done before the election, which even when taken impartially and in the best of circumstances can be very far off the mark, and I think it's very possible that these organizations, particularly the International Republican Institute (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Republican_Institute), could bias the results in terms of how they framed the question and the options they gave the respondents - very similar to how Russia itself moved the goalposts for the voters in the election.

Why do you think it is that the first organization found that ~64% of Crimeans wanted to join with Russia, the second found 36%, the third (IRI, GOP think tank) found 23%, and the last found 70%? And thusly, do you really think that these polls are an acceptable substitute for actual post-election statistics?

[PhoenixAsh]

It is very basic math:

58% is Russian
24% is Ukrainian
12% is Tatar
06% is Other

The election results state 81% turnout with a 95% yes vote.

This means:

1000
1000 * 81% = 0810
0810 * 95% = 769 as the benchmark

1000 * 58% = 580 Russians
1000 * 24% = 240 Ukrainians
1000 * 12% = 120 Tatar
1000 * 06% = 060 Other

A 81% turnout...would require a total of 810 people voting. The ethnic make-up poses difficulties...because simply...there are very different numbers and speculations circling around. From what I gathered from news sources there was a 90% show of ethnic Russians. 80% show of Ukrainians. 40% of Tatars and I have no clue about others...so I am just going to assume 81%.

So there we go...

580 * 90% = 522
240 * 80% = 192
120 * 40% = 048
060 * 81% = 049

Which remarkably is 811.

Given that the turn up of Tatars mentioned in press releases seems to correspond with the division in the Tatar community between pro and anti Russian factions in previous years.
The only real dispute is how the Ukrainians voted....which would have had to been overwhelming in order to get to the 95% number. It is plausible....however...very, very unlikely.

But then again....

...is there anybody here under the illusion that massive media propaganda and the presence of large amounts of "Russian" troops did not sway the results?

[Sam_b]

It is very basic math

Not when you consider that the ethnic, linguistic and cultural identification of the peoples of this region of Europe. Take, for instance, the differences in definition of Russians as ethnic Russians and Russians as primary Russian speakers; the fact that the "other" also contains many that fall into the latter category and so on. I also don't see what you're trying to prove here as this also assumes that a referendum vote would fall across homogenised ethnic lines. Nice ninja edit to try and explain this.

[tallguy]

Not when you consider that the ethnic, linguistic and cultural identification of the peoples of this region of Europe. Take, for instance, the differences in definition of Russians as ethnic Russians and Russians as primary Russian speakers; the fact that the "other" also contains many that fall into the latter category and so on. I also don't see what you're trying to prove here as this also assumes that a referendum vote would fall across homogenised ethnic lines.
What those demographics mean is that, if we accept the referendum numbers of 95% of 81% of the population voting for independence (and we have no reason not to since even the USA has not seriously contested them) and we further conservatively assume a minimum number of tartars voting for independence, then we may makes some reasonable inferences: namely that the vast majority of non tartars must have voted for independence for the numbers to stack up. The only alternative is that they did not vote for independence in such vast numbers, which could only mean that a significant proportion of Tartars voted for it. Either way, the result is utterly unambiguous. The only way to avoid that conclusion is to try and argue that a monumental electoral fraud has taken place. However, there is no credible evidence for such a fraud.

[Sam_b]

Fraud is almost certainly out of the question as the Russian state would doesn't need to doctor what was always going to be a high yes vote. I don't think we can pigeonhole linguistic and cultural identities into a "simple" mathematical algorithm in the study of CEE however as it sets some very dangerous precedents.

[Ethics Gradient, Traitor For All Ages]

Does an occupying military force not have influence on elections? Even if they do not actively engage in voter fraud?

[PhoenixAsh]

The term Anschluss in regards to the situation in Crimea has been used by the Jewish community leader Yaakov Bleich inside the Crimea who have expressed overwhelming concern for pro-Russian antisemitism agitation and likened it to the pre-Anschluss period.

[tallguy]

....The only real dispute is how the Ukrainians voted....which would have had to been overwhelming in order to get to the 95% number. It is plausible....however...very, very unlikely.

But then again....

...is there anybody here under the illusion that massive media propaganda and the presence of large amounts of "Russian" troops did not sway the results?Whilst the Russians vetoed military observers, both they and the Crimeans invited international electoral observers in to monitor the elections. But the USA politically vetoed such an observational team. One can only speculate that the reason was because they knew well enough what the democratic outcome would be and did not want to be placed in a position of having to corroborate and validate that outcome.

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

The term Anschluss in regards to the situation in Crimea has been used by the Jewish community leader Yaakov Bleich inside the Crimea who have expressed overwhelming concern for pro-Russian antisemitism agitation and likened it to the pre-Anschluss period.

Bleich is in Kiev, not Crimea, and while I don't for a minute doubt there is a lot of anti-Semitic sentiment among Russian nationalists, trying to contrast this with the new government in Kiev, partly formed from Banderists and such pleasant fellows, is disingenuous to say the least. What I don't understand is why everyone seems interested in the "legitimacy" of the referendum. To me, the situation is analogous to the referendum concerning the status of the old Saargebiet or Saarprotektorat - whoever wins, the proletariat loses.

[PhoenixAsh]

Not when you consider that the ethnic, linguistic and cultural identification of the peoples of this region of Europe. Take, for instance, the differences in definition of Russians as ethnic Russians and Russians as primary Russian speakers; the fact that the "other" also contains many that fall into the latter category and so on. I also don't see what you're trying to prove here as this also assumes that a referendum vote would fall across homogenised ethnic lines. Nice ninja edit to try and explain this.

Since the edit mark shows up under the post I hardly see how this could be ninja...the numbers would only plausibly add up if you account for a 100% turn up. Which obviously isn't the case and I had to correct the numbers accordingly.

I have been there...a lot. So I know something about the region and its diversity. I am guessing you haven't been there quite as often. So do not presume to be able to lecture me on how the regions ethnic and linguistic divide falls while in the same time underhandedly accuse me of some stealthy obfuscation.

The fact remains that the numbers do not add up because they HAVE to fall across ethnic lines in overwhelming numbers which does not reflect recent reality on the ground...nor the sentiments I experienced regardless of the situation in Kiev.

Though statistically plausible...there is also reality to consider. Whether you like it or not. There is no way possible in which the fast majority of the ethnic Ukrainians is going to vote for abandoning the Ukraine.

[Sam_b]

The term Anschluss in regards to the situation in Crimea has been used by the Jewish community leader Yaakov Bleich inside the Crimea who have expressed overwhelming concern for pro-Russian antisemitism agitation and likened it to the pre-Anschluss period.

And that makes it okay, right? If it's the same report as in the JTA then you'll notice the difference between likening something to an event, and calling it by the historial name. No words, I see, on the amounts of anti-semitic attacks and such by certain fascist elements in the Maidan.

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

Though statistically plausible...there is also reality to consider. Whether you like it or not. There is no way possible in which the fast majority of the ethnic Ukrainians is going to vote for abandoning the Ukraine.

Why not, though? The underlying assumption seems to be that people are going to vote as ethnic blocs, which just doesn't work, particularly considering the prominent east-west regional divide in the Ukraine.

[PhoenixAsh]

Bleich is in Kiev, not Crimea, and while I don't for a minute doubt there is a lot of anti-Semitic sentiment among Russian nationalists, trying to contrast this with the new government in Kiev, partly formed from Banderists and such pleasant fellows, is disingenuous to say the least. What I don't understand is why everyone seems interested in the "legitimacy" of the referendum. To me, the situation is analogous to the referendum concerning the status of the old Saargebiet or Saarprotektorat - whoever wins, the proletariat loses.

I hardly think it is disingenuous. I think it shows a very clear concern for the fact that antisemitism and fascistic ultra-nationalism plays on both sides of the divide. Something which I argued a few weeks ago when a lot of people were trying to portray the Russians as some anti-fascist intervention force. They clearly aren't. It just has been downplayed/ignored/overlooked in the RevLeft debates.

That the proletariat suffers is a given. Which if you would have followed my posts is exactly my argument from start to finish of the conflict. A few posts above I clearly stated that the secession of the Crimea shouldn't be seen as something that is necessarily positive. A position by the way I have been arguing from the start of the debate...heck...I even argued a similar line when the maidan protests where still raging.

But the jubilation over current referendum, which is incomprehensible...applauding the deliverance of an entire regions working class fro one imperialist power to the other...is beyond me and needs to be addressed.

[Sasha]

But you haven't articulated exactly why you have such an outraged revulsion over what you admit is a probable and foreseeable majority vote. The only other people who are out there expressing huffing indignation are the IMF shocktroopers like Grand Wizard McCain.
I also noticed that the only time you piped up about Ukraine was to post vaguely anti-Russia comments and declare grudging neutrality in the face of an imperial coup and undeniable fascism. I mean, imperial sympathy is not an odd side for you personally to take, considering your stance on the glorious Syrian "revolution".
However, the unconcern with overt, active and armed fascism in Ukraine that took power in a putsch, and your need to draw tenuous, reaching parallels with nationalists in Russia is curious, because in another recent post you suggest that leftists stalk and murder white supremacists over what appears to be an entirely peaceful and rather small, sad rally in NYC.
Because there is nothing concerning about a Southern US Confederate flag, WP and Svoboda flags hung side by side in Kiev city hall. But lets ambush and kill some wp losers in New York, right?
http://31.media.tumblr.com/dda2f247a1bb7a78c9f89f61ae1d8566/tumblr_n1kn3rXmq41r2nar0o1_500.png

My outraged revulsion is over the mindboggingly hypocrisy of the supposed leftists here, I care little for who exactly rules the Crimean, I'm an communist, I'm an anarchist, im an inter-nationalist and an anti-nationalist. I don't care for borders and nationstates and teratorial integraty. If Russia wants to steal the Crimean they are going to do that and its best if as little as possible workers get killed. But it disgusts me that the people who are the first to ***** about Kosovo are now cheering Russia doing the exact same thing. That the people who heep every western journalist one a big conspiracy pile swallow blatant propaganda lies happily because it vindicates their rallying behind just another bourgeois imperial war machine. That people who post picture after picture of a whitepower cross in Kiev ignore that Russia is welcoming and arming Serb and Cossack fascist millitia's in the Crimean. Who complain about right-sector manning roadblocks but when the Chetnics do it under the watchful eyes of the Russian army its all fine. Who complain if there are fash at mass popular uprisings but keep quite if in russia anti war anarchist/communist demonstrators get kidnapped and tortured by fash. And to top it all of the ethnic cleansing of the Crimean by the USSR is blatantly excused. I have outraged revulsion about that because you are the people who will excuse it in the exact same way if it happens tomorrow again. and you dare to call me a hypocrite and a imperial puppet? Fuck off, you all are a cancer leeching on the communist movement.

[tallguy]

...Though statistically plausible...there is also reality to consider. Whether you like it or not. There is no way possible in which the fast majority of the ethnic Ukrainians is going to vote for abandoning the Ukraine.You are not in a position to say that with such certainty. It is at least possible that the Ukrainian population in the Crimea are sufficiently Russia-oriented in their outlook (given the heavily Russian-influenced culture there), plus also have sufficient disgust across all ethnic groups at the fascist coup that has taken place in recent weeks in Kiev to have voted in those numbers. I don't actually know this of course. I'm just speculating. However, given the numbers in that referendum and given the lack of serious disputation of them by even the USA, I think my speculation has a bit more veracity than one of truly monumental electoral fraud.

[Sam_b]

are the first to ***** about Kosovo

I hope as an admin this is not supposed to be gendered language.

This post, aside from being a complete outburst, adds nothing to the debate aside from quoting a post, which may be misguided, but still has serious questions raised about the nature of Svoboda, the street situation in Kyiv, and so forth. One of the big problems that has emerged out of the situation amongst both the left and academia is that people asking certain questions are automatically assumed to be either on the Maidan side or the Russian side and this is both problematic and polarising. I don't think support for a referendum and wishes to be respected necessitates support for the politics of Russia, who have been pretty disgraceful during this; but at the same time as has the US and the European Union.


Fuck off, you all are a cancer leeching on the communist movement.

This is also pretty outrageous to be honest.

[tallguy]

....it it disgusts me that the people who are the first to ***** about Kosovo are now cheering Russia doing the exact same thing....Can you quote anyone on this thread who has "cheered" Russia’s involvement in the Crimea over the recent period?

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

I hardly think it is disingenuous. I think it shows a very clear concern for the fact that antisemitism and fascistic ultra-nationalism plays on both sides of the divide. Something which I argued a few weeks ago when a lot of people were trying to portray the Russians as some anti-fascist intervention force. They clearly aren't. It just has been downplayed/ignored/overlooked in the RevLeft debates.

That the proletariat suffers is a given. Which if you would have followed my posts is exactly my argument from start to finish of the conflict. A few posts above I clearly stated that the secession of the Crimea shouldn't be seen as something that is necessarily positive. A position by the way I have been arguing from the start of the debate...heck...I even argued a similar line when the maidan protests where still raging.

But the jubilation over current referendum, which is incomprehensible...applauding the deliverance of an entire regions working class fro one imperialist power to the other...is beyond me and needs to be addressed.

What "jubilation"? Sure, nationalist "socialists" are basically creaming their pants right now, and the local national-titoist rag published an orgasmic account of the Victory of the Forces of Good in Crimea, but I haven't seen anything even resembling jubilation on RevLeft, not even from the usual suspects. Unless you think that everyone who disputes handwaving about the referendum results is jubilantly celebrating the same results.

[PhoenixAsh]

And that makes it okay, right? If it's the same report as in the JTA then you'll notice the difference between likening something to an event, and calling it by the historial name. No words, I see, on the amounts of anti-semitic attacks and such by certain fascist elements in the Maidan.

Seeing as I was the first, if not one of the first, to post on this board about the Jewish communities concern in Kiev and the increase in antisemitism...you don't seem to have much of a point.

I am not going to debate semantics on this because using the term anschluss is not my position nor is it my opinion. But it has been used quite a lot by the Jewish community in the Ukraine and I do understand the huge amount of similarities.

[Sam_b]

Seeing as I was the first, if not one of the first, to post on this board about the Jewish communities concern in Kiev and the increase in antisemitism...you don't seem to have much of a point.

Because as a post earlier on, directed at yourself by another user, explains, the situation in Crimea is altogether different from Ukraine. It's also a completely different set of events leading up to this point that are significantly different from the Anschluss.


I do understand the huge amount of similarities.

Please address what these similarities are.

[PhoenixAsh]

You are not in a position to say that with such certainty. It is at least possible that the Ukrainian population in the Crimea are sufficiently Russianised in their outlook (given the heavily Russian-influenced culture there), plus also have sufficient disgust at the fascist coup that has taken place in recent weeks in Kiev to have voted in those numbers. I don't actually know this of course. I'm just speculating. However, given the numbers in that referendum and given the lack of serious disputation of them by even the USA, I think my speculation has a bit more veracity than one of truly monumental electoral fraud.

I am not talking electoral fraud but rather the complete and utter domination of media propaganda, blackouts and intimidation and fear mongering among the population.

[Ann Egg]

I am not talking electoral fraud but rather the complete and utter domination of media propaganda, blackouts and intimidation and fear mongering among the population.
Precisely, mate. When Hitler annexed East Austria, he first turned the East Austrian population pro-Hitler by falsely claiming that West Austria is being overrun by fascists.

[tallguy]

I am not talking electoral fraud but rather the complete and utter domination of media propaganda, blackouts and intimidation and fear mongering among the population.
Well, I guess we would have known that for sure, wouldn't we, if only the Yanks hadn't politically vetoed Russia and Crimea's invitation to have an international electoral observational team go in to monitor the referendum.

Now why do you suppose the USA did that?

[tallguy]

Precisely, mate. When Hitler annexed East Austria, he first turned the East Austrian population pro-Hitler by falsely claiming that West Austria is being overrun by fascists.So, you are suggesting that the current Kiev administration is not dominated by extreme right-winders and self proclaimed fascists?

[Sam_b]

Did the majority of Austrians want to unify with Germany for over fifty years though?

[Sasha]

Precisely, mate. When Hitler annexed East Austria, he first turned the East Austrian population pro-Hitler by falsely claiming that West Austria is being overrun by fascists.

Why do you think people are using the term? Hitlers troops where cheering marching in to Vienna, unopposed completely by the austrian military, they where heralded as bringing Austria back in the motherlands lap. An voluntairly joining because of ethnic brotherhood,The paralels are staggering and either people are way to scared to Godwin even when its actually relevant or they have way to much symphaty for whats happening.

[Sam_b]

The paralels are staggering and either people are way to scared to Godwin even when its actually relevant or they have way to much symphaty for whats happening.

Because there's a big difference between authoritarianism and fascism and they should know better.

[PhoenixAsh]

Because as a post earlier on, directed at yourself by another user, explains, the situation in Crimea is altogether different from Ukraine.

I was actually addressing your allegations of no mention of antisemitism in the maidan. But nice cover up.


It's also a completely different set of events leading up to this point that are significantly different from the Anschluss.

Again...could you point out where exactly I said it was an anschluss or where I denied that the events are different?


Please address what these similarities are.

Serious? Not even you can be that dense.

[PhoenixAsh]

Well, I guess we would have known that for sure, wouldn't we, if only the Yanks hadn't politically vetoed Russia and Crimea's invitation to have an international electoral observational team go in to monitor the referendum.

Now why do you suppose the USA did that?

This is not a question of whether the USA did that or not. The situation, as I stated previously, is a power play between imperialist factions and what the stakes, agenda's and goals are is unclear.

Why do you assume that it isn't the desired outcome to shift Crimea to Russia? Because of some lame ass sanctions against some people....most of which have no foreign assets? Or the trumped up rhetoric? Maybe this is all already completely negotiated and the pieces are just now moved through the motions. Who knows?

[Anglo-Saxon Philistine]

This thread has been Anschluss-ed to apparently long-simmering personal disputes.

I still haven't seen any "jubilation", though. All I see is people completely losing it whenever anyone refers to the referendum as anything but an evil Nazi plot. Like, you know, a normal referendum, which takes place in a bourgeois democracy and doesn't accurately reflect the objective interest of the proletariat, but the dominant ideology, which always includes a healthy dollop of nationalist nonsense?

I don't know why people assume that referenda are either frauds or good and holy.

[Ethics Gradient, Traitor For All Ages]

This thread has been Anschluss-ed to apparently long-simmering personal disputes.

I still haven't seen any "jubilation", though. All I see is people completely losing it whenever anyone refers to the referendum as anything but an evil Nazi plot. Like, you know, a normal referendum, which takes place in a bourgeois democracy and doesn't accurately reflect the objective interest of the proletariat, but the dominant ideology, which always includes a healthy dollop of nationalist nonsense?

I don't know why people assume that referenda are either frauds or good and holy.

I think some may be taking their skepticism too far, but a referendum held on the brink of civil/regional war, with no "no" option, while the population is being occupied by a foreign military force who will not officially acknowledge their presence, is not a normal referendum.

[Sam_b]

Again...could you point out where exactly I said it was an anschluss or where I denied that the events are different?

You didn't. I am referring to your posts which justified and explained its usage.


Serious? Not even you can be that dense.

I am very interested, in particular because authoritarianism is not fascism (unlike what our anti-fascism moderator may say) and the different historical connotations. Were Austrians calling for incorporation into Germany fifty years before things came to a head? Did Germany have an established military and political presence in Austria for fifty years prior to the Anschluss? Was Austria subservant to Germany in the the period of the 19th and early 20th centuries? Basically, the term is only used on the grounds of anti-semitism and imperialism, and Russia is imperialist yes, but I don't think this in itself is enough grounds at all.

This is very much how I was hearing comparisons to Crimea and the Warsaw Pact occupation of Czechoslovakia in 1968, again something that doesn't hold water.

[tallguy]

This thread has been Anschluss-ed to apparently long-simmering personal disputes.

I still haven't seen any "jubilation", though. All I see is people completely losing it whenever anyone refers to the referendum as anything but an evil Nazi plot. Like, you know, a normal referendum, which takes place in a bourgeois democracy and doesn't accurately reflect the objective interest of the proletariat, but the dominant ideology, which always includes a healthy dollop of nationalist nonsense?

I don't know why people assume that referenda are either frauds or good and holy.I don't think that dichotomy is a valid representation of the posts on this thread. I don't think anyone has argued that (a) there is not a larger geopolitical game being played here and (b) that the referendum is "good and holy". At least one or more posters, however, have been more than slightly hysterical/disingenuous in terms of portraying the referendum results as fraudulent.

[PhoenixAsh]

You didn't. I am referring to your posts which justified and explained its usage.

Good you acknowledge that.


I am very interested, in particular because authoritarianism is not fascism (unlike what our anti-fascism moderator may say) and the different historical connotations. Were Austrians calling for incorporation into Germany fifty years before things came to a head? Did Germany have an established military and political presence in Austria for fifty years prior to the Anschluss? Was Austria subservant to Germany in the the period of the 19th and early 20th centuries? Basically, the term is only used on the grounds of anti-semitism and imperialism, and Russia is imperialist yes, but I don't think this in itself is enough grounds at all.

This is very much how I was hearing comparisons to Crimea and the Warsaw Pact occupation of Czechoslovakia in 1968, again something that doesn't hold water.

Historically any situation is different from any that has come before it or will come after it. Based on all factors that will lead up to something can never be entirely reproduced. History cannot in fact repeat itself. So we are more or less of the same opinion.

And I am also in agreement with you that the term is used because it holds certain connotations. Which imo is quite understandable but nevertheless can also obfuscate a correct analysis of what is going on. For these reasons I wouldn't use the term myself, nor would I agree on it being akin to it.

But from a jewish perspective...I can definitely understand its use given the surges of antisemitism in both the Ukraine and Crimea. Antisemitism is once agian, after an initial increase in the 90's and a sharp decline in the last four years, a huge factor in Russian daily life and violence against Jews is still very much an issue and was on the rise again....but it also permeates daily life and the media. Skoibeda is a name that pops in mind as a recent example. but the presence of Russian groups with a deep rooted antisemitism like to Cossack ect...doesn't really bode well either. So given the treatment of Jews before and immediately after the Anschluss...I can understand the comparison from that perspective.

That said there are other general similarities....the military presence before a referendum. The media propaganda. The huge % votes. The requested intervention.

none of it alike. None of it really justifying the term. But enough to create understanding for the use of it.

[tallguy]

This is not a question of whether the USA did that or not. The situation, as I stated previously, is a power play between imperialist factions and what the stakes, agenda's and goals are is unclear.

Why do you assume that it isn't the desired outcome to shift Crimea to Russia? Because of some lame ass sanctions against some people....most of which have no foreign assets? Or the trumped up rhetoric? Maybe this is all already completely negotiated and the pieces are just now moved through the motions. Who knows?
Oh, I think it may be at least possible that the West has deliberately engineered losing the Crimea in order to fully incorporate the rest of Ukraine. I see no obvious evidence for it, but I do understand the logic of the argument. However, it seems to me you have subtly moved the goalposts a few times in this thread from implying that electoral fraud has taken place to implying that people have been expressing some kind of inappropriate jubilation on this thread, to now suggesting that people on this thread are naively unaware of the larger geopolitical machinations. It seems to me that the only consistent feature of your arguments has been to sow doubt as to the veracity of the massive majority will of the Crimeans in that referendum. Which, notwithstanding all of those above issues, is utterly unambiguous.

[synthesis]

This thread has certainly been educational. I can't see it being more than an hour or two before half of it disappears into the hidden trashcan.

edit: This post was written before half of it did in fact disappear into the hidden trashcan.

[PhoenixAsh]

Oh, I think it may be at least possible that the West has deliberately engineered losing the Crimea in order to fully incorporate the rest of Ukraine. I see no obvious evidence for it, but I do understand the logic of the argument. However, it seems to me you have subtly moved the goalposts a few times in this thread from implying that electoral fraud has taken place to implying that people have been expressing some kind of inappropriate jubilation on this thread, to now suggesting that people on this thread are naively unaware of the larger geopolitical machinations. It seems to me that the only consistent feature of your arguments has been to sow doubt as to the veracity of the massive majority will of the Crimeans in that referendum. Which, notwithstanding all of those above issues, is utterly unambiguous.

O I seriously question the results. I have no doubt it is a majority result. But I doubt the numbers and they do not add up. Here is how I worded it:


Given that the turn up of Tatars mentioned in press releases seems to correspond with the division in the Tatar community between pro and anti Russian factions in previous years.
The only real dispute is how the Ukrainians voted....which would have had to been overwhelming in order to get to the 95% number. It is plausible....however...very, very unlikely.

But then again....

...is there anybody here under the illusion that massive media propaganda and the presence of large amounts of "Russian" troops did not sway the results?

Emphasize added.

Now...since the vote pretty much has to overwhelmingly fall over ethnic divides to conjure up those numbers....this would mean that ethnicity hasn't played a factor which is pretty much unbelievable since in 2013 ethnicity and discrimination was a big issue in south east Ukraine including Crimea...and Ukrainian nationalism was a pretty big issue there. I do not doubt that recent events swayed opinions. But a total 180 of such a majority of the population is pretty much "unique" to say the least.

Most of the news we are receiving is through Russian news media. Which...and that is something Sasha has also mentioned in this thread are somehow taken as more credible on the issue than other media and seem to be taken without much concern for the obvious bias.

Now as for those observers...you are aware of part of those 135 observers coming from FPO, FN and other right wing parties right? Not all of them...but most of them are the ones cited by RT and other Russian outlets for their fair assessment.

But you are right about the term jubilant and that obviously was a wrong word choice. I was kind of busy getting annoyed by Sam. But in the posts 23 through 27 there seems to be a general approval going on and unquestioningly believing the numbers and news from Russian sources. I was more referring to the unquestioning acceptance of Russion media portrayals of events as true (<<--- this last line is what I edited in later...I am obvious in pointing this out...so I won't be accused of "ninja" editing in the future since editing posts and correcting mistakes seems to be somewhat of a crime these days)

[Sasha]

Oh, I think it may be at least possible that the West has deliberately engineered losing the Crimea in order to fully incorporate the rest of Ukraine. I see no obvious evidence for it, but I do understand the logic of the argument. However, it seems to me you have subtly moved the goalposts a few times in this thread from implying that electoral fraud has taken place to implying that people have been expressing some kind of inappropriate jubilation on this thread, to now suggesting that people on this thread are naively unaware of the larger geopolitical machinations. It seems to me that the only consistent feature of your arguments has been to sow doubt as to the veracity of the massive majority will of the Crimeans in that referendum. Which, notwithstanding all of those above issues, is utterly unambiguous.

Again people give Putin a lot less credit than they should, all round douchebaggery and geopolitical messing about is something all parties are well capable off.
But yeah, the sad thing is, if the Ukrainian (ethnic) nationalists would be smart they would give the Crimean on a silver platter with a bow tie on top to Russia, losing those millions of ethnic Russian voters would swing the elections finally permanently in their favour. But nationalist are going to nationalist I guess.
Us is not to wonder why, us is just to do and die.

[synthesis]

But yeah, the sad thing is, if the Ukrainian (ethnic) nationalists would be smart they would give the Crimean on a silver platter with a bow tie on top to Russia, losing those millions of ethnic Russian voters would swing the elections finally permanently in their favour. But nationalist are going to nationalist I guess.

They have to put up a fight or else it weakens their positions in future negotiations. It's like any divorce settlement, really.

[Sentinel]

This is a general verbal warning, any more violations of the rules will be infracted.

I removed the worst flames, personal attacks, offtopic stuff and referrals to discussions in private sections of the board from this thread. Hopefully the discussion on this crucially important world event can continue undisturbed from now on.

I've also edited the thread title to also include discussions on the events following the referendum, namely Crimea formally joining the Russian Federation and the shooting of the Ukrainian soldier today, Putins reply to the western sanctions, and whatever else may happen next.

[Halert]

Is it really interesting to us if either the ukrainian or russian bourgoeisie rules crimea? Is it really relevant to us if either crimea was annexed through force or through liberal democracy?
The questions we have to ask our self is the how do do we make the proletarian class stronger and more united in this time of bourgeoisie fighting each other.

I also don't really understand why we need to make the comparison between Hitlers annexation of parts of Austrian with the annexation of Crimea. Compering Hitler with someone makes it sound like they are fascist and Putin is a lot of bad things but not a fascist.

[AmilcarCabral]

The 60 thousand potential police force will not be able to control the Ukrainian populace when the food lines start. The chain reaction of one blast after another joining Russia has just started. One Ukrainian military unit after another will join Russia's effort for a new government in the Ukraine, obvious the desertion has already started.

Merkel is playing the line with Israel. She knows Putin controls the oil and gas, and Cameron is complaining like a chicken about UK sanctions. After the E.U imposes austerity on the Ukraine the rest of the country will probably be willing to join Russia too. The ultra-right wing nazis won't last very long in power in Ukraine


.







Edit: topic title changed to include discussion on events following the referendum. Original thread title was the article headline. - Sentinel

95.7% of Crimeans in referendum voted to join Russia - preliminary results

Over 95 percent of voters in the Crimean referendum have answered ‘yes’ to the autonomous republic joining Russia and less than 4 percent of the vote participants want the region to remain part of Ukraine, according to preliminary results.

With over 75 percent of the votes already counted, preliminary result show that 95.7 percent of voters said 'yes' to the reunion of the republic with Russia as a constituent unit of the Russian Federation.

The overall voter turnout in the referendum on the status of Crimea is 81,37%, according to the head of the Crimean parliament’s commission on the referendum, Mikhail Malyshev.

The preliminary results of the popular vote were announced during a meeting in the center of Sevastopol, the city that hosts Russia's Black Sea fleet.

Over a half of the Tatars living in the port city took part in the referendum, with the majority of them voting in favor of joining Russia, reports Itar-Tass citing a representative of the Tatar community Lenur Usmanov. About 40% of Crimean Tatars went to polling stations on Sunday, the republic’s prime minister Sergey Aksyonov said.

In Simferopol, the capital of the republic, at least 15,000 have gathered to celebrate the referendum in central Lenin square and people reportedly keep arriving. Demonstrators, waving Russian and Crimean flags, were watching a live concert while waiting for the announcement of preliminary results of the voting.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the citizens of the peninsula have been given an opportunity to freely express their will and exercise their right to self-determination.

http://rt.com/news/crimea-vote-join-russia-210/

[Sasha]

Dispatch from Ukraine: "We Do Not Want to Live in a Country Which Marches Its Army Into a Neighboring Territory Without Permission"

Posted by Brendan Kiley (http://www.thestranger.com/seattle/brendan-kiley/Author?oid=1124) on Tue, Mar 18, 2014 at 6:13 PM

Chris Collison has been sending dispatches from Ukraine in the past several weeks, from the popular rebellion against a kleptocrat (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/02/21/another-dispatch-from-kiev) to the surprise Russian invasion. (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/03/01/russia-is-invading-ukraine)
Here's his report for JN1 TV (http://jn1.tv/), if you're curious to see video from Crimea a few days ago. (Shortly after filming, he wrote (http://www.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/03/12/dispatch-from-crimea&view=comments): "A group of Russian supporters berated me and Vasya while we were doing a report, calling us fascists and liars. I told them we were working for a Jewish news channel. It didn’t matter. We were still fascists. The irony was completely lost.")
I wonder where those bold protesters from FEMEN, the Ukrainian feminist activists who made a scene in front of the regional Crimean parliament two weeks ago (http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/03/06/sanctions-progress-but-not-much-else-in-the-russia-ukraine-standoff) and were dragged into police vans by Cossacks, are now.
Today also saw the funeral of a 38 year-old human rights activist, a Crimean Tatar, who was dragged off by pro-Russian "self-defense" forces in Simferopol earlier this month. (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/ametov-murdered-crimean-tatar-called-first-victim-of-russian-occupation-339911.html%3Cbr%20/%3E) His body, which was found in the village of Zemlyanichnoye, showed signs of torture.
Yesterday, I emailed Collison asking about the situation in Kiev after the hastily cobbled-together Crimean referendum (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/europe/crimea-vote-does-not-offer-choice-of-status-quo.html) deciding whether the region would (a) join Russia formally, or (b) break away from the rest of Ukraine and join Russia de facto.
Collison writes:

Things in Kyiv are more or less back to normal, as far as the revolution is concerned. The shops have reopened, the cafes are full again, and there even seem to be some new places opening up. My friends and I have a theory that the interim authorities went ahead and approved a bunch of applications that had been held up in the insane bureaucracy. It's notoriously difficult to open or operate a restaurant or business in Ukraine if you don't have connections with the oligarchs or powers that be. Maybe that is changing? Wishful thinking? Hard to say.
On the other hand, everyone is on edge about the situation in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. No one here in Kyiv recognizes the "referendum" that was held over the weekend. People are scared that Russia is going to keep pushing westward. It seems unlikely, but Ukrainians are preparing. Reserves have been called up, and people are getting ready for war.
Even my strident pacifist friends say they are ready to fight if it comes to it. My friend Z told me last night that he has friends throughout Russia, and that it's hard for him to comprehend war, but if it comes to it he is ready to go. That seems to be the general mood. Most people have some connection to Russia, but at the same time they feel betrayed and threatened. Putin seems to be alienating an entire generation of people who belong to a country with some of the closest cultural ties to Russia of any other place in the world.

I think a lot of people will leave Crimea, especially Ukrainians. What happens now puts a lot of people in the position where they have to choose between two countries. What does it mean if you choose Ukrainian citizenship? I'd like look into what it means as far as property ownership, working rights, etc. to see how that changes. If Russia goes ahead with taking the territory, it also raises the question of what to do with all of the Ukrainian troops on bases throughout the peninsula. No one is surrendering yet, so the threat of armed conflict is still very real. One Ukrainian soldier was killed earlier today.
It will be interesting to see what Putin actually does with Crimea. It looks like he is ready to absorb it into Russia, but there is also a possibility that it could become frozen like Transnistria in Moldova or Abkhazia in Georgia. Moscow seems intent on actually making the territory part of Russia rather than a breakaway republic, so it looks like things will move forward. But if Abkhazia or Transnistria are any indication, the area is in for tough economic times. It's difficult to do business in either of those territories, not just due to corruption but because it's hard to attract investment, development, or even European backpackers to a disputed territory. Crimea's economy depends a lot on tourism, and it's hard to imagine a booming beach scene this spring or summer. I'm sure RT will have a piece in a few months about how Yalta is full of happy tourists since Crimea was returned home, but I wouldn't believe it.
While the referendum is clearly a joke, there are a lot of Russians there who want Crimea to return to Russia. They will stay, and maybe more Russians will move in. As an outsider, I don't see anything wrong with independence for Crimea if that is what people want, but this is the worst possible way to do it.
If Russia really wanted to take Crimea back, why not let Crimea hold a legal and fair vote? Scotland is holding a referendum on independence in a few months, but they have had well over a year to work out the details, campaign, hold a public debate, work with authorities in London, and go through the democratic process. Why can't that happen here? Why send in soldiers? Why scare everyone? Why rush through a bogus referendum two weeks after coming up with the idea?
I'm afraid we're going to find out.
As a side note, Russian anarchists in Petrozavodsk have reported that activists who planned a relatively modest demonstration against the annexation of Crimea—alongside their regularly scheduled Food Not Bombs (http://www.foodnotbombs.net/) meal giveaway—were kidnapped by masked men, driven into the forest, and severely beaten with police batons. (http://325.nostate.net/?p=9810#more-9810)



http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2014/03/18/dispatch-from-ukraine-we-do-not-want-to-live-in-a-country-which-marches-its-army-into-a-neighboring-territory-without-permission#more

[Sasha]

here is the video that belongs with the article above (the board doesnt let me edit it in for some reason); AzihbP7La9o
if armed fash with shields and foreign ethnic militias on the streets of kiev during an complete breakdown of the established order where so shocking to you i wonder what you think of the same happening in Crimea under the watchful eye of the Russian army

[sanpal]

... and the shooting of the Ukrainian soldier today, ...

Sasha:

One Ukrainian soldier was killed earlier today.

If to be more exact: one Ukrainian soldier was shot and the second soldier was wounded in the territory of military unit, and near this military unit at the same time one person from forces of self-defense of the Crimea was shot and one more is wounded. The place was defined is a building under construction near the military unit, from where the unknown sniper shot at the Ukrainian soldiers and at people from forces of self-defense of the Crimea, it is probable for the purpose of armed conflict provocation between the Ukrainian armies and forces of self-defense of the Crimea. Similar to the Maidan scenario. The sniper disappeared and wasn't caught.

[Raquin]

ITT: Sasha is so delusional he thinks Cossacks are "fash". Obviously that's why Cossacks played such a great role in the Civil War on the side of the communists. And clearly that's why 50 Cossack divisions opposed Hitler during the Great Patriotic War.

Look at these disgusting fascists:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/KubanCossacks1945.jpg

Shit, I wanna puke. Fucking fash.

[Hrafn]

ITT: Sasha is so delusional he thinks Cossacks are "fash". Obviously that's why Cossacks played such a great role in the Civil War on the side of the communists. And clearly that's why 50 Cossack divisions opposed Hitler during the Great Patriotic War.

Look a these disgusting fascists:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/KubanCossacks1945.jpg

You're stuck in the past. The modern Kuban Cossacks, who are the ones engaged in Crimea, are quite clearly not Bolshevik anti-Fascists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuban_Cossacks#Modern_Kuban_Cossacks

[tachosomoza]

You're stuck in the past. The modern Kuban Cossacks, who are the ones engaged in Crimea, are quite clearly not Bolshevik anti-Fascists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuban_Cossacks#Modern_Kuban_Cossacks

If I recall correctly, these were the same that formed the Cossack police forces that were whipping people during the Olympics.

[tachosomoza]

Pardon my ignorance, but it's my understanding that Crimea gets most of it's base utilities from Ukraine. If they become independent how do they plan to receive this as one would imagine these services will be cut?

They're not becoming independent, they're joining Russia.

[Sinister Cultural Marxist]

ITT: Sasha is so delusional he thinks Cossacks are "fash". Obviously that's why Cossacks played such a great role in the Civil War on the side of the communists. And clearly that's why 50 Cossack divisions opposed Hitler during the Great Patriotic War.


A cossack fighting Nazis is not exactly the same as a cossack fighting to realize a "Greater Russia".

Also while some Cossacks did join the Revolution, many also created or joined White armies motivated by the desire to crush the Bolsheviks

[tachosomoza]

I meant becoming independent from Ukrainian control. Regardless, will they now begin to receive all their necessities (in regards to basic utilities) from Russia?

Ummm...yes? That's what happens when you're part of a country.

[Hrafn]

Ummm...yes? That's what happens when you're part of a country.

I believe there have been some commentary in the news about how Russia will need to invest massive amounts to get the party started, so to speak. Not to mention probably build a bridge to the mainland, unless they either plan on conquering the rest of Eastern Ukraine or handling everything by plane/boat, which is rough in today's world of infrastructure and transportation.

[Sasha]

ITT: Sasha is so delusional he thinks Cossacks are "fash". Obviously that's why Cossacks played such a great role in the Civil War on the side of the communists. And clearly that's why 50 Cossack divisions opposed Hitler during the Great Patriotic War.

Look at these disgusting fascists:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/KubanCossacks1945.jpg

Shit, I wanna puke. Fucking fash.


You're stuck in the past. The modern Kuban Cossacks, who are the ones engaged in Crimea, are quite clearly not Bolshevik anti-Fascists.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuban_Cossacks#Modern_Kuban_Cossacks


If I recall correctly, these were the same that formed the Cossack police forces that were whipping people during the Olympics.

Dont forgot their good tradition of bloody pogroms for decades... But hey, they once picked the lesser evil side in a bourgeois war so they are the good guys period.

[DOOM]

It's funny how Russia's accusing the ukrainian government of fascism. Like if Russia's the great anti-fascist warrior.
Or have you guys forgotten how Russia just recently passed a homophobic law? How national minorities are treated like shit? How there's no real freedom of speech, how actual leftists have to live in fear whenever they're criticizing mother Russia?
Duh.

[Rurkel]

As SCM noted, during the Russian Civil War the Cossacks were divided. Those who joined the Whites (upper stratas of Cossackry, mosty) were later prone to collaborating with Hitler (e.g. Shkuro, Krasnov, to the extent the latter was a Cossack).

[Das war einmal]

A very good analysis of the Washington Post explaining Russia's behavior. By treating the Russians as losers of the cold war and taking every opportunity to disgrace them further (by annexing former USSR countries and eastern bloc countries by NATO), the US are responsible for a reinvigorated Russian nationalism. http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/who-is-the-bully-the-united-states-has-treated-russia-like-a-loser-since-the-cold-war/2014/03/14/b0868882-aa06-11e3-8599-ce7295b6851c_story.html

[Comrade Jacob]

I'm not sure how correct the result is and I'm not a huge fan of expansionism but if that's the case I guess that's what the 'people' want.

[Comrade Raymund]

Eh it's just that Crimea is applying to be part of the Russian Federation, but even if Putin accepts the request, America is using it's Economic powers to make Russia suffer, just like if Britain cut off America's supply lines before WWII. Maybe America understands the geopolitical importance of Ukraine and also wants it but "befriends" Ukraine by giving aid to the Ukraine Gov.

[Hrafn]

Eh it's just that Crimea is applying to be part of the Russian Federation, but even if Putin accepts the request, America is using it's Economic powers to make Russia suffer, just like if Britain cut off America's supply lines before WWII. Maybe America understands the geopolitical importance of Ukraine and also wants it but "befriends" Ukraine by giving aid to the Ukraine Gov.

You're a bit behind on the news. Crimea is now a part of Russia.

[RedHal]

I'm not sure how correct the result is and I'm not a huge fan of expansionism but if that's the case I guess that's what the 'people' want.

not sure it's a Russian expansionism, it's more of Russian trying to stop Nato expansionism and losing it's important Sevastopol naval dock. Just look at a map of Nato expansionism after the fall of the USSR!

Putin is using anti fascist rhetoric like the US uses the rhetoric of freedom and democracy lol