Political Predictions for 2014

[The Idler]

Political Predictions for 2014? Another Occupy movement?

[bricolage]

certainly some people think that, (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/dec/27/political-protest-networked-age-edward-snowden)

Despite this, the analyst group Gartner earlier this year, predicted "a larger-scale version of an Occupy Wall Street–type movement will begin by the end of 2014".
personally I'm not so sure.

I think we'll see a continued beating down of living standards coupled with enormous state repression and increasing unpredictable ecological variables, I think we'll continue to see a mainstream labour movement torn between inaction and set-piece affairs and I think we'll see a mainstream left with not much stake for itself tailgating whatever it can.

in contrast to this I don't know. I imagine there will remain sporadic rioting in various places, a number of regimes will be placed under threat and/or fall due to popular pressure but this isn't to say what replaces them will be any better. I think there will be some cases where moderate social movements collide with workers insurrection and enter a whole world of possibility... on the other hand they might just crash and burn.

but really we have no idea. predictions are pointless and in most cases history is made by actors who have no idea of what they are about to do. we (including myself) should probably spend less time making predictions and more time thinking about how we might relate to these actors if and when they emerge.

[Comrade Jacob]

I may be overly optimistic but I think that the Nepalese and Bolivarian revolutions will advance greatly. Maybe even the Naxals will continue strong and grow, we'll just have to see.

[GerrardWinstanley]

This isn't quite a prediction, but I can see the next important revolutionary advance emerging in the least expected places, as if out of nowhere (as it did in Tunisia in late 2010/early 2011... not to mention huge gains made by the Syrian Kurds while all eyes were elsewhere in the country) and there is no reason this shouldn't happen as soon as within the next year. The global South is a political tempest, where the status quo is vulnerable to relatively minor changes and this volatility is likely to intensify as the crisis of capitalism deepens.

[Tim Cornelis]

I may be overly optimistic but I think that the Nepalese and Bolivarian revolutions will advance greatly. Maybe even the Naxals will continue strong and grow, we'll just have to see.

I couldn't disagree more. This isn't even political or sectarianism.


The Nepalese Maoists have not shown to have taken steps beyond 'New Democracy' (class collaborationist capital management) nor indicated any desire to do so in the short-term, so there is no reason to assume they will in 2014. Have they pushed Nepal away from semi-feudalism in just a few short years? This was their objective and they certainly have not achieved it.

The Bolivarian Revolution is confronted with the limits of social policy by capital, which is called "economic mismanagement." Increasing inflation, price controls leading to shortages, empty stores, declining popular support, etc. There is no reason to assume this will reverse in 2014, no visible trends suggest so. I predict the first losses for the PSUV.*

The Naxals have stagnated if not declined judging by their activity.


*Except there aren't any elections in 2014.

[hatzel]

I may be overly optimistic but I think that the Nepalese and Bolivarian revolutions will advance greatly. Maybe even the Naxals will continue strong and grow, we'll just have to see.

How much of this is an actual prediction of what will happen and how much of it is just you saying things you think would be cool?

[RedWaves]

In America it will be more of the same. Obamacare shoved in every corner of the media while republicans constantly argue it. The same old "our country is run by a Muslim dictator" will pop up.

[Venas Abiertas]

certainly
but really we have no idea. predictions are pointless and in most cases history is made by actors who have no idea of what they are about to do. we (including myself) should probably spend less time making predictions and more time thinking about how we might relate to these actors if and when they emerge.

What he said.

When the 1917 February Revolution in Russia overthrew the Czar, Lenin was in Switzerland writing pamphlets and waiting for the German workers to revolt and Trotsky was in New York City writing articles in Yiddish for a local paper. To both men's credit, when the monarchy fell they high-tailed it back to Russia to see what they could do, and succeeded in taking the revolution away from the bourgeoisie.