Nicolas Maduro wins Venezuela presidential election

[dez]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22149202

Socialist candidate Nicolas Maduro has won a narrow victory in Venezuela's presidential poll.
Mr Maduro, who was chosen by the late Hugo Chavez as his successor, won 50.7% of the vote against 49.1% for opposition candidate Henrique Capriles.

[VDS]

I'm actually surprised. I thought the Chavistas would have been apathetic in this election. And I REALLY thought that the whole him talking to Chavez in the form of a bird thing would have been the final nail in the coffin. Well, suppose Maduro is better than Capriles.

[RHIZOMES]

I'm not surprised at all - this proves the movement is bigger than just Chavez.

Since Chavez, even if you may disagree with his policies, the fact that he's enfranchised millions of the Venezuelan poor means it was very unlikely the Venezuelan right had a chance of actually winning.

[Crux]

I'm surprised it's by such a small margin, given that Maduro had a comfortable lead in the polls.

[B5C]

I'm surprised it's by such a small margin, given that Maduro had a comfortable lead in the polls.

This maybe due to the low turn out.

[Q]

This maybe due to the low turn out.

How is a turnout of 80% low?

But yeah, 50.7% against 49.1% is a really narrow margin.

[B5C]

How is a turnout of 80% low?


I believe this election was much lower from I heard from the reports. I am double checking.

UPDATE: According to Wikipedia:

Turnout: 74.71% (Still better than US standards)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_presidential_election,_2013

[Red Commissar]

I can't wait for the Venezuelan emigres to start complaining about how their country made a stupid choice again. Or accuse it of rigging the vote. Or both.

That being said it's not good for Maduro that he came away with a narrow margin here, considering his previous polling.

[Le Socialiste]

Not surprised at all. What I am surprised by is how close the race was.


I'm not surprised at all - this proves the movement is bigger than just Chavez.

Since Chavez, even if you may disagree with his policies, the fact that he's enfranchised millions of the Venezuelan poor means it was very unlikely the Venezuelan right had a chance of actually winning.

I agree completely. I was initially worried about the future of the movement (the fact that Chavez's death had such a major impact points to some of its core weaknesses), but this electoral win indicates that the struggle has the potential and room to grow - and continue on.

[Popular Front of Judea]

... and Capriles says he doesn't accept the election results. Surprise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22149202

[ComradeYoldas]

Some people in my university are complaining that he isn't fit to run a country due to his lack of education and also because he previously worked as a bus driver. This angers me to a point where what they are spewing is pure bullshit. Because he drives a bus, he isn't fit to run a country? On the one hand these same people say you should work in the "unskilled" jobs and work your way up, this guy does it, but opposes you therefore he's a scumbag?

Fuck off, capitalist scum.

[VDS]

... and Capriles says he doesn't accept the election results. Surprise.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-22149202

It's funny, Maduros camp was saying well before the results were even counted that they'd accept victory or defeat, even if by a single vote. Capriles seems to following the international trend amongst the right. Lost or losing? SHENANIGANS!

[Red Commissar]

Anyone see how some person claiming connection with lulzec took down some internet sites related to Maduro and the PSUV?

http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/8624


At the same time, Nicolas Maduro's Twitter account, as well as the PSUV's one, were hacked. The hacking, rude and making fun of the candidate, has been done by someone registered as "Lulzsecperu". Also, there has been some opposition led violence in Sucre, Miranda state.

Mind the English, but you can find it mentioned in other articles too.

[Die Neue Zeit]

I was initially worried about the future of the movement (the fact that Chavez's death had such a major impact points to some of its core weaknesses), but this electoral win indicates that the struggle has the potential and room to grow - and continue on.

Isn't anybody here worried about the impact of this low turnout? Low turnout => Smaller margin => Overly conciliatory policies while in office.


How is a turnout of 80% low?

But yeah, 50.7% against 49.1% is a really narrow margin.

To top it off, compare Capriles' electoral support of 6.6 million votes against Chavez against 7.3 million votes now.

[Popular Front of Judea]

How much you want to bet there was a hurried call from Capriles to the US embassy?

[Raúl Duke]

I can't wait for the Venezuelan emigres to start complaining about how their country made a stupid choice again. Or accuse it of rigging the vote. Or both.

That being said it's not good for Maduro that he came away with a narrow margin here, considering his previous polling.

They started quite early. I already seen some claims about election fraud being bandied about.

I find their opposition quite odd. It's not like they're getting the kind of treatment that the Cuban emigres got post-Cuban Revolution so I they just seem like a bunch of overly entitled whiners. (Although these days, I guess due to the crazy political environment they created in Miami, Cuban emigres talk a lot of shit: the most laughable notion is that once "Castro/PCC is gone, we can go back and regain our stuff" which sounds like a naive notion. That's one similarity with these right-wing emigres, they have such an immature/naive understanding of politics.)

Then again, many of these Venezuelan emigre are from a rather bourgie background; something I don't share with them so I can't really understand where they're coming from.

[RedHal]

the narrow win is very worrying, it was obvious the opposition was emboldened after Chavez' death. Maduro is going to have a tough time if he expects to stay in power and continue the Bolivarean revolution, he needs to be more radical than Chavez if he wants to keep the Chavistas fighting on his side.

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

I'm surprised it was by such a small margin. On the other side, however, he's still won, and this gives him a mandate; the next election result will be determined, amongst other things, by what he does over the next few years. It's up to Maduro now, and to a certain extent it's up to the whole chavista movement, too.

[La Guaneña]

Really tight margin there, makes things kind of dangerous.


They are already crying fraud, but when even the OEA and other international organs say that it was ok like the other times, they'll shut up like the other times. Hopefully.

[black magick hustla]

btw, capriles program was essentially identical to lula's left wing neoliberalsim (in fact, he claimed to be inspired by it). the opposition to chavez isn't as different as you think. Also, chavez' opposition isn't necessarily "big money". In fact, a big faction of the venezuelan expats (i know a few of them) where oil workers that where fired in the 2002-2003 oil general strike (and subsequently blacklisted, they can't get jobs in venezuela anymore, like one of my best friend's family). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_general_strike_of_2002–2003

it's not as simple as "right wing money" vs "let wing poor". both of them have a complicated class composition, with the left wing including the so called bolibourgeosie. but as always, leftists gonna left and are gonna tail the alternatives of capital management that they find aesthetically appealing.

[Crux]

btw, capriles program was essentially identical to lula's left wing neoliberalsim (in fact, he claimed to be inspired by it). the opposition to chavez isn't as different as you think.
The operational term being claimed to, Lula after all endorsed Chavez in the last election. The right has realized that they cannot campaign on their own program if they want to have any chance of winning back power. In fact there was a bit of a scandal, with a few parties resigning from the right wing coalition, after the real plans (http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7198) of the biggest right wing parties were leaked.
The existance of a boli-bourgeoisie does not "complicate" away the fundamental nature of the right wing opposition. Using left sounding phrases is nothing new for the old ruling class in Venezuela at all. Indeed the Perez government immediatly preceding Chavez, also used that fine old tactic of campaigning from the left, ruling from the right. I may not be a Chavista, but you've got to see the MUD for what they are and not be fooled by any rhetoric they might use. There most certainly is a world of difference between the MUD and the chavistas, no matter the vacilliations and flaws of the latter.

[one10]

Let's hope Maduro can execute like Chavez did. He's got big shoes to fill.

[Luís Henrique]

btw, capriles program was essentially identical to lula's left wing neoliberalsim (in fact, he claimed to be inspired by it).

Yeah, I believe in that. And in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny. Nay, those are easy, I believe in the Great Pumpkin who visits sincere pumpkin patches in the Eve of Halloween.

José Serra himself tried to sell the idea that he was the actual guy to continue Lula's programs, and that Dilma Roussef would "betray" Lula. Do we believe that too?

Luís Henrique

[hatzel]

PSUV haemorrhaging support to MUD, internet leftists expecting Maduro to respond by being some revolutionary flame in the dark rather than capitulating entirely to the demands of the ever-swelling opposition lol what else is new?

[Die Neue Zeit]

In fact, a big faction of the venezuelan expats (i know a few of them) where oil workers that where fired in the 2002-2003 oil general strike (and subsequently blacklisted, they can't get jobs in venezuela anymore, like one of my best friend's family). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_general_strike_of_2002–2003

Come on! We all know that "strike" was a management "strike." Didn't your friend hold a management position in PDVSA? :glare:

[l'Enfermé]

Ahahahahaha the glorious revolution wasn't even able to muster a lead of more than 230,000 votes in a country of 30 million people.

[KurtFF8]

PSUV haemorrhaging support to MUD, internet leftists expecting Maduro to respond by being some revolutionary flame in the dark rather than capitulating entirely to the demands of the ever-swelling opposition lol what else is new?

Well Maduro is from a left wing grouping in the PSUV, visited the Communist Party's convention early on in the campaign, etc.

He's certainly posturing towards the Left in a very explicit way. The real question isn't necessarily whether he "means it" or not, but rather if he will be able to execute a more "revolutionary" program than Chavez.

The opposition will claim more of a mandate to be a legitimate opposition regardless of the outcome of it's calls for a recount. The PSUV could easily still divide, etc.

There are a bunch of variables at play here, so to dismiss (or blindly be optimistic) are both a little "too soon" at this point.


Ahahahahaha the glorious revolution wasn't even able to muster a lead of more than 230,000 votes in a country of 30 million people.

How on Earth that can be something that a Leftist can take joy in mocking at this moment is beyond me. It's a clear signal that the Left in Venezuela is more divided and the Right has gained (albeit perhaps less than the Western media is portraying) some support amongst even working class segments of Venezuela. This should be a trend that should concern the Left, not be an opportunity to for some reason gloat about.

[Vanilla]

The small margin is really concerning... but Capriles seems like such a sore loser, from that article.


Shortly afterwards, Mr Capriles emerged, angry and defiant.

"It is the government that has been defeated," he said. Then, addressing Mr Maduro directly, he said: "The biggest loser today is you. The people don't love you."



With the right like that, good luck to Maduro accomplishing anything.

[Orange Juche]

Loving (/sarcasm - fucking hating) how articles on the topic are referring to Chavez's time in office as his "rule" and Maduro's new "rule". Just like how they refer to Jimmy Carter's 4 year rule, or George W. Bush's 8 year rule. :rolleyes:

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

Ahahahahaha the glorious revolution wasn't even able to muster a lead of more than 230,000 votes in a country of 30 million people.

Seriously, you mod this forum and make posts like that?

As someone above said, it should be a cause for concern that more people are voting for right-wing assholes like Capriles, not a cause for celebration. Why would you be gloating at this result? I'm not sure that Maduro, like Chavez, will effect any move leftwards, but that really shouldn't be what we're expecting. Rather, with Maduro and the chavistas controlling state power, it makes it easier for localised movements to take more power, via local/regional councils, workplace councils etc., as has been done over the past few years.

There is certainly a point that can be reached with Maduro et al. whereby the working class will say 'enough is enough', especially if, going forward, they block moves for more working class political control. However, I don't think that point was reached with this election. With recent events, it was important that the opposition didn't win this election, and they haven't, yet you're gloating at...the chavistas? :confused::confused::confused:

[one10]

Ahahahahaha the glorious revolution wasn't even able to muster a lead of more than 230,000 votes in a country of 30 million people.

This is not a laughing matter.

I for one believe that an armed struggle is the most effective way of successfully overthrowing the ruling class and maintaining a revolution, but I would never mock or make fun of other leftist movements attempting to do so by other means.

The results of these elections prove that the right is united and has a strong presence in Venezuela. Due to these circumstances, it is vital that the left put minor ideological differences aside and find a common purpose to center their efforts around. The exploited, oppressed, and impoverished people of Venezuela have no time for bickering amongst the left. They must act now and worry about their differences later.

[black magick hustla]

Come on! We all know that "strike" was a management "strike." Didn't your friend hold a management position in PDVSA? :glare:
right. 40% of the total oil employees were fired. I'm sure about half of the total employees in oil are management :rolleyes:

[Le Socialiste]

Isn't anybody here worried about the impact of this low turnout? Low turnout => Smaller margin => Overly conciliatory policies while in office.

Of course, but we should be watching how the Venezuelan working and toiling classes interact with Maduro. It's important to watch how Maduro functions while in office, but its doubly so to keep a look out for and observe how the movement changes in the aftermath of Chavez's death. At this juncture, it can either crumble or split into competing factions in the absence of the so-called 'glue' that arguably held it together, or it can begin taking a greater initiative in spearheading the general focus and trajectory of the struggle, leading to greater independence and experiential consciousness.

[black magick hustla]

Yeah, I believe in that. And in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny. Nay, those are easy, I believe in the Great Pumpkin who visits sincere pumpkin patches in the Eve of Halloween.


Um, I don't know why it's that hard to believe? Politicians are pragmatic people, the right wing cannot really stay in power without capitulating to some of the chavistas. Your hero Lula completely capitulated to the IMF and the big imperial powers and still made leftists happy at the same time...

[black magick hustla]

The operational term being claimed to, Lula after all endorsed Chavez in the last election. The right has realized that they cannot campaign on their own program if they want to have any chance of winning back power. In fact there was a bit of a scandal, with a few parties resigning from the right wing coalition, after the real plans (http://venezuelanalysis.com/news/7198) of the biggest right wing parties were leaked.

Leftists have been enacting austerity all around the globe. The policy paper points out very reasonable economic pressures for that. Do you think the chavistas will be able to avoid doing that? Yeah right, chavistas have magic powers

[black magick hustla]

Seriously, you mod this forum and make posts like that?


ooooh be careful....you blasphemed against left wing l'enferme sacrosant princpiles, thou should not question the imaginary internet support of politicians that manage countries thousands of miles away....this is a serious matter!!!

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

Leftists have been enacting austerity all around the globe. The policy paper points out very reasonable economic pressures for that. Do you think the chavistas will be able to avoid doing that? Yeah right, chavistas have magic powers

Being left isn't some solid concept. A person doesn't embody being 'left' or 'Socialist', just like a worker can become a capitalist and vice versa. So clearly, people enacting austerity are only leftists like Tony Blair is leftist.

[Crabbensmasher]

I'm not sure whether taking a conciliatory stance will favour his popularity, or whether a more radical stance is better. Obviously, there were some Venezuelans who became disillusioned after Chavez's death and have since begun voted Capriles. The only thing that this alludes to is that there are a lot of Chavez loyalists. It doesn't really speak for the popularity of the left or even Bolivarianism at all.
So for his survival, either Maduro adopts a hyper-populist agenda really quickly, or he finds out what agenda allegiances belong to, and follow that.

One of my theories of why Capriles garnered so many votes is because of his previous statements defending the Chavez reforms. If I'm correct, I believed he promised to protect Chavez's legacy and defend his social programs on multiple occasions. This is coupled with his tough on crime-agenda, an immensely popular sentiment among the urban poor. So yeah, he essentially stole votes from Chavez's core supporters by offering something more urgent; safety. Given the situation on the streets of Venezuela right now, people were probably desperate enough to give in.

[black magick hustla]

MUD politicians claim that the "real capriles program" leaked document is fake. (this doesn't mean i think that, just posting something in opposition to crixus)

http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/09/09/mud-senala-que-documento-que-presenta-chavez-como-programa-de-gobierno-de-la-unidad-es-falso

[l'Enfermé]

Seriously, you mod this forum and make posts like that?
At least I don't flame in your forum (http://www.revleft.com/vb/showpost.php?p=2587726&postcount=147) ;)1


As someone above said, it should be a cause for concern that more people are voting for right-wing assholes like Capriles, not a cause for celebration. Why would you be gloating at this result? I'm not sure that Maduro, like Chavez, will effect any move leftwards, but that really shouldn't be what we're expecting. Rather, with Maduro and the chavistas controlling state power, it makes it easier for localised movements to take more power, via local/regional councils, workplace councils etc., as has been done over the past few years.

There is certainly a point that can be reached with Maduro et al. whereby the working class will say 'enough is enough', especially if, going forward, they block moves for more working class political control. However, I don't think that point was reached with this election. With recent events, it was important that the opposition didn't win this election, and they haven't, yet you're gloating at...the chavistas? :confused::confused::confused:Boo hoo that shitbag l'Enfermé is being mean to reformists, what an awful motherfucker let's hang him.


This is not a laughing matter.

I for one believe that an armed struggle is the most effective way of successfully overthrowing the ruling class and maintaining a revolution, but I would never mock or make fun of other leftist movements attempting to do so by other means.

The results of these elections prove that the right is united and has a strong presence in Venezuela. Due to these circumstances, it is vital that the left put minor ideological differences aside and find a common purpose to center their efforts around. The exploited, oppressed, and impoverished people of Venezuela have no time for bickering amongst the left. They must act now and worry about their differences later.
What revolution mate? We've seen 14 years of Chavez renouncing revolutionary socialism in favour of reformism, and we're gonna see more of this same bullshit from Maduro.



How on Earth that can be something that a Leftist can take joy in mocking at this moment is beyond me. It's a clear signal that the Left in Venezuela is more divided and the Right has gained (albeit perhaps less than the Western media is portraying) some support amongst even working class segments of Venezuela. This should be a trend that should concern the Left, not be an opportunity to for some reason gloat about.
"The left in Venezuela"? If "the left", in your definition, includes a gang of nationalist anti-revolutionary reformists who take inspiration from a 19th century Latin American Bonopartist, I, as a Marxist, want absolutely nothing to do with it.

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

At least I don't flame in your forum (http://www.revleft.com/vb/showpost.php?p=2587726&postcount=147) ;)1

I wasn't flaming. If I had, you'd have warned me. But you know I was being deadly serious and not flaming, so you didn't.


Boo hoo that shitbag l'Enfermé is being mean to reformists, what an awful motherfucker let's hang him.

That's a simplification of the matter at hand.

[Crux]

Leftists have been enacting austerity all around the globe. The policy paper points out very reasonable economic pressures for that. Do you think the chavistas will be able to avoid doing that? Yeah right, chavistas have magic powers
Quit blowing my mind with this brand new information.
You keep fighting that straw man.

So, now you genuinely believe the MUD have adopted any kind of left wing program...?

[black magick hustla]

Quit blowing my mind with this brand new information.
You keep fighting that straw man.

So, now you genuinely believe the MUD have adopted any kind of left wing program...?

i don't really care. i don't think at the end of the day it's really going to be that different. i'm just annoyed with all the leftists from far away countries lining behind some strongman caudillo strikebreaker with their imaginary internet support.

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

i'm just annoyed with all the leftists from far away countries lining behind some strongman caudillo strikebreaker with their imaginary internet support.

why's that any different to those people being annoyed with some leftist from a far away country lining up to cut down same said guy.

Especially when nobody has really equated this guy with communism (obviously), just commenting that his election is welcome against some caballo mierda cabron like capriles.

[DoCt SPARTAN]

My question is will he represent so called "21st century socialism" in a positive way.

[La Guaneña]

Yeah, let's just laugh at the US backed right wing gaining space in another Latin American country again! I mean, look at how many times that this brought up ripe conditions for revolutions!!!!!!!

[vizzek]

im so glad they elected someone that will align with the imperialists in moscow and tehran rather than the ones in washington.

[Paul Pott]

Chavismo's golden days are behind it.


imperialists in moscow

A genuine concern for the working class of Venezuela, as is Chinese imperialism. And the increasing domination of South America by Brazilian capital, which Venezuela is very tight with.


tehran

bahahaha

[Rafiq]

Um, I don't know why it's that hard to believe? Politicians are pragmatic people, the right wing cannot really stay in power without capitulating to some of the chavistas. Your hero Lula completely capitulated to the IMF and the big imperial powers and still made leftists happy at the same time...

the problem is that the benchmark for the ' political spectrum' changed dramatically after Chavez. Like how because (and this is a confusing example) of the strength of the proletariat during the 60's even the right wing factions of the bourgeoisie supported welfare state, and after the destruction of proletarian power the social dems became neoliberals. chavez was bourgeois, but when you grab the ruling class by the balls they will change their standards. when you let go, theyll bite you in the ass.

Sent from my SPH-D710 using Tapatalk 2

[Crux]

i don't really care. i don't think at the end of the day it's really going to be that different. i'm just annoyed with all the leftists from far away countries lining behind some strongman caudillo strikebreaker with their imaginary internet support.
A bold claim. But I suppose you don't really care enough whether it's actually accurate enough so attempting to discuss this with you will probably be boring and fruitless.

[Die Neue Zeit]

What revolution mate? We've seen 14 years of Chavez renouncing revolutionary socialism in favour of reformism, and we're gonna see more of this same bullshit from Maduro.

"The left in Venezuela"? If "the left", in your definition, includes a gang of nationalist anti-revolutionary reformists who take inspiration from a 19th century Latin American Bonopartist, I, as a Marxist, want absolutely nothing to do with it.

The best chance was the 2007 referendum, but there was no sincere follow-up to it.

[G-Dogg]

I see nobody mentioned the recent 40% devaluation of the Venezuelan currency with its effects on inflation and purchasing-power as one of the reasons Maduro lost popular support in this election...

[Luís Henrique]

Um, I don't know why it's that hard to believe? Politicians are pragmatic people, the right wing cannot really stay in power without capitulating to some of the chavistas.

Venezuela itself has the relevant experience, Carlos Andrés Perez's paquetazo.

The right wing cannot really stay in power without capitulating to the Chavistas? Perhaps, but the Venezuelan right wings wants to revert Chavez's policies; that is their programatic unity, it is for that that it stands. And while politicians are pragmatic, they are usually programatic, too. The point is, the Venezuelan right may acknowledge that they cannot stay in power if they immediately revert everything that Chávez has done. But they also know that staying in power is not worth the pain if they don't use such power to revert everythign Chávez has done, even if it takes a long time to achieve it.


Your hero Lula completely capitulated to the IMF and the big imperial powers and still made leftists happy at the same time...

Well, no, that is a simplistic and amateurish analysis.

Luís Henrique

[Luís Henrique]

On the famous PDVSA "strike", it is widely know that it was a management scheme. Arguing that 40% of PDVSA's work force was fired as a result of the strike doesn't seem to me to prove - even if true - that it was a bottom up rank-and-file movement. A typical taylorist company has about 25% of its work force in management, if we count the low-level bosses as such. The PDVSA had its management sector quite probably, if anything, somewhat overmanned, due to the traditional use of its hierarchy as a way to satisfy the economic needs of the COPEI/AD clientels. And evidently, even a boss-oriented "strike" or, more precisely saying, a lock out, could have enlisted the support of minority of rank-and-file workers, why not?

Luís Henrique