Post Chavez Venezuela

[LeonJWilliams]

I had a look via the 'search' button for a thread like this but I couldn't find one.

With Hugo Chavez seemingly struggling to recover from cancer what does this mean for Venezuela?

I would really like to get peoples perspectives on what will happen in Venezuela if/when Chavez dies.

Thanks

The Guardian is writing this (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/02/hugo-chavez-cancer-venezuela-president).

[Brutus]

I Think it will go to shit

[TheEmancipator]

American intervention is almost guaranteed in a time of instability. One of their stooges will win the election, declare most of Chavez's establishment illegal and several arrests will be made.

Some things never change.

[KurtFF8]

A lot of it really depends on internal developments in the PSUV and its ability to not turn in on itself in the event that Chavez's absence leaves a sort of "power vacuum."

Now the opposition and international (mostly Western) media is pointing to this potential vacuum, but I'm not sure about that. It's also likely that the Party will unite behind Madur, but only time will tell really.

[La Guaneña]

We'll just have to wait, and see how strong his relationship with the urban proletariat and the campesinos are.

US intervention will surely continue to happen, propably stronger than now, the question is if the current power structure will hold up.


We have to remember that he armed a fuckload of militias, so I don't think a coup attempt would go unresponded.

[Crabbensmasher]

You can tell that Maduro is desperately trying to prevent that power vacuum. I don't think anybody would've recognized his face just half a year ago, but now that Chavez's health falters, he's trying to warm himself up to the people. It's like walking a PR tightrope. He needs to get people comfortable with him succeeding Chavez, while not seeming like an opportunist heir to the throne.

As for US interests, well, let's just be thankful this isn't happening in the '80s. Ever since the mid-late 90s, the American foreign policy towards South America has been a lot less aggressive. You can see the changes already, even if it's in the form of reformist social democrat politicians, but still, a very positive change. Much better than US cronies.

[La Guaneña]

As for US interests, well, let's just be thankful this isn't happening in the '80s. Ever since the mid-late 90s, the American foreign policy towards South America has been a lot less aggressive. You can see the changes already, even if it's in the form of reformist social democrat politicians, but still, a very positive change. Much better than US cronies.

Yeah, we can't deny how the US is getting weaker in Latin America, but it's also naive to discard that influence, seeing the last elections in Venezuela and Colombia, and the latest agitations in Bolivia.

[Owl]

It would be nice to see Venezuela continue Chavez's policies after he's gone. But I may just be thinking optimistically.

[Crabbensmasher]

Yeah, we can't deny how the US is getting weaker in Latin America, but it's also naive to discard that influence, seeing the last elections in Venezuela and Colombia, and the latest agitations in Bolivia.

Sure, it is a bit naive, but think about it for a second. America, I'm sure, would just love to support the opposition parties in Venezuela. They'd love to concoct some scandal in Bolivia to push Morales out of office. And they'd definitely love to get rid of their biggest pain in the ass, Correa from Ecuador.

But really, the world isn't so black and white post-cold war. These countries still trade with the US; in fact, they are somewhat dependent on the american markets. Some of the biggest investors in these countries are Americans or Europeans.

America still has an insurmountable pile of debt tying things down at home, as well as cries from the the right and left of the political spectrum to pursue a more isolationist agenda.
It's definitely not Reagan running the country anymore.

Overall, I think that the American's grasp on power in the region is still waning, and there really isn't any better time for Chavez to stick around than now.

[Blake's Baby]

I had a look via the 'search' button for a thread like this but I couldn't find one.

With Hugo Chavez seemingly struggling to recover from cancer what does this mean for Venezuela?

I would really like to get peoples perspectives on what will happen in Venezuela if/when Chavez dies.

Thanks

The Guardian is writing this (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/02/hugo-chavez-cancer-venezuela-president).

If the 'gains' for the working class in Venezuela that are being touted depend on the life or death (or retirement) of one man then it's difficult to see that they actually have any basis in class struggle, the working class, the world situation or anything. I don't hold to 'great men of history' theories.

[LeonJWilliams]

Does Maduro have the charisma and ability to communicate effectively with the working class?

I don't know much about him.

[Die Neue Zeit]

Well, Maduro's now ahead in the polls. That's a surprising boost from lower expectations just after the election.

[sixdollarchampagne]

It would be nice to see Venezuela continue Chavez's policies after he's gone. But I may just be thinking optimistically.

One policy of Chávez that his successors will undoubtedly continue is selling the US over a million barrels of oil daily.

I am surprised at how little credit Chávez gets, for being such a reliable friend of US power in the world, not in his speeches, certainly, but in what he did: No matter what the US government was doing in the world, rain or shine, come hell or high water, war or peace, Chávez was there, supporting US power in the world, by selling oceans of oil to the US.

[Rusty Shackleford]

Thats like saying "if you buy mcdonalds you support capitalism"

[Blake's Baby]

No it isn't, it's like saying if you sell McDonalds you support capitalism.

[Rusty Shackleford]

No it isn't, it's like saying if you sell McDonalds you support capitalism.



Selling (commodity: McDonalds) means supporting capitalism?

i sell my labor (commodity) to a capitalist. I support capitalism!

Venezuelan oil is state owned. venezuelan oil is a commodity, yes. its oil.
Revenues from the state owned oil company are the property of the state.
state funds go to funding state programs, whatever they may be designated for.


american capitalists are imperialists
American capitalists buy venezuelan oil.
american capitalists refine and resell oil products.


american worker buys product sold by american capitalist which was made by oil sold by PdVSA
venezuelan worker buys product sold by american capitalist which was made by oil sold by PdVSA

american government is imperialist
american government buys oil products made by american capitalists made by oil sold by PdVSA
american government does nasty things with those oil products


and the cycle continues.

now, is the US state buying the oil or are american capitalists buying the oil? what are the current and past contracts with the american state or american capitalists?


yes selling oil to the US is not a nice thing. but to take from that a conscious and willing support for us imperialism is nonsense. if it were arms, or commodities with specific designations for imperialist projects then yes, it could be a conscious and willing support of imperialism.

no socialism does not reign in venezuela (it is capitalist and will do capitalist things), but is socialism autarky? reliance on sales to capitalists is hardly wise, but are there alternatives for venezuela?

do they not exchange oil with cuba for various services? can cuba consume all the oil of venezuela? no.

[Leo]

I think he was referring to selling McDonalds like the company itself, with the obvious precondition of owning the company in the first place in order to be able to sell it.

[Blake's Baby]

...
no socialism does not reign in venezuela, but is socialism autarky? reliance on sales to capitalists is hardly wise, but are there alternatives for venezuela?

...

Of course there aren't alternatives. Not real ones (obviously, they could if they wished just pump all the oil into the sea or sety fire to all their oil wells or build a massive oil-cannon to fire it all at the moon, but I don't think you're trying to discuss existentailism here).

What difference does that make? Just because Venezuela is a state that exists in a capitalist world, should we pretend it's not a capitalist state because there's no choice about it?

[Rusty Shackleford]

but i am not arguing that it is not a capitalist state

i am arguing that though the state is selling a commodity that it has sole control over, its oil, to american capitalists does not translate to support for imperialism.

[Blake's Baby]

Well, obviously it does. Venezuelan state oil (and the rest of the Venezuelan state) could refuse to sell the oil to the US and sell it to other places instead, perhaps more cheaply. But why would it? If the US is where the money is, why not sell it to the US?

[LeonJWilliams]

Well I guess with Hugo Chavez now dead we will find out what will happen.

1953-2013

[Rusty Shackleford]

Well, obviously it does. Venezuelan state oil (and the rest of the Venezuelan state) could refuse to sell the oil to the US and sell it to other places instead, perhaps more cheaply. But why would it? If the US is where the money is, why not sell it to the US?

economicaly yes, it does enable imperialist actions, but how much of it goes to imperialist interests in the form of military action or economic coercion, and how much goes to general sale for public consumption?


politically no, it does not.


also, venezuela has been looking for other markets, specifically china and india.

2006 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_H7VhJXt_6I)


2008 (http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2008-02-11/business/36788300_1_orinoco-region-oil-exports-venezuelans)


[/URL]

In 2007, oil shipments to the United States amounted to 1.14 million bpd; in 2008 totaled 1.03 million bpd and in 2009 reached 951,000 bpd.



[URL="http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2012/08/13/venezuela-boosts-oil-sales-to-china/"]late 2012 (http://www.eluniversal.com/economia/120302/venezuelan-oil-sales-to-the-us-dive-into-its-deepest-level)



each of these articles details a chronological shift in venezuelan oil sales. trending AWAY from sales to the US.


if it were any other commodity -lets say brooms- this whole argument would be preposterous.

[ElCubano]

Dont think so. Venezuela accuse USA of infecting Hugo.


Maduro charged the US administration in a televised speech on Tuesday, after holding an emergency meeting with high military command and civilian leaders and hours before the announcement of President Chavez’s death.

Caracas accused the US embassy’s Air Force attache, Colonel David Delmonaco, and assistant air attache, Major Devlin Kostal, of trying to stir up a military plot against the Venezuelan government.

Washington confirmed that the two officials were employed at the embassy, saying Delmonaco was en route back to the US, and Kostal was in America at the time.

Maduro also said that, “We have no doubt” that the President’s cancer, first diagnosed in 2011, was induced by “the historical enemies of our homeland,” a thinly-veiled reference to the US.

He compared the situation to the death of the late leader of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, Yasser Arafat, who Maduro claimed was “inoculated with an illness.”

US State Department spokesman Patrick Ventrell said in a statement that Washington “definitely rejects” the assertion that the US was involved in Chavez’s illness.

On Tuesday, the 58-year-old Venezuelan leader died after a two-year battle with cancer.

Back in 2011, Chavez had accused the US of developing a technology for infecting Latin American leaders with cancer.

Argentinean President Cristina Kirchner Fernandez, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and former Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo have all received treatment for cancer disease.

“Wouldn't it be weird if they [the US] had developed a technology for inducing cancer and nobody knows up until now?” Chavez had said at the time.

[Sasha]

Worthwhile article by an Venezuelan anarchist newspaper; http://www.revleft.com/vb/ch-vez-death-t179194/index.html?t=179194

[Paul Pott]

It is wishful thinking to think that if Maduro wins (which is actually quite likely) things will simply go on as normal as if Chavez were still in charge.

For one, some material concessions to the part of the ruling class aligned with the opposition are inevitable, including but not limited to watering down the best of the Chavez-era programs. Maduro's calculus here will lead him to placate, not to confront, in the long term. Maduro simply does not have the political clout or charisma to fill Chavez's shoes, even if he can hold the Chavez camp firmly together for now only because he's the designated successor. The simple fact is that the opposition will have a stronger foothold than when Chavez was alive, even if they don't make many electoral gains. The PSUV is more fragile than it looks.

Secondly, relations with the US may Libya-ize. Again, Maduro simply does not have the political clout or charisma to fill Chavez's shoes, and his political weakness will invite more aggression on the part of unpatriotic elements if he does not somehow turn them into allies. Maduro will probably seek to strengthen his position by improving ties with the opposition. This will mean that the PSUV will gradually drift toward the center. Maduro will probably seek to strengthen his position by going after violent crime any way he can, since that is a major opposition talking point. He will try to establish better relations with Colombia. Along with other concessions, this could lead to Venezuela joining the American "drug war" a la Nicaragua. Even under Chavez, there was already a policy taking shape of cooperating with Colombia against the drug lords, and even against the guerrillas.

That is a best case scenario.

The other possibility is a coup not unlike the one back in 2002, possibly followed by a civil war or dictatorship. The opposition could cry fraud in the elections, and try to bring out all of its support onto the streets. The loyalists will respond in kind. Things will escalate from there, and sections of the military aligned with the opposition could try to topple the government. All of the red militias will resist, and most of the army soldiers will probably rally to the loyalists, depending on a bunch of factors. Venezuela will descend into a civil war, in which the US will back proxy forces and offer reconaissance and clandestine support, probably through Colombia. Other actors like Russia and China may give the loyalists some limited, unofficial support. Brazil is more unpredictable. Foreign fighters will flock to the country. Leftists will come from Latin America and Europe. Cuba, Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, and others might organize volunteer brigades. Reactionary volunteers will come from Colombia, especially from the paras, who are already in Venezuela, as well as mostly Venezuelan and Cuban Americans from the US, who will overwhelmingly fight for the rebels.

It would be a bloody war we haven't seen the likes of since Spain, and it would throw the continent and the world into chaos, particularly over oil. It may be meaningful to speak of a second cold war. The biggest possibility is that it might crater Colombia with it. No one wants this.

But that's a worst case scenario.

[Mass Grave Aesthetics]

Venesuelas oil trade has been mentioned in this thread, but I´m not sure it is being discussed a lot in other Chavez threads on this forum now. I´m wondering if the government will continue to sell oil under the market price to certain countries? I´m sure most of the Venezuelan bourgeoisie and its representatives would love to reverse this trade- policy and it´s easy for them to justify doing so. Of course that would have heavy and even dire consequences for a lot of national economies, such as Cuba. What do other revlefters think?

[Lev Bronsteinovich]

If the 'gains' for the working class in Venezuela that are being touted depend on the life or death (or retirement) of one man then it's difficult to see that they actually have any basis in class struggle, the working class, the world situation or anything. I don't hold to 'great men of history' theories.
They do relate to class struggle, but Chavez is a left-nationalist, bonapartist. He rules a capitalist country and governs through the dictatorship of the bourgeoisie. The gains made by the general population are fragile precisely because of this. Venezuela needs proletarian revolution not Chavez.

[Zealot]

I'm actually optimistic. Chavez designated Maduro as his successor and thus he holds legitimacy within the administration and the population at large. Two Americans were kicked out of Venezuela and the armed forces have been deployed. It sounds to me as if they were well prepared for attempted coups and plots after Chavez's death and have also capitalised on the event to solidify the power of the PSUV over the political and social spheres. Far from making it easy for a neo-liberal takeover, I think the death of Chavez has made it much harder for them with the people in a state of mourning, the tightening grip of the PSUV and whatnot.

[Robespierre]

Maduro is smart and he's one of the people, not just a bureaucrat looking for power. I tend to doubt the legitimacy of claims that the two Americans were spies, but it is the right move to accuse them anyway and inspire some sort of national fervor. Maduro would do well to capitalize on the people's anger and create strong Anti-US feelings. Of course the opposition candidate Henrique has been to 4 or 5 US cities in the hours since Chavez passed. He's trying to strategize to destabilize Bolivarianism. Maduro is going have to find a way to crush that little bug and the electrodes that are controlling him. I want so badly for South America to rise up as one and cut a bloody swathe through the US. An end to the world's worst tyrant...

[Paul Pott]

Even so, that doesn't mean Venezuela won't capitulate to neoliberalism one way or the other. The PSUV is fragile without Chavez.

[REDSOX]

More doom and gloom amongst some left wingers on these boards, quel suprise!! Look what will happen is this, in 30 days there will be new elections and Nicolas maduro who was the vice president and now acting president will win those elections. The revolution will continue at its slow burning pace and although the imperialists will try to undermine venezuela they will fail. Maduro seems a good man he was a former trade unionist a bus driver i believe a member of liga socialista in the 1990's so i believe he is one of us. The task of the grassroots is to deepen the pace of change from the bottom up and not allow the bureaucratic elements in government to decide everything. There needs to be more land reform more nationalisation with workers self management, more policies lessening the dependence on oil and more anti imperialism. Thats what chavez was trying to do so lets hope it continues

[KurtFF8]

More doom and gloom amongst some left wingers on these boards, quel suprise!! Look what will happen is this, in 30 days there will be new elections and Nicolas maduro who was the vice president and now acting president will win those elections. The revolution will continue at its slow burning pace and although the imperialists will try to undermine venezuela they will fail. Maduro seems a good man he was a former trade unionist a bus driver i believe a member of liga socialista in the 1990's so i believe he is one of us. The task of the grassroots is to deepen the pace of change from the bottom up and not allow the bureaucratic elements in government to decide everything. There needs to be more land reform more nationalisation with workers self management, more policies lessening the dependence on oil and more anti imperialism. Thats what chavez was trying to do so lets hope it continues

If anything I've heard that Maduro is more Left wing than Chavez was. Now what that will actually translate to depends on quite a lot of factors (many of which are out of his hands of course)

[Sinister Cultural Marxist]

Maduro sounds like an old-school Latin American leftist to a point. He sees himself as some sort of Marxist, is a friend of the Cuban government, and seems more committed to the "socialist" part of the revolution than maybe some other folks in the PSUV. Other than that he was a worker (bus driver), unionist, socialist militant and former foreign minister. He did call his opponents "Maricons" once and ended up having to apologize to the gay community - hopefully he doesn't hold some reactionary views.


One interesting thing I noticed is how many people on the street were saying that the best way to honor Chavez is by finishing the "socialist revolution". Perhaps that is a good sign - the masses in Venezuela knows that what exists there currently is not socialism, but socialism is worth building whatever it is.

[REDSOX]

Maduro i believe leans to the left of the bolivarian movement and to the left of the PSUV(United socialist party of Venezuela) as does foreign minister Elias Jaua. There are others like Diosdado cabello (speaker of the national assembly) who lean to the right. So there are factions in this movement but i think the revolution is safe in maduros hands should as expected he wins the elections. His style and personality are different but not his beliefs. If i am wrong though well things could get interesting,

[Die Neue Zeit]

Lula was a trade unionist too, and look how that turned out!

“Being a trade union leader you pressure and you go on strike but eventually you’re drawn to the bargaining table and that was very much Lula’s style and that is very different than Chávez.” (Gerardo Munck) (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/2013/0307/Chavez-vs-Lula-Two-distinct-approaches-to-poverty-reduction-in-Latin-America)

[Paul Pott]

We don't know for sure that Maduro will even win.

[Crux]

We don't know for sure that Maduro will even win.
Sure, but any other result seems very unlikely, partly due PSUVs win in the most recent election and also, based on most polls I've seen, it seems pretty impossible that Capriles would win, even with an emboldened right.

[l'Enfermé]

Capriles got 45 percent of the vote against Chavez though. Maduro pales in comparison to Chavez.

[Paul Pott]

Capriles got 45 percent of the vote against Chavez though. Maduro pales in comparison to Chavez.

Yes, but then there is the fact that Chavez asked his followers to vote for Maduro. Capriles is the strongest candidate the opposition ever ran, but that may make Chavez's supporters come out in stronger numbers to defend their gains, just like last October.

Capriles doesn't have the prestige he did back then, either.

[Sinister Cultural Marxist]

We don't know for sure that Maduro will even win.


Capriles got 45 percent of the vote against Chavez though. Maduro pales in comparison to Chavez.

Maduro was polling at 50% and Capriles at 35% in recent head to head match-ups, and that was before the emotionally charged funeral and grieving period. Maduro's greater challenge is his ability to meet expectations in the long run.

[sixdollarchampagne]

but i am not arguing that it is not a capitalist state

i am arguing that though the state is selling a commodity that it has sole control over, its oil, to american capitalists does not translate to support for imperialism.

Well, selling us a million barrels a day sure as hell does not translate into opposition to imperialism. At the very least, it is facilitating what imperialism does; it must surely make our constant wars overseas, somewhat easier to wage.

Before his illness, Chávez, at least once, threatened, though probably only rhetorically, to cut off the oil, to sell to other countries, instead of to the US, but, like his threat to take over banking in Venezuela, he never followed through on that.

[sixdollarchampagne]

Venesuelas oil trade has been mentioned in this thread, but I´m not sure it is being discussed a lot in other Chavez threads on this forum now. I´m wondering if the government will continue to sell oil under the market price to certain countries? I´m sure most of the Venezuelan bourgeoisie and its representatives would love to reverse this trade- policy and it´s easy for them to justify doing so. Of course that would have heavy and even dire consequences for a lot of national economies, such as Cuba. What do other revlefters think?

The post above reminded me of something I read years ago: the Trotskyists of the LTS ("League of Workers for Socialism") charged that Venezuelan oil was being sold to the US at a discount. I have wondered ever since if that was true. Would anyone here know?

Also, a poster wrote about the PSUV, Chávez' party, drifting to the center, I think. I just wondered if anyone here knew whether the PSUV ever developed a political/leftist character for itself. Is its program socialist (expropriate the bourgeoisie), or left-liberal/social dem (programs to alleviate poverty) or what? Any information would be gratefully received.

[Sinister Cultural Marxist]

Well, selling us a million barrels a day sure as hell does not translate into opposition to imperialism. At the very least, it is facilitating what imperialism does; it must surely make our constant wars overseas, somewhat easier to wage.

Before his illness, Chávez, at least once, threatened, though probably only rhetorically, to cut off the oil, to sell to other countries, instead of to the US, but, like his threat to take over banking in Venezuela, he never followed through on that.

That's not how commodity markets work. If Venezuela refused to sell to the US, somebody else would. The US and Venezuela would lose out (the US by paying more, the Venezuelans by needing to sell it to less attractive markets) and whoever is selling to the US instead of Venezuela (i.e Canada, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, etc) would be the beneficiary. The costs to the US would be irritating at worst and the Venezuelans would not have much to show for the cost.

Hugo Chavez's government convincing OPEC to jack the price up to $100 a barrel probably did more to hinder American Imperialism than refusing to sell some petroleum would have done.



Also, a poster wrote about the PSUV, Chávez' party, drifting to the center, I think. I just wondered if anyone here knew whether the PSUV ever developed a political/leftist character for itself. Is its program socialist (expropriate the bourgeoisie), or left-liberal/social dem (programs to alleviate poverty) or what? Any information would be gratefully received.

Maybe "Both" is the right answer? Many political movements are not that monolithic.

[Paul Pott]

There are valid criticisms of Chavez's policy toward imperialism, but where Venezuela's oil goes is not one of them. Selling to the US is an economic necessity, just as it would be if the country were a worker's state. In that case it would be an easy source of foreign currency to purchase things we can't produce in x country.