Briefly describe what you see happening to the global economy in the near future

[ZenTaoist]

What exactly do you see taking place over the course of this year as far as unemployment, wages, austerity, etc? Describe what you predict briefly and explain why.

[Rusty Shackleford]

Austerity is on the march in the US right now. As for the general global economy, it could be possible that we are generally moving back into a growth period, though not a strong boom.

Dow Jones just celebrated breaking 14000 recently, the highest since 2007 i believe. though its not totally indicative of the global economic situation, it does say that, like usual, the bourgeoisie are doing alright.

In particular, people are celebrating Governor Jerry Brown's handling of the State Economy because theyve managed to get closed to a more stable budget among other things.

[Ocean Seal]

Next ten years, not much. Living standards will continue to decline, noticeably, especially in Europe. The BRIC countries will enter onto the world stage, but will still play second fiddle to the US and Europe. Housing will have another crash in America. People will be more miserable financially. People will have less trust in the government and in general depression and other psychiatric diseases will become more prominent. Nothing of any political importance will happen though.

[Le Socialiste]

We're entering into a new period of the economic crisis, that much is certain. The ruling-classes will continue to spearhead the drive for further austerity, but we're slowly seeing tentative signs of growth and recovery in major global economies. This recovery is shaky at best, and as the conditions of the 2007-8 crisis have yet to be fully addressed things could just as easily backslide. We remain in the midst of a general crisis however; no one's out of the woods yet. Greece remains on the brink, and Spain, Italy, and others still have the potential to join it; N. Africa and the Middle East continue to simmer in the wake of the Arab Spring, as Egypt's - and, to a lesser extent, Tunisia's - situation(s) progress. What does the immediate future hold? I think we're entering what some have termed the "new normal," where workers' living conditions decline to their lowest points in decades while the political and financial elite continue to pull in vast amounts of wealth. This'll likely spark fightbacks and different forms of resistance, the basic forms of which began with movements like Occupy and other related social struggles worldwide (but don't hold your breath for revolution just yet).

[Raúl Duke]

I don't think there will be an 'economic recovery (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/02/yes-virginia-the-rich-continue-to-get-richer-the-1-got-121-of-income-gains-since-2009.html)' for the working class. When the mainstream media talks about the recovery that's all about companies and Wall St. investors doing better, very good and in fact the working class may be doing even worse.

This will be an era where austerity will be pushed using either weak or dogmatic premises and pretensions. The main reason for that push will be the public debt, which in certain cases isn't really as problematic as the politicians like to paint it. Politicians will advocate austerity and cuts, disregarding/ignoring any idea of "cuts" to the elite class like end of tax loopholes, end of frivolous subsidies, etc and any thought on increasing taxes on the rich like the capital gains tax or instituting the "Tobin tax" (or "Robin Hood tax").

The "middle income" (i.e. well-paying jobs) will mostly be replaced by a larger number of low-wage work and any of those traditionally "middle income" work that are left and become open will also pay less or have less benefits, in some cases due to lack of unions, than they were in the past. And usually low-wage work that was entry-level for a "middle-income" or higher career will become unpaid internships.

However, I'm still missing the "consumer markets" part...I mean there will be less profits if there is less disposable income but I'm guessing that perhaps some of supply has been redirected to newly developed consumer markets abroad to account for the 'shrinking' of the US consumer market (or perhaps the consumer market in the US may have shrunk but not in a way that effects much the large corporations and so on although makes it difficult for small businesses to start-up, continue operating, and/or thrive; hah, I guess the austerity and structural changes to the economy fucked both the proletariat and even the petty bourgeoisie).

[Rusty Shackleford]

However, I'm still missing the "consumer markets" part...I mean there will be less profits if there is less disposable income but I'm guessing that perhaps some of supply has been redirected to newly developed consumer markets abroad to account for the 'shrinking' of the US consumer market (or perhaps the consumer market in the US may have shrunk but not in a way that effects much the large corporations and so on although makes it difficult for small businesses to start-up, continue operating, and/or thrive; hah, I guess the austerity and structural changes to the economy fucked both the proletariat and even the petty bourgeoisie).

the question here would also revolve around financial institutions and the availability of credit, alongside take-home income.


is it even fathomable that the US would forcibly drive down the dollar to support exports? bernanke was just at a WTO conference in Moscow on this.