Civil War in Greece

[Tim Cornelis]

What to do in the event of a (latent) civil war in Greece?

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lplsdpPbzy1qap9gno1_500.jpg

With the economic situation in Greece turning more grim by the day...
http://www.geenstijl.nl/archives/images/maarwatishetknoflooktechnisch.jpg.jpg
estimations of economic growth in dotted lines, real growth in black
... and a surge of the far-right, a civil war, while not very likely, is not entirely out of the question in the next couple of years. I would say chances of a civil war breaking out in the next few years is merely 5 against 95 (or 10 against 90 at worst). However, perhaps only a small incident, such as one nazi or anti-fascist bringing a gun to a fist fight, could set of a chain of retaliatory violence which could escalate into armed skirmishes.

Central question is: what would the revolutionary left need to do in such an event?

Attempting to push a civil war-like scenario into a socialist revolution may be a bit premature as the (subjective) conditions are not yet ready for it. Then again, spontaneous formation of workers' councils occurred in 1905 in Russia when 'subjective conditions' were ostensibly underdeveloped as well.

What we should do depends, of course, how this conflicts escalates. If there is a far-right attempt at seizing political power (akin to Spain 1936), I believe it should be our primary aim to combat fascism, not fight liberal democracy. If a general popular uprising against the state coincides with armed clashes between left- and right-wing groups, it would be easier to work towards a social transformation.

Popular uprisings against the state necessitate a new system to fill the vacuum. Thus we saw quasi-grassroots committees develop in Libya and now in Syria in the form of revolutionary councils, coordinating committees, and so forth, that replaces the conventional state authorities. They are quasi-grassroots because they are technocratic, not general or participatory.

Nevertheless, when such institutions develop spontaneously it's easier to turn them into institutions of workers' power.

Syria's Opposition Structure:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Political_Military_Opposition_Structure_(June_2012 ).jpg

Generally speaking, I don't think Greece can be the vanguard for the full emancipation of the working class. In the most positive scenario, at this point, I can see workers' councils and popular assemblies develop here and there, and perhaps be relatively widespread, but I doubt this will bring a classless, moneyless society into being. Perhaps for Marxist-Leninists this is not a problem as they believe in the (temporary) perpetuation of capital and central planning, and thus the vacuum of the absence of workers' councils and popular assemblies could be filled by a top-down implementation of nationalisations and central planning. So presumably Marxist-Leninists could try to advance a revolution, while and where other revolutionaries would not. Which is perhaps ironic since Marxist-Leninists usually called for a popular font and wish to postpone the revolution until fascism is beaten (referencing the Spanish Civil War in particular).

What are y'all views on this?

[TheRedAnarchist23]

The spanish civil war started in similar conditions, but even worse.
We cannot predict what will happen. We need to take into account the "personality" of the Greeks, because, for example, the portuguese people are quite lazy and will not do much for their emancipation unless it turns really bad, the same goes for Spain, but they are more active than us.
You also must not forget that the situation is getting worse in all of sourthern Europe, not just in Greece. In my country have heard songs and seen writtings that demand the death of the prime minister, this is popular opinion.

As Durruti said, the revolution must not be potponed until after fascism is defeated, the war is a part of the revolution.

Tim Cornelis, you write like the marxists.

[Sasha]

I think its way more probable that there will be straight to a new junta with small urban guerilla resistance then a full on civilwar again.

[Le Socialiste]

Tim Cornelis, you write like the marxists.

Presuming there is such a thing and it were indeed the case, would that be so bad?


I think its way more probable that there will be straight to a new junta with small urban guerilla resistance then a full on civilwar again.

Perhaps, though this is heavily conditional on the balance of forces in the country. Such an openly brutal display of the bourgeoisie's and capital's interests could potentially spark a powder keg in the country that's been growing since this crisis began. It would mark a significant escalation on the ruler's part, and I'm not convinced that, given the extent of the resistance so far in Greece, it wouldn't evoke something beyond mere resistance from bands of urban guerrilla fighters. Couple this with the general stagnation and austerity occurring throughout southern Europe (which has gradually spread north), and you have a situation that could very well destabilize the region. This all depends on the level of activity, resistance, and coordination within the working-class, however; another junta is unthinkable so long as the ruling-class believes it can exercise its will behind the facade of 'parliamentary democracy'.

Civil war certainly isn't out of the question either, but is perhaps far more unlikely. While we have witnessed a sharp polarization of political and social forces within the country, the likelihood of this occurring remains slim - though not out of the question. Again, it's all conditional on the size and influence of the revolutionary left, coupled with the general movement and activity of the masses.

[Prof. Oblivion]

Well, we can certainly say that the EU and investors don't think such things likely to happen. With S&P's rating increase based on the ability of Greece to meet its debt obligations (based on German conditional support as long as austerity gets rammed through), investors are actually long Greek bonds. Between January and now, investors made 80% on their investment. That's a strong sign of confidence from the markets.

I agree with this opinion. I don't think there will be significant or profound enough political unrest to overthrow the state. Maybe continued demonstrations, maybe another government gets thrown out, but not a revolution. And with German/EU support, I definitely don't see the Greek state collapsing in on itself, which is really a more probable scenario than a mass uprising and overthrow.

Further, the EU won't allow it, because if Greece had a government who withdrew from the EU, it would cause massive shock waves through the global economy. If such an event happened, you would quickly see an international force assembled to dispose of it. Greece is simply too important to the EU and global economy for the international community to not send it the troops and crush such a thing. And it would be probably rather fast, and end in some kind of undemocratic state being set up.

But anyways, yeah this won't happen. We'll see a lot more unrest, but the government will continue along with its massive austerity programs, Germany and the EU will continue pumping money into the country so that it can satisfy its debt obligations and maintain its status as a member state, and life will go on as is.

Greece is going to be a terrible place to live for a very long time, though.

[The Garbage Disposal Unit]

[center][size=5]4
What we should do depends, of course, how this conflicts escalates. If there is a far-right attempt at seizing political power (akin to Spain 1936), I believe it should be our primary aim to combat fascism, not fight liberal democracy.

I must strongly disagree. (http://endnotes.org.uk/texts/endnotes_1/when-insurrections-die.xhtml)

[Ravachol]

These kind of threads often come across as political masturbation to me. I mean even if this was a realistic scenario (which I don't think it is) I doubt anyone on this forum would hop on the plane to join some kind of latter-day international brigades or whatever as I doubt anyone here has even ever held a gun. And if they did, it would be kinda stupid to speculate on such things on some internet forum.


I think its way more probable that there will be straight to a new junta with small urban guerilla resistance then a full on civilwar again.

A 'civil war' is highly unlikely imo, civil wars usually develop when one faction of the bourgeoisie comes into conflict with another, drawing sections of the proletariat behind them and such a scenario seems highly unlikely in Greece. An overt junta seems unlikely to me as well. If anything, a technocratic 'government of stabilisation' consisting of Greek technocrats, willing politicians and EU appointed officials and professionals assisted by a coordinated counter-insurgency campaign (on multiple levels, social, psychological and where necessary military and policing) seems the more likely option. Though any 'solution' stands or falls with its ability to impose the current restructuring (and not only on a Greek level, but on a European level at least) of the capital relation.


If there is a far-right attempt at seizing political power (akin to Spain 1936), I believe it should be our primary aim to combat fascism, not fight liberal democracy.


Well I know what Dutch brigade not to join geez...
Because the 'lets fight one form of capitalism to save another' line has worked so well in history to ward off fascism? :rolleyes:

The emergence of fascism is not a political choice by a faction of the bourgeoisie, its a necessity for capital to continue its reproduction and as such only emerges under specific circumstances. Fascism didn't reign victoriously in Germany or Italy because of a particularly predisposed bourgeoisie and 'ineffective antifascism' and it wasn't warded off in France by Leon Blum's popular front. As VMC noted, I suggest the following text for clarification (http://endnotes.org.uk/articles/9).

[Lynx]

http://www.geenstijl.nl/archives/images/maarwatishetknoflooktechnisch.jpg.jpg
estimations of economic growth in dotted lines, real growth in black
What is the source for this chart?

[Die Neue Zeit]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/Political_Military_Opposition_Structure_(June_2012 ).jpg

Tim, that diagram looks good, but I'd rather see all these councils and committees as internal party organs for a multi-tendency, worker-class movement.

Why? If one looks at that diagram, it cannot be sustained without financial and other economic commitments, and where better to get these than from the likes of member dues?

[Sinister Cultural Marxist]

DNZ - do you think "member dues" could actually finance such an effort? It seems like such a broad effort would require control over the means of production and even possibly the export of commodities. Having a revolution in a borderline-1st world/3rd world country where fascists financed by the rich is difficult when you're running on the finances of the workers and not the workers directly using their control over economic means of production to support such a movement.

Anyways, Greece isn't quite there yet but it may be soon ... until it is it's hard to say whether such speculation is really going to be relevant. However the situation sure is dire enough to make it plausible, and Golden Dawn says that they want such a conflict.

[Die Neue Zeit]

DNZ - do you think "member dues" could actually finance such an effort? It seems like such a broad effort would require control over the means of production and even possibly the export of commodities. Having a revolution in a borderline-1st world/3rd world country where fascists financed by the rich is difficult when you're running on the finances of the workers and not the workers directly using their control over economic means of production to support such a movement.

Anyways, Greece isn't quite there yet but it may be soon ... until it is it's hard to say whether such speculation is really going to be relevant. However the situation sure is dire enough to make it plausible, and Golden Dawn says that they want such a conflict.

Sinister, the worker-class left (distinct from the Student Left, "Activist" Left, Petit-Bourgeois Left, etc.) has to start somewhere.

[Tim Cornelis]

These kind of threads often come across as political masturbation to me.

Of course it's political masturbation, it's an online forum. What's the last time you discussed anything on revleft that had any practical application? Those discussions are scarce.


I mean even if this was a realistic scenario (which I don't think it is) I doubt anyone on this forum would hop on the plane to join some kind of latter-day international brigades or whatever as I doubt anyone here has even ever held a gun. And if they did, it would be kinda stupid to speculate on such things on some internet forum.

Let me specify, I'm not talking about what we as revleft should do, but the revolutionary left in general. Regardless, Greece has a fairly comprehensive conscription so I suppose most Greek leftists have had some military training, which would make foreigners less needed.


The spanish civil war started in similar conditions, but even worse.
We cannot predict what will happen. We need to take into account the "personality" of the Greeks, because, for example, the portuguese people are quite lazy and will not do much for their emancipation unless it turns really bad, the same goes for Spain, but they are more active than us.
You also must not forget that the situation is getting worse in all of sourthern Europe, not just in Greece. In my country have heard songs and seen writtings that demand the death of the prime minister, this is popular opinion.

As Durruti said, the revolution must not be potponed until after fascism is defeated, the war is a part of the revolution.

Tim Cornelis, you write like the marxists.

there is little to no potential for a revolution, so in the event of a civil war-like scenario, we--logically--can't fight for a revolution. So what's left is fighting fascism. What else is there?

In 1936 Spain, the CNT was a mass movement with circa 600,000 members (rose to 1,500,000 by 1937). Now, PAME (Stalinist trade union) has 800,000 members (it claims). So if there is going to be a revolution, it's going to be a Marxist-Leninist/Stalinist one.

What do you propose then? There can't be a communist revolution that emancipates the working class with only a minority of the working class.


Well I know what Dutch brigade not to join geez...
Because the 'lets fight one form of capitalism to save another' line has worked so well in history to ward off fascism? :rolleyes:

By that logic we should abandon socialism since its history is filled with nothing but failure.

Anyway, there is little to no potential for a revolution, so in the event of a civil war-like scenario, we--logically--can't fight for a revolution. So what's left is fighting fascism. What else is there?


I think its way more probable that there will be straight to a new junta with small urban guerilla resistance then a full on civilwar again.

There would need to be a preceding episode that would legitimise military rule. Some red scare-like event.


What is the source for this chart?

The IMF. It was used by a Dutch Green-Left MP, and read this on a dutch right-wing website where I took this picture from.

[Philosophos]

Dude write in the title "Propable Civil War in Greece"... I just woke up, I sit on the computer and see this shit as the first "hellooo" of my day... You scared the crap out of me.

Anyway a civil war is about to take place (that's what I think) but it's not going to be an all out war. At least I hope the youth is going to the left after an incident like this...

[Jimmie Higgins]

Anyway, there is little to no potential for a revolution, so in the event of a civil war-like scenario, we--logically--can't fight for a revolution. So what's left is fighting fascism. What else is there?Well I agree that it's unlikely that Greek workers are prepared to have a revolution and run things themselves at this time, but "fighting fascism" if an actual armed conflict or coup was attempted can not mearly be "fighting fascism" because that would in effect be "fighting for the status quo" - the same status quo in which the ruling class has no alternative to the crisis but making people eat-shit in the form of austerity for a generation or more, the same conditions which created a social base for fascism in the first place!

So if this situation arose where workers had to take action against organized armed fascists intent on taking power, the working class struggle, in order to create a compelling opposition have to at least be able to offer something better than the current situation and for an alternative to the bourgoeis government. This doesn't necissarily mean that it has to be revolution or nothing, the working class resistance can be part of a bigger popular resistance, but it also has to fight the class struggle at the same time or else, even if the coup is defeated, they will be more or less in the same situation and waiting for the fascists or some new right-wing formation to regroup.

There's a dynamic begining where things just can't "go back to normal" and so either workers shut up and accept the bourgoise attempts to make them eat the crisis, or if they resist then a new dictatorship will be wating to pick up the slack if normal parlementary government can't keep society together... or workers can fight and put their own alternative on the table.

I'm not saying it's like socialism or barbarism in the short-term, and I even doubt that an actual civil war (rather than an increase in the amount and ferocity of street-fighting) is likely at this point. But I do think there is a dynamic where if the workers can not present their alternative to the crisis, the government is shown to be inable to deal with both the demands of the ruling class austerity program and the worker's resistance, then fascism will ultimately become the likely alternative. But things can "calm down" if people just become demoralized and accomodate to a new economic "reality" or there could even be a revolutionary movement emerge - it's hard to say, things develop and change quickly in such circumstances.

[Manic Impressive]

If it did come to a conflict in Greece how likely is it that the anarchists and Stalinists would cooperate in any way? Particularly seeing how much bad blood there has been between them in the recent past. Is it possible that in an armed conflict they may end up opposing each other violently?

[Ravachol]

Let me specify, I'm not talking about what we as revleft should do, but the revolutionary left in general. Regardless, Greece has a fairly comprehensive conscription so I suppose most Greek leftists have had some military training, which would make foreigners less needed.


Having had military training doesn't mean that much in a civil war scenario, esp. not without, you know, arms and other necessary logistics. Besides there's a world of difference between regular army training and a largely urban guerrilla campaign(since I'd guess most Greek leftists are based in and/or centered around major cities like Athens & Thessaloniki).



there is little to no potential for a revolution, so in the event of a civil war-like scenario, we--logically--can't fight for a revolution. So what's left is fighting fascism. What else is there?


You don't understand what me and VMC have been trying to point out. Fascism doesn't just "spring out of nowhere" and neither does a Junta (though its dynamics are different). Fascism (a rather inefficient form of capitalism) arises only when the reproduction of capital by normal means becomes impossible, not by individual choice of the bourgeoisie. As such, it either rises in the wake of a failed revolutionary wave or amid its rumblings, it doesn't just spring up in normality. So I don't know what kind of scenario you have in mind where there is 0 social breakdown, 0 potential for a revolutionary situation but still somehow fascism rears its head.

Besides, i'm not interested in standing next to this or that bourgeois faction, regardless of context.



In 1936 Spain, the CNT was a mass movement with circa 600,000 members (rose to 1,500,000 by 1937). Now, PAME (Stalinist trade union) has 800,000 members (it claims). So if there is going to be a revolution, it's going to be a Marxist-Leninist/Stalinist one.


Is that so? First of all, you seem to have the weird idea revolutions spring from idealist sources, from ideological contraptions like 'anarchism' or 'Marxism-Leninism' or whatever instead of from the underlying social dynamics of a society. Lots communards in the Paris commune were adherents of Proudhon but the Commune sure as hell wasn't a 'proudhonist' experiment (luckily).

Besides, having a particular organisational member count doesn't mean shit for revolutionary stirrings, GSEE has waaay more members so does that mean 'the revolution' (whatever that may be) is gonna be social democratic?



What do you propose then? There can't be a communist revolution that emancipates the working class with only a minority of the working class.


Yeah, that's true. But putting the horse behind the cart by trying to build the party/union/whatever in the absence of the content that animates such a vessel (ie. the class struggle taking a revolutionary turn) is insanity and a sisyphian labor if there ever was one.



By that logic we should abandon socialism since its history is filled with nothing but failure.

Yeah I don't think its a bad idea to drop the 'traditions of those dead generations which press on our minds like a nightmare', including the old revolutionary models and schematics of the past. Simply 'trying again, but harder' is the stupidest idea ever. The difference when it comes to communism though is that I don't think communism's emergence stands or falls with the application of the 'perfect formula' and I don't think it's dependent upon the whims of a pro-rev minority.

[Ravachol]

If it did come to a conflict in Greece how likely is it that the anarchists and Stalinists would cooperate in any way? Particularly seeing how much bad blood there has been between them in the recent past. Is it possible that in an armed conflict they may end up opposing each other violently?

I sure hope nobody makes the same stupid mistake of popular frontism again...

[Philosophos]

If it did come to a conflict in Greece how likely is it that the anarchists and Stalinists would cooperate in any way? Particularly seeing how much bad blood there has been between them in the recent past. Is it possible that in an armed conflict they may end up opposing each other violently?

I just hope that all the left people will cooperate if something like this happens... Or at least not fight each other...

[Devrim]

... and a surge of the far-right, a civil war, while not very likely, is not entirely out of the question in the next couple of years. I would say chances of a civil war breaking out in the next few years is merely 5 against 95 (or 10 against 90 at worst). However, perhaps only a small incident, such as one nazi or anti-fascist bringing a gun to a fist fight, could set of a chain of retaliatory violence which could escalate into armed skirmishes.

I don't think that a civil war is at all likely in Greece in the near future. Of course you are right that conditions can escalate very quickly, but at the moment I don't see the base for it. As has been pointed out already:


civil wars usually develop when one faction of the bourgeoisie comes into conflict with another, drawing sections of the proletariat behind them and such a scenario seems highly unlikely in Greece.

That the model of the Syrian Opposition is one that an anarchist should consider to me seems more than a little bizarre. A revolutionary model is one that is based upon the power of the working class. There is nothing about this model that suggests this at all.


In 1936 Spain, the CNT was a mass movement with circa 600,000 members (rose to 1,500,000 by 1937). Now, PAME (Stalinist trade union) has 800,000 members (it claims). So if there is going to be a revolution, it's going to be a Marxist-Leninist/Stalinist one.

I don't think that there is anything revolutionary about the KKE, but even if there were revolutions are made by classes, not political groups.

Devrim