Alternative History's greatest hits

[MarxSchmarx]

If you were to list the 5 events, which seem reasonably plausible, since the beginning of recorded history that would have been the most likely to have radically altered the course of history, what would they be? And why?

here is my list in increasing order of importance :D

5. Lenin lives until the early 1940s. -> make that Germany's post WWI communist revolution succeeds, Os Cangaceiros (http://www.revleft.com/vb/member.php?u=14692) makes a better case
4. The Confederacy wins the American Civil War
3. The Ming dynasty retains an aura of expansionism typified by Zheng He
2. Nazi Germany/Imperial Japan gets the bomb first
1. The Moors go on to conquer France and by extension much of Western Europe, effectively extinguishing Catholicism

Admittedly I'm not convinced these are the greatest developments. Arguably some great developments have been due to people like Newton and Gutenberg, but their successes are much more clearly due to them being products of their times. Had Newton's discoveries been made in pre-Colombian Mayan Guatemala, for instance, it is unlikely that his contributions would have been as impactful. Similarly, the printing press was being used in Korea by the time it was reinvented in Europe. but I'd posit the mostly military/political claims I've made are the kinds of things that could have plausibly gone differently that would have dramatically altered history at crucial junctures.

What do you think? If you had to squeeze it down to 5 things, what would they be?

[Ostrinski]

What about Carthage conquering Rome? That's a common one in these conversations.

[Robespierres Neck]

Interesting list. I don't know if I can list 5 at the moment. One that came to mind is if someone like Molotov or Voroshilov became General Secretary after Stalin's death, instead of Khrushchev. If Trotsky became General Secretary after Lenin's death. If The Gang of Four gained power instead of Xiaoping.

[Ostrinski]

KMT wins civil war in China.
Soviet Union manages to invade Japan before bombs dropped.
Nuclear war between NATO and Soviet Union.
Establishment of Soviet state in Spain.

[Os Cangaceiros]

- Charles Martel losing the Battle of Tours
- The Mongols conquering Japan and maybe expanding further into Europe than they did
- The Nazis somehow winning the second world war (maybe not expanding into the USSR, etc)
- Henry the V losing the Battle of Agincourt
- The German Revolution somehow succeeding, a socialist state being founded, and forming an alliance with the USSR

[MarxSchmarx]

What about Carthage conquering Rome? That's a common one in these conversations.

It is, I definitely thought about that. I think there are two comparisons that are telling. The first is with the Goths and the Germanic tribes that conquered rome and ended up adopting its culture. Whether Carthaginian influence was entrenched enough to prevent such an absorption is a real question. Even the Byzantine empire ended up being quite a bit more roman than greek. A second comparison is medieval Venice and early modern Holland. Carthage was a merchantile empire whose formula for success was followed by these once mighty empires that nevertheless left a very limited mark on history. It hterefore raises a question of whether a trading power like Carthage could have been able to translate that into meaningful political and social change.


Interesting list. I don't know if I can list 5 at the moment. One that came to mind is if someone like Molotov or Voroshilov became General Secretary after Stalin's death, instead of Khrushchev. If Trotsky became General Secretary after Lenin's death. If The Gang of Four gained power instead of Xiaoping.

Hard to say about the Trotsky case but as to the others, one thing to consider is that Stalin and to some extent Mao had through 25 years very much created a certain social consensus that proved very hard for subsequent actors to change.

[Ostrinski]

Interesting list. I don't know if I can list 5 at the moment. One that came to mind is if someone like Molotov or Voroshilov became General Secretary after Stalin's death, instead of Khrushchev. If Trotsky became General Secretary after Lenin's death. If The Gang of Four gained power instead of Xiaoping.I dunno if any of these really would have made a difference, at least not an earth shattering one. They seem to rely on the supposed intentions of individual people.

[Marxaveli]

Paris Commune is victorious?

The SPD moves farther to the left, and votes against WWI and unites with the Bolsheviks to spread the revolution.

[Ostrinski]

Yeah German Revolution is a significant one.

Maybe a bit naive of me, but maybe if the federalists beat the republicans in the 1800 presidential elections in the US and somehow managed to abolish slavery as was the official party program. The federalists dissolved during Madison's presidency after threatening to succeed from the union because of the War of 1812.

An earlier abolition of slavery in the interest of the bourgeoisie would have led to the civil war being fought earlier and perhaps an earlier industrialization of the US. Could have had some kind of effect.

[Ostrinski]

There are also endless possibilities for Napoleonic France.

What if they never tried to invade Russia?
What if they didn't get their asses kicked by Wellington?
What if the empire was able to be reinstated after Napoleon's return from exile?

[Psy]

The Communists in Japan take over in the mid-1930's and spends WWII in a civil-war against the nationalists (in short Japan follows in the Bolsheviks footsteps) and comes out of WWII ravished by civil-war rather then a war against the US and USSR. Mao is handed Manchuria by a Japanese workers state that doesn't want to deal with holdings outside of Japan proper and wants both China and USSR as allies (changing the nature of the Sinto-Soviet split). Naturally the Korean war never happens as Korea is never divided and either handed over to Mao or granted independence as a complete nation.

[Os Cangaceiros]

Also, since I like military history, perhaps Harold the Saxon achieving victory over William the Conqueror at the battle of Hastings?

[Ostrinski]

MarxSchmarx, I am not well versed in Chinese history as you are, what would be the significance of 3?

[Lenina Rosenweg]

If Admiral Zheng He had continued his explorations, there is the possibility that China would have colonized Africa before Europe, and possibly discovered Europe instead of the other way around.

The German Revolution of 1919-23 taking a different course is a biggie.There have been scenario's of this posted on RevLeft, one called Reality Rosa, forget the author, and one by Zimmerwaold1914.

Rome being defeated by Carthage or stopped in its tracks after the "Social War" is up there, of course the mode of production, a semi-feudal slave society, might be essentially the same.

The Moors winning the Battle of Tours and rolling on to France.

[Os Cangaceiros]

IIRC the Chinese were not very interested in colonization, in the Zheng He era...I think the prevailing notion in China at that time was that everything worthwhile and important was happening in China, and they didn't really see any potential benefits in colonies, they saw the rest of the world as a curiousity and an opportunity for some trade, but I could be wrong....

The Chinese bureaucracy at that time was incredibly destructive and a huge barrier to progress. It seems like "The Bureaucracy" has always been pretty big in China.

[MarxSchmarx]

If Admiral Zheng He had continued his explorations, there is the possibility that China would have colonized Africa before Europe, and possibly discovered Europe instead of the other way around.


I'm not sure one can say Europe ever really "discovered" China, and China was certainly well aware of Europe and recognized it for the economically dismal backwater it was.

But you are absolutely correct that the Chinese colonization, or at least dominance over much of the African coast and its trade networks, would have been a very real possibility. This would have precluded any European intervention in the Indian ocean, depriving Holland of the Spice Islands and most significantly England of India.

However, I think the "crown jewel" of the "age of exploration" typified by Zheng He would have been a Chinese presence in the new world decades before Columbus stumbled upon it. China was not as bent on settling new societies as Spain or Portugal, but they were keen to demand nominal suzerainty and likely would have had the material basis to do so along much of north America's pacific coast. Their aspirations on lands as far as Indonesia and Sogdiana illustrate that early Ming China was not adverse to the kind of empire building that would have given them an impetus to improve their navy. Perhaps far more impactful would be that it would have been Chinese disease from the west, and not European disease from the east, that wiped out a huge fraction of the new world, and the Chinese would have had a century and a half head start establishing their power in an empty land that the Europeans would likely have been unable to overcome.

Alas it was not to be (unlike what that 1421 guy says)

[Os Cangaceiros]

Oh god, Gavin Menzies...I was forced to take a "Chinese studies" course during my college years (to fulfill a specific credit...it was the most appealing in a list of generally unappealing courses). We watched some documentary that was made about Gavin Menzies and his claims. I went into the documentary totally non-biased, as I hadn't investigated his claims at all, and hell I didn't know shit about Chinese history anyway. But wow, that guy came off as a total hack who's claims did not hold up to any kind of serious scrutiny.

[MrCool]

If during the Winter War, France and Britain sent troops to Finland to fight the Soviet troops.

[Ocean Seal]

If the Ming Dynasty would continue its expansionist character the world would undoubtably be very different. We would be speaking Chinese from Canada to Chile. Its possible that the Amerindian genocide could have been avoided entirely, and that amicable relations could have been started between the East and West (I of course use the word amicable loosely, but I mean that it would not result in the dominance of the Americas by one race, and the absolute destruction and subjugation of others).


Here is another one though. The Spanish are received with hostility immediately when arriving in Mexico and Peru. The plague wipes out large swaths of indigenous population, but they develop a resistance.

The Ottoman Empire wins the battle of Lepanto, and destroys the Holy Alliance.

[Libertad the Second]

Let me introduce you to one of the most highly acclaimed work in AH.com right now: The Reds timeline.

I unfortunately can't post links or images until my post count is over 25. And I'm still new here. :(

So all I can suggest is use Google, type "reds tv tropes" and click on the second result about reds as a work in AH.com.... or type "reds alternate history.com" and immediately click on the first result: Red Dawn: American Revolution and Rebirth and see the post-1933 (currently at 1938) Union of American Socialist Republics.

The tv tropes article is much better, with more links available. The author is currently rewriting the pre-1933 timeline which has a link on the TV tropes article plus the original one while making new plans on the progression of the TL up to the 2000's as he talked with us about those plans and is now rewriting the Roaring Twenties update, while the Red Dawn thread is at 1938 for now.

It's very comprehensive... and pushed into more of a literary work and having a "more realistic" bent. ;)

You'll enjoy reading it. If you see Libertad on the Red Dawn thread acting all active over there, that's me. :D

Look it up. I'm so amazed by it. Whahaha. :lol:

[Geiseric]

What about Carthage conquering Rome? That's a common one in these conversations.
The dark ages and the bubonic plague would still of happened eventually, wiping out any semblence of civilization in western europe.

[GoddessCleoLover]

The dark ages and the bubonic plague would still of happened eventually, wiping out any semblence of civilization in western europe.

The historiographical problem here is that the history of Carthage was written by Romans. Carthage has been portrayed as a barbarous society that practiced child sacrifice. The historiographical problem is that Roman historians had a profound motivation to distort or even lie about Carthage. If the Roman portrayal is, on balance, accurate then Carthaginian society would not have flowered and at the most I surmise that the rise of Islam would have resulted in the welcome demise of a barbarous civilization.

I still have serious doubts about whether Carthage was such an evil place given the fact that the Romans got to write the history of Carthage.

[Geiseric]

Carthage would hardly be the only civlization at the time in the western world to sacrifice humans, germanic tribes, as well as ancient greek states have been doing that as well for a long time. Rome was no different, what do you think they did to keep the plebs and poor farmers content when there were invading tribes or famine? I seriously doubt rome was unique in that it was "progressive" at the time, it was simply better organized to complete the same goals that the gallics and germans were unable to complete. Rome was kinda in the middle of everything, but isn't it a marxian concept that more advaced technology and production only aggrivates social stratification? I don't see much difference between ancient greece and say the persian empire.

[zimmerwald1915]

The German Revolution of 1919-23 taking a different course is a biggie.There have been scenario's of this posted on RevLeft, one called Reality Rosa, forget the author, and one by Zimmerwaold1914.
Thanks for the plug.

[Lord Daedra]

Vikings maintain a presence in N America causing the Indians to be exposed to western diseases far sooner than scheduled. This allows them to successfully resist complete colonization through the power of demographics.

[Jack]

1. Premature death of Genghis Khan, Mongol Invasions never happen.
2. Defeat of the French Revolution at its outset, the entire current state of affairs, last 200 years of history, and the map of the world would be radically different.
3. Rome doesn't adopt Christianity, Manichaeism or traditional paganism become the dominant religions of the empire while its regional appeal is fragmented, disrupting later European unity.
4. Moorish conquest of Gaul, damn the OP for taking that.
5. Ottoman success in Vienna, leading to an eventual conquest of most of Central Europe and opening the door to the West.

[Libertad the Second]

Thanks for the plug.

Yeah, I'm a big fan of that in AH.com... :D

When are you going to continue it? Look at your TL in AH.com, I've asked you that question. ;)

I like Reality Rosa by Cowd too... Hahaha... Just for fun... not for its plausibility. :laugh:

[Thelonious]

1. The Nina, Pinta, and Santa Maria sink and Columbus is forgotten.
2. Jesus dies in the manger from SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome).
3. Supreme Court rules in favor of Al Gore.
4. Charlie Parker kicks his heroin habit and lives to create another revolution in jazz.
5. Yoko Ono never meets John Lennon.

[Karl Renegade]

I'd list 8, if I'm allowed to cheat.
1. Emperor Constantine never having his vision which means Christianity may never have become so large.
2. Napoleon and his army leaving Russia before winter which means that all of europe would have been dominated by France for possibly a long time.
3. Louisiana purchase never occuring and the US never became large nor powerful.
4. The Ottoman army able to invade Vienna which means Islam at least as powerful as the west today.
5.The ship Lusitania never torpedoed which means the US never entered WWI,Germany winning and Nazis never existed.
6. Franco-Prussian war ending with a French victory, preventing WWI and WWII.
7. The Seven years war ending in French victory, preventing/delaying The French Revolution and the birth of modern liberal west.
8. The 30 years war ending in a Catholic victory, discrediting Protestantism and its two products: Liberalism and the Industrial revolution.