*breaking* turkey shell syrian position after syrian mortar kills turkish family of 5

[Sasha]

http://m.aljazeera.com/se/2012103181110169706

[Ostrinski]

Did shit just get real?

[ВАЛТЕР]

Something in me seriously doubts that the Syrians would just come out and shell a Turkish position without provocation. I don't want to be the "conspiracy nut", but a false flag shouldn't be out of the question. I mean, Hitler did the same thing when he wanted to invade Poland. had some mortar crews shell a German position as an excuse for war.

Also, yes, it appears that shit has just gotten real.

[Sasha]

Seems a mortar went off course by accident but as this is hardly the first such incident and the refugee crisis has put turkey understrain it was only a matter of time before the turkish army would get involved, esp after the turkish jet got downed a few weeks ago.
I don't think this will mean a real war between the two nations but i wouldn't be suprised if turkey will use this to get NATO behind a no Syrian army buffer close to the border and use that as a safe base for the FSA and a place to dump the refugees back to.

[Devrim]

Something in me seriously doubts that the Syrians would just come out and shell a Turkish position without provocation. I don't want to be the "conspiracy nut", but a false flag shouldn't be out of the question.

Would we put it past the Turkish state to murder its own citizens for political expediency? I think not. However, just because it is something which we may think is possible that doesn't mean its the case. It could have been done by anyone. It could have been a genuine mistake by the Syrian military (I am presuming here that they wouldn't have done it intentionally as it seems to be against their own interests), it could have been an act by the Syrian rebels to draw Turkey into the conflict (this could have been co-ordinated with MIT, Turkish military intelligence, or done independently, or it could have been the act of Kurdish nationalists trying to up the stakes.

Would the Turkish government baulk at a false flag operation that involved murdering its own citizens? Certainly not, but that is far from the only possibility here.

Devrim

[Devrim]

Seems a mortar went off course by accident but as this is hardly the first such incident and the refugee crisis has put turkey understrain it was only a matter of time before the turkish army would get involved

Compared to the number of refugees who fled to Turkey in the Iraq crisis, the numbers are not yet that significant. Of course it is not what any state wants on its borders and the Turkish army and police are treaty refugees in the way that refugees tend to be treated, but I don't think Trkey is in any way 'understrain'.


esp after the turkish jet got downed a few weeks ago.

It is a little longer that that now.


I don't think this will mean a real war between the two nations but i wouldn't be suprised if turkey will use this to get NATO behind a no Syrian army buffer close to the border and use that as a safe base for the FSA and a place to dump the refugees back to.

NATO backed Turkey under the relevant clause after the jet incident. I don't think that they need to get NATO behind anything.

Devrim

[Leo]

Here's the details I currently know about this:

- Such bombings on the Turkish side of the border have apparently been going on for a while although this is the first time there are causalities.

- The Turkish state shelled a village in a rebel (Syrian Free Army) controlled area in Syria.

- Tomorrow, the Turkish Parliament was going to vote a permission for a military intervention in (obviously Northern) Iraq, and they are now planning to include Syria into it as well.

- The Syrian Minister of Information said they will investigate, sent their condolences to the deceased and expressed Syria's respect for Turkey's security, thus basically denying any responsibility.

- Turkey has been and still is engaged in a very intense conflict with the PKK in the Turkish Kurdistan which is very far from being over, especially to Turkey's benefit. It is reported that there are areas which the Turkish state can't enter, and these areas are expanding slowly.

- There have recently been semi-spontaneous clashes with the police in Hatay against war with Syria, involving thousands, perhaps well over ten thousand - and whole neighborhoods.

- Not sure about the NATO - its a complicated situation.

All for now, I'll post more updates.

[campesino]

@ Devrim

Can you tell us how the Turkish military and the AK/Erdogan Party, view the Syrian issue?

[Devrim]

@ Devrim

Can you tell us how the Turkish military and the AK/Erdogan Party, view the Syrian issue?

I don't live there anymore. Perhaps it would be better to ask Leo for more up to date news.

However, nearly a year and a half ago, I was told personally by a senior AKP figure that they wouldn't leave their brothers in Syria alone. Obviously he was full of shite.

For those who follow Turkish politics, the relative positions of the military and the government have now definitively changed from the position 15 years ago, and given recent events I don't think that the military exercises anywhere near the control it once did.

However, all factions of the Turkish state would be united in cracking down on any possibility of a window of opportunity for Kurdish 'separatism' in Syria.

Devrim

[campesino]

I don't live there anymore. Perhaps it would be better to ask Leo for more up to date news.

However, nearly a year and a half ago, I was told personally by a senior AKP figure that they wouldn't leave their brothers in Syria alone. Obviously he was full of shite.

For those who follow Turkish politics, the relative positions of the military and the government have now definitively changed from the position 15 years ago, and given recent events I don't think that the military exercises anywhere near the control it once did.

However, all factions of the Turkish state would be united in cracking down on any possibility of a window of opportunity for Kurdish 'separatism' in Syria.

Devrim

I don't think the Turkish state has to worry about Kurds in Syria. I have not heard a word about the situation of Kurds in Syria and if they have taken any steps to accomplishing Kurdish independence in Syria. Once again the Kurds have seem to be forgotten by the media.

[Leo]

I personally think it would be very difficult for the Turkish government to launch a full-scaled invasion of Syria when it's already been fighting an unusually bloody war in the Turkish Kurdistan since the beginning of this Summer and doesn't seem to be winning at all.

They are, however, training, funding and arming the Free Syrian Army, and militarily aiding their operations as well.

The Turkish state has everything to worry about the Kurds in Syria, given that the PKK basically came to power in the Syrian Kurdistan.

[Rusty Shackleford]

i doubt it was a turkish 'false flag' operation, and i doubt syria did it on purpose. my guess is some asshole got his hands on a mortar and didnt know which way to point it.


im going to literally cry laughing if it turns out that it was the FSA that did it, and it was the FSA that got shelled by johnny turkey.

[Devrim]

I don't think the Turkish state has to worry about Kurds in Syria. I have not heard a word about the situation of Kurds in Syria and if they have taken any steps to accomplishing Kurdish independence in Syria. Once again the Kurds have seem to be forgotten by the media.

The Turkish state worries about Kurds constantly. The situation in Syrian Kurdistan has been reported on extensively in the local media (Turkish and Arabic), and has also appeared in English language media (there was a thread on Libcom with some links I think).

It does seem that the PKK has control of some towns in Syria, which will severely displease the Turkish state.


im going to literally cry laughing if it turns out that it was the FSA that did it, and it was the FSA that got shelled by johnny turkey.

I don't quite see the humour in civilians being murdered. Also 'Johnny Turk' is considered to be quite a racist term.

Devrim

[Leo]

According to various sources, hundreds, including close relatives of those deceased in the town which was hit on this side of the border, demonstrated against the government's pro-War policies about Syria, and demanded the resignation of the governors of the town and the metropolitan area. The mayor, a member of the ruling party, said "I can't understand why these people are demonstrating" on live TV, meanwhile the police were attacking the demonstrators with tear-gas. Clashes followed.

[l'Enfermé]

Seems a mortar went off course by accident but as this is hardly the first such incident and the refugee crisis has put turkey understrain it was only a matter of time before the turkish army would get involved, esp after the turkish jet got downed a few weeks ago.
I don't think this will mean a real war between the two nations but i wouldn't be suprised if turkey will use this to get NATO behind a no Syrian army buffer close to the border and use that as a safe base for the FSA and a place to dump the refugees back to.
It's funny how there would be no refugees in Turkey if Turkey hasn't been supporting the FSA types since day one with shelter, equipment, ammunition and propaganda.

Either way it's been pretty clear that NATO simply cannot tolerate an outcome where there's no regime change in Syria for a long time, and a regime change doesn't look likely without a NATO invasion or heavy bombing campaign. A "regional war" between Turkey and Syria sounds a lot better for NATO PR-wise than an Afghanistan-style invasion.

And Turkey might get an EU membership for their troubles, though most European countries probably won't like that but Europeans hardly ever like y whatever the US shoves down their throats and there's a whole lot of shit down their throats by now.

[Rusty Shackleford]

The Turkish state worries about Kurds constantly. The situation in Syrian Kurdistan has been reported on extensively in the local media (Turkish and Arabic), and has also appeared in English language media (there was a thread on Libcom with some links I think).

It does seem that the PKK has control of some towns in Syria, which will severely displease the Turkish state.



I don't quite see the humour in civilians being murdered. Also 'Johnny Turk' is considered to be quite a racist term.

Devrim

please forgive me. i had been listening to "the band played waltzing matilda" first time i heard the term...

and yes, there is no humor in the death of 5 civilians.

[Devrim]

please forgive me. i had been listening to "the band played waltzing matilda" first time i heard the term...

There's nothing to forgive. I don't think you are in any way a racist. I was just pointing out that it is probably not a term that you would like to use, more for your own information than anything else.


and yes, there is no humor in the death of 5 civilians.

There would of course be an irony in it, which some could find amusing. Maybe I was in a grouchy mood when I responded to your post, sorry. It doesn't seem as if it is the FSA though as the Turkish and Syrian armies have now been exchanging fire since the day that it happened.

Devrim

[Devrim]

And Turkey might get an EU membership for their troubles, though most European countries probably won't like that but Europeans hardly ever like y whatever the US shoves down their throats and there's a whole lot of shit down their throats by now.

I don't think that there is any chance of this happening. I don't think the US has the power to influence this even.

Devrim

[Rusty Shackleford]

From what ive been reading, the Syrian Army may have been overshooting FSA targets that are just on the Syrian side of the border.

turkey is now responding to every piece of ordnance that lands on the Turkish side of the border.


And hey Devrim, thanks for keeping me in check.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

This may be conjectural but...

There is a thread on libcom in which posters mention that the PKK "officially" are now claiming to be anarchists. I assume this may be a code of sorts meaning that they have given up the fight for a Kurdish state. It was mentioned that Ocalan, in a Turkish prison somewhere, claims to be a follower of the ecological anarchist Murray Bookchin (this strikes me as a bit bizarre)

Is the PKK presence in northern Syria militarily significant? Are they militarily engaging Syrian rebels?

Also Vijay Prashad said recently he doesn't think Turkey will directly militarily intervene, that is, invade Syria.The Turkish ruling class may want to but they are constrained.Recently 300 army officers were purged for allegedly supporting a coup attempt and although the army is now solidly pro-Erdogan, morale is still very low. Maybe just as importantly there appears to be mass opposition to an invasion of Syria, as witnessed by protests last week.

[Devrim]

There is a thread on libcom in which posters mention that the PKK "officially" are now claiming to be anarchists.

I don't think they claim to be 'anarchists'. The term that they use is 'democratic confederalism'.


I assume this may be a code of sorts meaning that they have given up the fight for a Kurdish state.
They don't call for a Kurdish state anymore. They haven't given up fighting though and this year has seen more armed clashes between the PKK and the security forces than there have been for ages.


It was mentioned that Ocalan, in a Turkish prison somewhere, claims to be a follower of the ecological anarchist Murray Bookchin (this strikes me as a bit bizarre)

Yes, I remember thinking it was a bit bizarre when it all started. I don't think it is actually correct to call Bookchin an anarchist. He broke from anarchism when anarchists refused to take his ideas seriously. I think that he referred to his politics as 'Libertarian Municiplaism' or something like that.

I think when you consider this adoption of a rather strange quasi-anarchist ideology, it is not as bizarre as it first seems. There once was a time when the PKK'S old pseudo-Marxism stood them in good stead. Then the post-89 the political environment changed dramatically. After Turkey's rapprochement with Syria in 1998, they found themselves without any state sponsors, and in a position where it seemed like none were coming in the foreseeable future. Therefor they had to re-brand themselves. Part of this meant creating a product that they could sell in the West (democratic, ecological, feminist etc) both to the public at large, and Western states (remember the PKK was making approaches to the US at this time). The other part was in trying to engage with the Turkish state. While the PKK was still for the creation on an independent Kurdish state on Turkish territory, this was always going to be an impossibility. Bookchin's ideas fulfilled both these needs.


Is the PKK presence in northern Syria militarily significant? Are they militarily engaging Syrian rebels?

I think that is militarily significant in that it allowed the Syrian state to use the troops that they had previously used in those areas somewhere else.



Also Vijay Prashad said recently he doesn't think Turkey will directly militarily intervene, that is, invade Syria.The Turkish ruling class may want to but they are constrained.Recently 300 army officers were purged for allegedly supporting a coup attempt and although the army is now solidly pro-Erdogan, morale is still very low.

I don't think that Turkey wants to go to war with Syria. I think that Turkey is fully prepared to attack PKK positions in Syria.


Maybe just as importantly there appears to be mass opposition to an invasion of Syria, as witnessed by protests last week.

Of the demonstrations I saw I don't think that the one in Istanbul, which had the most international publicity was that important. It was called by all of the leftist parties and had about 4,000 people on it, which is pretty small. I think that the demonstrations in the boarder towns such as Akçakala, Reyhanlı, Yayladaği, Nusaybin and Kızıltepe, are of more significance though.

Devrim

[Leo]

Is the PKK presence in northern Syria militarily significant?

Last time I heard, the YPG (Popular Defense Units), which is de facto controlled by them, has over 10,000 armed soldiers - a figure they reached extremely rapidly after declaring their initial aim of 15,000.