Got any plans for the next 19 years?

[Lenina Rosenweg]

I can't testify to the accuracy of this but...


AS ARCTIC sea ice hits a record low, focus is turning to climate ''tipping points'' - a threshold that, once crossed, cannot be reversed and will create fundamental changes to other areas.

''It's a trigger that leads to more warming at a regional level, but also leads to flow-on effects through other systems,'' said Will Steffen, the chief adviser on global warming science to Australia's Climate Commission.

There are about 14 known ''tipping elements'', according to a paper published by the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

In the case of the Arctic ice cap, less ice means less white surface to reflect heat and more dark water to soak it up. This, in turn, leads to higher temperatures, which scientists say will unlock more ancient greenhouse gases frozen into ocean depths and permafrost, speeding climate change, interfering with ocean currents, rainfall patterns and weather.

"I'm pretty certain that we have now passed the tipping point for Arctic sea ice.''
-Will Steffen, chief adviser, Australia Climate CommissionNext to the Arctic ice cap, Greenland experienced melting across 97 per cent of its surface in June and July. It is unclear what the tipping point is for the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, and melts similar to this year's seem to occur every century or so. What is known is that if temperatures keep rising as they are, the ice sheet will start to disintegrate on a massive scale some time in the second half of this century. Tentative estimates from Australian and international studies say that another 1.5 degrees of warming would push Greenland across the threshold into irreversible melt, a process that would continue for centuries. There is enough ice in Greenland alone to raise sea levels off NSW and Victoria by four-to-nine meters.


You might wanna mark some of these dates on your calender


The problem is what you are not hearing.

A recent story in Arctic News lays it out. This is from the abstract:

"Giant fountains/torches/plumes of methane entering the atmosphere up to 1 km across have been seen on the East Siberian Shelf. This methane eruption data is so consistent and aerially extensive that when combined with methane gas warming potentials, Permian extinction event temperatures and methane lifetime data it paints a frightening picture of the beginning of the now uncontrollable global warming induced destabilization of the subsea Arctic methane hydrates on the shelf and slope which started in late 2010. This process of methane release will accelerate exponentially, release huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere and lead to the demise of all life on earth before the middle of this century."

THE DEMISE OF ALL LIFE ON EARTH BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF THIS CENTURY!!

The study goes on to find that "The absolute mean extinction time for the northern hemisphere is 2031.8 and for the southern hemisphere 2047.6 with a final mean extinction time for 3/4 of the earth's surface of 2039.6."

That's 19 years, my Northern Hemisphere friends. And that does not mean that you will wander out to collect the morning paper in 19 years and suddenly everyone dies. It means that each year from now extraordinary events will occur. Instead of an average of seven plus one hundred degree days, you will see ten, then fifteen in two years, then sixty days, and you'll see plus 110 degree days in areas that have never seen them. Droughts will ruin crops in a few years far beyond what we have already experienced. Starvation will be the rule in seven years worldwide and within ten years, the US will be facing not just skyrocketing food prices but food shortages and attendant riots.


http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2012/09/23-0

[Le Socialiste]

This is depressing as fuck. :(

[Ostrinski]

Never heard of Common Dreams

[Lenina Rosenweg]

CD is a liberal/left news site. They have some good stuff.

[Comrades Unite!]

This is depressing as fuck. :(

I agree.

[Comrade Samuel]

Well I guess it's time I make my fortune in the canned food and bottled water market.

[Comrades Unite!]

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/p/global-extinction-within-one-human.html

[Comrades Unite!]

Also, You guys need to remember this is the lowest only in satellite recorded times/

[Le Socialiste]

Also, You guys need to remember this is the lowest only in satellite recorded times/

What does that mean?

[Prometeo liberado]

What does that mean?

I'll assume she means that there was time before satellites.

[Le Socialiste]

I'll assume she means that there was time before satellites.

Lol, didn't catch that. Oops. :blushing:

[Danielle Ni Dhighe]

This is depressing as fuck. :(
It really is.

[Luc]

So it looks like Capitalism will end in the common ruin of the contending classes afterall :(

[Art Vandelay]

So were pretty much fucked and should give up on this communism shit now....or what? At least we can be those assholes shouting I told you so.

[Os Cangaceiros]

Any story that claims that all life on earth will be completely exterminated before 2050 requires some extraordinary evidence.

[Ostrinski]

Any story that claims that all life on earth will be completely exterminated before 2050 requires some extraordinary evidence.I think the fact that they decided to put it in all caps magnifies this fact (or did Lenina do that)

[Workers-Control-Over-Prod]

Let's analyze the problem logically:
The World inhabits 7 Billion humans. Our global agriculture currently produces enough food for 12 Billion humans to eat 2,700 kc a day, that is while 1 billion humans are "permanently severely undernourished".

In the US and West, only 1-3% of the labor force works in agriculture. 50% of the food produced in the US is thrown out before it ever reaches the consumer, France has 60% of its food thrown out before it is ever consumed.

Comrades! Don't let the liberal fascists instill fear into you! Humankind has invented the means to produce our human needs on an immense scale, they are just not being distributed according to humans needs, hence 35 Million humans die a year in undernourishment.
It is true that droughts and floods will be a lot more frequent and that this will cause mass migration, yes. But there are measures that could be taken within months to lower the global temperature by up to 3% if it were of the utmost necessity. Turning the current fossil fuel run economies into renewable energy economies is not beyond our reach, but beyond the current political situation.

Meat can now be produced artificially. Measures could be taken to conservatively ration food and save a lot of food for crises in a massive way. Yes, droughts and other extreme weather situations will increase; yes, massive amounts of people will need to be evacuated from struck areas, but the United States alone spends 1/15 of its yearly GDP (economy's) output on its military. Task forces could be created from these senseless imperialist funds, to go into these crisis struck zones and help evacuations, search&rescue operations, and reparations. Instead of having 1-3% of the labor force in Agricultural sector, double or triple or many more times that labor could could be put to work to find better scientific ways to cope with extreme weather conditions, new infrastructure could be built such as agricultural greenhouses to make better growing conditions etc.

Don't buy into the demoralizing liberal-propaganda! The Overthrow of the Bourgeoisie to the building of Socialism and Communism is of utmost importance, and in fact a necessity for the welfare of humankind!

[ВАЛТЕР]

Good. Fuck this planet. I never liked it anyways. All blue, green, and smug.

Seriously though. I find this hard to believe. Since if it were true, the capitalist class would be doing something about it, considering their lives are at stake too. Unless of course they really are lizard-people from the 13th dimension...

[Dennis the 'Bloody Peasant']

Better put everything I have into canned goods, shotguns and mineral water...

I guess this was always going to happen, humans and the rock they inhabit were never going to go on forever...just sad to think it could be in my (potential) lifetime and that my kid may not see 21.

But that's only if these dates are remotely accurate...I'll check again in a few years and see if I need to get my post -apocalypse survival kit in order.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

If this is true, then it has huge implications. However, I'd want a second, perhaps a third and maybe even fourth opinion since I don't feel capable of evaluating it properly myself.

If it turns out the Earth is properly fucked I won't be happy. :mad:

[Nox]

>inb4 global warming is a myth

[Comrades Unite!]

I suggest everybody look at my post on the last page with the link to the original article that suggests we will soon be extinct.

[Mr. Natural]

Bajitep, The ruling class has been captured by capitalist relations, too, and is "helpless." Capitalism has triumphed; capitalism rules.

I think of this as a science fiction movie in which an alien force has captured Earth. The organization of capitalism is opposed to the organization of life. Life produces for community; capitalism produces a malignant profit ripped from the communities of life.

The human species has been mentally as well as physically captured by capitalist relations.

So which of capitalism's many hanging catastrophes or a combination thereof will do us in? Unless ....

It is certainly time for leftists to commit to a re-revolutionizing of their minds as the first step toward developing viable revolutionary theories and movements. Clearly, the old Marxist revolutionary theory--proletariat wakes up and rises against the bourgeoisie--has failed. Why? What has changed? What needs to change?

Marx and Engels nailed capitalism, but failed at revolution. Marx and Engels may now be permanently indisposed, but Marxism isn't. What needs re-thinking and re-revolutionizing? Marx and Engels would surely have been updating as capitalism developed.

My red-green best.

[Comrades Unite!]

How could anybody believe this shit though? To say that all life will be dead before 2050 borders into parody its that bad.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

My OP was probably a bit confusing. There are two articles I sort of posted from, the first one was from Common Dreams and the second, more alarming article was from Arctic News. When I saw the quote and comment of the AN article my initial reaction was WTF!.
But...yeah, statements like "all life on Earth will be extinct by 2050" is a bit over the top. Anaerobic bacteria would survive and possibly humans in some sort of artificial climate might pull though.Extreme overstatements don't do the cause any good.Not only this, the article predicts "extinction events" occurring in different parts of the world and even has this down to the exact year and month.

Maybe they are right, I don't know. I haven't gone though all their algebra. The basic gist of it though seems to be that methane released by melting artic tundra and permafrost (which began in 2010) will produce an accelerating feedback loop greatly accelerating global climate change.

Extreme alarmism is disempowering, its as if to say that no matter what we d, it won't mater, we're doomed.The only way out of this is for humanity to move to a more advanced mode of production.

Having said this more mainstream stuff does seem alarming.

[Comrades Unite!]

The problem with the article also is that its way too discouraging, It paints a bleak picture(With exaggerated overtones)

I would want to see an expert have a look at this article.

[Ravachol]

Good. Fuck this planet. I never liked it anyways. All blue, green, and smug.

Seriously though. I find this hard to believe. Since if it were true, the capitalist class would be doing something about it, considering their lives are at stake too. Unless of course they really are lizard-people from the 13th dimension...

Yeah, like the capitalist class directs capital and determines its mechanics... :rolleyes:

Honestly whether or not we're all in for a massive die-off (regardless of the fact that capitalist normality is one big permanent die-off) the effects of irreversible global warming which are closing in on us rapidly will have MASSIVE consequences we'd better start trying to tackle. And that won't involve 'the laboring masses rising up and managing their glorious factories and coal mines for themselves through a "rational command-economy"' for sure.

[Commiekirby]

Well on the bright side with how weather patterns are, we'll get breaks from the horrifying heat with winters that will most likely kill you within 30 minutes of exposure.

Yay I guess?

If this was entirely true, (Not going to say it's true or false really with all the studies that say we're going to die in some way or another) maybe it's smart to actually start building communes and all?

[Comrades Unite!]

If anything this means a greater need for a Socialistic society.

This will instill revolution.
Population is fine and food production is a problem to the poor people of the world, There is no halt in food production whatsoever.

Environmental problems are occurring, but not to the extent shown by the article.

Comrades, The liberation of the proletariat is still of high importance.

[Prometeo liberado]

I almost found a way of turning farm animals in to high grade fuel for my SUV. Problem is I keep losing my notes so it looks like another 19+ years of R&D on the ole farm!

http://ts4.mm.bing.net/th?id=I.4586287078639059&pid=1.7&w=178&h=155&c=7&rs=1

Petrol for a day!

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

Much ado about methane - RealClimate.org (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/much-ado-about-methane/)


Could there be a methane runaway feedback?.

The “runaway greenhouse effect” that planetary scientists and climatologists usually call by that name involves water vapor. A runaway greenhouse effect involving methane release (such as invoked here) is conceptually possible, but to get a spike of methane concentration in the air it would have to released more quickly than the 10-year lifetime of methane in the atmosphere. Otherwise what you’re talking about is elevated methane concentrations, reflecting the increased source, plus the radiative forcing of that accumulating CO2. It wouldn’t be a methane runaway greenhouse effect, it would be more akin to any other carbon release as CO2 to the atmosphere. This sounds like semantics, but it puts the methane system into the context of the CO2 system, where it belongs and where we can scale it.

So maybe by the end of the century in some reasonable scenario, perhaps 2000 Gton C could be released by human activity under some sort of business-as-usual scenario, and another 1000 Gton C could come from soil and methane hydrate release, as a worst case. We set up a model of the methane runaway greenhouse effect scenario, in which the methane hydrate inventory in the ocean responds to changing ocean temperature on some time scale, and the temperature responds to greenhouse gas concentrations in the air with another time scale (of about a millennium) (Archer and Buffett, 2005). If the hydrates released too much carbon, say two carbons from hydrates for every one carbon from fossil fuels, on a time scale that was too fast (say 1000 years instead of 10,000 years), the system could run away in the CO2 greenhouse mode described above. It wouldn’t matter too much if the carbon reached the atmosphere as methane or if it just oxidized to CO2 in the ocean and then partially degassed into the atmosphere a few centuries later.

The fact that the ice core records do not seem full of methane spikes due to high-latitude sources makes it seem like the real world is not as sensitive as we were able to set the model up to be. This is where my guess about a worst-case 1000 Gton from hydrates after 2000 Gton C from fossil fuels in the last paragraph comes from.

On the other hand, the deep ocean could ultimately (after a thousand years or so) warm up by several degrees in a business-as-usual scenario, which would make it warmer than it has been in millions of years. Since it takes millions of years to grow the hydrates, they have had time to grow in response to Earth’s relative cold of the past 10 million years or so. Also, the climate forcing from CO2 release is stronger now than it was millions of years ago when CO2 levels were higher, because of the band saturation effect of CO2 as a greenhouse gas. In short, if there was ever a good time to provoke a hydrate meltdown it would be now. But “now” in a geological sense, over thousands of years in the future, not really “now” in a human sense. The methane hydrates in the ocean, in cahoots with permafrost peats (which never get enough respect), could be a significant multiplier of the long tail of the CO2, but will probably not be a huge player in climate change in the coming century.

[Comrades Unite!]

Much ado about methane - RealClimate.org (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/01/much-ado-about-methane/)

Thankfully this relieves the earlier depression I had.
Humans won't be extinct during my lifetime hells yes!