A European Split from American Imperialism

[James Connolly]

The American Empire is in decline, and Europe is feeling the brunt of it. While Neo-Liberalism brought an era of growth and expansion, it is being rooted out due to the wavering of the American colonies. Stagnation and recession is now the norm of Europe and the US, and that suggests we will soon see a split from the economic bodies and see a furtherance of economic nationalism(neo-mercantilism if you will).

Now a split from NATO, which is a military alliance, would go against the interests of Europe, as security isn't cheap, and thus it isn't as likely.

A split at the moment would also be against European interests, since the American Empire is the only thing keeping stability in their respective markets. A split will see a downtrod of their economies, as they were designed to be part of a strict economic coalition.

So my real question is not if, but when. We seem to be seeing the roots of such a split taking place, but it is not going to happen as we speak.

And will we see an emergence of a European Empire, or a dominant European power, to take over where America has been?

[Blake's Baby]

The premises of the question are flawed, I think.

The 'American Empire' has been 'splitting' since the the 1970s - Iran is the most obvious example of a state that used to be part of the US bloc and spectacularly exited it. France has always had a somewhat independent attitude. China, which was from 1974 to 1991 a key ally against the Soviet Union, is now a major competitor.

It didn't implode as spectacularly as the Russian bloc, but bevertheless, since the end of the blocs in the late '80s-early '90s, America has been increasingly desperate to show it's still a superpower, indeed at the moment the only superpower.

The EU, were it capable of uniting as a military and political and economic alliance, would still not be in a position to challenge the US - with German and British money, and French and British military power, it would still be nowhere near the US. Even China is nowhere near the US. America does have 40% of the world's arms budget after all.

But Europe can't unite. Britain, who's a middleweight player both economically and militarily, won't unite with the other main economic player (Germany) or military player (France). Instead, those two often work together, but that means that the European countries that tend to oppose Germany (Netherlands, Denmark, Poland) and the countries that tend to oppose France (Spain, Italy) then find it easy to line up behind America (as in the early stages of the last war in Iraq, where France and Germany came out against the American position, and all the smaller states with the UK supported the US).

There is a dynamic towards challenging American hegemony but I don't think it's going to be possible for a new bloc to emerge in Europe. Germany isn't enough of an economic competitor to attract enough support (by buying the compliance of other states), and France isn't enough of a competitior militarily to go it alone. Even together their interests aren't always the same, as we saw in the Balkans in the 1990s, where France (and initially Britain) supported Serbia, and Germany supported the Slovenes and Croats, then the KLA. Historically, Germany has been driving towards the Gulf (close links with Turkey, the 'Baghdad railway') and France has been more concerned with the Mediterranean and its overseas empire. Their interersts co-incide when they're checking American interference, or pissing off Britain for being an American puppet. But even in 2003, France (under Chirac) was havering about supporting the American position over war with Iraq - it wasn't until there wqas social unrest in France (over pension reforms) that Chirac began playing the national card, 'playing left' for public consumption at home (which generally means playing anti-American).

Anyhow, that's how I see it.

[piet11111]

What makes you put the netherlands against germany ?
The way i see it we are firmly in the german sphere of influence.

[James Connolly]

I didn't mean to make any logical flaws.

My basic question was, "when America falls, who will pick up the scraps in Europe?"

[Blake's Baby]

What makes you put the netherlands against germany ?
The way i see it we are firmly in the german sphere of influence.

Oh, sure - all of Europe is in the German sphere of influence, even the UK much as we pretend we're not.

Is it 'firmly' in the German sphere of influence though? Is the UK 'firmly' in the American sphere of influence?

It's not so much about whether Germany excercises a huge influence - it certainly does, across Europe - it's more whether the Netherlands' government's policy is tending to be pro- or anti-German. Look at Ireland for example, which is so much more 'pro-European' than its closest neighbour, the UK is, and that means pro-German really. You'd think Ireland would be 'firmly in the British sphere of influence' given the relative sizes of our economies and the fact we share a common language. But no, Irish capitalism's dynamic is much more towards Europe, even though the UK is a massive trading partner for Ireland.

In the UK there are basically two orientations for government policy - pro-German ('pro-European' as it's always called) or pro-American. And I'd say that in most European countries a similar situation takes place.

In 2003, Netherlands, Poland, Denmark, Spain and Italy all sent troops to Iraq, along with the UK, while France and Germany opposed the war, invasion and occupation. Why did the Netherlands go against Germany if it's 'firmly' in the German sphere of influence? It can only be, surely, that the Netherlands was seeking to free itself somewhat from German hegemony, by allying itself with America.


I didn't mean to make any logical flaws.

My basic question was, "when America falls, who will pick up the scraps in Europe?"

Right, maybe my misunderstanding then, I thought the question was 'who will push America'?

Depends why America falls, surely? If it falls because of a nuclear war with China (let's say) there won't be a Europe to pick up, in scraps or not. If it falls because of competition from a new superpower who outcompetes it... then I can't really see that new superpower emerging, sorry. Europe isn't it, there are too many contra-dynamics. I don't think China is it either. America can't afford to let China become a rival.

[ckaihatsu]

The American Empire is in decline, and Europe is feeling the brunt of it. While Neo-Liberalism brought an era of growth and expansion, it is being rooted out due to the wavering of the American colonies. Stagnation and recession is now the norm of Europe and the US, and that suggests we will soon see a split from the economic bodies and see a furtherance of economic nationalism(neo-mercantilism if you will).


Jesus, where's a new, undiscovered landmass when you need it...?...!


= )