Peak Oil

[smellincoffee]

A few years ago I encountered the belief that one day soon, we will begin running out of oil. This is built on the fact that one, oil is surely finite; two, that demand is increasing and will continue to increase exponentially, not just because the global economy runs on petroleum -- to fuel the cars, the trucks, the ships, the planes, to be processed into all the plastics we use -- but because global demand is just starting to build. As China and India continue to create the same kind of wasteful lifestyle as the west, demand will far exceed supply. Peak oil is the point that marks diminishing supplies which become increasingly expensive. The United States has already passed its peak point, and did so in the 1970s. What will happen when we can no longer produce enough oil? The price will skyrocket, and wars for it seem quite probable. The infrastructure of the globalized world will deteriorate. Nations like the United States, whose infrastructure is wholly car-oriented (no walking cities or viable transportation like Europe), may cease to function.

I haven't seen any discussion about this or resources in general, so I ask -- has anyone heard of this prediction? What might be the political ramifications? Do leftists who dream of revolution take into consideration the scarcity of resources? What kind of order might emerge if peak oil happens and the present states collapse?


I don't know how likely peak is to happen within the next few decades. I do believe that oil will eventually peak, because the world isn't magic and all supplies are finite. The human race is going to have to find alternatives to globalization based on cheap oil. So another question -- what kind of alternatives might those be?

[Workers-Control-Over-Prod]

Oil won't "run out", it will simply become more and more expensive as it gets harder to drill for in deeper and unfound waters. It is roughly predicted that fossil fuels will go above the price of renewable energies in 15-20 years. But of course, if a workers' government were to take power wherever (most likely during a large crisis of capitalism) the transition away from fossil fuels will become a lot more difficult with collapsed trade etc. This is why we, the revolutionary left, need to really support mass anti-class-coalitionist, worker, reformist parties and try to gain strength for revolutionary policies within the mass party. If we can get a mass worker party to power, and this is done not just in one country, but more, then changing to a green economy is possible. If this would happen, then the pseudo-socialist countries would be faced with a question: who's side to take.

We can just hope that China and other more liberal countries like Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina who have the necessary resources (rare earth minerals [china], lithium [bolivia half the world's supply], Venezuela [southern agricultural products like sugar etc. petroleum] will trade with revolutionary countries; China trades with Cuba at least, and then the western revolutionary countries could go about invest into the necessary fundament for a green economy (electric line infrastructure, train infrastructure and some more infrastructure; all in all, the necessary infrastructure costs amount to roughly 10% of yearly GDP, not to mention the R&D and actual production costs).

If things continue the way they are the next two decades, the planet will be a very different one and more difficult to live in. It is necessary for us to present an intricate economic alternative to stop the blind train of Capital which is running the planet and humanity into the wall.

[Lynx]

The shape of the curve that peak oil follows will determine its effect on us all. A dome shaped curve gives civilization more time to adapt.

[Mr. Natural]

Overshoot (1982), by William R. Catton, Jr., focuses on the peak oil/peak energy problem. Its thesis is that fossil fuels have provided humanity with a one-time energy source that has enabled a massive increase in population, and that this population will crash with devastating consequences as oil runs out.

Catton is a liberal and doesn't understand socialism, but his view is essentially correct under capitalist relations. Energy will run out for a large portion of humanity, and social and ecological devastation will be the result.

Nuclear power under capitalist relations? What a horror! And alternative, ecologically renewable energy sources will not be sufficiently developed or distributed.

The impending "energy catastrophe" is perhaps the most dire of the many "hanging catastrophes" facing humanity, and time is running out. Revolution, anyone?

My red-green best.

[ralfy]

In the long term, localization is inevitable given peak oil and global warming coupled with environmental damage.