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Workers-Control-Over-Prod
30th July 2012, 07:11
The Economist 2008
"MANY economists are now predicting the worst global recession since the 1930s. Such grim warnings discourage spending by households and businesses, depressing output even more. . .
In an updated World Economic Outlook, published on November 6th [2008], the IMF predicted that world GDP growth would fall to 2.2% in 2009, based on purchasing-power parity (PPP) weights, from 5% in 2007 and 3.7% in 2008. In the past, the IMF has said that global growth of less than 3% implied a world recession, so its latest forecasts would push the world over the edge."

Ha! That was the stand in 2008 with worried articles about a recession. Now look at the graph below of yesterday's global growth rates, can you find one over 1% GDP growth? And? The business press go on as usual, seem to be getting used to now four years of permanent recession, but the near collapse as well?? Everyone knows it is about to come, the CEO of Citibank has even suggested that Savings banks should be separated from Investment banks; i think this is a crucial sign: the person that was a large proponent of forcing Clinton to getting rid of the Glass-Steagall Act, the very same act that held banks can't use savings for speculation! We are about to go from this recession, to a global economic crash. As a rule, Banks can always fail when growth is under 3% and speculation is high. Assuming the banks further remain stable (with constant bail outs), the inevitable large collapse of European governments on their debts (Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy... France? ... Germany???), if not inflation from the United States, will tumble down the world economy. Within the next year or two to five, the west will go into a Depression, and since any opposition does not exist in modern western "democracies", the ruling class neo-liberal hegemony (of austerity, privatisation, mass unemployment, wage cuts etc.) will go on. China's housing bubble is currently in an increasing deflationary spiral, and once the rest of its economy is finally capitalized upon within the next year, it will experience a low rate of profit of its production process within the next 8 years as well and crash. Once China falls (since Europe is already in fall), global Capitalism will crash, most likely creating a vacuum in the third world which hopefully will see countries in which the working class is already in control of large portions of their countries (Colombia, India, Nepal, Peru, Kurdistan etc.) take full state power and inspire the western impoverished working classes to revolution.

RedHammer
30th July 2012, 07:20
Does anybody think the economy will improve in the coming years? Please explain your position, if so.

Workers-Control-Over-Prod
30th July 2012, 08:18
What do you mean by "improve"? Everything is relative. In 1936 the US' economy grew by a yearly average of 60%, that was considered good. In 2008, after the biggest crisis since the Great Depression, the "improvement" boom after the bust, was a mere 10% yearly growth. Within the next twenty years capitalism will be toast due to the falling rate of profit of the production process.

Blake's Baby
30th July 2012, 12:09
What graph?

Saw one the other day for the UK that showed the current recession had gone on longer than the 1930s. I'll try to fgure out how to post it.

Was talking to someone on Facebook (on a political page) who was saying 'mark my words, there will be an economic crisis every 5 years...' so I asked him if he thought there would be a recovery between now and 2013, when his next 5-year-crisi is due... he hasn't got back to me yet.

GiantMonkeyMan
30th July 2012, 19:14
I don't know much about the rest of the world but Britain got out of the great depression through an expansion of its manufacturing base and large scale housing construction that stimulated the market (plus a huge war that killed off half the unemployed and secured resources and populations to exploit). Now, after the deindustrialisation of neoliberalism and the rise of the financial sector such a move is impossible especially since it was the housing market that was one of the major factors in creating the crisis and the financial sector is rapidly proving to be as corrupt as everyone joked they were. I seriously can't comprehend how austerity measures could do anything but prolong the crisis because all it's doing is propping up money-sinks while slashing the ability for the majority to actually buy anything. The Tories seem to think that the Olympics are some sort of magical bandage that will restore the economy with its temporary jobs and an increased period of tourism.

Workers-Control-Over-Prod
30th July 2012, 22:02
Update: the graph is now on, must have forgotten it before...