*breaking* MB candidate wins egypt presidental elections

[Sasha]

Wonder what moves the junta and the liberal youth will make...

[Os Cangaceiros]

This news genuinely suprised me when I first heard it.

I thought that things seemed to be shaping up for the ex-PM to be declared the victor...

[The Fighting_Crusnik]

Overall, I don't think it would have mattered who won this election. The military stated before that power was theirs and that pretty much, if any elected government were to become the dominant force in the land, they'd have to take it from the mil... so overall, I see one of three things happening. A, there will be one hell of a civil war when either the mil or the gov does something that is deemed radical in the other's eyes that it calls for punitive action, B, the mil will begin filling the gov with electees and essentially make it a symbolic, puppet government or C, the mil will just step in and purge the gov after awhile and implant an authoritative, totalitarian regime in its place.

[Lynx]

Haven't the MB tried their best to accommodate the military?
Guess not....

[cynicles]

I found this appalling, the Muslim brotherhood busted its hump for western imperialist during the cold war. The least the west could do is force the junta to work with the MB.

[wsg1991]

MB opportunistic character is revealed in The Nasser regimes days , as they accepted financial support from Britain , and probably CIA ,


it's sad how a left nationalist regime lead by young officers ( free officers \ Nasser ) in 1952 to 1970 (probably the closest thing Arabs got to socialism ) , can degenerate that bad , bring reactionary people to power (Sadat ) and become so reactionary , and the main problem with any progressive attempt .

[Os Cangaceiros]

Overall, I don't think it would have mattered who won this election. The military stated before that power was theirs and that pretty much, if any elected government were to become the dominant force in the land, they'd have to take it from the mil... so overall, I see one of three things happening. A, there will be one hell of a civil war when either the mil or the gov does something that is deemed radical in the other's eyes that it calls for punitive action, B, the mil will begin filling the gov with electees and essentially make it a symbolic, puppet government or C, the mil will just step in and purge the gov after awhile and implant an authoritative, totalitarian regime in its place.

I think that, in the long run, the days of unlimited power in the hands of the Egyptian military are numbered.

[Sasha]

I think this was a pragmatic choice the junta caved to under US pressure; either hand over power to the MB and work towards what they call "the turkey" model and keep the massive military aid and a high level of influence or remain in power and face a civilwar on their own without the aid or support.

[bad ideas actualised by alcohol]

Interestin to see how this will affect the relations between Israel and Egypt.

[Sasha]

Interestin to see how this will affect the relations between Israel and Egypt.

not that much probably. other than that meaningfull negotiations between israel and hammas finally might take place. upholding of the peace accords was the only thing that all candidates, from the liberal left, the junta, the MB and the salafists agreed on.

[bad ideas actualised by alcohol]

not that much probably. other than that meaningfull negotiations between israel and hammas finally might take place. upholding of the peace accords was the only thing that all candidates, from the liberal left, the junta, the MB and the salafists agreed on.

Hmm, that's dofferent from what I usually hear.
The usual story I hear, is that Mubarak and his gang (so including the guy that lost) were a lot more accepting of Israel than the MB. However I haven't followed the situation in Egypt that much, so correct me if I'm wrong.

[Sasha]

they say so because thats what their rank and file want to hear and sure, maybe they wont train their comandoes anymore toegther and kind of stuff but one of the first things in the victory speech of musa was his "commitment to the existing peace agreements"

[cynicles]

I pretty sure Hamas like Fatah is up for sale and once Saudi Arabia and Qatar begin shelling out some doe for them they'll cave regardless of what happens in Egypt. I personally think the Egyptian election was little more then a sparing match between Qatar and Saudi Arabia to see who could win influence with the results going in America's favour no matter what. The House of Saud backs Shafiq and the House of Thani backs Mursi! Win win for the US if you ask me given the opportunism of the MB.

[bcbm]

it's sad how a left nationalist regime lead by young officers ( free officers \ Nasser ) in 1952 to 1970 (probably the closest thing Arabs got to socialism ) .
what about south yemen?

[A Marxist Historian]

This news genuinely suprised me when I first heard it.

I thought that things seemed to be shaping up for the ex-PM to be declared the victor...

The whole story for the last year of the so called "Egyptian Revolution," which did not break the power of the military dictators over Egypt at any point, has been behind the scenes negotiations between the MB and the generals.

That the electoral commission decided to give the MB the presidency means that the fix is in, the deal is worked out, and the comedy of the MB's alleged "struggle" vs. the military dictatorship is over, and the actors can now take their bows.

-M.H.-

[wsg1991]

what about south yemen?

commitment to support similar regimes \ parties , in Iraq , algeria ( Ben bella ) , Lebanon , Tunisia ( Ben Youssef) and even non Arabs that are a part of liberation movements

In Yemen , he went too far , by an actual military intervention

[Os Cangaceiros]

The whole story for the last year of the so called "Egyptian Revolution," which did not break the power of the military dictators over Egypt at any point, has been behind the scenes negotiations between the MB and the generals.

That the electoral commission decided to give the MB the presidency means that the fix is in, the deal is worked out, and the comedy of the MB's alleged "struggle" vs. the military dictatorship is over, and the actors can now take their bows.

-M.H.-

While it is true that the military is still in power, I think it's also clear that the Muslim Brotherhood latched unto what was already happening in Egypt in early 2011, rather than initiating it. So actually I don't think they're very important players in the narrative of what happened at all, actually.

[Trap Queen Voxxy]

This news genuinely suprised me when I first heard it.

How? I knew this was going to happen every since the ousting of Mubarak.

[Os Cangaceiros]

The annuling of parliament seemed to set the stage for something else.

[wsg1991]

i just don't see how you can remove military from power ,

[Os Cangaceiros]

*shrug* I'm sure that people probably thought the same way in, say, Spain circa 1950. But less than two decades later (in 1967) there was a revolt which led to a steady erosion of Franco's power until his death. Things change even under the most ruthless regimes, liberatory opportunities are opened up, tyranny is just as temporary as freedom.

The way I see it, as an observer in the USA, is that what happened in 2011 in the mid-east was just the eruption of submerged changes in attitudes which had been developing for a long time. So, while the military is still in charge, I think that there's a culture of resistance developing that will challenge and undermine their authority more and more.

[Mather]

Wonder what moves the junta and the liberal youth will make...


The junta have already made their main move (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_presidential_election,_2012#Presidential_ powers). They have no intention of fully handing over power to any civilian government, regardless of whether Mohamed Morsi or Ahmed Shafik won the election.

Now that Morsi has won, the junta will rule with the Muslim Brotherhood as both represent the interests of the capitalist class in Egypt even if they appeal to different sections of that class.

As for the liberal youth, this is a more complicated matter given that this category covers a lot of different political and social forces. There are those who represent the liberal wing of the Egyptian bourgeoisie, these people have a material interest in Egyptian capitalism being reformed along more modern and democratic lines. Wael Ghonim (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wael_Ghonim) is a good example. This liberal wing wants reforms to take place, reforms which will be of specific benefit to their material and class interests. However, should the working class become more assertive and the class struggle more intense, this liberal wing will fall into line with the rest of Egyptian bourgeoisie and attempt to crush the working class.

However, it is important to realise that not all youths who have taken to the streets are either with the MB/islamists or with the liberals. There are many unemployed, working class and middle class youths who take to the streets for a number of reasons. Some are opposed to junta rule. Some opposed the elections and were boycotting them. Some are opposed to corruption (a big problem in Egypt). Some are pro-secular and fear the rise of islamism. Some are simply protesting the high price of food and utilities as well as the lack of jobs, housing and social services. There are many issues and many factors behind the youth taking to the streets.

You also left out the working class. The 2011 uprising in Egypt was preceded for a few years by a wave of industrial actions that included strikes, protests, occupations and a general strike (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Egyptian_general_strike) in 2008. Working class based parties have also formed in recent years.

As it now appears that the junta will not even tolerate bourgeois democracy in Egypt and that these elections were a total farce, a new realignment of social and political forces is to be expected.

[A Marxist Historian]

While it is true that the military is still in power, I think it's also clear that the Muslim Brotherhood latched unto what was already happening in Egypt in early 2011, rather than initiating it. So actually I don't think they're very important players in the narrative of what happened at all, actually.

They are now. You have an MB president, and the MB has a parliamentary majority, if the military lets the parliament back into existence.

Yes, the MB latched onto what could have become a real revolution, but didn't, and helped the military to smother it. They played zero role in the overthrow of Mubaraq, but now they have gotten themselves into the position of "the party of the revolution," with huge amounts of help from opportunistic Egyptian radicals.

-M.H.-

[Os Cangaceiros]

I don't think that most Egyptians see them as the party of the revolution. On the other hand, if the MB doesn't dramatically turn around the Egyptian economy (which is probably unlikely to happen), then the exact same conditions which led to Mubarak's ouster last year will simply continue to remain and fester.

[wsg1991]

I don't think that most Egyptians see them as the party of the revolution. On the other hand, if the MB doesn't dramatically turn around the Egyptian economy (which is probably unlikely to happen), then the exact same conditions which led to Mubarak's ouster last year will simply continue to remain and fester.

the only candidate who could actually do some difference was Hamdeen subahi
who came a close third

MB did express several Anti socialism ( even social democrat \ nationalization \ state capitalism )

they prompt this Islamic economic , which is Capitalism that has a long Beard

[cynicles]

the only candidate who could actually do some difference was Hamdeen subahi
who came a close third

MB did express several Anti socialism ( even social democrat \ nationalization \ state capitalism )

they prompt this Islamic economic , which is Capitalism that has a long Beard
Not even that, Islam has some provisions for welfare atleast, these guys are full neoliberals.

[Mather]

MB opportunistic character is revealed in The Nasser regimes days , as they accepted financial support from Britain , and probably CIA ,

The opportunistic character of the MB was evident from it's founding in 1928. Along with the fact that the MB have always represented the interests of the petty bourgeoisie and those sections of the bourgeoisie who would benefit from the MB's economic policies.


it's sad how a left nationalist regime lead by young officers ( free officers \ Nasser ) in 1952 to 1970 (probably the closest thing Arabs got to socialism ) , can degenerate that bad , bring reactionary people to power (Sadat ) and become so reactionary , and the main problem with any progressive attempt .

Military coups and military regimes can never bring about socialism or any form of working class liberation. This is a task that can only be done by the working class themselves.

It is also not a case of reactionary individuals, such as Sadat. This type of analysis seems to be based on the great man theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Man_theory). Such an approach fails to take into account the material conditions and the wider social and political dynamics of Egypt under the Free Officers regime.

[wsg1991]

what about south yemen?

just did read few articles about Southern Yemen , i just never stopped by Yemen History , neither read a word about southern Yemen , i just considered a part of the Saudi because of women wearing Niqab ( women there wear full cloak )
it's a Nasserist \ Ba'athist \ Marxist coalition with Marxist as main force : (Revolutionary Democratic Party of Yemen)

[wsg1991]

The opportunistic character of the MB was evident from it's founding in 1928. Along with the fact that the MB have always represented the interests of the petty bourgeoisie and those sections of the bourgeoisie who would benefit from the MB's economic policies.



Military coups and military regimes can never bring about socialism or any form of working class liberation. This is a task that can only be done by the working class themselves.

It is also not a case of reactionary individuals, such as Sadat. This type of analysis seems to be based on the great man theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Man_theory). Such an approach fails to take into account the material conditions and the wider social and political dynamics of Egypt under the Free Officers regime.

individuals such as Nasser or Sadat represent their respective forces that back them , one of things that indicates such struggle was the disputes between both factions in preparation for Yom Kippur war , internal opposition to privatizing or returning of Nationalized assets to their previous owners .

i think it was obvious enough the way i wrote it , i did refer to them reactionary people , then gave Sadat as an example
as people here says Hitler , Stalin , Mao etc , it's obvious who they are referring to

It's this regime Greatest fault ( after Yemen war ) is not allowing independent Workers , almost every article i read criticizing the regime talks about that ,
what i was referring to closer to socialism is the boost in social services , the aggressive nationalization ( control over 52 % of the economy ) , the hostility to Landlords , and top bourgeois , increase of living standards of workers ,

duo to the origins of free officers members ( petty bourgeois \ small scale farmers \ shop owners \ lower middle class ) they couldn't go any further , it simply cannot eliminate capitalism

here http://www.marxists.org/archive/cliff/works/1990/10/struggleme.htm read the facts he mentions as i can't find any other source in English ignore the analysis ( some of the analysis is stupid and funny )

[Mather]

They are now. You have an MB president, and the MB has a parliamentary majority, if the military lets the parliament back into existence.

Yes, the MB latched onto what could have become a real revolution, but didn't, and helped the military to smother it. They played zero role in the overthrow of Mubaraq, but now they have gotten themselves into the position of "the party of the revolution," with huge amounts of help from opportunistic Egyptian radicals.

-M.H.-

You're right.

The junta and the MB do represent different sections of the Egyptian ruling class. The junta represents the Mubarak era elite whilst the MB represents the petty bourgeoisie and those capitalists who are not part of the regime's inner circle of nepotism and corruption. Yet is now clear that these different sections of the bourgeoisie and petty bourgeoisie are falling into line and joining forces.

Given such developments, the need for the working class to develop their own politics and organisation is ever more urgent. The recent wave of industrial actions and working class resistance over the last few years has shown promise. I can only hope that this develops further and gives the working class even more confidence in them defending their class interests.

[cynicles]

You're right.

The junta and the MB do represent different sections of the Egyptian ruling class. The junta represents the Mubarak era elite whilst the MB represents the petty bourgeoisie and those capitalists who are not part of the regime's inner circle of nepotism and corruption. Yet is now clear that these different sections of the bourgeoisie and petty bourgeoisie are falling into line and joining forces.

I don't know, I think they're actually competing with each other for US support.

[Mather]

individuals such as Nasser or Sadat represent their respective forces that back them , one of things that indicates such struggle was the disputes between both factions in preparation for Yom Kippur war , internal opposition to privatizing or returning of Nationalized assets to their previous owners .

I don't doubt that there were disputes within the Egyptian ruling class, especially between the Nasserists and those who supported Sadat. However such disputes were ones that took place within the ruling class and never involved the working class. This just illustrates the need for the Egyptian working class to wage the class struggle on their own terms and with their own organisation, one that is totally independent of any faction of the Egyptian ruling class.


It's this regime Greatest fault ( after Yemen war ) is not allowing independent Workers , almost every article i read criticizing the regime talks about that ,

Given that Nasser's regime represented the Egyptian ruling class, why should we see the regime's suppression of independent working class organisation as a "fault"? Such regimes have no choice but to suppress the working class, given their class composition.

It is important to state that when Nasserist/Ba'athist/Arab nationalist regimes turn away from their 'socialist' and 'radical' policies, they are not betraying the working class as such regimes never represented the working class to begin with.


what i was referring to closer to socialism is the boost in social services , the aggressive nationalization ( control over 52 % of the economy ) , the hostility to Landlords , and top bourgeois , increase of living standards of workers ,

These measures are social democratic and on their own do not entail socialism.

When social democracy was at it's height in Europe from 1945-1970s, many countries had mixed economies with key industries and natural resources being nationalised. The working class also saw their living standards improve yet no one will claim that post-war European social democracy brought us any nearer to socialism.

Also, nationalised industries on their own do not empower the working class. If capitalists control the state, they control all nationalised industries too. For industries to be fully socialised, the working class needs to take control of them.


duo to the origins of free officers members ( petty bourgeois \ small scale farmers \ shop owners \ lower middle class ) they couldn't go any further , it simply cannot eliminate capitalism

+1


here http://www.marxists.org/archive/cliff/works/1990/10/struggleme.htm read the facts he mentions as i can't find any other source in English ignore the analysis ( some of the analysis is stupid and funny )

Given their support for the MB and the recent elections, the points made in Tony Cliff's article seem totally lost on the Revolutionary Socialists (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_Socialists_(Egypt)).

[wsg1991]

I don't doubt that there were disputes within the Egyptian ruling class, especially between the Nasserists and those who supported Sadat. However such disputes were ones that took place within the ruling class and never involved the working class. This just illustrates the need for the Egyptian working class to wage the class struggle on their own terms and with their own organisation, one that is totally independent of any faction of the Egyptian ruling class.




It is important to state that when Nasserist/Ba'athist/Arab nationalist regimes turn away from their 'socialist' and 'radical' policies, they are not betraying the working class as such regimes never represented the working class to begin with.

Also, nationalised industries on their own do not empower the working class. If capitalists control the state, they control all nationalised industries too. For industries to be fully socialised, the working class needs to take control of them.


.
the link describes the important size of petty bourgeois ( non workers middle class ) not to mention farmers and unemployed , workers , as not an absolute demographic majority cannot act on their own , without allying themselves with others classes , specially the non workers middle class and poor farmers

i am not sure if such position has changed later days Of Nasser regime since industrialization effort did occur

secondly we should mention that the regime did also eliminate Nobles , and dealt heavier damage to top Bourgeoisie , and landlords . economically the regime did implant the lower non worker middle class visions , eliminating top bourgeoisie \welfare \ ''nicer'' capitalism

it would be ideal if a workers revolution scenario occur , after the Regime Turning corrupt

the new bourgeois class emerged from the system itself , and workers have no real power against the growing corrupt parts of the free officers to stop them from privatizing the country assets

about Europe , social democracy don't happens out of nowhere , but duo to an active working class \ middle class , that forces the ruling bourgeoisie to have welfare programs , so the system stay in place a little further , i would blame the inactivity of union \ workers , because if there was a real opposition to cutting welfare , i don't think capitalist will do it


BTW , Tony cliff should see the map of Sinai next before and take a nice look of it's open desert before talking about his militia fantasies , he did dare to compare Egypt to Vietnam , that's was stupid ridiculous , and funny

[wsg1991]

LHiBijgr0Js

the content of the video is very important

translation : poor people go to heaven in after life (said by some guy of MB), but don't this poor has a right in this world too ? how about you share some of of your part in this world and take some of their part in the afterlife ?

and there is some other video talks about this guy with beard ( a person from the brotherhood ) that said Socialism is anti religion , taking the land of Landlords and distributed on small farmers is theft . people in that time were less religious , women don't were cloaks , and The MB did use religion in that time

regardless of what you think of Nasser , this videos clearly demonstrate how MB are religious capitalists
i would expect same tactics now , nothing different ,
socialism is blasphemy
poor people go to heaven
patient and satisfaction with your current economic situation is a virtue
not obeying your leaders is not obeying god

( this was said by several Islamists )

[cynicles]

OOO oooo oooo! Post the video where Nasser mocks the brotherhood and the Saudis! That's my fave!

[cynicles]

On a side note I was rather disappointed to hear that the King of Saudi Arabia did not infact die yesterday after I started hearing rumours. I figured the pigs running that country we're starting to drop like flies, very disappointing.