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View Full Version : Belief in an angry God is the strongest predictor of a country’s crime rate



Hexen
20th June 2012, 21:07
http://io9.com/5919873/belief-in-an-angry-god-is-the-strongest-predictor-of-a-countrys-crime-rate


When it comes to predicting a country's crime rate, sociologists typically look at such factors as income inequality and GDP. But new research suggests that a better place to look might be inside the religious beliefs of the population — or more accurately, their belief in Hell and the prospect of eternal damnation. Religion is typically seen as a psychological defense against bad behavior, and even a form of social control. But as researchers from the University of Oregon recently learned, these beliefs can also translate to prosocial behaviors. It's often thought that "religious values" are what drives religious people to be good – but it turns out that it's the fear of punishment that's causing them to exhibit virtuous behavior.
This conclusion, which was reached by Azim Shariff and Mijke Rhemtulla, was made after a thorough investigation involving over 25 years of data that consisted of 143,197 people in 67 countries. What they discovered was that significantly lower crime rates could be found in societies where many people believed in Hell compared to those where more people believed in Heaven.
What they also discovered what that these effects still stood once they accounted for other factors like economic and social well-being. The Heaven/Hell dichotomy within societies proved to be a more accurate way of assessing a country's potential for crime than the usual suspects. And fascinatingly, the difference had to do with the very nature of God's personality.
As an example, the researchers discovered that university students with stronger beliefs in God's punitive and angry nature tended to be the least likely to cheat on an academic task. But stronger belief in God's comforting and forgiving nature significantly predicted higher levels of cheating.
In terms of explanation, the researchers theorized that it has to do with an individual's take on the supernatural. From the Shariff and Rhemtulla paper (http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0039048):

This pattern of results is consistent with theories highlighting the effectiveness of supernatural punishment–specifically–at regulating moral behavior and, as a result, group cooperation. These theories argue that human punishment is a highly effective deterrent to anti-social behavior within groups, but one that faces inevitable limitations of scale. Human monitors cannot see all transgressions, human judgers cannot adjudicate with perfect precision, and human punishers are neither able to apprehend every transgressor, nor escape the potential dangers of retribution. Divine punishment, on the other hand, has emerged as a cultural tool to overcome a number of those limitations. Unlike humans, divine punishers can be omniscient, omnipotent, infallible, and untouchable-and therefore able to effectively deter transgressors who may for whatever reason be undeterred by earthly policing systems.
In other words, belief in a forgiving and kind God is typically used by people as a loophole, or excuse for bad behaviors. Belief in an omniscient and angry God, on the other hand, doesn't allow for that.
Looking ahead, the researchers are hoping to get a better understanding of how religion and prosocial behaviors translate to larger and more wide scale societal effects.
You can read the entire study (http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0039048) at PLoS.
Via Medical Daily (http://medicaldaily.com/news/20120619/10362/religion-hell-belief-society-crime.htm). Image via Shutterstock/Jag_cz.


Note: I don't know where to post this thread at which I was originally thinking of Science forum but since it's about religion I instead posted it here.

Now any thoughts & opinions about this?

Red Rabbit
21st June 2012, 18:50
I personally prefer gods that don't give a shit.

TheRedAnarchist23
21st June 2012, 19:59
I don't see what's new here, we already knew religion was used to control the people.

Rafiq
21st June 2012, 23:12
Nothing more than Idealist horse shit.

The determining factor in crime will always be poverty. Wealthy Bourgeois who believe in the same "God" don't commit the same crimes...

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Revolution starts with U
21st June 2012, 23:17
Is it not possible that the higher belief in hell is not actually caused by the situation in the country, rather than vice versa?

What is this studies methodology for establishing that "belief in hell = low crime" rather than "low crime = higher belief in hell?"

Rafiq
21st June 2012, 23:24
It's not even a credible fucking website, as a source. Whoever made that article was talking straight out of their ass.

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Kenco Smooth
21st June 2012, 23:47
Seriously? The article links to the journal this was published in which is PLOS1 WHICH IS OPEN ACCESS. You are literally one click away from the article. Engage with it if you want to validly criticise it.


Is it not possible that the higher belief in hell is not actually caused by the situation in the country, rather than vice versa?

What is this studies methodology for establishing that "belief in hell = low crime" rather than "low crime = higher belief in hell?"

The article itself concedes that but provides initial reasons to possibly suspect the link is causal (whilst still accepting more research is necesary).


First and foremost, these findings are correlational, and thus reverse-causation and third variable explanations need to be discounted before causal claims can be firmly endorsed. However, at least two reasons suggest that a causal effect of these religious beliefs on crime is a plausible explanation for the pattern of results.
First, obvious third variable candidates such as differences between countries in national personality, wealth, wealth distribution, and general religiosity show no indication of driving the effects. Second, numerous lab studies have established direct causal effects for religious beliefs on both pro- and anti-social behaviors. The possibility remains that the lab effects and the international crime rate effects are entirely unrelated, but parsimony suggests that both are, at least to some degree, a reflection of the same underlying causal story. Nevertheless, future research would be beneficially directed towards addressing possible alternative explanations.

Sea
21st June 2012, 23:59
Nothing more than Idealist horse shit.

The determining factor in crime will always be poverty. Wealthy Bourgeois who believe in the same "God" don't commit the same crimes...

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Exactly. People who have been screwed over by the farces that be are more likely to be religious while also (seeing as how they've been given the shaft) more likely to come to the conclusion that their god is angry at them.

Prometeo liberado
22nd June 2012, 00:38
I like my god to be a baby god. Wrapped up in swaddleing clothes(?) and all camped out in his manger. :unsure:

ckaihatsu
22nd June 2012, 06:53
Unlike humans, divine punishers can be omniscient, omnipotent, infallible, and untouchable-and therefore able to effectively deter transgressors who may for whatever reason be undeterred by earthly policing systems.


* Whew! *

Sure am glad that God is on *my* team...!


= D

Ose
22nd June 2012, 08:51
Another factor contributing to crime rates is, of course, the number and nature of actions that are deemed criminal.

Sperm-Doll Setsuna
22nd June 2012, 10:11
How come U.S. has higher crime rates than Scandinavia then? Hurrhurr.

Kenco Smooth
22nd June 2012, 10:50
How come U.S. has higher crime rates than Scandinavia then? Hurrhurr.

Is the concept of a statistical average genuinely that complicated?

Tim Cornelis
22nd June 2012, 12:00
Nothing more than Idealist horse shit.

The determining factor in crime will always be poverty. Wealthy Bourgeois who believe in the same "God" don't commit the same crimes...

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You do not even attack the premise, methodology, or reasoning of the research, but rather dismiss it on the basis that it does not fit neatly in your already established world view.

Kenco Smooth
22nd June 2012, 13:56
You do not even attack the premise, methodology, or reasoning of the research, but rather dismiss it on the basis that it does not fit neatly in your already established world view.

Didn't you hear? Marx established the royal road to science long ago. If reality contradicts Marx then so much the worse for reality.

Now moving on to actual criticisms, a possible flaw is the specific crime data they use:

"homicide (N = 67 countries), robbery (N = 51), rape (N = 48), kidnapping (N = 46), assault (N = 48), theft (N = 47), drug crime (N = 47), auto theft (N = 28), burglary (N = 43), and human trafficking (N = 39)."

These data were used as they're apparently the most reliable available. Assuming that is the case it makes sense that they're the ones used but it still raises a very serious possibility that it proides a somewhat skewed picture of crime (the international nature of human trafficking in particular places it in a funny position on the list). That said it would be perfectly possible to check this by repeating their methodology but including a broader range of crimes. But that would take a good deal of time which I'm not going to devote to it so as a criticism it is only a plausible one.

Rafiq
22nd June 2012, 15:23
You do not even attack the premise, methodology, or reasoning of the research, but rather dismiss it on the basis that it does not fit neatly in your already established world view.

Read the second part. Wealthy Bourgeois with the same gods don't commit those crimes.

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MustCrushCapitalism
22nd June 2012, 15:31
I'd agree with Rafiq on this one. It's unmaterialist to say that belief in a type of god somehow makes one any more likely to commit a crime.

Perhaps it'd make more sense to say that the bourgeoisie utilizes religion more in countries with a greater poverty rate, where the proletariat might be more easily roused to revolution?

Kenco Smooth
22nd June 2012, 15:49
Read the second part. Wealthy Bourgeois with the same gods don't commit those crimes.

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That's not the question the paper addresses. The paper asks if, with socio-economic status and other immediately obvious factors controlled for, does a belief in heaven or hell correlate notably with a range of crimes.