In what year do you think capitalism will be overthrown in USA and other nations?

[TrotskistMarx]

Dear friends, I know that the capitalist system has been in crisis for a long time in many countries of this world. But some times it has managed to come back, and capitalists always find a way to keep the welfare social programs of most countries like free public schools, free public universities. Free food, free medicine, free medical care, subsidization of electricity. Free food and free medical care given by churches, charities, foundations, etc.. And even capitalist companies give bonuses to their workers and all that. And all those goodies of the public sector and private sector keep the workers and poor people in a state of permanent conformism. So I would like to know if you guys think that all these free stuff, social programs will go on for ever to silence the masses. Or do you think that sooner or later corporations and capitalist-governments will not be able to maintain all these social programs. Along with the higher unemployment rates, the currency devaluations.

Do you think that that the economy will get a lot worse and that will make people in most countries of the world accept the ideology of socialism as the only solution for their lives?

So having said all this, when do you guys really think that we might see governments of the working class in this world?


.

[Blanquist]

Dear friends, I know that the capitalist system has been in crisis for a long time in many countries of this world. But some times it has managed to come back, and capitalists always find a way to keep the welfare social programs of most countries like free public schools, free public universities. Free food, free medicine, free medical care, subsidization of electricity. Free food and free medical care given by churches, charities, foundations, etc.. And even capitalist companies give bonuses to their workers and all that. And all those goodies of the public sector and private sector keep the workers and poor people in a state of permanent conformism. So I would like to know if you guys think that all these free stuff, social programs will go on for ever to silence the masses. Or do you think that sooner or later corporations and capitalist-governments will not be able to maintain all these social programs. Along with the higher unemployment rates, the currency devaluations.

Do you think that that the economy will get a lot worse and that will make people in most countries of the world accept the ideology of socialism as the only solution for their lives?

So having said all this, when do you guys really think that we might see governments of the working class in this world?


.


around 2040 imo

[TrotskistMarx]

Hi, well, I remember that the sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein wrote an article in which he predicted that capitalism will fall around 2030. And other economists have predicted the fall of US economy in 2025. But Wallerstein said that the fall of capitalism doesn't actually automatically mean socialism to replace it. He claimed that capitalism can be replaced by fascism, or by any other type of military dictatorship if the left is not organized and if the oppressed are not awake.


.



around 2040 imo

[Raúl Duke]

2050?
2030?
2020?
IDK, no one knows.
Hell, even Lenin did not know when the Russian Revolution would happen. He even said there will be no revolution at around the year when it did happened.

[Workers-Control-Over-Prod]

Hi, well, I remember that the sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein wrote an article in which he predicted that capitalism will fall around 2030. And other economists have predicted the fall of US economy in 2025. But Wallerstein said that the fall of capitalism doesn't actually automatically mean socialism to replace it. He claimed that capitalism can be replaced by fascism, or by any other type of military dictatorship if the left is not organized and if the oppressed are not awake.


.

I find Wallerstein somewhat of a mysticist. Fascism still uses Markets, it is basically state subsidised monopolist capitalism, and relies on stealing from other nations or sectors of the population to thrive for the capitalist ruling class. Fascism was a historical occurrence, modern or future totalitarianism will have a lot a lot more difficulties to justify authoritarian structures; that break came in the 60's, if Germany started to have open racists in politics and would support another atrocity comparable to Vietnam, we would see an even larger militant uprising believe me.

I wrote a thread here (http://http://www.revleft.com/vb/failure-capitalist-production-t172018/index.html?) about the US capitalism. I predict, among many other socialist and bourgeois economists, that the US will go into hyped-inflation anywhere from 2012 fall to 2013 and if it does not, then there will be a global state insolvency crisis within the next 5 to 10 years; something we have never seen before ever which would have immeasurable devastating social consequences.

[Jimmie Higgins]

We are at the begining stages of two things: a long-term crisis of capitalism like what happened near the end of the 1800s or in the early 20th and ended with WWII. We are also at the beginning of possibly a new wave of working class radicalism and revolts of the oppressed.

It is not like "1848" or "1916" or whatever it's more like be a rebuilding our forces after 20th century cold war communism. We are more like the position early 2nd international parties were in at the beginning than what the Bolsheviks or the high-point of IWW had.

If workers are able to organize themselves independently (not necissarily in one group or party or union) to fight for their distinct class issues, if there is a rise in class consiousness and class struggle, then it might be feasible to make some wild guesses - until then it's just pure imaginative speculation, not even enough to be called a "guess" :lol:

[wsg1991]

not any time closely , it's simply a shift of Imperialist power to other rising powers ( brics : Brazil , russia ; india , china , and south africa )

the chinese- Russian veto is a major historical event ,


we will witness the collapse of eu and usa ,
probably the end of western supremacy

USA in particular not that kind who go down without a fight ,

[Jimmie Higgins]

not any time closely , it's simply a shift of Imperialist power to other rising powers ( brics : Brazil , russia ; india , china , and south africa )

the chinese- Russian veto is a major historical event ,


we will witness the collapse of eu and usa ,
probably the end of western supremacy

USA in particular not that kind who go down without a fight ,Yeah I doubt there can be a political shift in power without a major World-War type conflict. China can't expand under the US's shadow and the US needs to control the rising economic powers to keep it's dominance... two trains, opposite directions, one track.

All the more reason we urgently need to do everything we can to try and build up working class independent organization so if things begin to really heat up in that way, workers and present an alternative rather than end up as fodder for empires.

[wsg1991]

Yeah I doubt there can be a political shift in power without a major World-War type conflict. China can't expand under the US's shadow and the US needs to control the rising economic powers to keep it's dominance... two trains, opposite directions, one track.

All the more reason we urgently need to do everything we can to try and build up working class independent organization so if things begin to really heat up in that way, workers and present an alternative rather than end up as fodder for empires.

china still lack technology and the military ability to compete with USA
what we might see is the decline of capitalist democracy systems , as those systems were flawed from the beginning , all what left from the democratic system in the USA is the look and shape and needed to be buried long time ago . when appearances are too expensive to upkeep they fall


well new version of capitalism will raise instead , Nazism and it's variants , Chinese model , military dictatorships , maybe direct corporatism governments , maybe some new model

anyway a WW3 would be a good idea to end this miserable specie

[ckaihatsu]

I predict, among many other socialist and bourgeois economists, that the US will go into hyped-inflation anywhere from 2012 fall to 2013 and if it does not, then there will be a global state insolvency crisis within the next 5 to 10 years; something we have never seen before ever which would have immeasurable devastating social consequences.


This would be an understandable orthodox viewpoint, going by the economics numbers alone, but I have my doubts -- if it was *any other* country in the world that's exactly what would happen, certainly.

However, the economic system of world capitalism would have to somehow find a replacement for the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, and we've seen what the U.S. military does to countries that *try* to ditch it: Iraq and Libya. So between the racketeering and the petro-dollar, what could possibly dislodge the U.S. from its hegemony?

[TrotskistMarx]

You are wrong, there have been attempts to overthrow capitalism, but they failed. But the whole world is still capitalist, because the left of this world is too divided, too many egocentric leftists that behave like right-wingers, leftists that hate other leftists, the mind-manipulating power of TV and many other factors


.


It's already been overthrown for a long time now. We just haven't told you because you're part of a massive social experiment.

[LeftCoastComrade]

If china becomes a complete capitalist country then it might take longer than 2025. I dont think anyone can actually know how long it will take for capitalism to be overthrown. It might be in 2050 or it might be next year. Capitalism is an unstable economic system, so I do think overthrowing it can be achieved within the next couple of years. All it takes is one bubble to burst.

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

You are wrong, there have been attempts to overthrow capitalism, but they failed. But the whole world is still capitalist, because the left of this world is too divided, too many egocentric leftists that behave like right-wingers, leftists that hate other leftists, the mind-manipulating power of TV and many other factors


.

I don't think the main reason why Capitalism exists is because the SWP and SPEW hate each other, and a few Marxist Leninists and Trotskyists are still arguing over 'revolution, man'.

That's a wholly un-materialist analysis. If we are to be materialists - Marxists - about this, we can presume a few things:

capitalism is powerful: very much so militarily, very much so in terms of holding all the aces in terms of power, know-how and being the 'incumbents' of power, so to speak. Still pretty powerful financially, too.

capitalism still 'works', in that the rate of profit, in general, is still in positive terms. The declining rate of profit has probably been offset by a large increase in technology over the past decade or two, which shows no sign of abating. Thus the reserve army of labour increases, workers have to accept lower nominal wages, costs decrease and the mark-up (i.e. profit), increases. Economies of scale, automisation also factor into a lowering of costs which increase profit, even if prices fall.

there is, at this time, no credible alternative that has been credibly put forward. There are poor alternatives that have been credibly put forward: they are poor because they are not really alternatives, they do not seek to overthrow capitailsm (Hollande, for example) or they are reactionary (the results of the Arab Spring, 2011). There are also good alternatives that have been poorly put (the case for real democracy in the Arab Spring, 2011 as one, and the big one being Socialism of course). However, as you can see, this last one - credible alternatives poorly put across - is but one factor in a myriad of why Capitalism is still on top.

Finally, you have to remember that, in this global world, power lies strongly with the developed nations. They are nuclear, they are financial giants, they are the media and the propaganda centres and they have the biggest cocks (militaries), so to speak. Capitalism has delivered (or rather, under Capitalism,people have experienced) a good standard of living to a great number of people in developed nations, and so in these nations the circumstances are simply not all that ripe for revolution, generally. Of course, there is evidence that the contradictions of financial Capitalism are beginning to show cracks even in developed nations - blocs like the EU are coming tumbling down as we speak, though of course you have to factor in how much is due to Capitalism itself, and how much is due to genuine bad policy-making within Capitalism.

I imagine that, given all of the above and more that I have not been able/bothered to include, Capitalism probably has a fair way to run yet.

[Jimmie Higgins]

You are wrong, there have been attempts to overthrow capitalism, but they failed. But the whole world is still capitalist, because the left of this world is too divided, too many egocentric leftists that behave like right-wingers, leftists that hate other leftists, the mind-manipulating power of TV and many other factors
.I think it's the opposite. The left is divided and insular because there is a lack of objective class fight-back and the left tends to blame each-other for lack of working class struggle or fights over the struggle-scraps that have been available over the last generation.

The lack of struggle from out side comes from people feeling defeated which allows more conservative answers to problems to gain traction. Oh, the bosses are too powerful, it's pointless to try and strike, so negotiation is more "realistic". etc.

[Prometeo liberado]

Having looked at my day planner I can tell you with almost absolute certainty that on or around the early afternoon of March 6th, 2013 we'll be getting it on. I have already taken my vacation days for this year so I don't see it happening anytime before that. Please allow for traffic so as to not push this start time into the late afternoon lunch rush. BYOB. And please be kind, rewind! Stupid thread.

[Comrade Hill]

Capitalism is not going to "end" until the working class overthrows it. That time cannot be predicted. I find it very unlikely that capitalism is going to collapse on it's own. Whenever profits fall the capitalists will cut the labor costs and they will proceed to business as usual.

Some of the biggest things that are standing in the way of revolution are revisionism and the distractions coming from mainstream politics. The USA hardly even has a presence of social democracy. The only way right now is mass persuasion and propaganda, while acting in self-defense from the state.

Many on the left are also being persuaded by revisionism, education and propaganda needs to stop that as well.

[Mr. Natural]

The human species, not capitalism, will be overthrown. Unless, that is, what little is left of the left gets off its dead, dogmatic ass and re-establishes some revolutionary theorizing and spirit.

The left has become profoundly conservative as a consequence of the triumph of capitalism's systemic institutions and values. That comrades will not acknowledge that this is indeed our situation is a measure of this conservatism.

Another measure of this conservatism on the left is the retreat into the classics. Marx and Engels were consummate revolutionaries and they were right, but they died a century-and-a-half ago. Where are the comrades who were to be updating revolutionary theory as capitalism advanced? Other than some cultural insights and a postmodern resignation to The System, what has the left produced since 1917?

It doesn't have to be this way, but for the left to re-emerge to take on its historic task, it would have to engage the new sciences of organization that it has been almost religiously avoiding.

[ckaihatsu]

technical correction:





the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency





Pointing to the failure of Austria’s Kreditanstalt bank in 1931, which prompted the dissolution of the global monetary system, Wolf writes, “The fear must now be that a wave of banking and sovereign failures might cause a similar meltdown inside the euro zone, the closest thing the world now has to the old gold standard.”




Tensions mount as European leaders scramble to avert Spanish banking collapse

http://wsws.org/articles/2012/jun2012/euro-j08.shtml

[LeftAbove]

The more the workers know, the sooner it'll happen. Possibly when unemployment reaches an all time low, like in the Great Depression when socialistic thought was at its prime.

[Astarte]

Capitalism itself probably won't last to see the 22nd centrury - the state on the other hand will probably be around until the 100th or so.

[Zukunftsmusik]

The more the workers know, the sooner it'll happen. Possibly when unemployment reaches an all time low, like in the Great Depression when socialistic thought was at its prime.

A new great depression doesn't necessarily end capitalism, as the last one didn't. You're of course familiar with what happened in Germany and Italy and Europe (and the world for that matter) in general after the last depression.

[Sentinel]

Purged non-serious and spam posts from this thread. General verbal warning for spam.

Everyone really needs to learn that no matter how stupid you think a question is, sarcastic and non-serious replies are not ok in the Learning Forum. This kind of behaviour discourages people from asking questions, and is counterproductive in the extreme to the purpose of the Learning forum and the board as whole.

Especially those of you who are long time users should know this.

[Tim Cornelis]

As long as we acknowledge that guessing is meaningless and of no value (though I enjoy fantasising about future revolutions to cope with the miserable state we're in), I'd say the impact of the current economic crisis may have a structural impact.

Interestingly enough, Sweden is an image of the future. The crisis that started in 2007/2008 began as a real estate bubble in the United States. Sweden has gone through the 'exact' same crisis in the 1990s. When this economic crisis broke out in Sweden, unemployment was generally low (1-4%), but after the economy recovered unemployment is between 10-20% structurally. We see that the economy of Sweden has not recovered from a crisis for over a decade.

If (but and only if) Sweden tells us anything, it is that the European crisis will be long and harsh, maybe lasting till 2020, and its impact will be felt long after (continued high structural unemployment). Especially with the mounting national debts which Sweden didn't have to cope with.

All in all this will lead to renewed intensification of class struggle in Europe. I predict (based on almost nothing) that around 2020 we will have a 'France 1968' situation, though even less intense.

Then around peak oil (if it happens at that time) in the 2040s/2050s/2060s we may have a successful revolution. But this is based on even less.


I predict, among many other socialist and bourgeois economists, that the US will go into hyped-inflation anywhere from 2012 fall to 2013 and if it does not

It will not. Hyperinflation is a boogey man, based on nothing really (though I based my above assumptions/predictions on nothing really either, don't point out the irony). Hyperinflation will only happen if an obscure, corrupt, isolated despot or populist comes to power, or--for some reason--national debt requires immediate repayment. Neither of these is going to happen.

[Lucretia]

22 seconds after 3:15 PM GMT, Friday, 3 March, 2079.

[Lenina Rosenweg]

I find Wallerstein somewhat of a mysticist. Fascism still uses Markets, it is basically state subsidised monopolist capitalism, and relies on stealing from other nations or sectors of the population to thrive for the capitalist ruling class. Fascism was a historical occurrence, modern or future totalitarianism will have a lot a lot more difficulties to justify authoritarian structures; that break came in the 60's, if Germany started to have open racists in politics and would support another atrocity comparable to Vietnam, we would see an even larger militant uprising believe me.

I wrote a thread here (http://http://www.revleft.com/vb/failure-capitalist-production-t172018/index.html?) about the US capitalism. I predict, among many other socialist and bourgeois economists, that the US will go into hyped-inflation anywhere from 2012 fall to 2013 and if it does not, then there will be a global state insolvency crisis within the next 5 to 10 years; something we have never seen before ever which would have immeasurable devastating social consequences.

I cannot find your thread. Why do you think there will be global hyper-inflation? Isn't it more likely that we're in for a period of devaluation?

Anyway, I think a lot can and will happen over the next 20 years.

[aty]

As long as we acknowledge that guessing is meaningless and of no value (though I enjoy fantasising about future revolutions to cope with the miserable state we're in), I'd say the impact of the current economic crisis may have a structural impact.

Interestingly enough, Sweden is an image of the future. The crisis that started in 2007/2008 began as a real estate bubble in the United States. Sweden has gone through the 'exact' same crisis in the 1990s. When this economic crisis broke out in Sweden, unemployment was generally low (1-4%), but after the economy recovered unemployment is between 10-20% structurally. We see that the economy of Sweden has not recovered from a crisis for over a decade.

If (but and only if) Sweden tells us anything, it is that the European crisis will be long and harsh, maybe lasting till 2020, and its impact will be felt long after (continued high structural unemployment). Especially with the mounting national debts which Sweden didn't have to cope with.

All in all this will lead to renewed intensification of class struggle in Europe. I predict (based on almost nothing) that around 2020 we will have a 'France 1968' situation, though even less intense.

Then around peak oil (if it happens at that time) in the 2040s/2050s/2060s we may have a successful revolution. But this is based on even less.


We had a real estate bubble caused by deregulation of the credit market by the central bank on the pressure from IMF...

This was among the tactics used to break the swedish working class that were starting to introduce the wage founds that would eventually lead to the workers owning the means of production togheter. This created a huge upsurge in class struggle from the capitalists, swedish workers responded with wild cat strikes.

When the bubble collapsed in 1990s and forward a right wing government was elected at the same time and at the same time the eastern bloc collapsed.
The only way forward for politicans then was the neoliberal austrian austerity. This did not how ever create a new class struggle from the workers, the working class got split instead between unemployed and employed, fascists got much more support and presence on the streets etc.

The rate of profit in production was between 1-5 percent in the years before the collapse, after the crisis profit levels was back on 10-15 percent. And the unemplyment went from 1-4 percent too 6-12 percent. Always look at the profit levels! If they are low there will be a crisis soon and after the crisis the levels should be back up, the tendency of the rate of profit to fall can be applied very well to Sweden.
The economy also depended on the fact that it was only Sweden that was in a crisis, we got some help from this fact.


This time it is different, back then it was the keynesian model that collapsed, now the neoliberal model have also collapsed. We have an even greater real estate bubble right now that is begining to collapse, especially now when the crisis in Europe will drag our economy down.
What should Sweden then turn too?
Keynesianism failed, neoliberalism failed, what is left? Here we socialists have too find our place, too present some sort of an alternative. We have to take control over the means of production ourselves, and not with wage founds this time.

This crisis is going to last for years and years, I cant see when or how the crisis will be solved. It cant be done, you cant do keynesianism because debt is a large part of the problem, you cant do neoliberal asuterity because it does not produce any growth, it contracts the economy and makes the crisis even deeper.

Will this fact produce more class struggle in the future, yes it will. Will this fact produce more fascism, yes it will. But the fascists also want capitalism, they are the last defenders of capitalism and have no better answers than anyone else on how to solve this crisis. If they take power the crisis will not be solved but become worse and the capitalists dont like that and not the workers either. I honestly think that we do not have much to worry about from the fascists in this crisis, the may grow for a while but it will become obvious that they do not produce any answers.

This leaves the scene open for us. I dont even think most of us really have understood what sort of position we are in at the moment.

[Eagle_Syr]

The existence of a middle class is the largest barrier to revolution, in my opinion. While it is true that, in Marxist terms, the middle class are largely proletarian, they nonetheless lead comfortable enough lives, given just enough by the bourgeoisie establishment that the idea of revolution is the last thing they want.

Comfortable, middle-class people don't want revolution. Revolution is risky and requires effort. They are fine with the status quo.

The middle-class is the buffer between the elite in power and the impoverished working masses who do want to revolt in the streets and riot.

[JPSartre12]

The existence of a middle class is the largest barrier to revolution, in my opinion. While it is true that, in Marxist terms, the middle class are largely proletarian, they nonetheless lead comfortable enough lives, given just enough by the bourgeoisie establishment that the idea of revolution is the last thing they want.

Comfortable, middle-class people don't want revolution. Revolution is risky and requires effort. They are fine with the status quo.

The middle-class is the buffer between the elite in power and the impoverished working masses who do want to revolt in the streets and riot.

I'd agree, more or less, that the existence of a middle class is stopping a real revolution.

But I'd also disagree that there even is a middle class in the first place.

Let me explain: I'm thinking that all we really have in the world are the bourgeoisie and the proletariat, to be a bit fundamentalist. But the corporate powers that be have created all these little things (credit, interest, payment plans, loans, stocks, grants, etc) that allow the proletariat to 'stretch out' it's money and think that it has more money than it actually does. This is why Chomsky likes to refer to the modern-day proletariat as the "precariat", rather than still the proletariat, because they live in a "precarious" position that is reasonably comfortable but only a few big bills or a disaster away from complete bankruptcy.

So, I think that there isn't really going to be much of a revolution because the proletariat/precariat/middle class are awfully content with where they are and don't realize that they are being exploited. If we educate them, things might change.

[ckaihatsu]

[T]he corporate powers that be have created all these little things (credit, interest, payment plans, loans, stocks, grants, etc) that allow the proletariat to 'stretch out' it's money and think that it has more money than it actually does.




So, I think that there isn't really going to be much of a revolution because the proletariat/precariat/middle class are awfully content with where they are and don't realize that they are being exploited. If we educate them, things might change.





This crisis is going to last for years and years, I cant see when or how the crisis will be solved.




Keynesianism failed, neoliberalism failed, what is left?


I'm hearing some strange admixtures of pessimism and optimism on the topic of revolution here....

If we recognize that the ruling class' schemes are hitting the wall in a momentous way right about now, the effects of that are going to be inescapable for the *entire world's* people.

As long as things are going *okay* for themselves, people won't care much about the technicalities of how the pie is being split up -- as long as they're getting a share of that in realtime.

But when the pie turns to shit and is more of a *complication* for everyone then the game becomes 'hot potato' or 'musical chairs' because it can't be resolved according to the scheme's internal logic anymore -- there's no actual expansion or growth, so people either have to become individually barbaric or else question the *system* in an equitable collective *political* way.

I'm keeping my eyes on the U.S.'s branches of government right now because we will tend to see a *constitutional crisis* develop quickly, right after the *economic* crisis takes hold -- just like in the early part of Bush's term in 2000-2001, before 9-11 saved his presidency.





This leaves the scene open for us. I dont even think most of us really have understood what sort of position we are in at the moment.




Here we socialists have too find our place, too present some sort of an alternative. We have to take control over the means of production ourselves, and not with wage founds this time.


Take a look at my blog entry....

[Eagle_Syr]

I'd agree, more or less, that the existence of a middle class is stopping a real revolution.

But I'd also disagree that there even is a middle class in the first place.

Let me explain: I'm thinking that all we really have in the world are the bourgeoisie and the proletariat, to be a bit fundamentalist. But the corporate powers that be have created all these little things (credit, interest, payment plans, loans, stocks, grants, etc) that allow the proletariat to 'stretch out' it's money and think that it has more money than it actually does. This is why Chomsky likes to refer to the modern-day proletariat as the "precariat", rather than still the proletariat, because they live in a "precarious" position that is reasonably comfortable but only a few big bills or a disaster away from complete bankruptcy.

So, I think that there isn't really going to be much of a revolution because the proletariat/precariat/middle class are awfully content with where they are and don't realize that they are being exploited. If we educate them, things might change.

That is exactly what I said: the middle class are proletarian in Marxist terms, but are comfortable enough that they would not support revolution

This is also what separated the United States from countries like Mexico and Russia, which historically had small "middle classes" and therefore revolutions did occur (to varying degrees of success)

I think class consciousness needs to happen if we are to be successful

[Workers-Control-Over-Prod]

not any time closely , it's simply a shift of Imperialist power to other rising powers ( brics : Brazil , russia ; india , china , and south africa )

the chinese- Russian veto is a major historical event ,


we will witness the collapse of eu and usa ,
probably the end of western supremacy

USA in particular not that kind who go down without a fight ,

LOL, here (http://www.revleft.com/vb/group.php?do=discuss&gmid=51063#gmessage51063). Western Imperialism is the only reason global Capitalism still sorta-is-hanging-on. If the west falls, Capitalism falls.

[MustCrushCapitalism]

Who knows? If the current crisis worsens, it could be soon, if not, it'll be later. This isn't the kind of thing where it's so simple to predict.

[ckaihatsu]

I'm keeping my eyes on the U.S.'s branches of government right now because we will tend to see a *constitutional crisis* develop quickly, right after the *economic* crisis takes hold -- just like in the early part of Bush's term in 2000-2001, before 9-11 saved his presidency.


In hindsight I might append that the nexus of world capitalism's valuations has shifted to the Eurozone, so we're seeing the "constitutional crisis" playing out *there* instead of as it's conventionally been done with expectations oriented towards the U.S....

[TrotskistMarx]

Eagle, you are right, there are many, many many factors, causes and motives that are an impediment for people getting off their comfortable zones and supporting a marxist workers revolution in most countries of the world. And one of the major causes are the existance of a large middle class in many countries. That's why I call the middle class as an alternative, second exploiter, oppressor, ruling class. And to me, the real middle class of the USA are people who are not rich like Donald Trump, Alex Rodriguez, celebrities, Ted Turner, many politicians, and people who are not low-income low-wage workers like Mcdonalds workers, Wal Mart workers, unemployed, etc. For me the middle class would be people who earn between 50,000 and 300,000 a year. Over 250,000 might be considered part of the upper class. But again you have a strong point when you say that the existance of a large middle class in USA, Europe, and even in second world and third world nations is one of the greatest impediments for a socialist revolution.

Another barriers in USA are the main 7 corporate TV channels of the country (CNN, FOX news, ABC, CBS, NBC, CBS, and the spanish mind-manipulator channels: UNIVISION and Telemundo). And the capitalist newspapers The Washington Post, New York Times and the other ones.

There are many other causes like low-self esteem, low knowledge in the masses, conformism, fear, pessimism etc.


.


.




The existence of a middle class is the largest barrier to revolution, in my opinion. While it is true that, in Marxist terms, the middle class are largely proletarian, they nonetheless lead comfortable enough lives, given just enough by the bourgeoisie establishment that the idea of revolution is the last thing they want.

Comfortable, middle-class people don't want revolution. Revolution is risky and requires effort. They are fine with the status quo.

The middle-class is the buffer between the elite in power and the impoverished working masses who do want to revolt in the streets and riot.

[ckaihatsu]

Events in Egypt right now are reminiscent of what happened in the U.S. in 2000....





I'm keeping my eyes on the U.S.'s branches of government right now because we will tend to see a *constitutional crisis* develop quickly, right after the *economic* crisis takes hold -- just like in the early part of Bush's term in 2000-2001, before 9-11 saved his presidency.





The state-owned Al Ahram newspaper on Friday cited unnamed government figures and Western diplomats as saying the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission was set to announce the victory of Shafiq on Sunday evening. The article reported a source as saying the SCAF-backed candidate would be credited with having received 50.7 percent of the vote.

Sources at the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission, the newspaper reported, would not confirm the reports of its intention to declare Shafiq the winner.

Earlier in the week a group of judges monitoring the elections, the Judges of Egypt, issued a statement unofficially declaring Mursi the winner. The judges said Mursi had won the election with about 900,000 more votes than Ahmed Shafiq.

http://wsws.org/articles/2012/jun2012/egyp-j23.shtml

[Regicollis]

I believe capitalism will be ended one of the first years after the western working class reaches the critical level of class consciousness. When that time is depends on the ability of socialists to agitate and raise consciousness.

[Ocean Seal]

We are more like the position early 2nd international parties were in at the beginning than what the Bolsheviks or the high-point of IWW had.

That seems a bit generous but I see your point.

[Le Rouge]

Nevaaar!

[Eagle_Syr]

I think capitalism is digging its own grave with globalization. However, it is possible that globalization will create comfortable, complacent middle-classes in the third world, which would hinder revolutionary efforts.

[ckaihatsu]

The growing divergence between Germany and France, whose alliance was at the center of the project for a unified capitalist Europe, heralds the unraveling of the EU and the reemergence of the virulent national antagonisms that led in the last century to two world wars.

http://wsws.org/articles/2012/jun2012/euro-j27.shtml


Back to the conflicts of the twentieth century -- ??

Try back to the Hundred Years' War -- !