lets speculate a bit on "conspiracies" you wouldnt be shocked to see happen soon....

[Sasha]

we live in suddenly volatile times of economic and bourgeois political crisis we havent seen in decades.
we al know shit in these times can happen that you never expected to see (again).
while the right (and some here) are prommising FEMA death camps, lets see what once impropable scenario's suddenly seem a lot more probable...

i'll start with my prediction that if the next greek ellections again do not result in a workable pro-austerity coalition we will see a new military junta grabbing power there. While they probably would have to leave the euro zone and maybe be temporarly suspended from NATO years later it will turn out that this happend with full support of the other NATO members and EU members as agreed in the backrooms during the ECB frankfurt and NATO chicago summits in may and the junta remained financially supported.

please keep this thread on the economic, military and political...

[Tim Cornelis]

A military junta doesn't fit the post-Cold War political scene. An unelected technocracy would be more likely looking at political developments. A technocracy has the advantage of being passable as a "fair government" whereas a military dictatorship is not. On the other hand, a technocracy would not have the ability to suppress opposition to keep the people at bey as it will lose its image of being a "fair, business" government that will solve the problems of Greece and step down after some four years or so. A military dictatorship has the advantage of being able to suppress opposition as its image is already especially negative. Another disadvantage would be that a military dictatorship is more likely to cause a civil war.

Nevertheless, both these scenarios are more unlikely than liberal democracy persisting in Greece.

If a civil war breaks out at least I know what I'll be doing next year.

[Per Levy]

i'll start with my prediction that if the next greek ellections again do not result in a workable pro-austerity coalition we will see a new military junta grabbing power there.

that could be quite likely, with all the "elections chaos" going on a coup to restore "order" and to make things easier for eu and so on. i doubt that in case of a coup that they throw greece out of the nato, i mean they didnt throw greece out the last time it was run by the military or they didnt throw out turkey when it was ruled by a dictatorship(if im wrong please correct me).

[Sasha]

must say i was quite shocked (yes i know i shouldnt but still) to see how casually the media and politicians here are already for months making statements that "democracy is just one of many possible systems" and "the future to economic prosperity is china" etc etc i would say it seems the writing is really on the wall...

[Lenina Rosenweg]

If have a feeling that if there are Greek elections next month and some sort of Syriza/left coalition government emerges there is likely to be a US/NATO direct "humanitarian" intervention in Syria. (not that I think much of the Assad dictatorship). This will be as a warning to Syriza to "make the correct decision" in regards to debt payments. Along with that we are likely to see a deliberately brutal military crackdown in Egypt with a massacre or two sponsored not by the army but by the police/security.

The US/EU ruling groups will have ways of making their intentions known.I don't think a Greek military coup is likely, the Greek people have a horrible memory of military rule and a coup at this juncture is likely to result in direct civil war.

As I remember one of the last things Papendreou did as PM was to fire some of the top generals.

[ВАЛТЕР]

The thing about Greece and the prospect of another civil war is that the far-right has already organized into militias, and as Psycho posted on another thread, the Police force is already pretty much on the side of the fascists. The left, as far as I know has not organized a response to such aggressive tactics. The left will be caught flatfooted if a civil war was to break out as the military and police have already made their positions clear.

We all know that NATO and the EU will not allow a revolution or even a change in government of any sort that isn't willing to cooperate with Washington, Berlin, and Brussels. I think we will see a lot of polarization this year in Greece, however I doubt a civil war will come yet. As a civil war would be catastrophic for the EU, especially should the radical left take control. A victory for the left in Greece could give the people of Europe if not the world a huge moral boost. This is not something that the forces of capital want to deal with. However, capital will do anything to prevent this from happening and they're the ones with the media and propaganda machines.

Either way, I don't think the situation in Greece is going to get handled peacefully, however I doubt there will be a revolution just yet, though we are getting there.


They want war? They got it...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/Flag_of_the_International_Brigades.svg/225px-Flag_of_the_International_Brigades.svg.png

[Sasha]

If have a feeling that if there are Greek elections next month and some sort of Syriza/left coalition government emerges there is likely to be a US/NATO direct "humanitarian" intervention in Syria. (not that I think much of the Assad dictatorship). This will be as a warning to Syriza to "make the correct decision" in regards to debt payments. Along with that we are likely to see a deliberately brutal military crackdown in Egypt with a massacre or two sponsored not by the army but by the police/security.

turkey will take the iniative if a invasion of syria happens... thought it unlikely a few months ago but now can see it happen.
think egypt will eventually just transition to a economic liberal/bourgeois wing of the muslimbrotherhood though



As I remember one of the last things Papendreou did as PM was to fire some of the top generals.

yeah but that was because a coup seemed apperntly probable enough at that time so that is earlier an confomation to my scenario than the opposite

[Os Cangaceiros]

I don't really get why people seem to think that a far-left government in Greece would be such a huge shock to the rest of Europe and the USA, so much so that it would warrant an invasion. It's far more likely that Greece would simply be expelled from the euro zone. In Germany there has been an idea circulating for a while now of a two-tiered system for the euro currency, aka one euro for the "deadbeat countries" (Spain, Greece, Italy, etc) and one for the rest (Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and (through gritted teeth) France). That is a possibility too.

The bottom line is that I think many people are perfectly willing to simply let Greece collapse into the banana republic of Europe, which is going to happen anyway, austerity or no austerity, euro zone or no euro zone. Europe's banks are stronger now than they were a year ago, the risk of direct "contagion" from Greece is less. I think countries like Spain or Italy are much more worrisome at this point.

[gorillafuck]

while the right (and some here) are prommising FEMA death camps, lets see what once impropable scenario's suddenly seem a lot more probable...are you talking about the US, or the netherlands?:confused:

because the only FEMA I know about is american, and no right wing politician here has promised FEMA death camps...

[Os Cangaceiros]

I think he's talking about Alex Jones...