French election results

[durhamleft]

Hollande 28%
Sarkozy 26%
Le Penn 20%
Melenchon 11%

Turnout 80%

So what are everyone's thoughts on this?

Personally, I'm pretty happy with the result. I think Sarkozy has been losing the plot recently- I'm not convinced by either his (a) pandering to the right or (b) cosying up with the EU.

Bit concerned by some of Hollande's policies though- top rate of income tax of 75% would be in my opinion sending out all the wrong signals from France- though I sympathise with most his politics.

Le Penn is the big story in my opinion, shows how far the Right in Europe is coming a long- and it's surely the biggest concern in EU politics at the moment. Would hate to see these 20%s in France and Holland move up to <30%.

Melenchon result seems pretty disappointing for him- I'd have thought this would be the far left's chance to shine.

[Lynx]

There was a time when Uncle Sam had a 94% top rate income tax. What signal was he sending?

[durhamleft]

There was a time when Uncle Sam had a 94% top rate income tax. What signal was he sending?

In an era where people tended to remain in their country, you could just about get away with it (especially when other countries had similar rates, UK was 98%).

In an era of globalisation and wealth moving from shore to shore overnight, I think anything about 40% top rate tax risks international competitiveness.

NB. we'll never, ever agree on this.

[danyboy27]

In an era where people tended to remain in their country, you could just about get away with it (especially when other countries had similar rates, UK was 98%).

In an era of globalisation and wealth moving from shore to shore overnight, I think anything about 40% top rate tax risks international competitiveness.

NB. we'll never, ever agree on this.
in theory with strong protectionist measures it could work.

That how china has been fighting the exportation of product in their country to protect their industries.

Its all theory of course. The rich will never allow such thing to happen, even to protect the world from an asteroid attack,

[brigadista]

the le penn result on an 80per cent turn out is really worrying...

[danyboy27]

the le penn result on an 80per cent turn out is really worrying...

Its not really surprising especially with sarkozy feeding the paranoia about arab and black folks beccause of the mohamed menra case all old creepy white men fearing a race war have gone for marine lepen.

on the second and third turn most of these assole will be voting for sarkozy.

But since there are far more leftist political party than righting ones in france, the majority of political leader have already decided that once they are out they will support hollande.

If you ask me, hollande will not be a radical improvement for france. Leftist or not the french bourgeois are extremely nationalist and prejudicied. You could say its the educational system with the hardcore emphasis on the rule of law, the constitution and vastly overlook colonization and imperialism.

[Geiseric]

I don't know much about France but it seems like a different world than the decaying U.S.

Are there any people like Rick Santorum in france or canada?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaJ0z3hx51s&feature=related

[Anarcho-Brocialist]

I had heard of a very strong socialist candidate, I must say I am upset that the far-right won this election.

[NewLeft]

I don't know much about France but it seems like a different world than the decaying U.S.

Are there any people like Rick Santorum in france or canada?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaJ0z3hx51s&feature=related
Not really as open as Santorum, but we got Vic Toews..

[Blake's Baby]

I had heard of a very strong socialist candidate, I must say I am upset that the far-right won this election.

What?

Hollande - 'Socialist' (ie social-democrat) - 28%
Sarkozy - ??? (centre-right) - 26%
Le Pen - National Front ('far-right') - 20%
Melenchon - ??? ('far-left', probably your 'strong socialist') - 11%
'The other guy' - ??? (centrist) - 9%

So the centre-left beat the centre-right which beat the far right which beat the far left which beat the centre.

Numbers game says the vast majority of Le Pen's support will go to Sarkozy, as will the guy from the centre-party (whose name escapes me). Melenchon's supporters will split, some will back Hollande and some will abstain.

My prediction is Sarkozy takes the Presidency on about 53% and a reduced turnout.

[RGacky3]

I really thought the left front would do better, they were doing better in the polls.

Either way, I am positively suprised with how far left hollande has gone, and I thank the left front for that.

Hollande is part of the right wing within the socialist party, but just like FDR he's gonna respond to the growing leftist ground swell, his promises are solid social-democratic policies.

Obviously I wish the left front did better though.

[Vladimir Innit Lenin]

The NF result is hugely worrying. Not only within the French context, but what this will mean for other European national elections in the next few years. In Britain, we are totally un-prepared to deal with a rise in far-right sentiment, both on the streets and at at the polls.

[Krano]

Elections in EU countries, kind of pointless don't you think? single currency isn't going anywhere neither are the bankers or the plutocrats. Nothing will change with bourgeois politics.

[Franz Fanonipants]

I don't know much about France

is where you should have left it

France is pretty fucking terrible for workers and immigrants

anyways

i'm hoping marine le pen manages to erupt in a serious way simply for the comedy factor

[hatzel]

The NF result is hugely worrying. Not only within the French context, but what this will mean for other European national elections in the next few years. In Britain, we are totally un-prepared to deal with a rise in far-right sentiment, both on the streets and at at the polls.

This brief article (http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/leading-articles/leading-article-an-unwelcome-seventies-revival-7669082.html) dropped in the Indie. We might not really have all that much to worry about yet, unless 'they' start getting their act together, which I can't really see happening any time soon...


It is something of a mystery why the far right in Britain is so unable to get its act together. The NF hopefuls can only look on with envy at the extraordinary success of similar parties in France, Holland, Belgium, Austria, Italy and Hungary, all countries where the far right is shaking the political establishment and regularly taking between 10 and 20 per cent of the vote. Partly this may be down to the Conservative Party's traditional success in luring most people on the right of the political spectrum into its big tent. The other factor appears to be the peculiarly fissiparous nature of far-right politics in Britain, as a result of which a fairly small number of voters is spread over a whole range of parties, from Ukip and the BNP to the English Democrats and now the NF as well.

[durhamleft]

The NF result is hugely worrying. Not only within the French context, but what this will mean for other European national elections in the next few years. In Britain, we are totally un-prepared to deal with a rise in far-right sentiment, both on the streets and at at the polls.

We've never really had a strong far right here thankfully, and by 2015 I'm unconvinced the BNP will even exist, which would set the far right back years.

The risk is Cameron bowing into nationalist pressures and the general anti-Islamic wave across Europe. I doubt this will happen though as he seems a very socially liberal Tory.

[danyboy27]

I don't know much about France but it seems like a different world than the decaying U.S.

Are there any people like Rick Santorum in france or canada?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZaJ0z3hx51s&feature=related

In canada we got stockwell day, a creationist homophobe former leader of the canadian alliance, and we got the folks from the wild rose party who are basically tea bagger with slighly better manner.

also, basicallly all the people at the sun tv news are a bunch of glenn beck lover,The favorite canadian channel for paranoid, racist old white males.

[Dr. Rosenpenis]

What?

Hollande - 'Socialist' (ie social-democrat) - 28%
Sarkozy - ??? (centre-right) - 26%
Le Pen - National Front ('far-right') - 20%
Melenchon - ??? ('far-left', probably your 'strong socialist') - 11%
'The other guy' - ??? (centrist) - 9%

So the centre-left beat the centre-right which beat the far right which beat the far left which beat the centre.

Numbers game says the vast majority of Le Pen's support will go to Sarkozy, as will the guy from the centre-party (whose name escapes me). Melenchon's supporters will split, some will back Hollande and some will abstain.

My prediction is Sarkozy takes the Presidency on about 53% and a reduced turnout.

bayrou was sold as a center-leftist. at the start of this whole thing before hollande became the left wing darling there was talk about bayrou being the frontrunner of the opposition to sarkozy. the socialist party is pretty soft, but not be compared to the blatantly right-wing american democrats and british labour. this is the party of mitterand. and as far as i know not third way shite like the aforementioned so-called "center left" parties.

[ed miliband]

bayrou was sold as a center-leftist. at the start of this whole thing before hollande became the left wing darling there was talk about bayrou being the frontrunner of the opposition to sarkozy. the socialist party is pretty soft, but not be compared to the blatantly right-wing american democrats and british labour. this is the party of mitterand. and as far as i know not third way shite like the aforementioned so-called "center left" parties.

uh - who set the ball rolling for neoliberalism in france

[Blake's Baby]

bayrou was sold as a center-leftist. at the start of this whole thing before hollande became the left wing darling there was talk about bayrou being the frontrunner of the opposition to sarkozy. the socialist party is pretty soft, but not be compared to the blatantly right-wing american democrats and british labour. this is the party of mitterand. and as far as i know not third way shite like the aforementioned so-called "center left" parties.

I think the PSF is very much to be compared with the Labour Party. Maybe not the Democrats but certainly other European centre-left Socialist, Social-democratic and Labour parties.

I can't stress to you how much I despise Mitterand, Jospin, and all their kind. Anti-working class scum, all of them, even if Jospin did lie about being a Trotskyist in the '60s.

[Dr. Rosenpenis]

of course the french socialist party isnt socialist stricto sensu
but neoliberal?
doubtful
more like traditional keynesian social democrats from what i know
which i suppose doesnt exclude the possibility of certain liberal policies, but they like increased wages, rights and assistence for workers, increased taxes on the rich, so on

[Blake's Baby]

The Socialist Party isn't socialist in any sense.

It's a party of management of French capitalism. I don't give a shit if you think managing French capitalism requires a slightly higher tax-rate on the rich and some populist anti-American measures while complaining about 'globalisation', that has nothing to do with socialism. I said in the beginning that the PSF was social-democratic, now your argument is it's social-democratic. Good, you've caught up.

[Genghis]

Hollande 28%
Sarkozy 26%
Le Penn 20%
Melenchon 11%

Turnout 80%


For me, Sakorzy has been a dissapointment. He promised much in the last Presidential elections (2008 I think) but delivered very little. I had hoped that he would be the French Margaret Thatcher. But the only thing he did right was raising the retirement age to 62 which Holland now want to bring back down to 60.

If Hollande wins and income tax really go to 75%, France will really go to the dogs. Capital will flow out of the country. Nobody will want to invest. France will plung into recession and the budget deficit will get worse, not better.

Of course, he could be fooling his voters and not do anything so stupid like that if he gets elected.

Right now, its anybody's game. Sakorzy and Hollande are both neck and neck. If Sakorzy wants to win, he has to convince the right that he means business this time and really enact free market reforms.

[Genghis]

The Socialist Party isn't socialist in any sense.

It's a party of management of French capitalism. I don't give a shit if you think managing French capitalism requires a slightly higher tax-rate on the rich and some populist anti-American measures while complaining about 'globalisation', that has nothing to do with socialism. I said in the beginning that the PSF was social-democratic, now your argument is it's social-democratic. Good, you've caught up.

There we go again. We are back at the definations game. You guys are so far to the Left that you the Socialist Party is not Socialist enough for you.

[RGacky3]

If Hollande wins and income tax really go to 75%, France will really go to the dogs. Capital will flow out of the country. Nobody will want to invest. France will plung into recession and the budget deficit will get worse, not better.


Yup, because that has happened every single time in the past with high taxes, like say ... the United States in the 50s and 60s, or Sweden.

Capital will stay in countries where you can actually create demand, also fortunately, France has many partly nationalized companies to protect itself from that.


Of course, he could be fooling his voters and not do anything so stupid like that if he gets elected.


Yeah, because austerity has such a good track record, but high progressive income taxes do not.

BTW, income taxes are not taxes on capital investment ... So I doubt it would effect investment at all, infact high income taxes on the rich would encourage investment since its taxed lower.

Austerity has had its shot, it failed, as it always has.


If Sakorzy wants to win, he has to convince the right that he means business this time and really enact free market reforms.

Because of all the pro-austerity, pro-capitalist protests in France:laugh:.

[RGacky3]

There we go again. We are back at the definations game. You guys are so far to the Left that you the Socialist Party is not Socialist enough for you.

Yes, and the democratic party is not pro-democracy enough for us ...

But yeah, broadly some in the french socialist party are socialists, some or just social-democrats ... very broadly, the labor party in the UK can't even be called that.

[Blake's Baby]

There we go again. We are back at the definations game. You guys are so far to the Left that you the Socialist Party is not Socialist enough for you.

I'm so far to the left the the Communist Party is not left enough for me. What's your point? If organisations move to the right (as the Socialist Party did 100 years ago) do we all have to move with them? Or do we reject them and start new organisations?

[Grenzer]

Blake brings up a good point.

I would attribute part of this march to the right on the fact that many communist parties participate in elections. Will the failure of the last revolutionary wave almost a hundred years ago, it is not surprising that to make up their defifict of popularity that they would resort to opportunist means(rightist deviation). Elections aren't very important, though some might argue they have their uses in limited situations.

[Genghis]

BTW, income taxes are not taxes on capital investment ... So I doubt it would effect investment at all, infact high income taxes on the rich would encourage investment since its taxed lower.



Why would someone work hard or invest and take risks if most of his income or profits gets taxed away?

[Ocean Seal]

Why would someone work hard or invest and take risks if most of his income or profits gets taxed away?
Because people who work hard don't generally pay taxes on profits, as they do not get to keep any of the profits to start with.

[Mass Grave Aesthetics]

For me, Sakorzy has been a dissapointment. He promised much in the last Presidential elections (2008 I think) but delivered very little. I had hoped that he would be the French Margaret Thatcher. But the only thing he did right was raising the retirement age to 62 which Holland now want to bring back down to 60.

...and really enact free market reforms.

What was so smart about raising the retirement age? Youth unemployment is a big problem in France and I don´t see how this measure was in any way sensible.
And I don´t think his failiure to enact those market reforms stems from some weakness on his part. He was met with active resistance because workers didn´t want those shitty "reforms". And also; one slight problem hindered the credibility of Sarkozy´s plans, namely the global capitalist crisis.

[Omsk]

Here is my question for all who think they have a good answer:

Should we as communists support the 'socialist' modern day parties in Europe? [Not as the representatives of the working class,but simply by the fact that their members are usually better than the members of the right-wing and center parties,and there is a chance a real socialist group might split off?] (Opposed to the other parties which are participating in the elections.)

I have my opinion,i just want more thoughts on this.

[Mass Grave Aesthetics]

The short and sweet answer would be No on my part.

[Omsk]

That was percisely my answer.Any other members also might want to answer this?

[Per Levy]

Should we as communists support the 'socialist' modern day parties in Europe? [Not as the representatives of the working class,but simply by the fact that their members are usually better than the members of the right-wing and center parties,and there is a chance a real socialist group might split off?] (Opposed to the other parties which are participating in the elections.)

do you mean "socialists" partys like the spd in germany, labour in the uk, and ps in france? i mean these partys are pretty centre/right wing. not to mention that these party are hardly "better" then their more right wing comrades, the whole slashing of the welfare state and introducing neoliberal "reforms" in germany was started and executed by the spd, and they will do so again and again once they have power again to do so. so yeah, real commies shouldnt support capitalists partys like these.

[Omsk]

do you mean "socialists" partys like the spd in germany, labour in the uk, and ps in france?


Yes,those parties,but do note that i included the :
Should we as communists support the 'socialist' modern day parties in Europe?

It's just that i had a discussion with some people,and they insisted that communists should support such political groups,i didn't agree.

[ed miliband]

Yup, because that has happened every single time in the past with high taxes, like say ... the United States in the 50s and 60s, or Sweden.

Capital will stay in countries where you can actually create demand, also fortunately, France has many partly nationalized companies to protect itself from that.

but that was at a time when most countries had high tax rates

[Luís Henrique]

http://referentiel.nouvelobs.com/file/3536797.jpg

Nicolas, toujours une âme rebelle!

http://referentiel.nouvelobs.com/file/3536823.jpg

Tous pour Sarkozy, le candidat anti-imperialiste!

http://referentiel.nouvelobs.com/file/3536825.jpg

Il y a toujours une grande femme derrière un homme... petit.

Luís Henrique

[Luís Henrique]

This article in Le Nouvel Observateur is an interesting read: Pourquoi Marine Le Pen va faire perdre Nicolas Sarkozy (http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/presidentielle-2012-tous-les-resultats/20120423.OBS6881/pourquoi-marine-le-pen-va-faire-perdre-nicolas-sarkozy.html).

From it:


Grâce à l’action d’un de ses complices objectifs, Patrick Buisson (http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/election-presidentielle-2012/20120216.OBS1600/patrick-buisson-le-stratege-de-l-ombre.html), véritable "idiot utile du lepénisme" implanté au cœur du pouvoir sarkozyste, l’UMP n’a cessé de se "droitiser", en gros depuis le discours de Grenoble de juillet 2010, et plus encore tout au long de cette campagne présidentielle. La "lepénisation des esprits" UMP est à l’œuvre. L’ex-parti unique de la majorité, réduit à la portion congrue, à peine 27% des voix, et profondément divisé entre tenants d’une ligne musclée et rescapés de la droite humaniste et sociale, ne tient plus que par l’autorité de son leader. Seule la soumission à la figure de Nicolas Sarkozy tient aujourd’hui lieu de ciment. Le culte du chef est la dernière boussole de l’UMP. Et Nicolas Sarkozy en joue à plein pour galvaniser ses troupes... et mieux les conduire au précipice.

Que le président sortant chute dans deux semaines, et une bonne partie du troupeau UMP, orphelin, emmené par les brebis de la Droite populaire, sera prêt à céder aux sirènes lepénistes. Le président sortant se targue d’avoir accouché d’une "droite décomplexée", débarrassée de ce qu’il appelle ses "tabous" en matière d’immigration, d’insécurité et d' "identité nationale". Ce n’est pas le moindre des reproches que l’on pourra faire à Nicolas Sarkozy, lorsque l’heure viendra de constater l’étendue des dégâts que son passage à sa tête aura commis sur le paysage de la droite française.

Il en a changé la nature, c’est vrai. Et il l'a conduite à sa perte. Jadis, pour récuser toute perspective d’entente avec le FN, le gaulliste Michel Noir avait lancé aux siens : "Mieux vaut perdre les élections que perdre son âme." Nicolas Sarkozy est en passe de réussir à faire les deux en même temps.


Bold mine.


Luís Henrique

[l'Enfermé]

This article in Le Nouvel Observateur is an interesting read: Pourquoi Marine Le Pen va faire perdre Nicolas Sarkozy (http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/presidentielle-2012-tous-les-resultats/20120423.OBS6881/pourquoi-marine-le-pen-va-faire-perdre-nicolas-sarkozy.html).

From it:




Bold mine.


Luís Henrique
For those that don't speak French, the Le Nouvel Obs(organ of upper class Parisian social-democrats)basically says that Le Pen's main goal right now is to ensure the defeat of the UMP, which currently is basically based around a cult of personality around Sarkozy, and to recruit UMP's "orphaned" electorate to FN's side...and FN will be the main right-wing force in France.

[Franz Fanonipants]

Why would someone work hard or invest and take risks if most of his income or profits gets taxed away?

why would someone work hard when most of their income is not even remotely close to the value of their labor hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

e: the answer is - terror