dutch parliamentary pollitics (Wilders, SP e.a.) [split from anti-fa forum]

[Sasha]

Also, I have heard that Geert Wilders has lost a lot of support in the opinion polls and that come the next election he and his party will face a possible defeat, is this true?


yeah the PVV is dropping, not nearly fast enough but since proles and the poorer midle class made up most of his electorate he gets the blame for the ever farther reaching austerity. back when the economy was still kind of okay poor people might have been woried about islamification (although also then they where mostly voting on him because of the same old "brown people stealing our jobs" etc shit and not much caring for eurabia conspiracy crap) but now they see how his support is essential in slashing benefits, raising the reteriment age, privatising the last public services etc etc they are flocking to that other populist the Socialist Party.
Rich people/ the well of midle class are still very content with their pick the VVD (libertarian/conservative), the last part of the coalition the christian-democrats CDA is completely in the shitter so even while the VVD might still remain the biggest party it looks that they wont be able to form a right-wing government again.
but it will be hard to form a government if this coalition falls, the individualist green-left (ex-communist party/ex-pacifist socialist party) is not doing well in the polls now, labour is doing horribly as well.
so the expected winners will be the (ex-maoist) populist Socialist Party, the conservative-libertarian VVD and the "progressive"-libertarian D66.
no one except maybe the VVD will want to govern with wilders his PVV again, the SP as the expected biggest winners will be first to try and form a government but its very doubtfull D66 would want to join them, especially if they need Labour, green-left and maybe even the miniscule progressive-evangelical CU to even make it to a mayority.
VVD will never go together with the SP so the only other option would be a "centerist mass coalition" of VVD, D66, Labour, CDA, Green-Left and maybe even needing CU.
but this would be way to unstable (commonly its held here that 4 parties in a coalition government is already unstable, 5 is nearly impossible, 6 would not make it past the first week) and political sucide for the two most centrist parties Labour and CDA.
we could very well end up giving belgium a run for their record of longest formation ever.

[Mather]

yeah the PVV is dropping, not nearly fast enough but since proles and the poorer midle class made up most of his electorate he gets the blame for the ever farther reaching austerity. back when the economy was still kind of okay poor people might have been woried about islamification (although also then they where mostly voting on him because of the same old "brown people stealing our jobs" etc shit and not much caring for eurabia conspiracy crap) but now they see how his support is essential in slashing benefits, raising the reteriment age, privatising the last public services etc etc they are flocking to that other populist the Socialist Party.



I suspected that was the reason for the drop in support for Geert Wilders.

I remember reading a newspaper article which focused on the policies of the PVV and Wilder's political views. Unlike the more traditional far-right in Europe (eg: the Front National in France), Wilder's is much more into economic liberalism and his right-wing views on the economy and society are more like those of the far-right in the USA. Of course such views are not going to make Wilder's popular, especially during a global economic crisis when people's concerns will be social and economic.

Is it safe to say that the whole islam/'clash of civilisations' narrative in the Netherlands is on the decline?



so the expected winners will be the (ex-maoist) populist Socialist Party


What do you mean by populist?

Is the Socialist Party marxist in any sense?

Also, are there going to be any campaigns for an active boycott of the upcoming elections by anarchists, autonomists, left communists etc?

[Sasha]

I suspected that was the reason for the drop in support for Geert Wilders.

I remember reading a newspaper article which focused on the policies of the PVV and Wilder's political views. Unlike the more traditional far-right in Europe (eg: the Front National in France), Wilder's is much more into economic liberalism and his right-wing views on the economy and society are more like those of the far-right in the USA. Of course such views are not going to make Wilder's popular, especially during a global economic crisis when people's concerns will be social and economic.

indeed but strangly while he has been very quick to switch his focus of his rethoric (while islam is still a hot issue for him he for the last few months has been playing more the no money to the "lazy greeks" cards etc, even going a few days ago so far to open a anonymus internet complaint collection site about polish and other middle and eastern europeans causing "problems" here) this didnt help him much. he really overshot himself when he launched a vicious attack on the queen after she wore a headscarf during a visit to a big mosque in Qatar during a trading mission, that really wen down bad with his electorate (as a newspapercomic was saying "on our part the queen could have walked that mosque naked if that landed the dutch economy a fat submarine order")


Is it safe to say that the whole islam/'clash of civilisations' narrative in the Netherlands is on the decline?
well it never really caught on, sure some neo-con intelectuals are into it but the rank and file of the PVV electorate just wanted to send a protest vote about "brown people".
the above mentioned newspapercomic once printed an very apt joke about two scared white midleclass people looking through the curtains outside while calling the intelligence services "come quick, there are muslim fundamentalists on scooters in front of our door whisteling at girls" :lol:



What do you mean by populist?for a long time their main campaing slogan was "vote against, vote SP", they are very social protectionist, dropped stuff about the monarchy and the NATO from their charter because it was unpopulair etc etc
also a few decades ago they where quite anti-(labor)immigration
they are in some ways the leftist side of the wilders coin.
on the other hand they are firmly rooted in the unions and in social movements and have very dedicated activists.
elected officials are forced to donate all their income to the party for wich in turn they get a far lower allowance.
there is a lot wrong with them but they are definitly the best of te bad and i mostly vote for them still (also because i know several of their candinates personally)


Is the Socialist Party marxist in any sense?no, they dropped marxism from their charter already a long time ago, the former leader of the party, still pretty much the symbol, recently even said that if they didnt have such a good brand recognition he might have dropped the "socialist" from the name for something else because he considered the word socialist tainted by the coldwar. they also expelled several trotskyist entryist groups (most notably the IS and the CWI) although members of the dutch section of the 4th international are allowed to remain for now.
on the other hand they are sympathetic to chaves and other south-american "socialist" parties and the up and coming golden boy in the amsterdam section without shame named the Communist Manifesto as the most important book he ever read.
they are very much old-labour taking the place vacated by Labour when they went new-labour.


here is their wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Party_%28Netherlands%29


Also, are there going to be any campaigns for an active boycott of the upcoming elections by anarchists, autonomists, left communists etc?the left coms are completly insignificant here, the anarchist/autonomist scene usually would hang some "dont vote" posters but since this ellection might very well break the PVV and bring the SP into power i think most would decide to this time not to get involved at all and secretly even hope for a good showing by the SP as the far lesser evil.
if you bring your unused votercard to some squat pubs you can always trade it in for free beer though.

[Sasha]

note though that while more and more cracks appear in the government new elections are offcially still years away, all parties except SP and D66 are dead-scared to have the government fall at this moment as lots of parties will take a beating and no traditional coalition seem to become a viable option.
unless a major scandal breaks in the PVV and the CDA subsequently decides its better to blow the coalition up than to remain tainted by Wilders or Labour finally grows some balls and pull their support for the E.U. pollitics of the VVD and CDA (which the PVV opposes so where they depend on the support of the centrist "left" for) i sadly not see the current government fall anytime soon.

[Mather]

indeed but strangly while he has been very quick to switch his focus of his rethoric (while islam is still a hot issue for him he for the last few months has been playing more the no money to the "lazy greeks" cards etc, even going a few days ago so far to open a anonymus internet complaint collection site about polish and other middle and eastern europeans causing "problems" here) this didnt help him much. he really overshot himself when he launched a vicious attack on the queen after she wore a headscarf during a visit to a big mosque in Qatar during a trading mission, that really wen down bad with his electorate (as a newspapercomic was saying "on our part the queen could have walked that mosque naked if that landed the dutch economy a fat submarine order")



Does the monarchy have much public support in the Netherlands?

[PhoenixAsh]

Does the monarchy have much public support in the Netherlands?

Yes and no.

Yes in the sense that the vast majority of the population loves the royal family...no in the sense that this is because they think they are there for show and tell and only have symbolic value and not political influence whatsoever....and is there to "give" a nice country wide party every year:


http://www.livinglabuenavida.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Amsterdam-Queensday-Crowd.jpg

http://blog.amsterdamcitytours.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Queens-Day.jpg


Everybody dresses up in orange....it is fucking embarassing.

[PhoenixAsh]

Anyways...today was loads of fun.

We have a thing called fiscal deduction on mortgage interest. This means that if you have a mortgage because you bougth a house...you have to pay interest over the loan. That interest is deductable from your taxes....in effect this increased the amount you could loan... Nice and all but the price of housing went up.

It also cost the state a lot of possible income.

Now that a lot of austerity measures are pushed foreward....the question from the left is when we are going to do something about this.

The right doesn't want to...because it would hit their taregt groups: upper middle class and upper class who own houses.

Cancelling this fiscal option would also decrease the value of houses you see :)

Anyways....

The fun part.


For the PVV the fiscal deduction of mortgage interest has been holy for a long time now.

On the 13th of this month Wilders stated: cancelling this is NOT a point of negotiation. It is never going to happen.

On the 16th however...he gave a televised interview saying...it was acceptable to debate ways to reduce the deductability IF that would also mean there would be a billion cut from the foreign aid budget.

Awesome!

Even more awesome is that he immediately twittered that the broadcast (televised as one segment by the way ;) ) was wrong and that hsi position was and always has been that there would be no cancellation of the fiscal deductability of mortgage interest.

But yeah....when you have his own statements on video...lolololol :D

LOL

[PhoenixAsh]

Everybody is getting their underwear all twisted in a knot because one of the sons of the Queen ignored a level 4 on a scale of 5 avalanche warning and went skiing of piste in Lech. He offcourse managed to get himself into an avalanche, was dragged for 40 minutes...spend 20 minutes burried under the snow and is now in stable but still life threatening situation in an Innsbruck hospital.

Offcourse the hospital was closed for few hours because he was there and nobody could get in...because this arrogant fuck thought jhe was outside natures grasp....the rest of the hospital could no longer receive visitors...

ow...yes...and because the prince didn't ask for permission from parliament to get married he is no longer part of the royal house...meaning he isn't in line for the throne...and several other things. He is still part of the royal family.

[Sasha]

You know why he didn't ask permission right? He married the ex-girlfriend of the most notorious mobster we ever had here in the Netherlands...

[MustCrushCapitalism]

I'm quite sympathetic to the Dutch Socialist Party. I have 2 Dutch friends, one a socialist party supporter, the other a member of the JOVD (youth branch of the VVD). A lot of Dutch seem quite pissed at the current coalition.

[Sasha]

the other a member of the JOVD (youth branch of the VVD).

Lol wut? How did that happen?

[PhoenixAsh]

In the meantime....polls....they show the PVV is winning votes over creating a website specifically designed and implemented to report problems with people from Eastern Europe. 18% of the population agrees with this website.

In the polls the PVV gained 4 seats....bringing him to 24...which is basically the same as they have now.

The VVD, neo liberals (not the US kind),....remain at 31 seats which is the same they have now.

The CDA, Christian Democrats, will get 12 seats...which is down from 21 now.


The CDA and VVD form the minority government. Which means they do not have the majority of seats in parliament (150) and need tolerance support (is there even a word for this insane construction outside of Holland???) to get at least 75+1 vote... So they need support from another party. That other party is the PVV...which is not inside the government, does not have to explain itself to parliamentary controll and offcourse has a huge influence on the government. During the elections these three parties together held the majority of seats: 76. They now have 67...which means they can not form a government come next elections. Which will take place on the 3rd of may 2015 IF the cabinet doesn't fall in the meantime....for which we can only hope.


The PvdA (social democrats...but only in name) will get 14 seats. Down from 30.

The Socialist Party (social democrats) will get 33 seats. Up from 15.

D66 (liberals; progressive) will get 17 seats. Up from 10

GL (green left) will get 7. Down from 10

CU (Christian coalition; religious conservatives) will get 5 seats. Same as now.

SGP (christian fundamentalists) will get 3 seats. Up from 2.

PvdD (animal rights party) will get 3 seats. Up from 2.

50 plus (senior citizens party) will get 1 seat. Up from 0 (not currently in parliament...it is a focus party which will pop up whenever we cut budget on the elderly)



This means that the current government needs to win 10 seats before the next elections. And that the margin of popular support for the government is dwindling....currently they lack the support needed to have a governing mandate.

This is reflected in the same poll: almost 75% of the population are against further austerity measures and think the government should start to stimulate the economy. Only 22% agrees with the government position to reduce the budget shortage....which is at 4.5% and the national debt which is currently at 65.5% (Avarage for EU is 88%; Greece is 160%)


Interestingly enough....with the current polls....there is no way to form a stable government....for any party. Unless VVD and SP will govern together...which is not going to happen.

[Sasha]

CU (Christian coalition; religious conservatives) will get 5 seats. Same as now.


actually the CU is quite progressive for a religious party, in everything except euthanasia and abortion that is of course. even on gay and feminist issues they are now a days often ahead of the christian-democrats and on issues of immigration and such they are easily among the most "leftist" of all parties in parliament. i would label them progresive-evangelicals as a contrast to the SGP's fundamentalist calvinist poldertaliban

[PhoenixAsh]

actually the CU is quite progressive for a religious party, in everything except euthanasia and abortion that is of course. even on gay and feminist issues they are now a days often ahead of the christian-democrats and on issues of immigration and such they are easily among the most "leftist" of all parties in parliament. i would label them progresive-evangelicals as a contrast to the SGP's fundamentalist calvinist poldertaliban

I stand corrected...

[MustCrushCapitalism]

Lol wut? How did that happen?
Long story short, met them both through a hobby. :P

[PhoenixAsh]

I am going to post this here.


Job Cohen, the current parliamentary faction leader of the PvdA (translates: Party for Workers....former social democrats gone liberal) stepped down today after a week of heavy criticism within the parliamentary faction.

Two years ago Job Cohen was brought in to save the party and put in a respectable face not tainted with the political history and bagage in The Hague. He managed to get 30 seats creating the largest opposition party against the current government. The PvdA came second in the race for the largest party.

Today the party only has 14 of the 30 seats left in the polls. And Cohen has given an interview last week saying they are ideologically very close to the SP.

As we all know the SP has rissen in the polls from 12 seats to 33. A huge and landmark victory for the left wing of social democracy (SP is former Maoist, dropped ML politics from their program entirely in 1994 and has to be considered a social democratic populist party).

The SP and PvdA have been at odds since the SP joined parliament in 1994. Basicaly the SP aimed to draw away support from the PvdA. And they have succeeded. Many PvdA supporters have lost trust in the movement the party made to the ideological center and the abandoning of tradictional social democratic values. Especially during a time of crisis.

After Job Cohen stated that the SP is ideologically at the same place as the PvdA it created a slight uproar in the PvdA faction. And eventhough this was settled in the last faction meeting three days ago and he claimed to have enough support....it now turns out Job Cohen will step down.


Now...insiders (I have contacts...jeej...) claim that the PvdA is a very hierarchical party with a lot of inside factions and competing groups. So infighting will probably occur as to who is going to follow Job Cohen. There are, to my understanding, preciously little faces that can follow in his footsteps...which are not tainted with soem schandal or another. And the question is which course the PvdA will take.

They are litterally between a rock and a hard place. The association the PvdA has is a party which has failed at every turn and lost its own identity. Preciously little distinguishes the party program from the VVD and CDA as a result of moves and changes made decades ago when the party positioned itself slab bang in the middle and adopting neo-liberal economics.

The party has little manouvres left. Moving to the left will make them just another SP....but with all the negative history they accumulated in the last three decades. Moving to the right will get them closer to the leftwing of the VVD and CDA. But the CDA iss also dwindling and the VVD is still doing well in the polls. So there is no reason for supporters from the VVD to move to the PvdA....and the CDA has preciously little supporters to lose. Not to mention they are a christian party and the PvdA are considered long time antagonists.

So it seems the PvdA will probably be marginalisedin the comming elections.

I am not entirely sure if this is such a bad thing. It will give the party time to reflect on its position...to reevaluate their contnuous refusal to cooperate in a broad left wing coalition opposition. And it will probably get a chance to reexamine the abandonment of social democratic ideals.

Wether we like these ideals or not....within the current parliamentary multi-party situation....a move to the left will certainly be very welcome.

[Sasha]

my money is firmly on lodewijk asscher (the current deputy major of amsterdam http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lodewijk_Asscher) to become the new PvdA leader, it was a public secret that if cohen would have became PM he would have become the parlaimentairy faction leader in his place and i assume he will now after all.
thats how they should have done it, publicly, from the start; a dual run with cohen as the elderly statesman for PM and the young agresive asscher as faction leader.

with extra bonus that while jewish he looks and sounds a lot less like a bad anti-semite caricture than cohen, i'm still quite convinced that that was the thing that lost them the majority and the PM slot that comes with it at the last ellections, they grossly under estimated the latent anti-semitism esp. in the catholic south. didnt cost them that much votes but just enough to finnish second

[PhoenixAsh]

Asscher would definately not be a bad choice for them.

I think the PvdA has not been able to detach itself from the past image which was so fervently attacked from the Fortuyn era to the pressent. Pushing Cohen forward two years ago was a nice move, but it was clear from the start he was no opposition leader and still was part of the older PvdA regent era....that last bit was underestimated by the party as well.

They should have promoted Asscher back then from the get go. But I guess he was to new and too much of a liability for the established party elite.

Two of my friends work for the government in the Province South Holland and one at one of the ministeries. Quite high level functions. Both of them are PvdA members and both of them regret that decision. However.,...it turns out that part affiliation for civil servants at any level is quite important because there is a huge clan forming within each government organisation. MOre or less party lines are drawn here too. Their experience however is that PvdA civil servants of higher level are often directed by the party hierarchy and adher strongly to both disciplin and obedience.

THeir indication is that the PvdA overall is a very hierarchical institution with tight leadership controll and competition between members of the upper echelons. Each has their own little group of supporters, sympathisers and opportunists following them. THeir carreers depend on it.

This seems to be much less the case with parties like the VVD, CDA and D66 which tend to be more losely organised and leave far more room for private initiative.

Now...this may come in handy in a uniform ideology party. But for the PvdA, which is far from uniform and stable in ideology, this actually works against them. The accusations of them being a party of regents and the image that invokes now work hand in hand with tight party discipline. Not good.

A newer person like Asscher who has not been part of the larger past of the PvdA will actually create a new era.

[Sasha]

THeir indication is that the PvdA overall is a very hierarchical institution with tight leadership controll and competition between members of the upper echelons. Each has their own little group of supporters, sympathisers and opportunists following them. THeir carreers depend on it.

This seems to be much less the case with parties like the VVD, CDA and D66 which tend to be more losely organised and leave far more room for private initiative.


mhmm, maybe your right but esp the VVD and the CDA come with different but similair problems.

the VVD has a huge gap between the flashy libertarian side which is based in the big cities and suburbia, that draws the most votes in the nation wide ellections and suplies the new political tallent (personified by current PM Rutte) and the old-tory party barons from the super rich enclaves/gated mansions who controll the money and the political conections with the big buisness in the party (personified by mastedont Wiegel).
while the going is good this is not much a problem yet (although for example the in compersion liberal amsterdam VVD is clearly suffering from and unhappy with the very un-libertarian coalition with the hard-right PVV and the christian conservative CDA) and now that they since the last Senate ellection even depend on the support of the miniscule calivinst-fundamentalist SGP taliban the gears are getting grittier all the time.

and the CDA has what you descibe about the PvdA in reverse, if not fot hundreds and hundreds of local CDA polliticans in rural/farmer area councils and "waterschappen" (special powerfull independent councils that deal with everything water related, something uniquely dutch) who depend on the CDA being in government for their jobs they might never have joined the current coalition.

[Sasha]

Outside election time only current faction members (or people who where candidates for the house last elections) can put them self forward for the position (faction leader and party leader) now vacated by Cohen, lodewijk asscher was not so the PvdA need at least temporaly someone else, today faction member diederik samson put himself forward and became the instant frontrunner. Samson is viewed to be representative for the leftwing of the PvdA, he is a nuclear scientist, former greenpeace activist and social worker: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Diederik_Samsom
If chosen wilders will have a tremendous problem, Cohen was the ideal victim for his bullying but samson would be a whole different game.

[Sasha]

*breaking news*

Hero brinkman, my former arch nemesis back when he was a cop in my neighbourhood, just jumped the PVV ship taking his seat in parliament and thus the majority that the governing coalition needs with him.
He claims he will continue to support the coalition but it remains to be seen whether the conservatives and the christian democrats feel they are stable enough to continue. and maybe even wilders will force new ellections out of sheer spite, new ellections would probably mean that brinkman would not return and would prevent him from working on a new party.

[Sasha]

*breaking*
After weeks of wilders losing votes to the vvd and sp the inevitable finally happend, after yesterday the pvv/cda/vvd coaliton in limburg (the home province of wilders) collapsed wilders just now pulled out of the nationwide government claiming he could not sell further austerity to his voters.
New ellections after the summer vacation...

[Sasha]

some english languaged analysis
economical: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/889f4108-8c2e-11e1-9a1c-00144feab49a.html#axzz1smAtOv1z
political: http://www.rnw.nl/english/article/wilders-back-barricades