Prediction for 2012: Central Asia Spring

[Seth]

The material and political conditions in Central Asia are similar if not worse than those in North Africa and the Arab world. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan are all rife with poverty and ruled by president-for-life autocrats.

I believe it may have already started with worker's struggle's in Kazakhstan. In Egypt, it arguably started the same way (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/an-act-of-courage-that-launched-a-revolution/2011/12/22/gIQAZxDyQP_print.html). So keep an eye on that region in the year to come.

Thoughts?

[Ermo Kruus]

The conditions for a revolution there are much more difficult I think. These states inherited a massive security apparatus and its methods following the collapse of the USSR. I got the impression that these deal much more efficiently with dissidents than in any of the Arab countries. Still, I hope that we will see a situation similar to the one in Kyrgyzstan some years ago.

[Seth]

The conditions for a revolution there are much more difficult I think. These states inherited a massive security apparatus and its methods following the collapse of the USSR. I got the impression that these deal much more efficiently with dissidents than in any of the Arab countries. Still, I hope that we will see a situation similar to the one in Kyrgyzstan some years ago.

The "revolution" in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 did nothing, and just moved the country into the Russia sphere of influence, undoing the previous farce "revolution".

[Ermo Kruus]

The "revolution" in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 did nothing, and just moved the country into the Russia sphere of influence, undoing the previous farce "revolution".I'm well aware of that and I never claimed that it was a revolution. However, the way people filled the streets and took part in street battles shows how pissed off people are with their current situation. It shows how much people are willing to make a change happen.

[Os Cangaceiros]

The conditions for a revolution there are much more difficult I think. These states inherited a massive security apparatus and its methods following the collapse of the USSR. I got the impression that these deal much more efficiently with dissidents than in any of the Arab countries. Still, I hope that we will see a situation similar to the one in Kyrgyzstan some years ago.

I don't know, the Arab states were no slouches when it came to dealing with political dissidents...

[Crux]

The material and political conditions in Central Asia are similar if not worse than those in North Africa and the Arab world. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan are all rife with poverty and ruled by president-for-life autocrats.

I believe it may have already started with worker's struggle's in Kazakhstan. In Egypt, it arguably started the same way (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/an-act-of-courage-that-launched-a-revolution/2011/12/22/gIQAZxDyQP_print.html). So keep an eye on that region in the year to come.

Thoughts?
Indeed I would say Kazhakstan (http://www.socialistworld.net/view/50) is in or approaching a pre-revolutionary situation. We will have see how it develops.

[Seth]

To give you an idea, from a thing from October 2011:


When the country of Uzbekistan was occupied by the Soviet Union, prior to 1991, two thirds of their cotton was harvested by way of machinery. Now the use of machines in the cotton harvest (http://http//www.ejfoundation.org/page145.html) has dropped to 10%. Cotton, otherwise known as “white gold”, is now harvested by hand, many of who are children. Every year schools are shut down and the children are forced to work in the cotton fields. The schools are shut down in the fall and the schoolteachers and administrators send the children into the cotton fields. This process is organized and controlled (http://http//www.laborrights.org/stop-child-labor/cotton-campaign/uzbekistan) by the central government. The students work in the fields every day for about two months until the harvest is brought in. The teachers are given quotas (http://http//iwpr.net/report-news/child-labour-persists-uzbek-cotton-industry) that each child must fulfill; often the quota is 50 kilograms of cotton a day, which is about 110 pounds. If a child falls under their quota the shortfall is carried over to the next day and they are threatened with expulsion and the dropping of their grade in school.
These children must live in makeshift (http://http//www.ejfoundation.org/page145.html) dorms if the cotton farm is far away from their village; some barracks have no electricity, windows or doors. They work up to ten-hour shifts with one break for lunch and the water they drink is irrigation water. The children are charged for food and shelter so at the end of the day they see no payment (http://%20http//stopchildlabor.org/?p=2477) for their hard work. It’s ironic because Uzbekistan has signed two conventions against child labor by the International Labor Organization and two conventions (http://http//www.laborrights.org/sites/default/files/publications-and-resources/UzbekCottonFall09Update.pdf) on forced labor also by the ILO. Although, the Uzbekistan government has refused to allow the International Labor Organization along with any other international observer access to the country to see what is going on in the fields. The country of Uzbekistan is denying any act of forced child labor. The government is signing conventions with the ILO on Minimum Age of Employment and on Prohibition and Immediate Action for Elimination of the Worst Forms of Child Labor. It also approved the National Action Plan (http://http//mfa.uz/eng/press_and_media_service/press_releases/measures_on_protection_of_the_rights_of_the_child_ in_uzbekistan.mgr) (NAP), which is directed to ban all forms of child labor and organize local bodies of power.
These conventions look good to the public eye but behind the scenes there are children being forced to work under harsh conditions. Uzbekistan is not abiding by the terms of the conventions the have signed. The country is turning a cheek to the problem and attempting to cover it up with plans for abolishing child labor in their country. There must be better laws put in place and real ways of regulating them to ensure that this child labor is put to an end.

[B.K.]

It's possible, but unlikely. Everybody there has seen the outcome of two Kyrgyz revolutions (mindless thuggery and looting + nationalist violence led to over 400,000 people been displaced) and 1992-97 Tajik civil war (which made Tajikistan one of the poorest countries on Earth), so now they're skeptical about any revolutions.

Moreover, if a revolution would happen in a place like Uzbekistan, it'll most likely get the islamists into power, as there are virtually no progressive political forces, and the majority of population is almost illiterate and religious to a fault. Kazakhstan is a different story - the population there is considerably richer than in other Central Asian countries and not so religious (however, there already are some Wahhabi militant groups, probably backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE). However, Kazakhstan is a very multicultural state with Kazakhs comprising less than 2/3 of its population, so in case if nationalist violence starts after revolution, it'll be a total catastrophe. Not to mention the escalation of nationalism in Russia, that will inevitably happen after an influx of refugees fleeing from Central Asia.

[Tim Cornelis]

Seth, the problem is that you assume that just because it's shitty over there the people will simply rise up. You neglect the social psychology behind a revolution: the feeling that active resistance--as opposed to passive acceptance--will do any good. The historical experience of Central Asia will probably lead them to believe they cannot change their situation.

Take Turmenistan for example, unemployment is up to 70% (!) for years and years on end, why would they all of a sudden rise up now?