Countries at highest risk of breaking up?

[rundontwalk]

Inspired by the news that various rebel groups in Sudan are forming an alliance to topple the government.

My list (places listed in parenthesis are the ones I think will get things going):

1. Somalia (Somaliland..Puntland..)
2. Sudan (South Sudan already broke off, and it seems likely Darfur and the eastern bits could follow suit)
3. Yemen (South)
4. Russia (Caucasus/Siberia)
5. Spain (Catalonia, Basque Country)

Any other countries you can think of that might have limited lifespans in their current form?

[Cencus]

The U.K. is under a lot of pressure from Northern Ireland & Scotland.

In northern Ireland the current state of play is a devolved government which, in my opinion is just a stop gap whilst the demographics move towards favourable chance of a win for a united Ireland, others will disagree saying that it is just a way of placating the nationalists whilst maintaning control from Westminster.

Scotland has for the last few years had a Nationalist government initially in collalition later as a minority government. The nationalists plan to hold a referendum in the next few years, the success of which will depend on how much resentment the Tory/Lib Dem collalition manage to stir up north of the border. There is also talk of a third option on any referendum going for a devolution max option. The third option will probably only be added if the nationalists don't believe they can win full independance as a face saving exercise. Don't matter jack shit anyway we'll still be ruled by the same shower of wankers no matter what.

[Die Neue Zeit]

4. Russia (Caucasus/Siberia)

Ukraine is more likely to break up than Russia. Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea are way more pro-Russian than western Ukraine.

Georgia is on edge too, after its adventurism into pro-Russian seceding regions.

[rundontwalk]

I'm somewhat amazed that Afghanistan even exists. Like, I seriously wonder why the Uzbeks, Pakistanis, Iranians, and Tajiks haven't just carved that place up.

[mrmikhail]

My list (places listed in parenthesis are the ones I think will get things going):
4. Russia (Caucasus/Siberia)


This is highly doubtful, Siberia in the modern world is inhabited mostly by ethnic Russians, the native Siberians are outnumbered and the reality is it is going to be Russian as long as Russia exists.

The Caucasus has no chance of breaking up, the government of Chechnya is headed by a guy in Putin's pocket, the rest of the region is relatively pacified aside from a few groups here and there who do random terrorist attacks and such, no real independence movements, especially after the 2008 war where Russia reaffirmed the region was firmly under Putin's iron fist.

[Smyg]

I'm thinking the same as the OP, at least for the three first options.

[Yugo45]

Bosnia (Serbian and Croat silly rightist nationalists)

[rundontwalk]

Bosnia.
Good one.

I forgot about Republika Srpska, etc.

[Smyg]

In the case of Somaliland, it's already really happened, they only lack international recognition it seems.

[mrmikhail]

In the case of Somaliland, it's already really happened, they only lack international recognition it seems.

They may be on the verge of getting African Union recognition, Ethiopia seems to be about to as well as a back up plan since the UN "government" of Somalia is pretty well done. Puntland doesn't seek full independence from Somalia, they just formed in an attempt to have some government in case the UN one failed.

But Bosnia is a really good one, they are wrecked with nationalism from different ethnic groups.

[rundontwalk]

In the case of Somaliland, it's already really happened, they only lack international recognition it seems.
Yeah. Somaliland is really interesting. Of course it's just a manifestation of the same sort of tribalism that plagues the rest of nominal Somalia since one clan pretty much runs the place at the expense of everyone else. I still give them credit though.

[Le Socialiste]

I'm somewhat amazed that Afghanistan even exists. Like, I seriously wonder why the Uzbeks, Pakistanis, Iranians, and Tajiks haven't just carved that place up.

Pretty sure that wouldn't sit well with the West, who wouldn't be at all pleased with a growing Iran and a nuclear-armed expansionist Pakistan. :rolleyes:

As for Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, neither country is stable enough for expansion. In fact, if history is to be any indicator, those two are usually the ones being conquered, not playing "conqueror." And let's not even get into their internal issues, with their history of bitter rivalries and civil warfare. If anything, Afghanistan is an unstable nation surrounded by unstable neighbors.

I'd venture a guess and say Moldova won't be around for very long. It used to be a part of Romania until the Soviets took it (if my memory is correct). Georgia's another big one, seeing as its been plagued by secessionist struggles since independence - and with Abkhazia and S. Ossetia "breaking away" with Russian assistance I wouldn't be surprised if more tried following suit.

[mrmikhail]

I'd venture a guess and say Moldova won't be around for very long. It used to be a part of Romania until the Soviets took it (if my memory is correct).

Moldova is already partially divided, with Transnistria being defacto independent. But on the status of Moldovia, it was originally independent nation, then passed between Ottoman vassalage and Russian Imperial control, Russia controlled it until 1918, then it was post WWI unified with Romania until it was given to the Soviets in 1940 (another secret provision of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) lost to Romania during WW2, then rejoined the Soviet Union in 1944, until 1991.

But I wouldn't say it is going anywhere, it is in the traditional Russian sphere of influence and the EU has interests in them, so both would prevent any annexation thereof.

[Comrade Gwydion]

How about Belgium? A few months ago, it almost happened.

[rundontwalk]

Move Yemen to the top of the list.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/11/yemen-southern-rebels-hirak-secession


"We give the regime this ultimatum: either you acknowledge our legitimate demands to self-determination or you will soon find Yemen split once again into two countries," said General Nasser al-Taweel, a prominent leader of the Hirak, or southern secessionist movement.

....

In the southern port city of Aden, a former British colony built in the dusty crevices of an extinct volcano, the Hirak, who for years bristled at the region's marginalisation under northern rule, have emerged from the shadows. Bus stops draped in the blue, red, and white flags of the former socialist republic of South Yemen and kitted out with amplifiers have been transformed into makeshift protest stages and podiums for the delivery of defiant "anti-unity" speeches.

Looks like the South wants to declare independence. Hope it works out reasonably well for them.

[Smyg]

Now this is interesting.

[Sasha]

How about Belgium? A few months ago, it almost happened.

this...

[Le Socialiste]

Moldova is already partially divided, with Transnistria being defacto independent. But on the status of Moldovia, it was originally independent nation, then passed between Ottoman vassalage and Russian Imperial control, Russia controlled it until 1918, then it was post WWI unified with Romania until it was given to the Soviets in 1940 (another secret provision of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact) lost to Romania during WW2, then rejoined the Soviet Union in 1944, until 1991.

But I wouldn't say it is going anywhere, it is in the traditional Russian sphere of influence and the EU has interests in them, so both would prevent any annexation thereof.

The thing about Moldova though is its history of being conquered by outside powers. If it doesn't collapse due to its own internal struggles it usually ends up being a part of one of its larger, more influential neighbors (Russia being the most recent example, as you pointed out). The current tug-of-war between the EU and Russia over Moldova isn't going to guarantee anything in the long run. Its leadership, constrained by geopolitical and regional location, will ultimately have to decide whether to remain within any given nation's influence or dissolve the country in favor of joining one of its neighbors (most likely Romania). There's still a strong bond between the two states, and most Moldovians would prefer to join their Romanian counterparts (in the event such a situation were to occur).


How about Belgium? A few months ago, it almost happened.

It probably will, though perhaps not in the immediate future.

[DarkPast]

Libya.

[El Louton]

England. North and South.

[Tommy4ever]

Belgium and Iraq are my best bets.

Sudan already divided itself between North and South. However it seems that there will likely be a war over the border (at independence it was still not decided and there are some oil reserves in the border regions) whilst Darfur really should join South Sudan in seceding.

Somalia will probably break up as awell - Somalialand (a bit in the North of the country) is already basically seperate afterall.

[ColonelCossack]

I've heard people say Libya.

Edit: Beaten to it lol. :blushing:

Why does that always happen?

[El Louton]

Belgium!? How and why?

[Smyg]

Belgium is divided between a Dutch-speaking Flemish north, a French-speaking Walloon south and a minor German-speaking community in the east. They don't like each others much.

[aty]

India, socialists already control large parts.

[Sasha]

Belgium!? How and why?


Belgium is divided between a Dutch-speaking Flemish north, a French-speaking Walloon south and a minor German-speaking community in the east. They don't like each others much.

not to mention they dont have a federal government now since 13th of june 2010 (and yes thats a world record) because they cant agree to form a workable coalition government after the huge win of the flemmish seperatist N-VA, the fact that the country regardless functions pretty smoothly because of their local parliaments makes more and more people wonder whether a split with all the separated parts working together in EU format is not a actual option

[ColonelCossack]

not to mention they dont have a federal government now since 13th of june 2010 (and yes thats a world record) because they cant agree to form a workable coalition government after the huge win of the flemmish seperatist N-VA, the fact that the country regardless functions pretty smoothly because of their local parliaments makes more and more people wonder whether a split with all the separated parts working together in EU format is not a actual option

So what do they have instead if that's not a stupid question?

[Sasha]

So what do they have instead if that's not a stupid question?


their federal government is now for 500+ days demissionair (caretaker cabinet) which means it can only keep the country running but isn't allowed to create new laws etc etc.
in the netherlands this would make the country ungovernable after such a long time but in belgium they have also local parliaments/political bodies for the different area's (flanders, walloon, bi-langual brussels, german-speaking part of walloon) that have significant political and juridical power

wikipedia explains it better than i can:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%932011_Belgian_government_formation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communities,_regions_and_language_areas_of_Belgium

[El Louton]

Belgium is divided between a Dutch-speaking Flemish north, a French-speaking Walloon south and a minor German-speaking community in the east. They don't like each others much.

I noticed that but I didn't see that much of a fracture.

[Smyg]

Interestingly enough, the rift between the communities is quite large.

[El Louton]

Interestingly enough, the rift between the communities is quite large.

I was in Bruges and they didn't like me practising my French but I thought it was just soft rivalry like the English speaking English in France. Is it quite serious then?

[His Dudeness]

5. Spain (Catalonia, Basque Country)


I personally think that the struggle for an independent Catalonia and Basque country lost a lot of support by the people of Catalonia and the Basque area. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[El Louton]

I personally think that the struggle for an independent Catalonia and Basque country lost a lot of support by the people of Catalonia and the Basque area. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm not sure but the Basque area is huge and when I've been in 'French Basque Country' they support Basque independence even some of the supermarkets do! They are a very patriotic kind!

[His Dudeness]

I'm not sure but the Basque area is huge and when I've been in 'French Basque Country' they support Basque independence even some of the supermarkets do! They are a very patriotic kind!
I have met some ETA supporters in the past. They said they wanted a an independent nation, but did almost nothing to achieve it. I actually want to know how active the people in the Basque area and Catalonia are for their independence.

[El Louton]

I guess the only way to find out is to go there. Believe me they want it. Have you ever seen the Tour de France on the TV? Look at a stage in the Pyrenees on youtube and watch those orange flags, t-shirts,banners etc.

[El Louton]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc6o319uuGE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEqQW1-casM&feature=related

For the second video go about 9 minutes in!

[Smyg]

I guess the only way to find out is to go there. Believe me they want it. Have you ever seen the Tour de France on the TV? Look at a stage in the Pyrenees on youtube and watch those orange flags, t-shirts,banners etc.

A close relative recently took a vacation to northern Spain, touring Asturia, the Basque area, etc. He brought home a camera full of almost nothing but separatist graffiti, flags and posters.

[His Dudeness]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rc6o319uuGE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEqQW1-casM&feature=related

For the second video go about 9 minutes in!
Those are nice and all, but I'm talking about the majority of the Basque people. Do they still actively support the independence of Basque country (like the majority of Kurdish people do with Kurdistan), or are they become more passive in the struggle for independence.

But still, the best answer to it is going to the Basque area by myself and I hope I get the opportunity soon.

[Franz Fanonipants]

ACW II gonna own bros

[Die Rote Fahne]

Pre-elections I would have said Canada...but Quebec nationalists (Bloc Québécois) lost like...70/75 seats in parliament...I think separatist sentiment has declined quite a bit.

[farleft]

I have been to Belgium many times and I feel it's best to speak English.

Some waitresses have seemed a bit irritated when speak French to them.

English is neutral so doesn't seem to offend anyone.

I did here that in Brussels on the metro there were so many arguments over which language the music should play in they ended up choosing English.

[pastradamus]

Well there are a great many states which could break up. A few are

Somiland from Somalia - This has already happened though nobody recognises them.
South Ossetia from Georgia
Abkhazia from Georgia
Western Sahara (polisario) from Morocco.
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic from Armenia.
Transnistria from Moldova.
Kurdistan from Turkey, Iraq and Iran.


Other states that could possible break up are - Libya, Yemen, South Sudan (further fragmentation), Papua New Guinea (Bougainville Island), Iraq (due to civil disorder and factioning).

[pastradamus]

I have been to Belgium many times and I feel it's best to speak English.

Some waitresses have seemed a bit irritated when speak French to them.

English is neutral so doesn't seem to offend anyone.

I did here that in Brussels on the metro there were so many arguments over which language the music should play in they ended up choosing English.

Do they have a government over there yet?

They apparently hold the World record for the longest elapsed time without an official head of state.

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

I'm somewhat amazed that Afghanistan even exists. Like, I seriously wonder why the Uzbeks, Pakistanis, Iranians, and Tajiks haven't just carved that place up.

Afghanistan exists because of Britain and Russia's actions.

[farleft]

As far as I am aware they still don't have a government and things are running really well.

[rundontwalk]

The most likely next newest country is New Caledonia though. They're going to have a referendum on independence from France here in a few years. Islands nations are pretty swell, I must say.

[Tifosi]

Papua New Guinea (Bougainville Island)

Yea, and Indonesian New Guinea which has a fairly strong separatist movement (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papua_conflict). No country has a huge ethnic transmigration program (http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmigration_program) for nothing.

[Veovis]

I personally think that the struggle for an independent Catalonia and Basque country lost a lot of support by the people of Catalonia and the Basque area. Correct me if I'm wrong.

I think I read somewhere that just under half of Catalan voters chose independence in a recent referendum.

[Pretty Flaco]

I don't see why some of you appear to be so happy about separatist movements. I hate to be a downer, but civil wars based on ethnicity have been some with the most appalling death tolls in history.

Some of the conflicts don't do anything to solve the problem of ethnic conflicts and instead work to further cause ethnic antagonisms.

[Comrade Gwydion]

I don't see why some of you appear to be so happy about separatist movements. I hate to be a downer, but civil wars based on ethnicity have been some with the most appalling death tolls in history.

Some of the conflicts don't do anything to solve the problem of ethnic conflicts and instead work to further cause ethnic antagonisms.

We are (or at least I am) not particulairy happy or unhappy about the seperatist struggles: it's merely interest.




Also, I've seen a lot of seperatist graffiti in Catalunya. Nice thing to see is that it's mostly leftist.



Problem in Belgium is indeed the fact that apart from 'disliking' each other, they've been functioning without central government for almost two years now. They're getting tired of that.

Funny thing though: I come from the southern part of the Netherlands. According to Dutch people my accent sounds like the accent of Flanders, and apperantly the french-speaking belgians agree. I've been advised to speak with a fake northern-dutch accent when I'm in Brussels, so that the bilingual-but-dominantly-french-speaking people of Brussels would know that I am Dutch and not from Flanders ^^