Greece Has No Good Options Left

[KurtFF8]

Source (http://news.yahoo.com/greece-no-good-options-left-134600556.html)



The stunning decision by Greece Prime Minister George Papandreou to hold a referendum (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=143ikf2iv/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.nytimes.com/2011/11/03/world/europe/greek-cabinet-backs-call-for-referendum-on-debt-crisis.html%3Fhp) on the $178 billion European bailout package has laid bare the miserable economic options the country has in front of it. On Wednesday, Papandreou's move to hold the referendum was swiftly rejected by a slew of Greek lawmakers, The New York Times reports, and raises the possibility that he will be removed from power in a no-confidence vote to be held on Friday. Why pass the decision on to the people? Papandreou is casting (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=123habd8b/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15553685) it as a democratic move, empowering the people. But take a look at the abysmal options Greece has in front of it and you may see why he'd like to punt the decision:
Related: In Confidence Vote, Greek Government Lives to Fight Another Day (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=13hi7214m/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.theatlanticwire.com/global/2011/06/greek-government-lives-fight-another-day/39103/)

Accept the bailout Though Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy would prefer Greece take the rescue package they labored over, Robert Reich (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=17hsp8ar3/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.guernicamag.com/blog/3219/robert_reich_greeces_choiceand/%3Futm_source=feedburner%26utm_medium=feed%26utm_c ampaign=Feed%253A%2BGuernica%252FBlog%2B%2528Guern ica%2B%252F%2BBlog%2529%26utm_content=Google%2BRea der), former labor secretary under President Clinton, explains why it's a tough pill to swallow. "If Greek voters accept the bailout terms, unemployment will rise even further in Greece, public services will be cut more than they have already, the Greek economy will contract, and the standard of living of most Greeks will deteriorate further," he writes in Guernica.
Related: Is the U.S. More Protectionist than China? (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=13j2fiit9/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.theatlanticwire.com/business/2009/09/is-the-u-s-more-protectionist-than-china/20832/)

Stay in the euro zone If Greece accepts the bailout, it would likely stay in the euro zone for a number of years. As The New Yorker's John Cassidy explains (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=13n36hm30/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2011/11/beware-of-greeks-bearing-referendums.html), that would ensure many more years of austerity and potential hardship. "If the Greeks stay with the euro? Even after the writedowns that were agreed to as part of the latest deal, the country’s debts would be very large: at least a hundred and twenty per cent of G.D.P., and probably more," he writes. "Tethered to the European currency, the only way for Greece to grow and prosper would be by reducing its labor costs—i.e., cutting wages—relative to other European countries and making its exports more competitive. With its fiscal policy dictated by Berlin and Paris, this would involve many more years of grinding austerity."
Related: The Dark Side of the European Stress Tests (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=13lb0poqv/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.theatlanticwire.com/business/2010/07/the-dark-side-of-the-european-stress-tests/23625/)

Reject the bailout Ditching the bailout has its downsides as well, explains, Reich. "If Greek voters reject the terms and the nation defaults, it will face far higher borrowing costs in the future. This may reduce the standard of living of most Greeks, too."
Related: Hopes and Fears Heading into Pittsburgh G20 (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=13mnfu6v5/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.theatlanticwire.com/business/2009/09/hopes-and-fears-heading-into-pittsburgh-g20/26912/)

Leave the Euro zone Although not a given if Greece rejects the rescue package, the country may very likely decide to exit the Euro zone and return to the drachma. Landon Thomas, Jr. (http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/SIG=141m09d5l/EXP=1321464174/**http%3A//www.nytimes.com/2011/11/02/business/global/plan-to-leave-euro-for-drachma-gains-support-in-greece.html) at The New York Times explains the downsides to that. "Default on the nation’s $500 billion in public debt would become a certainty, depositors would take their money out of local banks and, with a sharp devaluation of as much as 50 percent, inflation would loom. A return to the international credit markets would take years," he writes. Additionally, John Cassidy notes that "the country’s banking system would probably collapse—it’s pretty much a basket case already—inflation would rise, and there would be a period of chaos."


Interesting that the main picture associated with the story is this:


http://l1.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/lZ6WI63yJYvq_MKPlfVMng--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTI4MDtxPTg1O3c9NDMw/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/afp.com/000_Par6627791.jpg

[Grenzer]

Ah, the ubiquitious Che. Kind of funny to see his image juxtaposed with the flag of the imperialist EU.

You know that somehow the elite of the EU will be able to coerce Greece into meeting their demands. It already seems to have happened with the doubling back on the referendum. I have a feeling that no matter what happens, it will be the workers of Greece that get shafted.

[Rocky Rococo]

At this point, purely from the "pragmatic" point of view, the overthrow of the existing order and the revolutionary cancellation of debt seems like the most reasonable and effective course of action.

[mrmikhail]

At this point, purely from the "pragmatic" point of view, the overthrow of the existing order and the revolutionary cancellation of debt seems like the most reasonable and effective course of action.

This would indeed be the most reasonable and effective course of action, even just to default would be perfect. Argentina and Russia are two prime examples of nations defaulting on their debts and today have expanding economies.

Now the problem with this is Greece is in the EU and NATO, while Argentina and Russia were not.

The EU is not just going to sit back and let Greece screw their pockets over so heavily (much the way Iceland is trying to do, with their rejection of earlier repayment plan, and now the UK and Netherlands are planning on hurting them economically pretty terribly) and NATO isn't going to allow a revolution to take over one of it's member states without at least some sort of fight. So I fear any revolution in Greece will be an uphill fight if at all possible, but I still hold out hopes the Greek military will, being conscripts, side largely with the people if some events come to fruition.

[Rainsborough]

This would indeed be the most reasonable and effective course of action, even just to default would be perfect. Argentina and Russia are two prime examples of nations defaulting on their debts and today have expanding economies.

Now the problem with this is Greece is in the EU and NATO, while Argentina and Russia were not.

The EU is not just going to sit back and let Greece screw their pockets over so heavily (much the way Iceland is trying to do, with their rejection of earlier repayment plan, and now the UK and Netherlands are planning on hurting them economically pretty terribly) and NATO isn't going to allow a revolution to take over one of it's member states without at least some sort of fight. So I fear any revolution in Greece will be an uphill fight if at all possible, but I still hold out hopes the Greek military will, being conscripts, side largely with the people if some events come to fruition.

Surely if a revolution does break out in Greece (and I see no other option than utter surrender to the bourgoisie) what do we European leftists do, reform the International Brigades and rush to defend our revolutionary brothers and sisters, or utter harsh words from the sidelines?

[Thirsty Crow]

Surely if a revolution does break out in Greece (and I see no other option than utter surrender to the bourgoisie) what do we European leftists do, reform the International Brigades and rush to defend our revolutionary brothers and sisters, or utter harsh words from the sidelines?
This would be a catastrophic turn of events, even if it were possible - and I think it is not.
Something more "reasonable" would be to work as swiftly as possible for proletarian revolutions in other countries, as only that could save any revolutionary government in Greece.

[Rainsborough]

This would be a catastrophic turn of events, even if it were possible - and I think it is not.
Something more "reasonable" would be to work as swiftly as possible for proletarian revolutions in other countries, as only that could save any revolutionary government in Greece.

So in a nut shell, we do nothing?

[KurtFF8]

So in a nut shell, we do nothing?

Agitating for a workers revolution in your own country is doing nothing to you?

[mrmikhail]

This would be a catastrophic turn of events, even if it were possible - and I think it is not.
Something more "reasonable" would be to work as swiftly as possible for proletarian revolutions in other countries, as only that could save any revolutionary government in Greece.

That seems even less possible than a revolution in Greece itself, to be honest with you. Workers elsewhere are not yet pushed so far as to be on the brink of open revolt, as the Greeks are at the moment.

As for what to do, international brigades are always an option, have always been a fan of them in the SCW, but an action that could also be taken would be to try to get workers in other nations to act in solidarity with the Greeks, should they revolt, with strikes and pressure on their own governments to not intervene against the revolution.

[Rainsborough]

Agitating for a workers revolution in your own country is doing nothing to you?

Oh we can agitate, we've been doing that for countless years with little success.
But if an armed struggle erupts in Greece between the people and the forces of reaction and capitalism, how will 'agitation' help?

[KurtFF8]

Oh we can agitate, we've been doing that for countless years with little success.
But if an armed struggle erupts in Greece between the people and the forces of reaction and capitalism, how will 'agitation' help?

I've heard of countless stories of revolutionaries in places like the US going to join struggles else where. Most of the advise given to the US revolutionaries is that they should be in the US trying to establish a socialist society there, not leaving it and joining other folks struggles.

[mrmikhail]

I've heard of countless stories of revolutionaries in places like the US going to join struggles else where. Most of the advise given to the US revolutionaries is that they should be in the US trying to establish a socialist society there, not leaving it and joining other folks struggles.

The US has far too long a road to even think about a socialist society. The unions would first have to be reformed into something more than corrupt corporate puppets (union leaders make as much as CEOs of fortune 500 companies) also these unions need to be democratised, and then perhaps a reform of the solidarity of the unions and abandonment of terrible organisations such as the AFL-CIO which serve to only hurt the labour movement.

Good could come of joining other people's stuggles as those participating would see first hand the ideals of a revolution and could then export those back to America, perhaps having a positive influence on what I have mentioned before.

[KurtFF8]

But I don't see how that challenges my point in any way.

The importance of struggle in the US shouldn't be downplayed just because it seems difficult. (And with OWS, there's a new opening in a sense)

[IndependentCitizen]

Surely if a revolution does break out in Greece (and I see no other option than utter surrender to the bourgoisie) what do we European leftists do, reform the International Brigades and rush to defend our revolutionary brothers and sisters, or utter harsh words from the sidelines?

I don't think I'd be willing to go fight, however, if a fund was set up to support them like there was for the PIRA, then yes, I'd regularly donate.

[El Louton]

I think Nationalism will become popular in Greece and Eastern Europe. Again. Sadly.

[R_P_A_S]

Isn't this the perfect time for workers to occupy factories and produce for the needs of their local communities and well being. Sort of like the workers did in Argentina during their financial melt down?

I know it might sound a bit romantic and far fetched but think about it. These are financial issues caused by their rulers and financial institutions. All those options they have are fucking workers out of basically everything. Why not just fuck THEM (the rulers) and run it your self?

I know I make it sound easier than it is but with those "options" this is worth putting up on the table.

[Rusty Shackleford]

The only way to even make socialism a point of discussion in the future is to fight for it now, and here. so the fuck what if its not going to happen in our lifetimes. We cant take the experiences of Greece or Venezuela and graft those experiences onto the US. It wont work. Struggle has to happen here to find the way to advance the struggle here.

If you dont experience it, then how can you ponder upon it?

And yes, they will tell you "help us by fighting for socialism in the US" Because the US is the heard of global capitalism and the last remaining 'super power' with a virtual monopoly on imperialism. (It basically controls NATO). If this not defeated here, then how can a revolution survive elsewhere without deformities, retreats, and collapses happening in those revolutionary countries?

Socialist construction, more than anything else, needs the absence of war and imperialism. Without it, a revolution's clock is ticking. No matter how well or badly a revolution was carried out will not matter if it is crushed by the weight of imperialism.


People wonder why the American left is so fucking weak, well, here's your answer: Liberals leave before they develop consciousness in some form of flaccid protest. Communists leave to 'help' other struggles in flaccid support. Everyone has the mindset that the struggle for socialism is too difficult and 'oh woe is me, i will never experience socialism!'

[A Marxist Historian]

Oh we can agitate, we've been doing that for countless years with little success.
But if an armed struggle erupts in Greece between the people and the forces of reaction and capitalism, how will 'agitation' help?

If you have a workers revolution in Greece, or anywhere, the consequences will be explosive. Just look at what happened after the far less sweeping, merely democratic revolution in Tunisia.

You would not necessarily have instant revolution all over Europe in the Arab world fashion, but you would have tremendous working class rebellions ensuing.

During the Russian Revolution, some twenty countries tried to intervene to suppress it. Although the German and Austro-Hungarian Revolutions that the Russian Revolution sparked ultimately failed, working class rebellion compelled the French and even the British to pull their troops out.

So no, it won't be that simple for the EU to send in troops to suppress a Greek workers' revolution. The EU is not exactly a terribly effective military force anyway, and I very much doubt that German soldiers would be too thrilled about trying to conquer Greece. Last time they did that, it did not go well.

The US, to invade Iraq, had to take decades to overcome the "Vietnam syndrome." Well, the "Auschwitz syndrome" is even worse, from the German imperial perspective.

-M.H.-

[A Marxist Historian]

Isn't this the perfect time for workers to occupy factories and produce for the needs of their local communities and well being. Sort of like the workers did in Argentina during their financial melt down?

I know it might sound a bit romantic and far fetched but think about it. These are financial issues caused by their rulers and financial institutions. All those options they have are fucking workers out of basically everything. Why not just fuck THEM (the rulers) and run it your self?

I know I make it sound easier than it is but with those "options" this is worth putting up on the table.

They made a good try of it in Argentina, but it basically didn't work, and the factory occupations have all collapsed by now. A practical demonstration that building a socialist island inside a capitalist economy is impossible, as each factory discovered that it was too dependent on credit from bankers, good relations with suppliers and middlemen, etc. etc. for it to work.

No, you have to overthrow the capitalist state and establish a workers state for experiments like that to be workable.

But then again, Greece was after all a neighbor of Yugoslavia, and Titoist self-management worked, as everybody in Greece knows, disastrously badly, leading right back to capitalism as the enterprises immediately start competing with each other, recreating national antagonisms in the Yugoslav case. Even with capitalism abolished, "workers self-management" just doesn't work in a modern economy. It's all too interconnected, you have to have central planning.

-M.H.-

[Jose Gracchus]

"Central planning" was a disaster and succeeded neither in centralizing the real economy nor planning it.

I do think society should consciously and rationally appropriate use-value in order to serve human needs, but that probably could not be but the furthest thing from Stalinist economic administration, i.e. "central planning".