Socialist Party / CWI challenging for victory in parliamentary by-election

[Jolly Red Giant]

Next Thursday a parliamentary by-election takes place in Dublin West.

Dublin West is primarily a working class constituency with some wealthier areas and normally returns four TD's (members of parliament) to the Dail (Irish Parliament) under the Proportional Representation - STV system.

In the last general election in February Dublin West returned the following TD's

Leo Varadker (Fine Gael) - current Transport minister
Joan Burton (Labour Party) - current Social Welfare minister
Joe Higgins (Socialist Party / CWI)
Brian Lenihan (Fianna Fail) - former Finance Minister

Dublin West was the only constituency in Dublin that returned a TD from the outgoing govenment

The by-election was caused by the death of Lenihan after a long battle with cancer.

In the general election in Feb the votes broke down as -

Labour 29%
Fine Gael 27%
Socialist Party 19%
Fianna Fail 16%
Sinn Fein 6%

The Labour Party have been long-term favourites to win the by-election but as the campaign has progressd the gap between the Labour candidate Councillor Patrick Nulty and the Socialist Party candidate Councillor Ruth Coppinger has narrowed considerably.

It is clear that Labour, FG and FF will all lose votes and the Socialist Party and Sinn Fein will gain. The contest is clearly breaking down into a pro-austerity and anti-austerity battle (Sinn Fein oppose austerity in the South but implement it in the North of Ireland where they are in government). The result will be determined by how much of a swing occurs between now and Thursday.

Apart from the implementation of ECB/IMF austerity the main issues in the election is the building of a national campaign of non-payment against a proposed Household tax and water charges. The Socialist Party are part of the non-payment campaign (Sinn Fein have called on people to pay the tax and 'vote for us'). The second major issue is related to cutbacks in the local hospital, Connolly Hospital, which has seen its budget cut by almost 20% leading to bed closures and job losses.

The Socialist Party is also part of the United Left Alliance. If Ruth Coppinger is successful this week it will mean that the Socialist Party will hold two of the four seats in Dublin West and the ULA will have six seats in the Dail.

The vote takes place on Thursday and the votes are counted on Friday.

Ruth Coppinger's website -
http://ruthcoppinger.com/

Socialist Party manifesto -
http://www.socialistparty.net/component/content/article/63-elections/804-socialist-party-by-election-manifesto

[Smyg]

This'll be interesting.

[Iraultzaile Ezkerreko]

Good luck!

[Aurora]

It is clear that Labour, FG and FF will all lose votes and the Socialist Party and Sinn Fein will gain.
I don't think that dissatisfaction with the FG/Lab government has risen prominently yet, it's getting there that's for sure but theres a lot of support for the current government still and that's not going to break until they start unleashing the household and water tax's and other austerity measures.

I think your right that Sinn Fein will gain votes but i'm not quite sure that Ruth Coppinger will get as many votes as Joe Higgins who has a much more prominent national recognition and at least some of that is a personal recognition, i really hope she does well though it would be a great position for the SP to go into the next general election with 2 TD's in Dublin West as undoubtedly the next general election will be fought along a much clearer class line.

[Jolly Red Giant]

but i'm not quite sure that Ruth Coppinger will get as many votes as Joe Higgins who has a much more prominent national recognition and at least some of that is a personal recognition,
All the indications are that the vote for Joe Higgins in the last general election is transferring to Ruth Coppinger and that support is growing. Canvass returns indicate than many voters in the newer housing estates who backed FG last time out (in an anybody but FF vote) have switched to the Socialist Party

[Broletariat]

We all know how trustworthy parliamentary Socialists are, it's not like they'll betray the trust of the workers at the climax of a 48 general strike or anything.

[LewisQ]

Worth pointing out that Coppinger is a sitting local councillor with a large personal vote of her own. I don't think she'll quite make it (she has the misfortune to be up against the most left-wing candidate Labour have fielded for a decade) but it will be close enough.

[Aurora]

We all know how trustworthy parliamentary Socialists are, it's not like they'll betray the trust of the workers at the climax of a 48 general strike or anything.

The Socialist Party aren't parliamentary socialists, they're revolutionary socialists who use elections as a platform to advocate socialism on doorsteps, in the papers, on national tv and who use their positions on local councils and in parliament to win concessions for workers and oppose the bankruptcy of the government and capitalism as a whole.
If we're going to make silly comparisons, it's not like they'll topple a provisional government and establish a soviet republic or anything. :rolleyes:

If you want to discuss running in elections as a tactic(which has been done to death) perhaps you should start another thread.

[Broletariat]

The Socialist Party aren't parliamentary socialists, they're revolutionary socialists who use elections as a platform to advocate socialism on doorsteps, in the papers, on national tv and who use their positions on local councils and in parliament to win concessions for workers and oppose the bankruptcy of the government and capitalism as a whole.

If you want to discuss running in elections as a tactic(which has been done to death) perhaps you should start another thread.


It has nothing to do with running in elections as a tactic. It has everything to do with the fact that once you're in parliament, your material interests change, same as if you suddenly became a rich as shit member of the bourgeoisie.

Unless you want to tell me that their ideal interests can overcome their material interests, at which point I'd be forced to assume you were not a materialist but an idealist unless you presented a fairly convincing argument otherwise.

[Aurora]

It has everything to do with the fact that once you're in parliament, your material interests change,

There is definitely a danger of that, which is why Socialist Party representatives only take the average workers wage, which hardly gives them the same conditions as the bourgeois. A Socialist TD owns no means of production, employs no wage-labour, receives a workers wage, constantly comes into contact with workers and is responsible to the party.
So far Socialist Party representatives have not compromised their positions, merely spread them to a wider audience.

[Conscript]

It has nothing to do with running in elections as a tactic. It has everything to do with the fact that once you're in parliament, your material interests change, same as if you suddenly became a rich as shit member of the bourgeoisie.

Unless you want to tell me that their ideal interests can overcome their material interests, at which point I'd be forced to assume you were not a materialist but an idealist unless you presented a fairly convincing argument otherwise.

Thats like saying broke socialists are going to sell drugs because its in their material interests. This is vulgar materialism.

[Crux]

Worth pointing out that Coppinger is a sitting local councillor with a large personal vote of her own. I don't think she'll quite make it (she has the misfortune to be up against the most left-wing candidate Labour have fielded for a decade) but it will be close enough.
But is that really in Patrick "I will always vote with the government" Nulty's favour?

[Broletariat]

There is definitely a danger of that, which is why Socialist Party representatives only take the average workers wage, which hardly gives them the same conditions as the bourgeois. A Socialist TD owns no means of production, employs no wage-labour, receives a workers wage, constantly comes into contact with workers and is responsible to the party.
So far Socialist Party representatives have not compromised their positions, merely spread them to a wider audience.

The power of government is more than just in the form of wages. I'm skeptical of this argument, especially in light of what the KKE did. If you could highlight the differences between the SP and the KKE in respects to how they approach parliament I may be more willing to consider.

[Broletariat]

Thats like saying broke socialists are going to sell drugs because its in their material interests. This is vulgar materialism.


I don't see how it is vulgar materialism seeing as how the action you described may or may not have been carried out by a comrade of mine while he was on hard times.

[Sentinel]

If Ruth Coppinger is successful this week it will mean that the Socialist Party will hold two of the four seats in Dublin West and the ULA will have six seats in the Dail.


Thanks for this interesting news. It would also mean that the SP became the largest group within ULA in the dail. :cool:

I definitely agree with those who pointed out that there are plenty of threads discussing partaking in elections as a tactic for the revolutionary left. Those who want to discuss that should use them or start a new one and not clutter this important news thread.

I'm not going to split the posts as I'm CWI and involved in this, but I will ask another moderator to do that unless this comradely request is respected.

[Jolly Red Giant]

The latest cynical attacks by the establishment on Ruth Coppinger's campaign have come in the form of an attack by Fianna Fail's David McGuinness over the call by the Socialist Party to increase corporation tax in Ireland. The Socialist Party is the only party standing in the by-election that supports increasing corporation tax.

Ruth Coppinger's response is here -
http://ruthcoppinger.com/corporation-tax-my-response-to-fianna-fails-attack/


It would also mean that the SP became the largest group within ULA in the dail.
It would not be of any real relevence in parliamentary terms other than the ULA would get a little more speaking time in parliamentary debates and have an extra position on a parliamentary committee.

However, Ruth Coppinger's election (or even a narrow defeat) would give a significant boost to efforts to build the ULA and to the various campaigns against austerity.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Just heard some off-the-record reports that Fianna Fail are suggesting that the Labour vote will be down significantly and the Socialist Party vote will be up.

[BOZG]

It has nothing to do with running in elections as a tactic. It has everything to do with the fact that once you're in parliament, your material interests change, same as if you suddenly became a rich as shit member of the bourgeoisie.

Unless you want to tell me that their ideal interests can overcome their material interests, at which point I'd be forced to assume you were not a materialist but an idealist unless you presented a fairly convincing argument otherwise.

Interesting method of argument - make an accusation, provide no supporting argument and then demand that the other person prove your accusation wrong.

[Sentinel]

It would not be of any real relevence in parliamentary terms other than the ULA would get a little more speaking time in parliamentary debates and have an extra position on a parliamentary committee.


The prestige, comrade, the prestige. We could boast with SP being largest and most prominent group in the ULA parliament group. ;)

[Smyg]

The parliamentary game is all about publicity, remember? You need to seize every moment and opportunity to go forward.

[A Marxist Historian]

The power of government is more than just in the form of wages. I'm skeptical of this argument, especially in light of what the KKE did. If you could highlight the differences between the SP and the KKE in respects to how they approach parliament I may be more willing to consider.

As for the CWI and how they approach parliament, well, we had a very extensive thread that started as an abstract one about how to revive the socialist movement in Britain and turned into a thread about the CWI's ancestors, the Militant group, and what they did when they were running Liverpool in the '80s. "Rebuilding the socialist politics in the UK."

It has died, but if there are those seriously interested in studying the SP and its approach to parliament etc. that is the place to go.

It could be revived, I for one have more things to say on the question.

Here's a link for the last page:

http://www.revleft.com/vb/rebuilding-socialist-politics-t155170/index19.html?t=155170&page=19&highlight=Rebuilding+socialist+politics

-M.H.-

[Sentinel]

As for the CWI and how they approach parliament, well, we had a very extensive thread that started as an abstract one about how to revive the socialist movement in Britain and turned into a thread about the CWI's ancestors, the Militant group, and what they did when they were running Liverpool in the '80s. "Rebuilding the socialist politics in the UK."

It has died, but if there are those seriously interested in studying the SP and its approach to parliament etc. that is the place to go.

It could be revived, I for one have more things to say on the question.

Here's a link for the last page:

http://www.revleft.com/vb/rebuilding...alist+politics (http://www.revleft.com/vb/rebuilding-socialist-politics-t155170/index19.html?t=155170&page=19&highlight=Rebuilding+socialist+politics)

-M.H.- Thanks, that will be an interesting read for a relatively new CWI member like me. :)

Even though CWI-aligned parties like the Irish SP nowadays participate in parliamentary politics under their own banner -- rather than using entryist tactics like back in the Militant Tendency's days -- I'm sure that the general appoach and attitude towards doing it has always been pretty much the same.

That said, I have studied the organisation's history some, but I'm sure I'll learn something new from reading this. I'll check it out.

[Crux]

Thanks, that will be an interesting read for a relatively new CWI member like me. :)

Even though CWI-aligned parties like the Irish CP nowadays participate in parliamentary politics under their own banner -- rather than using entryist tactics like back in the Militant Tendency's days -- I'm sure that the general appoach and attitude towards doing it has always been pretty much the same.

That said, I have studied the organisation's history some, but I'm sure I'll learn something new from reading this. I'll check it out.
SP. ;)
Anyway, that thread is mostly a spart riding his spart hobby horse, hence why it died and why he is bringing it up here.
So, AMH, anything to add on our record in the irish parliament?

[Sentinel]

SP. http://www.revleft.com/vb/../revleft/smilies/wink.gif

That was a typo, as you can see from my earlier posts where I refer to it as SP. :blushing:

Thanks for pointing it out, I've fixed it now.

[LewisQ]

But is that really in Patrick "I will always vote with the government" Nulty's favour?
Labour voters are good at denial, and it will be easier to vote for a left-wing social democrat than one of their notionally further right candidates. Materially, there is no difference, of course. Nulty is a decent bloke but he'll prove to be just another body in the austerity front.

Would be interesting if Coppinger got elected. She would have to be replaced on Fingal County Council by a co-opted SP nominee (no bye-elections at local government level), which would mean that all of the SP's Fingal councillors, as well as their sitting MEP, would be non-directly elected co-options. They don't make the rules, but there's still a bit of a democratic deficit there.

[A Marxist Historian]

SP. ;)
Anyway, that thread is mostly a spart riding his spart hobby horse, hence why it died and why he is bringing it up here.
So, AMH, anything to add on our record in the irish parliament?

No actually. I do not claim omniscience.

-M.H.-

[Sam_b]

Not taking any particular side here, but saying that CWI members take a worker's wage does not mean anything in the middle of a jobs massacre. Keeping down a job on a comparitively good wage at a time when there are tens of thousands of long-term unemployed and aye, I think your conditions and priorities do change.

I think the real question here concerns electoralism as a tactic at a time when this organisational method is increasingly being spurned by newly radicalised people, especially young people and the unemployed.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Not taking any particular side here, but saying that CWI members take a worker's wage does not mean anything in the middle of a jobs massacre.

I think the real question here concerns electoralism as a tactic at a time when this organisational method is increasingly being spurned by newly radicalised people, especially young people and the unemployed.

Of course the worker's wage is important - it bugs the living daylights out of the establishment to start with. Interestingly Ruth Coppinger will be taking a pay cut if elected.

As for your comment on electoralism - it would be relevant if it was the only or even the main tactic - but it isn't

[pastradamus]

Not taking any particular side here, but saying that CWI members take a worker's wage does not mean anything in the middle of a jobs massacre. Keeping down a job on a comparitively good wage at a time when there are tens of thousands of long-term unemployed and aye, I think your conditions and priorities do change.

I would disagree with this point. Anybody who accepts the average industrial wage when going into office is proving to the public that they (unlike other mainstream parties FF & FG) are not careerists and oppurtunists and is in the race for all the right reasons. I think taking a workers wage is a massive thing, even if just to be in some way as a show of solidarity.

[Jimmy Haddow (SPS)]

"I think the real question here concerns electoralism as a tactic at a time when this organisational method is increasingly being spurned by newly radicalised people, especially young people and the unemployed."



It is ironic that Sam b should criticise the tactic of using parliamentary and local authority positions in Ireland to raise working class demands considering that the organisation he belongs to, the ISG, wants to have an immediate ‘Left Unity Group’ formed in Scotland to stand in elections because it would attract thousands of people to its banner. Also it is a bit simple to say that in Britain and Ireland that elections are being increasingly spurned by the new people becoming involved in politics so socialist should not be doing it. There are thousands of other workers out there who are involved in the struggle, more than what is involved in the Occupation Camps by the way, who do need a political voice as well. I am very supportive of the Occupation camps and have been to discuss with the ‘campees’ but the conundrum I have is that they have no real programme to eliminate the problems we have in society that is caused by capitalism. All they say is we are the 99% and they are the 1% and we have no leaders and everything is decided by assembly. They know what they do not want, but they do not know what they want is my view. Now elected socialist politicians of the calibre of Joe Higgins and Clare Daly, and if elected Ruth Coppinger do have a programme to eradicate the social ills of society and use the Dail and other parliamentary institutions to propagate the socialist ideas. They also help their constituents with the day to day problems that no one else will do. So do not denigrate it please. On the question of the unemployed the Trade unions should be taking up this question to stop the unemployed being exploited by the companies’ through-out the country.

[Sam_b]

It is ironic that Sam b should criticise the tactic of using parliamentary and local authority positions in Ireland to raise working class demands

I'm not criticising any tactic - I'm merely offering food for thought.


the organisation he belongs to, the ISG, wants to have an immediate ‘Left Unity Group’ formed in Scotland to stand in elections because it would attract thousands of people to its banner.

I mean, you can draw your own conclusions all you like (why so defensive?), or the intent, or people can read our statement here (http://internationalsocialist.org.uk/index.php/2011/09/open-letter-for-left-unity-and-renewal/). Am I not allowed to bounce ideas around other leftists in threads, or is everything in a thread about the CWI that isn't a thumbs-up some sort of open attack on the grand ol' organisation?

As an aside, where has SPS been when other groups in Scotland have been working together?


Also it is a bit simple to say that in Britain and Ireland that elections are being increasingly spurned by the new people becoming involved in politics so socialist should not be doing it.

Point out where I said this?


Occupation camps and have been to discuss with the ‘campees’ but the conundrum I have is that they have no real programme to eliminate the problems we have in society that is caused by capitalism. All they say is we are the 99% and they are the 1% and we have no leaders and everything is decided by assembly. They know what they do not want, but they do not know what they want is my view


I agree - yet I am failing to see the relevance here.

[pastradamus]

"There are thousands of other workers out there who are involved in the struggle, more than what is involved in the Occupation Camps by the way, who do need a political voice as well. I am very supportive of the Occupation camps and have been to discuss with the ‘campees’ but the conundrum I have is that they have no real programme to eliminate the problems we have in society that is caused by capitalism. All they say is we are the 99% and they are the 1% and we have no leaders and everything is decided by assembly. They know what they do not want, but they do not know what they want is my view.

The occupy protesters are doing what they believe is the right thing to do. They are in my opinion noble for their plight and I believe the public are genuinely in support of them. They are highlighting in a very peaceful way that they are fed-up of the bailouts and that the public are distressed at the government and the troika's actions. The Socialist party ploughs the same furrow but uses different tactics - that is all. Its simply a matter of the tactics employed. They (the campees) do have a strong message and they are angry at the current conditions upon which crux the Irish (and international) public have had to bear. I think that is CLEARLY their message and the reason I dont think they have offered solutions is because that isn't their job, its the politicians and the elected officials. They are doing a heroic job in sleeping in cold tents at night to deliver a clear message to the political elite, So i believe any criticism of them is unwarranted.



Now elected socialist politicians of the calibre of Joe Higgins and Clare Daly, and if elected Ruth Coppinger do have a programme to eradicate the social ills of society and use the Dail and other parliamentary institutions to propagate the socialist ideas. They also help their constituents with the day to day problems that no one else will do. So do not denigrate it please. On the question of the unemployed the Trade unions should be taking up this question to stop the unemployed being exploited by the companies’ through-out the country.

I work for a trade union (IWU). People like SP councillor Mick Barry are also in my union (He heads our "home helps" section) and I believe he is the best politician and most honest in Cork City at the moment. SIPTU, Mandate and the others working under the "social partners" umbrella have betrayed the working class. They have been virtually silent for the past number of months whilst our own trade union has been protesting and publicising heavily over the past number of months. We are a small union but I like to think we punch above our weight here in Cork. The main obstacle the trade union movement faces currently - is the Labour Court. It has made a gigantic shift to the right in the past couple of years and has found in favour of the employer to an almost irrational extent in some cases so what id like for the SP to do would be to work more with the Unions where possible in the future as they did so well in the past.

[Soldier of life]

The occupy protesters are doing what they believe is the right thing to do. They are in my opinion noble for their plight and I believe the public are genuinely in support of them. They are highlighting in a very peaceful way that they are fed-up of the bailouts and that the public are distressed at the government and the troika's actions. The Socialist party ploughs the same furrow but uses different tactics - that is all. Its simply a matter of the tactics employed. They (the campees) do have a strong message and they are angry at the current conditions upon which crux the Irish (and international) public have had to bear. I think that is CLEARLY their message and the reason I dont think they have offered solutions is because that isn't their job, its the politicians and the elected officials. They are doing a heroic job in sleeping in cold tents at night to deliver a clear message to the political elite, So i believe any criticism of them is unwarranted.




I work for a trade union (IWU). People like SP councillor Mick Barry are also in my union (He heads our "home helps" section) and I believe he is the best politician and most honest in Cork City at the moment. SIPTU, Mandate and the others working under the "social partners" umbrella have betrayed the working class. They have been virtually silent for the past number of months whilst our own trade union has been protesting and publicising heavily over the past number of months. We are a small union but I like to think we punch above our weight here in Cork. The main obstacle the trade union movement faces currently - is the Labour Court. It has made a gigantic shift to the right in the past couple of years and has found in favour of the employer to an almost irrational extent in some cases so what id like for the SP to do would be to work more with the Unions where possible in the future as they did so well in the past.

The IWU have some great people in it, met one of your Wicklow people the other day.

All the best to Ruth in this election, would be brilliant to see a socialist win a Dublin by-election, especially in the context of growing SF support and publicity gained during the presidential election, it being the homepatch of 2 very prominent government ministers as well as the fact that Nulty is about as far left as you will find in the Labour Party.

Higgins' vote of course has a personal element to it. I guess the result will have a lot to do with the sitting TD's votes transferring to their colleagues.

The FG candidate btw, is atrocious. I must watch her appearance on Vincent Browne, I heard she was pretty special.

[Crux]

The IWU have some great people in it, met one of your Wicklow people the other day.

All the best to Ruth in this election, would be brilliant to see a socialist win a Dublin by-election, especially in the context of growing SF support and publicity gained during the presidential election, it being the homepatch of 2 very prominent government ministers as well as the fact that Nulty is about as far left as you will find in the Labour Party.

Higgins' vote of course has a personal element to it. I guess the result will have a lot to do with the sitting TD's votes transferring to their colleagues.

The FG candidate btw, is atrocious. I must watch her appearance on Vincent Browne, I heard she was pretty special.
Yeah, Loftus, the FG candidate is pretty..special. I've been trying to keep up from over here. As for Higgins personal vote, sure, but it seems Ruth has managed to pick up most of that as well as mobilizing her own base. As far as I can tell the biggest threat at the momemnt would be Nulty winning on FG transfers, but yeah fingers crossed. Another SP/ULA TD would be great. Let's hope SF's transfers are less Labour friendly than they were in the GE, although I suppose that is quite possible.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Let's hope SF's transfers are less Labour friendly than they were in the GE, although I suppose that is quite possible.
It won't be an issue - in the general election in Dublin West last February Joe Higgins was already elected before the SF candidate was eliminated. You have to go back to 2002 to find a comparable transfer. On that occasion the Socialist Party got 45% of SF's votes - the LP got 11% and 20% were non-transferrable (this will be lower because SF are getting more than their normal core vote in DW). A similar transfer pattern existed in 1997

[Jolly Red Giant]

The Daily Mail is carrying reports of an internal Fine Gael poll on the Dublin West by-election.

The poll however, has to be taken with a large amount of salt. Parties generally leak 'internal opinion polls' when they are doing badly in order to try and boost their position.

Anyway for anyone interested - The details are as follows - and I have added my comments from another forum where it was being discussed.

LP 24.5%
FG 22%,
Socialist Party 19%
FF 14%
SF 7%

My comments
Did anyone notice that the totals only came to 86%

Now if it is including don't knows it would suggest the breakdown excluding don't knows is -

LP 28%
FG 25%
SP 21.5%
FF 16%
SF 8%

Now compare that to the last general election

LP 29%
FG 27%
SP 19%
FF 16.5%
SF 6%

This would indicate very minor changes to the general election result

Now I will pose a couple of the more obvious questions

1. Does anyone seriously believe that the policies of the government will have such a minimal impact on a constituency that has seen some of the most active public opposition to it?
2. Does anyone seriously believe that McGuinness will get the same vote as Lenhian last February?
3. Does anyone seriously believe the SF will get very little bounce compared to February?

Now the most important point is the fact that those on the canvass - particularly those from the Socialist Party and SF - readily report a far more positive response in areas that were more supportive of FG and LP in the general election.

My personal opinion is FG are flying a kite with this one and nobody would be taking any notice if a couple of public opinion polls had been done.

[Blackscare]

I know this is off topic, but holy shit parliamentary electoral procedure sounds complicated. All these stats and point spreads, I feel like I'm betting on a baseball game or something. I used to wonder why, in the USA, we didn't implement something like this because it always struck me a a lot more representative. Now I know the reason; we're too dumb to manage that shit. Our voter turnout is already dismal and it's the electoral equivalent of flipping a light switch.

[Sam_b]

Did anyone notice that the totals only came to 86%

Not everybody who is polled will be planning to vote in the election. 86% is an incredible turnout for a by-election.

[pastradamus]

I know this is off topic, but holy shit parliamentary electoral procedure sounds complicated. All these stats and point spreads, I feel like I'm betting on a baseball game or something. I used to wonder why, in the USA, we didn't implement something like this because it always struck me a a lot more representative. Now I know the reason; we're too dumb to manage that shit. Our voter turnout is already dismal and it's the electoral equivalent of flipping a light switch.


The Proportional Representation system, in particular the Single transferable vote, we use here in Ireland is a fantastic voting system I must say. It tends to be an advantage to independent candidates when compared to the First-past the poll system used in the UK and USA.

[BOZG]

Did anyone notice that the totals only came to 86%

It also ignores the independents - I doubt any will do well but they should pull a few percent between the lot of them.

And the FG figures are certainly optimistic - at the start of the campaign, they were potentially possible but Loftus is incompetent and looks like she's been doped up most of the time. They'd have done better if they just put her on a poster and then kept her hidden for the campaign.



I know this is off topic, but holy shit parliamentary electoral procedure sounds complicated. All these stats and point spreads, I feel like I'm betting on a baseball game or something. I used to wonder why, in the USA, we didn't implement something like this because it always struck me a a lot more representative. Now I know the reason; we're too dumb to manage that shit. Our voter turnout is already dismal and it's the electoral equivalent of flipping a light switch.

Ha ha. The stats here are the most straight forward part of PR-STV - it's when you start looking at the preference breakdowns, surplus distribution and its order etc that it gets complicated.

Guide to PR-STV (http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/LocalGovernment/Voting/FileDownLoad,1895,en.pdf)

JRG is an old hand at tallying and could probably give you a lesson or two on it!

[Jolly Red Giant]

The Proportional Representation system, in particular the Single transferable vote, we use here in Ireland is a fantastic voting system I must say. It tends to be an advantage to independent candidates when compared to the First-past the poll system used in the UK and USA.
I actually disagree about the form of PR used in Ireland - yes it is better than the FPTP system - but it is far from perfect

Two changes that in my view would make it more representative (and notice I didn't use the word 'democratic')

1. Using the entire vote rather than selective bundles for distributing surpluses

and - more importantly

2. Introducing single seat constituencies.

One thing that makes this by-election difficult to predict is the conscious decision to keep the issues of the by-election completely out of the media. There has been zero debate (with the exception of one programme) on austerity - the real issue in the country - and instead have been treated to five weeks of drivil about an election (for President) to a position with no power and no influence. It even went from the sublime to the ridiculous when one of the candidates had a tyre blow-out and all of a sudden there was an assassination attempt against her (if someone was going to kill her they would have done it when she tried singing as a career).

[pastradamus]

2. Introducing single seat constituencies.


You had my agreement up until this point. Do you mean that, for example, Dublin West would only have one elected official? rather than 4 or 5?

[Jolly Red Giant]

You had my agreement up until this point. Do you mean that, for example, Dublin West would only have one elected official? rather than 4 or 5?
No - Mulhuddart would have one, Blanchardstown one, Castleknock one etc.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Counting starts at 9 am tomorrow. First indications should emerge around 11 o'clock. I will try and keep this thread updated with details as they become available.

[pastradamus]

Well it seems the Labour candidate has been elected. Though the SP performed very well. One for the future.

[Smyg]

How well?

[Jolly Red Giant]

The Socialist Party candidate Ruth Coppinger came third on the first count with 7542 votes (21.1%) 200 votes behind FF in second place - the LP were first with 8665.

After the fourth count
Nulty LP was 3000 ahead
McGuinness FF was 18 votes ahead of Coppinger SP

The Socialist Party requested a recount and duing a recheck of the votes discrepancies were found that resulted in FF and SP tied level for votes with 9873.

During the recheck it became clear that neither FF or SP would catch the LP candidate (FF would lose by 6000 - SP would lose by 3500). The SP withdrew its request for a full recount and Ruth Coppinger was eliminated because FF has the higher first preference.

Throughout the count it was clear that the only party that had a chance of beating the LP was the Socialist Party. It would have required a further swing of about 1.5% from the LP to the SP for Coppinger to win.

FF have been boasting about coming second despite the fact that they no have no parliamentary seat in Dublin and previously had two of the four seats in Dublin West.

The Socialist Party is satisfied with its performance. Many commentators were dismissing the Socialist Party's chances on the basis that the vote in this constituency was a personal vote for Joe Higgins rather than a SP vote. This by-election proves that this is not the case and that there is a SP vote in the constituency that will easily retain the existing seat in Dublin West and set the platform for to target a second. The Socialist Party will continue to campaign against austerity and the €4billion in cuts due in the budget in a month. We will also continue to work to build the ULA in an effort to build a new mass left-wing party.

[Crux]

Damn shame to get eliminated before FF on a technicality though.

[Jolly Red Giant]

Socialist Party analysis of by-election result

http://www.socialistparty.net/component/content/article/63-elections/808-labour-had-a-good-day-but-its-down-hill-from-here

[RNL]

The Socialist Party aren't parliamentary socialists, they're revolutionary socialists who use elections as a platform to advocate socialism on doorsteps, in the papers, on national tv and who use their positions on local councils and in parliament to win concessions for workers and oppose the bankruptcy of the government and capitalism as a whole.


Now elected socialist politicians of the calibre of Joe Higgins and Clare Daly, and if elected Ruth Coppinger do have a programme to eradicate the social ills of society and use the Dail and other parliamentary institutions to propagate the socialist ideas.

Is this really true though? What I hear from Joe Higgins and the other ULA TDs is not any kind of marxist socialism, but instead some kind of Keynesian bourgeois nationalist program to rescue Irish capitalism for the 'benefit' of the Irish working class.

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From one Higgins to another, the rhetoric is hardly any different to that of our new elected president... also a 'socialist' (as was Bertie Ahern, in his own mind).

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[Jolly Red Giant]

Is this really true though? What I hear from Joe Higgins and the other ULA TDs is not any kind of marxist socialism, but instead some kind of Keynesian bourgeois nationalist program to rescue Irish capitalism for the 'benefit' of the Irish working class.
Yea - right - and utter nonsense

Anyone can take a video and use it to back up a stupid point - of course you didn't make clear that the LP video was from their period in opposition - the LP in power can be seen from the response of Gilmore to Joe Higgins.

Most annoying is the suggestion that Joe Higgins advocates a 'bourgeois nationalist programme' - Joe Higgins and every other Socialist Party representative outlines the fact that there is no solution to the crisis on the basis of nationalism or national borders and that the building of a mass left-wing movement on a Europe-wide basis is necessary to defeat the austerity of the EU/ECB/IMF.

Joe Higgins and other Socialist Party representatives consistantly put forward a socialist programme of dealing with the crisis - outlining opposition to austerity, arguing for a redistribution wealth, investment in public works to create employment etc. - and they go further outlining that there is no solution on the basis of capitalism, calling for the controlling sectors of the economy to be brought into democratic public ownership and the establishment of a democratically socialist planned economy.

The important point from the Dublin West by-election is the fact that, for the first time since members of the Socialist Party began standing in elections in 1991, there was an openness among a section of the working class to the idea that capitalism is in crisis, that a solution to the crisis is not possible under capitalism and and openness to the idea of an alternative type of economic system based on workers democracy is necessary. Now I am not going to argue that a revolutionary situation is around the corner - but for the first time in my 30 years of political activity this is a major step forward. And it is and has been based, among other things, on the consistant propaganda work carried out by Socialist Party representatives using elected positions in the Parliament and local councils.

EDIT: an example of Joe Higgins speaking in the Dail -

"....Capitalism and the financial market system are utter chaotic failures and therefore revolutionary changes in the financial system are needed. We need a socialist alternative. We need these major institutions to be brought into public ownership under democratic control and accountability. They should then be directed to act for the common good, for major public investment in infrastructure, for example, services and the like, that would be capable of recreating the crashed economies of the European periphery and many other countries in the EU that are suffering from crises to one degree or another.

We will see increasing mobilisation of the working people of Europe, pensioners, poor and youth over the next short few years in opposition to a system that is drowning them in its crisis . If we had a trade union leadership in Europe or this country that was worth anything, it certainly would not have gone this far. Working people need to reclaim their trade unions and use them as fighting organisations. They will have no option but to do that over the next few years because otherwise the situation will evolve from this crisis to another that is worse."