When will we have Communism?

[Nox]

This is pretty much a guesstimate thread, just guess/estimate when you think we will have Communism by, and post what you think and why :)

I think we will have Communism by the year 2200. I'm not really sure why but I think capitalism is nearing the point of collapse, but support for Communism is still relatively low.

Fire away :)

[Susurrus]

Well, do you mean global communism or just communism anywhere? Because one could argue that some places on earth are communist.

[Tim Cornelis]

Look around you, what do you see? How much steel and oil-related products (e.g. plastic) do you see? My guess is 50 to 70% of goods is made from steel and/or oil in some way.

When are communist revolutions most likely? In times of great economic turmoil.

When will steel resources be depleted? 2052
When will oil resources be depleted? 2060

Maybe if I'm lucky I will see the beginning of the communist revolution somewhere in the 2050s (oil resources are depleted by 2060, but are extremely scarce already in 2045).

[Nox]

Well, do you mean global communism or just communism anywhere? Because one could argue that some places on earth are communist.

Good point. Global Communism.

[Weezer]

We don't know. But one thing I would to point out:

Some people try to imagine a stateless society as if it was to happen tomorrow. Communism will probably not happen for at least 100 years, that's my guess. We'll have so much more new technology to help us build communism when it finally does happen. It's impossible to imagine communism in present-day conditions, as it won't be happening anytime soon, I wouldn't worry about it.

[Conscript]

I think communism will have a resurgence in some parts of the world, but global communism is a long way off.

[o well this is ok I guess]

When you make it.

[Nox]

We don't know. But one thing I would to point out:

Some people try to imagine a stateless society as if it was to happen tomorrow. Communism will probably not happen for at least 100 years, that's my guess. We'll have so much more new technology to help us build communism when it finally does happen. It's impossible to imagine communism in present-day conditions, as it won't be happening anytime soon, I wouldn't worry about it.

Yes, this isn't serious by any means, just a 'guessing game' of sorts

[Manic Impressive]

Well, do you mean global communism or just communism anywhere? Because one could argue that some places on earth are communist.
If someone argued that I would question their understanding of communism.

To answer the OP I'm definitely an optimist and I think it could happen this century. The way the current crisis is going and with the western nations being forced to accept worse living conditions who knows it could happen within the next 50 years. But I wouldn't bet on it.

[Nox]

If someone argued that I would question their understanding of communism.

To answer the OP I'm definitely an optimist and I think it could happen this century. The way the current crisis is going and with the western nations being forced to accept worse living conditions who knows it could happen within the next 50 years. But I wouldn't bet on it.

I assumed he meant small communes that are dotted around here and there, not actual countries :)

[Revy]

I guess that's what we can hope for, huh? Communism in two centuries. That's what state capitalist regimes tell the people to get them complacent with the reformist failure of a "revolution" that supposedly lasts many generations under the rule of a bureaucracy. Because supposedly, state capitalism is "socialism" and we must wait for the "communism", when in reality the regime falls and reverts back to free market capitalism.

[punisa]

If we think about limits to capitalism and how it MUST (it's essentially core of the very system) expand on a yearly basis, then I'd say communism is in very near future.
Only thing I can see as the roadblock is the rise of fascism which will have only one purpose - prolong the era of the rich elite for at least few more years.
But this will also fail very soon since there simply won't be means to feed the fascists.

People are quite ignorant of socialism and communism, but I see this changing very rapidly once the reality kicks in.

To put it simple - why do many people still not consider socialism as an option? Because they struggle, loose houses and jobs, BUT they see that their neighbor still has all that *fancy* stuff. This gives them false hope that they can eventually climb back and reclaim a bit of the middle class wet dream.
This still occurs, but any day know the better-off neighbor will dumped into the same hell the majority of us are already surviving in.
This is when false hopes will cease to exists and working class will swiftly look for an alternative - and we'll be ready to give it to them.

But not to neglect the OP I'll give my forecast as well - This is 2015 scenario :)

[Kenco Smooth]

A fair few people in here seem to be making the mistake of presuming a catastrophic collapse of capitalism will inevitably result in global communism. Whilst the negative aspect of dismantling current property relations is an essential part of moving to a socialist system it would need to be accompanied by one of the largest and most difficult periods of positive social construction in human history. This won't simply be enabled by the collapse of capitalism.

If global capitalism does collapse in the 2050s-60s I'd put a huge amount of money on the outcome not looking anything like communism. Then again a huge amount can change in half a century so who knows.

[Zav]

We will have it whenever we get off our asses and claim it, or we could just wait a few centuries/millennia.

[CHE with an AK]

My Random (severly condensed) Timeline of Guesstimations

disclaimer: All of this could be wrong

2035 - China (which now includes all of Korea and Japan), the U.S (which now includes Canada)., & the E.U. (then including Russia & Australia) create a tri-polar world with spheres of influence around each other's hemisphere/area. This however gets challenged by an alliance of a unified South America led by Brazil and a unified Middle East led by Saudi Arabian Super State.

2050 - Global war (WW3) breaks out between the 2 aforementioned sides with the victorious "tri-polar alliance" reverting back to an almost fascist and colonial stance against Latin America & the Middle East. Africa is out of picture, as China gets control of most of Africa.

2070 - Lack of resources such as oil and fresh drinking water lead to a split in the "tri-polar alliance" with the Anglo-EU-American side taking on China which now controls Africa and most of S. E Asia & Japan. However, since Russia has most of the world's remaining fresh water, China wants access to it. Call this WW4 which goes nuclear with both sides using atomic weapons on 15-20 of the largest cities of each side. The only thing that limits their use is fear of making all of earth unlivable even for the victor. WW4 lasts about 15-20 years, results in the death of 50-70 % of the world's population through famine, and war.

2090 - A world nearly in ruins emerges with no WW4 victor - and a truce between the two sides. Nations now fractures into thousands of smaller states with communal type governments and an almost primitive communism is established.

2100 - World is now divided into millions of smaller communities, most with some sort of communal ownership and system, but lack of industrialization from war means that labor is still divided. However, communism sees a resurgence from the ruins and there is a large movement to establish global communism.

2110-2125 - a 15 year long global struggle breaks out to establish global communism and root at the last of capitalism, feudal lords, oligarchies, etc.

By 2150 – rebuilt from the conflict, there is as close to a communist globe as there ever will be. However, most of earth is depleted - and space colonization is considered.

2250 - Communism also reaches colonies on the Moon and Mars.

[Savage]

next tuesday

[Matty_UK]

I think some people are erring on the side of caution a bit too much. Perhaps not communism per se, but I actually think we'll have some sort of planned economy in the not too distant future, certainly within our lifetimes. (speaking as someone in his early 20s)

There is little potential for economic growth in capitalism today. Remember that a big motor for economic growth in the 20th century was the emergence of consumer goods for a mass market. Cars, TVs, microwaves, and so on and so on... these new industries could absorb huge reserves of labour, which in turn meant higher wages, which in turn could fuel consumer spending. Advances in production have meant these sort of industries require far less labour to produce their commodities - for example, more than 50% of the world's microwaves are now produced in one single factory in China. New technologies today are inherently less labour intensive and are unable to provide the same rate of employment that their predescessors did. And maintaining growth via creation of new markets abroad is problematic - already almost everywhere is open to the world market but actually, all that acheives is to block the development of indigenous industries in, for example, Africa.

Over the next decade I am sorry to say things are going to get progressively worse. The dismantling of the public sector will create mass unemployment with little in the way of a safety net, which will not only cause an unprecedented recession in the private sector as demand plummets but also downward pressure on wages for those still employed, at a time when speculation on commodity futures is driving the cost of foodstuffs and energy through the roof. The impression I get of the public mood (in the UK at least, can't say for anywhere else) is that most people are aware that they have been screwed over completely, that the situation is very bad and isn't going to get better without some drastic change, but they are still clinging on to the possibility that it might just all blow over soon, a possibility that looks fainter by the day. One more major shock and what remains of the bourgeoisie's fragile ability to rule by consent could disappear virtually overnight. What we saw in London last night - flashmob riots, lootings - I suspect are a sign of things to come in the short term, once the welfare state is gone and unemployment skyrockets.

It is in the sort of situation where the surplus population must become insurgent to make a living and the state must rule exclusively by force that revolutionary political ideas will develop rapidly.

I'm not making any predictions on when communism will win, and it might not even go by the name communism, but in all honesty I can see the emergence of some sort of powerful revolutionary movement within 10 years.

[Matty_UK]

A fair few people in here seem to be making the mistake of presuming a catastrophic collapse of capitalism will inevitably result in global communism. Whilst the negative aspect of dismantling current property relations is an essential part of moving to a socialist system it would need to be accompanied by one of the largest and most difficult periods of positive social construction in human history. This won't simply be enabled by the collapse of capitalism.

If global capitalism does collapse in the 2050s-60s I'd put a huge amount of money on the outcome not looking anything like communism. Then again a huge amount can change in half a century so who knows.

You're right that a collapse of global capitalism won't immediately move us towards global communism, but I'd say it's a necessary prerequisite.

And your guess that global capitalism may collapse in the 2050s-60s is way too far in the future. It's already in the process of collapse and I can't conceive of any scenarios that will allow it to ever return to it's pre-2008 levels of health. There will be a second financial collapse sooner rather than later, and this time with no money to bail the financial system out.

[hatzel]

And your guess that global capitalism may collapse in the 2050s-60s is way too far in the future. It's already in the process of collapse

I will have a hat the size of the Sun made and then eat my hat if global capitalism magically collapses of its own accord within 40 years. You can hold me to that, by the way...

But keep on dreamin' anyway :)

[Matty_UK]

I will have a hat the size of the Sun made and then eat my hat if global capitalism magically collapses of its own accord within 40 years. You can hold me to that, by the way...

But keep on dreamin' anyway :)

Well, it won't collapse of it's own accord - it will still function at some level but with exceptionally high unemployment rates, lower wages and generally worse conditions, and even greater inequality. By talking about it collapsing I don't mean it'll suddenly disappear and automatically replace itself with a socialist society, only that it will no longer be able to sustain anything like the standard of living we've become accustomed to.

But really, all these people saying we'll have a revolution in maybe 2200... that is just far too pessimistic. Not having a go or anything, but putting it on such a distant timeline suggests to me a certain psychological distance from their espoused revolutionary goals, viewing communism on some level as something sublime and not realistically attainable whilst still promoting its ideas. Or perhaps it's just caution and not wanting to be seen as getting carried away.

Whatever it is, I think it shows a lack of appreciation for how severe and unprecedented the current crisis is, and how poor the prospects for recovery are for the foreseeable future.

This article explains the historic nature of the crisis more clearly than most, although it's still a bit wordy, I recommend a read of it.

http://endnotes.org.uk/articles/1

[ColonelCossack]

Who knows?

But it definitely will.

But we, and the proletariat, still need to make it happen.

[Catma]

If we think about limits to capitalism and how it MUST (it's essentially core of the very system) expand on a yearly basis, then I'd say communism is in very near future.
Only thing I can see as the roadblock is the rise of fascism which will have only one purpose - prolong the era of the rich elite for at least few more years.
But this will also fail very soon since there simply won't be means to feed the fascists.

I'd say we've gotten almost no nearer to communism in the last 100 years. Capitalism indeed needs to grow continually. One way it does this is by periodically destroying capital and human lives.

If we reach a serious crisis point with capitalism still in control of major portions of the world, the more likely result than a communist society is a world war. Any capitalist/fascist countries that make it out on the other side of the war will have ample room for growth, and thus capability to reward and feed their supporters.

There are always windows of opportunity for communism to grow, but the capitalists continue to hold far more power and are organized against us. It's their game to lose, really.

[Dr Mindbender]

Theres no guarantee it will ever come. Theres the very strong possibility that man will become extinct in a capitalist world.

I've certainly accepted it aint gonna happen as long as i draw breath.

[/pessimism]





By 2150 – rebuilt from the conflict, there is as close to a communist globe as there ever will be. However, most of earth is depleted - and space colonization is considered.
2250 - Communism also reaches colonies on the Moon and Mars.

oh bless, you are adorable. I could just eat you up.

[DarkPast]

When a large majority of the working class awakens and realises that capitalism goes against it's own interests, then we will have communism. Without that, there can be no revolutions - only coups.

Do not think that a fall of global capitalism alone will result in the rise of world communism.
Unfortunately, when things get tough, the ruling classes will try to find scapegoats for the problems they caused: ethnic or racial minorities, foreign countries, "traitors" etc.
It could just as easily lead to neo-feudalism, the rise of fascism or a world war between imperialistic powers.

[gendoikari]

This is pretty much a guesstimate thread, just guess/estimate when you think we will have Communism by, and post what you think and why :)

I think we will have Communism by the year 2200. I'm not really sure why but I think capitalism is nearing the point of collapse, but support for Communism is still relatively low.

Fire away :)

We can have socialism any time between now and communism. But TRUE communism comes with the robtacized workforce. Marx and his conteporaries saw a day when the average human would no longer be needed to work, in fact would be impractical to try and put them to work. They knew the course of technology would lead to that end eventually. However with capitalism when that level of robotization comes around the capitalists will take advatage of it, and at that point we will face a crossroads in human history.

[Q]

Yes, this isn't serious by any means, just a 'guessing game' of sorts

21st of December 2012.

[gendoikari]

21st of December 2012.

lol. according to some tea baggers, yes.

[CHE with an AK]

When will we have Communism?



Hopefully soon, because the answer has been there all along ...


http://i83.photobucket.com/albums/j318/Tredcrow/2011/22549_246132789868_246120609868_3090046_295385_n.j pg
"Communism is the riddle of history solved,
and it knows itself to be this solution."


- Karl Marx, 1844

[Comrade Marxist Bro]

A watched pot never boils.

[Zav]

A watched pot never boils.
But if we don't watch it, the Fascists will.