End of European Union?

[punisa]

In the wake of US credit downgrading Europe is in panic and many speculate on what will happen next.

This show was aired yesterday on Al-Jazeera and its worth a watch:
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Basically, as some suggest, if Italy goes bust it will not be possible to simply remove it from the EU as it is the Europe's 3rd largest economy.
This would ultimately mean that the European project is finished and over.

Would you agree that we might be seeing such a scenario?

What is particularly interesting to me is what will actually happen to many Balkan nations who completely devoted their political campaigns to joining EU.
This is especially dramatic in case of my home country Croatia.
Croatia spent more then 10 years fulfilling the demands for reforms so it could join EU. It has finally completed all these requirements and is expected to become a full member in 2012 or 2013.
But as situation develops, will this actually take place?
The country is in deep economical crisis and unemployment is rising (youth unemployment is over 40%) while it also has the largest foreign debt among all Balkan nations.

[jake williams]

Basically, as some suggest, if Italy goes bust it will not be possible to simply remove it from the EU as it is the Europe's 3rd largest economy.
This would ultimately mean that the European project is finished and over.

Would you agree that we might be seeing such a scenario?
Well, to be specific, Italy is the euro's third-largest economy, not Europe's (behind Germany, France and Britain).

Anyway, I wouldn't rule out a collapse of Italy of some sort for a lot of reasons, but although it would be a crisis for Europe, I don't know that it would be the end of the EU. It's not inconceivable, but it would take a lot. The major factions of the bourgeoisie in Europe are basically committed to the EU, whether they all admit it or not.

[punisa]

Well, to be specific, Italy is the euro's third-largest economy, not Europe's (behind Germany, France and Britain).
Yes, you are correct.



Anyway, I wouldn't rule out a collapse of Italy of some sort for a lot of reasons, but although it would be a crisis for Europe, I don't know that it would be the end of the EU. It's not inconceivable, but it would take a lot. The major factions of the bourgeoisie in Europe are basically committed to the EU, whether they all admit it or not.

Indeed there are large sections of bourgeoisie depending on EU, but maybe it would be the end of EU as we know it.
It could lead to removing smaller economies such as Portugal, Greece or even Bulgaria and Slovakia and live on as a super-capitalist union of several strong powers.

BTW, how come Germany remains so strong? Basically the idea is that even Italy could be heading towards bankruptcy, BUT if Germans decides so they could easily bail them out?
How did Germany manage to acquire such large cash reserves?