status on the Asian Maoists

[RedMarxist]

what is the current status of the Asian Maoists? good? bad? how 'safe' are the revolutions, as in chances of them not being defeated?

Furthermore, additional data on following national revolutions would be appreciated:

Philippines

India

Nepal(well, post revolution I mean)

[Who?]

what is the current status of the Asian Maoists? good? bad? how 'safe' are the revolutions, as in chances of them not being defeated?

Furthermore, additional data on following national revolutions would be appreciated:

...

The PPWs are doing fairly well, the PPW in India has increased in intensity consderably over the past few years and the Indian government's counter-insurgency operation (Operation Green Hunt) has completely failed to quell the Maoist uprising. The Maoists have tens of thousdands of armed cadre willing to wage war against the Indian state and many more militia members and supporters (I don't think it would be an exaggeration to say the Maoists have MILLIONS of supporters).

The Phillipines is a different story, the CPP is apparently increasing in popularity but they have not yet attained the same numbers they had in the 1980's. They are still a threat to the state and, like many other struggles, the PPW is apparently intesifying.

Nepal is tricky, the UCPN(M) is the largest party in the Nepalese Constituent Assembly (and are part of the ruling coalition) however they have failed to seize state power (yet). There is currently a fair amount of internal struggle within the party itself regarding the integration of the PLA into the Nepalese military. But things appear to be shifting in favor of the hardliners, who I believe have the correct line. The revolutionary process is a long and arduous one.

Outside of Asia the Shining Path is also rumored to have a few thousand militants left and have recently released a document. You can read it here (http://www.redsun.org/pcp_doc/pcp_201105_En.htm). Still, they are but a shadow of their former selves.

[RedMarxist]

arent the hardliners the ones who want a second revolution or something(my memory is fuzzy)? If so, how would they hope to achieve this? and weren't there bases of power removed in the Nepalese 2006 peace agreement, thus ending the PLA as a threat? what makes you so sure the hardliners will triumph?

and concerning the Filipino Revolution, Can the NPA win? I understand the US of Reactionary A has been intervening, and I am not sure of their chances of success in driving out American troops. And even if the revolution succeeds, would it be legal for America to invade the country to restore the former leaders? and what of China and their designs for the Philippines?

[Sixiang]

and concerning the Filipino Revolution, Can the NPA win? I understand the US of Reactionary A has been intervening, and I am not sure of their chances of success in driving out American troops. And even if the revolution succeeds, would it be legal for America to invade the country to restore the former leaders? and what of China and their designs for the Philippines?

I don't think the American government really gives a fuck if their military tactics are legal or not. I really don't think that the American military would invade the Philippines if a communist revolution were successful there, as it's already tangled in the middle east at the moment. However, they certainly would resort to their same old cold war tactics of espionage and making deals in foreign relations with other capitalist nations and the reactionaries in the Philippines to try to combat the revolution without a full scale invasion.

[RedMarxist]

well, OK with that established, do you guys honestly think that democracy, well not liberal democracy but whatever, could flourish post Philippine/Indian Revolution? Would the ML parties there become dictatorships, or could some level of democracy be maintained?


I really don't think the US would give a shit about a communist Philippines or India or even Nepal. I mean, how would all 3 nations becoming communist affect the US economically or militarily?

Does China support the Rebels in the Philippines. If NOT, why so?

[Tommy4ever]

well, OK with that established, do you guys honestly think that democracy, well not liberal democracy but whatever, could flourish post Philippine/Indian Revolution? Would the ML parties there become dictatorships, or could some level of democracy be maintained?


I really don't think the US would give a shit about a communist Philippines or India or even Nepal. I mean, how would all 3 nations becoming communist affect the US economically or militarily?

Does China support the Rebels in the Philippines. If NOT, why so?

In the Philippines a successful Maoist Revolution is impossible. In India it is unlikely to spread beyond the Red Corridor in the East of the country - although attempts have been made to reach out beyond the peasantry to the urban proletariat.

Obviously, China doesn't actively support these groups. Why would it?

As for Nepal, the revolution there is staggering as reformist and revolutionary elements within the Maoist party battle it out for control of the party. It doesn't look promising that the social revolution in Nepal will continue, but we will see. Here China and India might be more willing to stare angrily at eachother over a bit of influence in this country.

And yes, of course the US would do something about a successful socialist (even Maoist) revolution anywhere. They would channel funds into opposition groups, support any revolt and may well invade. If the Maoists, somehow, took power in India sometime in the future the reverberations across the world would be tremendous.

Oh yeah, the Maoists (if victorius) would likely establish a party dictatorship and if, like in Nepal, fought to a standstill they would probably just take part in a bourgeios parliament and turn towards reformism - its the Maoist way.

[RedMarxist]

In the Philippines a successful Maoist Revolution is impossible. In India it is unlikely to spread beyond the Red Corridor in the East of the country - although attempts have been made to reach out beyond the peasantry to the urban proletariat.

Obviously, China doesn't actively support these groups. Why would it?

As for Nepal, the revolution there is staggering as reformist and revolutionary elements within the Maoist party battle it out for control of the party. It doesn't look promising that the social revolution in Nepal will continue, but we will see. Here China and India might be more willing to stare angrily at eachother over a bit of influence in this country.

And yes, of course the US would do something about a successful socialist (even Maoist) revolution anywhere. They would channel funds into opposition groups, support any revolt and may well invade. If the Maoists, somehow, took power in India sometime in the future the reverberations across the world would be tremendous.

Oh yeah, the Maoists (if victorius) would likely establish a party dictatorship and if, like in Nepal, fought to a standstill they would probably just take part in a bourgeios parliament and turn towards reformism - its the Maoist way.

what makes you think the NPA has no chance? Last time I checked they were doing pretty well and advancing(Source: the news + blogs)

Unlikely that the Naxals will spread beyond the red corridor? last LAST time I checked Operation Green Hunt had failed and the Naxals were preparing to spread their control to SOUTHERN INDIA. And the level of support/militia/forces they have makes it likely it will spread further north.

as for Nepal, I could care less. Its a small and isolated nations that just threw off its monarchy. Why must it become communist? And it is not IMPOSSIBLE to become communist, well right now it is. Last time I checked the PLA will, in the integration process(if it goes ahead) will have commanding positions in the NA and retain their weapons for right now. And even if all hope is lost for the Maoists, is not getting rid of a monarchy a good thing, combined with liberal(damn!) democracy also a good thing, if more the moment?

everyone is so cynical on this forum. USA will invade everyone who shirks the status quo. Since when is it legal to invade a nation with no justification just for having a revolution? and don't pull a Russian Civil War on me(As I do believe in modern times you need a GOOD REASON to invade a nation post revolution. the 20's were different.)

as for party dictatorships, what makes you so sure this will happen? can you backup this up with legitimate reasons?

[RedMarxist]

is THIS article not a good sign (from revolutionary front lines):

"MUNEEZA NAQVI, THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

NEW DELHI, July 06, 2011 – India’s Supreme Court has told the government of an eastern state to disband a militia being used to fight Maoist rebels, a move that was hailed Wednesday by rights activists. The court’s order to the government of Chhattisgarh on Tuesday said the arming of mostly poor tribesmen was unconstitutional.
“It’s really a significant judgment. The judgment upholds constitutional principles,” said Nandini Sundar, a sociologist and rights activist who was one of the people who petitioned the court.
State officials were not immediately available for comment Wednesday.
They have previously denied supporting the Salwa Judum militia and called it an independent movement that sprang up in response to atrocities committed by Maoist rebels. Rights groups deny that claim and say the vigilante group has, with the help of government forces, carried out brutal attacks that have displaced tens of thousands of people in the region in an attempt to crush the communist uprising.The Supreme Court also ordered the state government to stop recruiting and arming tribes people as special police officers.
Sundar said the court’s decision would have major repercussions across India and force other states battling Maoist rebels to reassess their strategies.
“You cannot be expedient and opportunistic in fighting an insurgency,” she said.
Federal Home Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said the government would study the court order to assess its impact on anti-Maoist operations in the country.
The rebels, known as Naxalites, have been fighting to create a communist state since 1967 and are active in several states. But Chhattisgarh, one of India’s poorest states, is the heartland of their struggle.
The rebels’ rallying cry of land and jobs for the poor resonates deeply with the population, many of them from India’s impoverished indigenous peoples and resentful of authorities who mine the region’s rich natural resources with little benefit to local residents.
The government has called the Maoists the country’s most serious internal security threat and in 2010 announced “Operation Green Hunt,” a push to flush out the rebels from their forest hide-outs."



India...is finished.

[Tommy4ever]

what makes you think the NPA has no chance? Last time I checked they were doing pretty well and advancing(Source: the news + blogs)

Unlikely that the Naxals will spread beyond the red corridor? last LAST time I checked Operation Green Hunt had failed and the Naxals were preparing to spread their control to SOUTHERN INDIA. And the level of support/militia/forces they have makes it likely it will spread further north.

as for Nepal, I could care less. Its a small and isolated nations that just threw off its monarchy. Why must it become communist? And it is not IMPOSSIBLE to become communist, well right now it is. Last time I checked the PLA will, in the integration process(if it goes ahead) will have commanding positions in the NA and retain their weapons for right now. And even if all hope is lost for the Maoists, is not getting rid of a monarchy a good thing, combined with liberal(damn!) democracy also a good thing, if more the moment?

everyone is so cynical on this forum. USA will invade everyone who shirks the status quo. Since when is it legal to invade a nation with no justification just for having a revolution? and don't pull a Russian Civil War on me(As I do believe in modern times you need a GOOD REASON to invade a nation post revolution. the 20's were different.)

as for party dictatorships, what makes you so sure this will happen? can you backup this up with legitimate reasons?

The Phillipino Maoists seem to be more like remnants of a past age and have been in decline for some time. They won't be overthrowing the government any time soon. The Islamists are probably a greater threat.

Recent government attempts to destroy the Naxals did indeed fail - but after such an assault it is unlikely that these guys will be in any state to make large scale advances. The thing about the Naxals is they tend to be pretty regional - ie the peasants defend their own area from the government and their hired thugs rather than go on grand advances. If the Naxal movement is indeed expanding into Southern India, then it will likely be through encouraging local cells of revolutionaries. The Naxal movement is very powerful and should be watched, but it won't be overthrowing the Indian government any time soon ... (seeing a trend here?)

Why don't you care about Nepal? Nepal is currently the most important experiment of Maoist politics on earth. Yeah the overthrow of the King was a good thing, but if the country reverts to capitalism then that would be a pretty bad blow. And if you aren't paying attention, the Maoists are not doing too well at the moment.

We're not cynical, we just know our history. Whilst Nepal is less important a revolution in Phillipines or India, however unlikely, would not just be accepted by America. The government would almost certainly not be recognised by most of the Western World and would be cut off from trade. America need not actually invade the country (although don't think for a second that it needs justification *cough* Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Vietnam *cough*, more likely would be a CIA backed coup (how many dozens of those have we seen against vaguely left wing governments?), funding for opposition etc.

[RedMarxist]

all good points but I still see the +possibility+ of the Filipino/Indian revolutions succeeding. It is possible, otherwise why try? and now with the SPO's(the Indian Paramilitary forces) made illegal, and with a ton of people supporting the Maoists, how is it IMPOSSIBLE for the Indian Maoists to win? The NPA dated? there not anymore dated then the Naxals. And I understand they've also got plenty of support as well, so WHY can't they win either? IT. IS. POSSIBLE.

As for Nepal I care, its just I don't see why such a small seemingly insignificant nation MUST become socialist, esp. seeing how it would be even more cut off then the Philippines post-revolution.

And what makes you think the CIA is some magical fore that can overthrow nations at will.? Sure America will see the "new" India as illegitimate and most likely protect wealthy exiles, but beyond that what can America do besides refusing to trade? and, if India becomes socialist then Nepal will surely follow. Lets not forget the boost to the NPA's morale this would cause. And lets remember the revolutionary situation in Greece, and the falling apart of the Eurozone. Once Greece goes the Eurozone and possibly the EU goes. Capitalism may well be finished in our lifetime.

if it can become socialist, how would that happen. Its quite apparent that militarily it is impossible. So what can they do to create a socialist state? I hear some of the MLM party members have a solution, or claim to. the ones who are against party integration

I thought this comment by a user from Kasama was interesting:


Jaljala said

July 9, 2011 at 5:38 pm (http://southasiarev.wordpress.com/2011/07/02/biplap-against-conspiracies-to-dissolve-the-peoples-army/#comment-5919) "Dear comrades, Lalsalam !
I want to mention here that UCPN(Maoist)Party and its whole leaders and cadres are not ready to dissolve the People’s Liberation Army, Nepal. But some newspapers and websites are writing intentionally or without understanding the reality that Com. Prachanda, Chairman of UCPN(M) is disolving and disarming the PLA, Nepal. It’s absolutely wrong. In our party, we are discussing about integrating the People’s Liberation Army, Nepal. But we haven’t decided the modality of integration. The Nepal Army has presented the modality of the army integration. Our Whole Body is not ready to accept the modality of the Nepal Army. But It is saying and spreading blindly that Com. Prachanda has accepted the modality of the army integration of Nepal Army. Com. Prachanda is blaming and showing as a rightist, opportunist, rivisionist leader. It’s absolutely wrong. He is the Hero of the Nepalese Revolution.
we have to understand that Nepal Army is the main military force in Nepal after the end of the autocratic monarchy. So, we have two options to complete our revolution: one is to win over NA totally and another is to change it as PLA who will support for revolution. So, first Option is not possible right now. It may take long time. Another second option is to change the NA as PLA for Revolution. To change it, we have to co-work with it. So, we should integrate the PLA with NA. After the end of the monarchy, there is two types of force in NA. Most of the forces are patroitic and want changes and peace. Little number of forces in NA are comprador (pro-Indian) who doesn’t want eco-political changes in Nepal and peace. So, we are trying to pollarize the NA. We want to make the NA like PLA catching the aspirations and sentiments of Patriotic forces of NA and we want to neutralize and Kick out the Comprador, anti-peace, pro-Indian, anti-revolutonary forces within NA. So, we are raising the question of Army Integration.
We are saying that the integrated national Army’s will be under the leadership of PLA. And there should be group integration. our party and leadership is doing good. Our Chairman, com.Prachanda has not decided to follow the modality of army integration of NA. If we are ready to dissolve the PLA, we would hand over the weapons in past. I can confidently say that our chairman and whole leadership are not ready to disarm and dissolve the PLA, But ready to respectful integration of PLA."

[scarletghoul]

The Phillipino Maoists seem to be more like remnants of a past age and have been in decline for some time. They won't be overthrowing the government any time soon.
Not any time soon, sure, but that doesnt mean they have lost. The fact that they have been around for 40 years through thick and thin is evidence that there is more to them than the binary of instant success or failure. 20 years ago the Indian maoist movement was only a shadow of what it had been in the 60s/70s, and if we were having this discussion then you would probably have written them off. Fact is PPW does not progress in a straight line. It has to navigate through mountains and valleys etc, but it is at the same time extremely difficult to get rid of once it takes root among the masses. The CPP/NPA have huge support and it would be a serious error to think the filipino revolution is over


India...is finished.
Unfortunately this too is an error, of the same kind as the above but in the other direction: yes the naxals are successfuly defending against the state (+salwa judum etc) offensive, but the PPW is far from its conclusion and its impossible to say what the long term outcome will be. But yeah the maoists do seem to be winning at the moment. If they can successfully expell the reactionary forces from the guerilla territories and consolidate them into a proper liberated territory then the war would enter a new phase.

[scarletghoul]

And yeah the US + Indian bourgeoisie are doing all they can to prevent Nepal from going red, but there's no reason to think the people of Nepal can't defend themselves against the imperialists saboteurs.

[RedMarxist]

what strategy do the hardliner Nepal officials in the CP have to make Nepal "Go Red"? What of the PLA integration? good? bad? please refer the the Kasma comment when posting.

Allow me to rephrase that. India...Will be finished.

The court order barring the use of the Paramilitaries is a huge blow the their[the government] movement to wipe out the Maoists, and recently the Indian CP issued this: http://revolutionaryfrontlines.wordpress.com/2011/07/14/indian-maoists-the-political-struggle-with-adivasi-special-police-officers/

your right-if they can push the government from their strongholds[and with the failure of Operation Green Hunt this is becoming increasingly likely] I believe the Maoists can go north to finish off the government, which will take years and years of fighting of course.


If India "goes red", then Nepal may as well "Go Red". The NPA will get a shit ton of morale boost, and the Philippines may "go red". lets not forget Afghanistan. once the US withdraws, the Maoists can make their move and Afghanistan can "go red'(btw anyone heard about the status of the Maoists there?) Combine this with the Eurozone crashing and burning and America's economy falling apart.

Then again, I may just be overly opportunistic.

[OhYesIdid]

I haven't heard about the status of Afghan Maoism mostly because it ain't there :rolleyes:
You're being overly optimistic here. Why the hate for Nepal? both Russia and China made a radical jump in their political development, and you like those guys, no? I think India needs more time, a few more years (maybe many) before something like this could happen. There are many theories to revolution, two that I think are prevalent are 1) the sudden, urban inside-out revolt (which leads to a weak interim government that is later overthrown by radicals, but requires a prolonged period of hardship, tension) and 2) the long, rural outside-in revolt, as in Vietnam or Cuba. I may very well be wrong, but I think India is undergoing the second sort of change, and that takes time.

[RedMarxist]

I don't HATE Nepal. I was just saying that such a tiny, poor nation would be isolated, so whatever effect it becoming socialist would cause would be small, unless the Naxals can pounce on India shortly after.

If India remains reactionary, then Nepal has no chance. But if the Naxals succeed, then Nepal socialism is saved.

In my opinion, and yes I may just be optimistichere, but I really do believe, that all though it will take time as you say, the Naxals, esp. now with the banning of paramilitary forces, can win.

And, overtime, Nepal can take advantageous of a Maoist India and the CP there can take power.[well I may be pushing it now]

And concerning the Philippines: they too can win, but it will take a very long time. To my knowledge they do have a ton of support from the peasantry[who knew nations still had peasants in this day and age], and the reactionaries have suffered setback after setback. what's stopping them from seizing power(well the US but overtime hey can overcome even the US if the time is right[I MAY REALLY BE PUSHING IT!])

the point is don't be a defeatist. I find its better to believe it can work[the revolutions] then believing that all hope is lost from Day 1.

[RED DAVE]

as for Nepal, I could care less.Terrific attitude for a Marxist, especially since, a year ago, Nepal was the poster child for Maoism.


Its a small and isolated nations that just threw off its monarchy.In the absence of workers power, that's called a bourgeois revolution.


Why must it become communist?Last I heard , the role of communists was to make the communist revolution, not help the bourgeoisie establish capitalism.


And it is not IMPOSSIBLE to become communist, well right now it is.Uhh, whatever happened to the great New Democracy that the UCPN(M) was supposed to build?


Last time I checked the PLA will, in the integration process(if it goes ahead) will have commanding positions in the NA and retain their weapons for right now.You heard wrong. The PLA is being dismantled piece-meal. It no longer exists as a fighting force. In fact, it has been moribund for six years.


And even if all hope is lost for the Maoists, is not getting rid of a monarchy a good thing, combined with liberal(damn!) democracy also a good thing, if more the moment?And here we have it folks: the living heart of Maoism. A bourgeois revolution is "a good thing." The Martha Stewart version of revolution. Maybe the Maoists should change the name of their tendency to Marthists.


everyone is so cynical on this forum. USA will invade everyone who shirks the status quo. Since when is it legal to invade a nation with no justification just for having a revolution?Ask the Nicaraguans about that.


and don't pull a Russian Civil War on me(As I do believe in modern times you need a GOOD REASON to invade a nation post revolution. the 20's were different.)Ask the Iraqis about GOOD REASONS or the Afghans.


as for party dictatorships, what makes you so sure this will happen? can you backup this up with legitimate reasons?Ask the Chinese or the Russians about that. The North Koreans and a few other countries might also have something to say.

Getting back to Nepal, the UCPN(M), as predicted, has engaged in a massive sellout, entering into a bourgeois government and thus becoming part of the administration of capitalism. This is, at best, social democracy. In addition, the party has split into at least three warring factions none of which are based in the working class.

Maoism in Asia in action.

RED DAVE

[RedMarxist]

well sorry red Dave for being and inexperienced highschooler who is only just beginning to learn about Marxism.

Red Dave, anyone, what are the odds for a successful Philippine and Indian revolution?

What about a successful Greek Revolution?(off topic I know)

[Obs]

Red Dave, I thought you were Maoist, or am I wrong about that?
Hoo boy. I'm gonna save you some time: YES.

[Paulappaul]

Red Dave, anyone, what are the odds for a successful Philippine and Indian revolution?

What about a successful Greek Revolution?(off topic I know)

Close to zero for about all of them. A successful communist revolution is inherently international. Judging by the Situation at hand, I don't think Capitalism is unstable enough for it happen. But eh, who knows.

[RedMarxist]

Close to zero for about all of them. A successful communist revolution is inherently international. Judging by the Situation at hand, I don't think Capitalism is unstable enough for it happen. But eh, who knows.

Um, the Russian revolution occurred I think when capitalism was stable[abeit WWI was in full swing]. The Chinese revolution did OK. so what is your point?


By Greek Revolution I don't mean a communist one. I mean what is the chance for it succeeding(one could argue they are already in one) and the government being toppled.

I understand they've made preparations to draft a new constitution and are planning to A) Nationalize the banks and B) put means of production under worker control

[Tommy4ever]

well sorry red Dave for being and inexperienced highschooler who is only just beginning to learn about Marxism.

Red Dave, anyone, what are the odds for a successful Philippine and Indian revolution?

What about a successful Greek Revolution?(off topic I know)

Philippine Revolution - as obs said close to zero chance. The movement is more likely to finally collapse than take power in the next couple decades.

India - highly unlikely, but the movement is much stronger there than in the Philippines. Still, the chances of a full blown revolution are extremely slim.

Greece - all depends on how things develop over the next couple years. Something could happen there.

As for the Russian and Chinese Revolutions - these took place at times when the world seemed to be collapsing for the people in these countries. In Russia the fabric of society was falling in, the economy had collapsed, people were starving, they had already had an education in Revolutionary consciousness in February and an awful war was occuring that was slaughtering many thousands for apparently no reason. In China there had been endless civil war for decades, then an invasion by the Japanese who were comparable in their brutality to the Nazis whilst a mixture of petty warlords and the government of Chiang Kaishek (as inept as it was corrupt) were the only real opposition to the CPC. Very different situations.

Cuba is much more interesting for a revolution in a seemingly stable country - although in this case appearances were rather decieving.

To sum up, no big socialist revolutions are going to happen any time soon unless you bet everything in what happens in Nepal.

[Paulappaul]

Um, the Russian revolution occurred I think when capitalism was stable[abeit WWI was in full swing]. The Chinese revolution did OK. so what is your point?


By Greek Revolution I don't mean a communist one. I mean what is the chance for it succeeding(one could argue they are already in one) and the government being toppled.

I understand they've made preparations to draft a new constitution and are planning to A) Nationalize the banks and B) put means of production under worker control

The Russian Revolution wasn't a success. China isn't any Socialist paradise and has far from eliminated Capitalism as the Mode of Production. So what is your point?

If not a Communist Revolution, it is simply a change in Masters. As Luxemburg said, Socialism or Barbarism. If Nationalization and Workers' Control was Communistic, then Works Councils are Communist and there is no reason to pursue a revolution.

[RedMarxist]

in the case of the Greek revolution, wont the new 'masters' be the Greek people, who will rule through these assemblies? how is that bad? I know the KKE has done nothing so far, but can it take up the reigns of the revolution if the people take power(but then again the people are anti-party and that wuld be authoritarian at best...)

I wonder...How the rest of Europe will react.

isolation? reaction? invasion?

[Sixiang]

well, OK with that established, do you guys honestly think that democracy, well not liberal democracy but whatever, could flourish post Philippine/Indian Revolution? Would the ML parties there become dictatorships, or could some level of democracy be maintained?
An important aspect of MLMism is democracy within the party. The dictatorship of the proletariat is the dictatorship over the reactionaries. So if the Maoist parties are anti-revisionist, then they would employ learning from the people and criticism and self-criticism in the party. I think you might be confused about the meaning of the dictatorship of the proletariat and the role of the party in Marxism-Leninism.


I really don't think the US would give a shit about a communist Philippines or India or even Nepal. I mean, how would all 3 nations becoming communist affect the US economically or militarily?
The US would definitely care very much about a communist revolution happening, as it has had its nose in every single one and seeks to annihilate revolutionaries around the world.


Does China support the Rebels in the Philippines.
No.


If NOT, why so?
Because it's revisionist. It isn't interested in supporting communist revolutions.



as for Nepal, I could care less. Its a small and isolated nations that just threw off its monarchy. Why must it become communist?
Because communism is only possible on a global level. It is utter ignorance to say that the proletariat of a nation don't deserve to free themselves from the oppression of capitalism.


everyone is so cynical on this forum. USA will invade everyone who shirks the status quo.
I said that I didn't think the US would invade any of them...


Since when is it legal to invade a nation with no justification just for having a revolution?
It isn't legal. And the US government doesn't give a fuck. See Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and other places where the US military practiced bombing campaigns without legally declaring war on them.


as for party dictatorships, what makes you so sure this will happen? can you backup this up with legitimate reasons?
In order for a proletarian communist revolution to be successful it must instill dictatorship over the reactionaries. That is a fundamental part of Marxism.


all good points but I still see the +possibility+ of the Filipino/Indian revolutions succeeding. It is possible, otherwise why try? and now with the SPO's(the Indian Paramilitary forces) made illegal, and with a ton of people supporting the Maoists, how is it IMPOSSIBLE for the Indian Maoists to win? The NPA dated? there not anymore dated then the Naxals. And I understand they've also got plenty of support as well, so WHY can't they win either? IT. IS. POSSIBLE.
I don't see the point in trying to project how things will turn out in 10 or 20 or more years. It's just silly to make guesswork like that.


As for Nepal I care, its just I don't see why such a small seemingly insignificant nation MUST become socialist, esp. seeing how it would be even more cut off then the Philippines post-revolution.
Because if you want to see communism, every country must go through that socialist transition, not just the big ones you like.


And what makes you think the CIA is some magical fore that can overthrow nations at will.?
It isn't a magical force. It uses very real tactics to combat its political enemies. Eisenhower was pretty vocal about using the CIA to overthrow revolutionary movements around the world.


Sure America will see the "new" India as illegitimate and most likely protect wealthy exiles, but beyond that what can America do besides refusing to trade?
Infiltrate the country with agents and provide arms and money for reactionary groups to fight the revolutionaries. Oh, it can also influence other capitalist nations to hold sanctions against the state and thus deprive the state of any trade and massive food shortages may occur. That happened with a few countries.


Capitalism may well be finished in our lifetime.[/COLOR]
I certainly would like to see that.


Then again, I may just be overly opportunistic.

Do you mean optimistic? Opportunism isn't something to value.



And here we have it folks: the living heart of Maoism. A bourgeois revolution is "a good thing." The Martha Stewart version of revolution. Maybe the Maoists should change the name of their tendency to Marthists.
RedMarxist is not a very good representative of Maoism, as he is pretty vocal about his not being very well read on its theory and he is constantly jumping between MLM and council communism.


well sorry red Dave for being and inexperienced highschooler who is only just beginning to learn about Marxism.
There's nothing wrong with being in the learning process. But spouting out opinions without much of an understanding or research on the topic is a tad over-sighted. Don't be afraid to not take a stand on something and want to learn more about it.

[scarletghoul]

In short, OP, its impossible to predict the outcome of two guerilla wars which have both been going on since the 1960s and show no sign of ending any time soon.

[RED DAVE]

There's nothing wrong with being in the learning process. But spouting out opinions without much of an understanding or research on the topic is a tad over-sighted. Don't be afraid to not take a stand on something and want to learn more about it.Yeah, but in the process, let me apologize for being beligerent. I didn't realize that RedMarxist was a newbie to left politics.

By the way, you can take old copies of Mao's Little Red Book along on hikes. They were printed on rice paper and are really good for wiping your ass with.

RED DAVE

[RedMarxist]

i know this is off topic but can you buy Mao's little red book anywhere, such as at your local bookstore? the library? I'm assuming you can.

now back to the topic. People keep telling me the NPA's struggle is doomed to fail. I find that absurd, as from what I can understand, it has around 75 percent(the peasants) of the population allegedly supporting it. With this support, it draws forth an army. On the other hand you have the government, who of course has an army + the rich landowners to draw support from.

if all this is true, then a struggle such as this is possible to complete(IE take power from the government) It may take 10, 20, or even 30 years but it is not doomed to fail. The fact that the NPA has been around for so long and resisted the US is a testimony to their resiliency.

And as for the Naxals, well lets just say the same above also applies. Especially now since the Courts ruled it illegal to use paramilitaries(to what extent it will be enforced is debatable) Now, it may also take 10-30 years but it is possible, esp. seeing as how he Naxals have twice the support of the NPA, and is much larger a force.

and as for Nepal, I really have no idea. It seems as if "the party" has sold out its own people, yet that's not to say the hardliners can't do something about that. BTW, can someone clarify what just the hardliners plan to do?

[Paulappaul]

in the case of the Greek revolution, wont the new 'masters' be the Greek people, who will rule through these assemblies?

What Assemblies? The People are the "masters" already. The Point is not for the "people" to be masters, but for individuals to be masters of their own existence.


People keep telling me the NPA's struggle is doomed to fail. I find that absurd, as from what I can understand, it has around 75 percent(the peasants) of the population allegedly supporting it. With this support, it draws forth an army. On the other hand you have the government, who of course has an army + the rich landowners to draw support from.

Without an International Revolution it will fail. 75 percent of population being Peasants isn't too good either.

[RedMarxist]

the odds of a world revolution are ZERO, well right now. But with the collapsing of the Eurozone and a possible default in the USA then it may be not to far away after all.

[Sixiang]

Yeah, but in the process, let me apologize for being beligerent. I didn't realize that RedMarxist was a newbie to left politics.

By the way, you can take old copies of Mao's Little Red Book along on hikes. They were printed on rice paper and are really good for wiping your ass with.

RED DAVE
Heh. Good joke.


i know this is off topic but can you buy Mao's little red book anywhere, such as at your local bookstore? the library? I'm assuming you can.
Yes, you can. You may have to order it, though. I doubt it's on the shelves. I bought my copy at a bookstore.

[Queercommie Girl]

By the way, you can take old copies of Mao's Little Red Book along on hikes. They were printed on rice paper and are really good for wiping your ass with.


This almost sounds a bit borderline Orientalist/racist.

[Ocean Seal]

well, OK with that established, do you guys honestly think that democracy, well not liberal democracy but whatever, could flourish post Philippine/Indian Revolution? Would the ML parties there become dictatorships, or could some level of democracy be maintained?

Just like most socialist revolutions "some level of democracy" would be maintained.



I really don't think the US would give a shit about a communist Philippines or India or even Nepal. I mean, how would all 3 nations becoming communist affect the US economically or militarily?

What???? The United States would absolutely care if those nations became communist. US imperialism could fall apart if they lost India. Cheap labor markets are the jewel of the bourgeoisie. That's the reason that they keep all of their colonies. Without their colonies, the western corporations would have to go back home and exploit people there, which would not only ruin their profits, but it could even push forward a socialist revolution in the west.


Does China support the Rebels in the Philippines. If NOT, why so?
China has a horrible habit of not only not supporting Maoists in recent times, but of supporting their opposition. In Nepal they supported the feudalists. Why? Because they're capitalists and imperialists, just like America. They make their living exploiting the resources and labor power of Africa and nearby Asian countries.

[Paulappaul]

the odds of a world revolution are ZERO, well right now. But with the collapsing of the Eurozone and a possible default in the USA then it may be not to far away after all.

defiantly what I said to you earlier.

[mosfeld]

With the end of the fratricidal conflict between the MCC and PWG and their subsequent unification into the CPI(Maoist) in 2004, the Maoist movement in India has been making and leaps and bounds, jumping from victory to victory. I think it's ridiculous that people are so extremely pessimistic about the situation in India when this is by far the largest revolutionary communist movement in the world today conducting armed struggle with the support of millions.

[RedMarxist]

thats what I've been saying all along. India is bound to fall to the Maoists-it will only be a matter of time

Combine that with Europe and America[well we'll see] collapsing and socialism will become yet again attractive.

[RED DAVE]

By the way, you can take old copies of Mao's Little Red Book along on hikes. They were printed on rice paper and are really good for wiping your ass with.
This almost sounds a bit borderline Orientalist/racist.Rice paper is soft. This is actually something we did during the Sixties.

Those were the days my friend.//We thought they'd never end. :D

LITTLE RED BOOK ONLINE (http://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/works/red-book/)

RED DAVE

[Queercommie Girl]

^

Criticise Maoism if you want, but frankly leave Asian cultural references out of it. The fact that Maoism may be flawed etc. has got nothing to do with Chinese or Asian culture.

[RedMarxist]

I'll say it again: why are people on this forum so bleak, for lack of a better word.

Oh-the Filipino revolution is doomed

the Naxal revolution is doomed

etc.

despite the FACTS that point to the opposite. Like I said, the NPA revolution is allegedly advancing(oh and by the way has a huge chunk of the poor population at its disposal), and with the shit ton of support from the peasantry, I see not why it is DOOMED to fail.

India. Massive support in the cities and elsewhere combined with a banning of paramilitary forces makes me wonder why everyone is so bleak.

I got comments like: oh well, the cia will simply destroy the revolution or counter revolutionaries will trump the revolutionary opposition.

WTF.

In the CIA's dreams! if the revolution succeeds(which it can and most likely will in time) it will no doubt enjoy popularity and rejuvenate communist revolution, at least in the third world

The Indian government is desperate-hence why they attack civil liberties. They fail to win the people's hearts and minds, yet the naxals haven't.

dont know how true(or stupid) this is but...check this article out.

http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report_naxals-are-coming-to-get-your-children-warns-rr-patil_1563999

the evil naxals are coming to eat your children! :lol:

the government of India is fucked.