Log in

View Full Version : Ronald Wright's "A Short History of Progress"



RNL
10th July 2011, 20:51
I just finished listening to this series of lectures, based on his book of the same name (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Short-History-Progress-Ronald-Wright/dp/1841958301/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1310327114&sr=8-1), and found them really interesting (and pretty depressing).

He presents a theory of what he calls 'progress traps', whereby, he argues, societies tend to 'fall victim to their own cleverness'. Progress in a particular area continues until a point is reached at which it becomes a problem, dilemma, danger, etc. One such example is the progression from the invention of gunpowder to the invention of the nuclear bomb. As he puts it, "a small bang can be useful, a bigger bang can end the world." His historical/archaeological analysis of the fall of the Sumerians, Maya, Aztecs, Romans, the Easter Islanders, etc, and the 'progress traps' they built for themselves, tends to focus on 'progress' in hunting that eventually led to the extinction of the prey, and 'progress' in agriculture that eventually left the land barren.

"Palaeolithic hunters who learnt how to kill two mammoths instead of one had made progress. Those who learnt how to kill 200 - by driving a whole herd over a cliff - had made too much. Many of the great ruins that grace the deserts and jungles of the earth are monuments to progress traps, the headstones of civilisations which fell victim to their own success. The twentieth-century's runaway growth has placed a murderous burden on the planet. "A Short History of Progress" argues that this modern predicament is as old as civilisation. Only by understanding the patterns of progress and disaster that humanity has repeated since the Stone Age can we recognise the inherent dangers, and, with luck, and wisdom, shape its outcome."

A few criticisms upon finishing the last lecture. It's amazing from an anthropological/archaeological point of view, but the left-liberal political content seems incoherent/naive to me. Saying, on the one hand, that we need to 'rediscover the notion of the common good', and that we need to take society under rational control, and that we need to limit growth, and that we need systemic long-termism, and then to turn around at the end and say the solution doesn't necessarily have to be anti-capitalist seems ridiculous to me, when the destruction of the commons, lack of society-wide rational planning, compound growth and systemic short-termism are inherent features of capitalist society. Also, he approvingly cites Thomas Malthus in the last lecture, which is weird, given his emphasis on the uniqueness of human culture (how we're shaped less and less by natural selection), which Malthus's theory completely ignores in an effort to demonstrate that poverty is an inevitable feature of human societies. But his population principle is bullshit. Humans don't breed like rodents; in reality, the tendency is for higher standards of living to correspond to lower birth-rates. People can and do choose to limit the size of their families. But of course the notion that poverty in the midst of plenty is an inevitability of nature is very attractive to those with plenty. That's why Marx called him a 'shameless sycophant of the ruling classes'. These lectures on the whole could do with a more explicit dose of marxism, cause his analysis is already pure historical-materialism anyway, his analysis of the emergence of class society around the production and control of a surplus is extremely close to Engels. And the last lecture seems to draw heavily from Marx's work on primitive accumulation. So the weak Keynesian political conclusions seem strange. Maybe he's actually farther to the left, but he didn't want to scandalise all the green liberals in the audience. Although, I dunno why he'd draw from Malthus in that case... and he dismisses Marxism (as an ideology) at the end, though he does probably mean the dogmas of the so-called Marxist states. Overall these are absolutely great though--the stuff about indigenous American democracy before the revolution is very interesting--I plan to read the book (if anyone has a digital copy that'd be awwwesome).

I've uploaded the entire series to YouTube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsPMaGdg_38

They're definitely worth your time.

RNL
11th July 2011, 03:47
‎"Experts in a range of fields have begun to see the same closing door of opportunity, begun to warn that these years may be the last when civilisation still has the wealth and political cohesion to steer itself towards caution, conservation and social justice. About 12 years ago, just before the Rio Environmental Summit that led to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, more than half the world's Nobel Laureates warned that we might have only a decade or so left to make our system sustainable. Now, in a report unsuccessfully hushed up by the Bush administration, the Pentagon--hardly a nest of treehuggers--is predicting worldwide famine, anarchy and warfare within a generation, should climate change fulfil the more severe projections. ... The ten-thousand-year experiment of the settled life will stand or fall by what we do, or don't do, now. ... We have the tools and the means to share resources, to clean up pollution, to dispense basic healthcare and birth control, to set economic limits in line with natural ones. If we don't do these things now, while we prosper, we will never be able to do them when times get hard. Our fate will twist out of our hands, and this new century will not grow very old before we enter an age of chaos and collapse that will dwarf all the dark ages in our past."

bcbm
11th July 2011, 09:54
i read the book, its quite good though as i recall he is optimistic about our prospects towards the end while nothing in the preceding pages led me to that conclusion

La Comédie Noire
11th July 2011, 15:47
Joseph Tainter is another good read on the subject of collapse and his idea of energy consumption fits in nicely with progress traps.

He basically says that when societies start getting complex they require more energy, but more complex societies create more problems which require more energy to solve and then a society gets to the point where it is "trapped" by it's own sophistication and must either expend more energy or in his words "rapidly simplify."

Warning Rambling:

I think it's interesting that Marx described the same phenomena as Tainter, Diamond, and Wright when talking about surplus value profit, labor ect. He knew profit just didn't grow on trees and had to come from somewhere. I don't know how much he would have known about Energy returned on Energy Invested, but wage labor can be seen as a way of externalizing energy costs. Thus the more fixed capital you have, the more fixed energy costs and therefore the less "free energy" you have to live off of leading to a fall in the rate of profit.

Although he too was confident in the creative power of labor and technology, if Tainter is right it may just be sinking us deeper into a Progress/energy trap.

ÑóẊîöʼn
11th July 2011, 16:51
The only way to truly escape from these so-called "progress traps" in the long term is to expand our resource base beyond our planet into the rest of the solar system. Earth contains only a tiny amount of the total mass-energy of the solar system and it's not inconcievable that we will outgrow its capacity to support civilisation even with the help of advanced technology.

A solar system-wide civilisation is a much better starting point for an insterstellar civilisation than an earthbound one, and once we have the capability to travel interstellar, then no natural disasters or resource limits would be able to hold us back. The ball would be entirely in our court.

RNL
11th July 2011, 18:48
Yeah, he draws from Joseph Tainter's work in these talks.

Another criticism I'd make of the first talk, is the theory that the extinction of the neanderthals can be considered the first 'genocide'. He talks about a 10,000-year 'war' between the cro-magnon and the neanderthals. It seems anachronistic to me to apply concepts like 'war' and 'genocide' to what was such a diffuse and, as he puts it, "unimaginable long struggle". He implies that tribal conflicts between cro-magnon and neanderthals were to some extent driven by a primitive racism. I'm just not sure how plausible that is. A general xenophobia, sure, but something ideologically comparable to racism as we know it? There would've been conflict between rival groups of cro-magnon and rival groups of neanderthals too. It's not as though all the cro-magnon tribes banded together and waged a coherent 'war' on all the neaderthal tribes. It would've just been tribe against tribe, and I wonder how much evidence there is that there was more, or fiercer, conflict between tribes of different species.