JustMovement
24th May 2011, 14:04
"Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past"
The success of the communist project ultimately depends (especially now, with the failure of the Soviet Union) on the health of the capitalist system. It is ironic that a more rational, humane system can only come about once this one becomes much more brutal, harsh and exploitative. What could cause a serious crisis of the capitalist system? Well this is pure speculation, but in my view it could be a) stagnation: Much like the Soviet Union after the 70s, if very low, or negative economic growth continues, this could force a change in paradigm; b) catastrophic crisis: much like the one before, except instead of merely stagnating there is another abrupt crash in the economy; c) environmental disaster: this is in the long term, fairly self-explanatory; d) war: Dont really see this happening, but a world war situation would have enormous impact.
There are perhaps many more circumstances that are impossible to foresee. What it boils down to is the fact that those who live in an era cannot really know at what point they are in it (if that makes sense). The larger trends, the historical arcs, only become obvious in retrospect. At the moment we cannot see the forest for the trees.
There is a sense that the pace of history (I know we are all materialists here, but I am using this phrase in a figurative sense, I am sure you all know what I mean) is quickening- with the revolutions in the Middle East, the financial crisis, the succession of environmental disasters, etc. But it is impossible to know what this all means. It could be a hiccup in the capitalist system, or it could be an omen of bigger changes. Is this merely the transition from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world? Are there even fundamental contradictions in capitalism that make its collapse inevitable? If there are how can we know when this will happen, in a year, ten years, one hundred?
The success of the communist project ultimately depends (especially now, with the failure of the Soviet Union) on the health of the capitalist system. It is ironic that a more rational, humane system can only come about once this one becomes much more brutal, harsh and exploitative. What could cause a serious crisis of the capitalist system? Well this is pure speculation, but in my view it could be a) stagnation: Much like the Soviet Union after the 70s, if very low, or negative economic growth continues, this could force a change in paradigm; b) catastrophic crisis: much like the one before, except instead of merely stagnating there is another abrupt crash in the economy; c) environmental disaster: this is in the long term, fairly self-explanatory; d) war: Dont really see this happening, but a world war situation would have enormous impact.
There are perhaps many more circumstances that are impossible to foresee. What it boils down to is the fact that those who live in an era cannot really know at what point they are in it (if that makes sense). The larger trends, the historical arcs, only become obvious in retrospect. At the moment we cannot see the forest for the trees.
There is a sense that the pace of history (I know we are all materialists here, but I am using this phrase in a figurative sense, I am sure you all know what I mean) is quickening- with the revolutions in the Middle East, the financial crisis, the succession of environmental disasters, etc. But it is impossible to know what this all means. It could be a hiccup in the capitalist system, or it could be an omen of bigger changes. Is this merely the transition from a uni-polar to a multi-polar world? Are there even fundamental contradictions in capitalism that make its collapse inevitable? If there are how can we know when this will happen, in a year, ten years, one hundred?