Middle East Demonstrations Are Steadily Morphing Into Civil Wars

[Rakhmetov]

There has never been a single great revolution in history without civil war. --- Lenin, 1918.

These civil wars will then be transformed into regional wars, and these in turn into a great World War.


http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/

[Nolan]

Why will this necessarily lead to world war?

[RadioRaheem84]

Rakhmetov, I know I am no one to speak, but your analysis of things always seems quite off.

I think the vast majority of Arabs in the region will not let their nations descned to civil war because the people are behind social change and they will only be fighting small reactionary forces.

[RedSonRising]

Cuba didn't have a civil war.

But anyways, I think that the occurrence of civil war will only happen in areas were mobilization against the current State isn't supported by a majority. Libya is the most suspect, and hence has one of the more turbulent conflicts. Egypt for example, saw little violence besides police/protest conflicts and few Mubarak supporters coming out on horses and picking fights. Libya has more of a tribal aspect to its social organization. Either way, the likelihood that these factions will somehow expand onto the international scene and turn into a Great War is unlikely. No State has the money to be committing long-term military forces right now.

[Nolan]

Cuba didn't have a civil war.Cuba did have a civil war of sorts. The guerrilla campaign.

One difference with Cuba is that it wasn't a proletarian revolution. "Socialism" wasn't declared until well after the fact. When it was, much of the ruling class easily transitioned to the state capitalist model. The others took the easy way out and fled, which was a luxury few ruling elites would have owing to Cuba's proximity to the US. Thus there was little opposition.

These uprisings won't necessarily fall into civil wars, though Libya has and there is a chance Syria might.

[Rakhmetov]

Rakhmetov, I know I am no one to speak, but your analysis of things always seems quite off.

I think the vast majority of Arabs in the region will not let their nations descned to civil war because the people are behind social change and they will only be fighting small reactionary forces.

Oh really???? With U.S. backing every reactionary group in the Middle East giving them weapons, economic aid. Civil wars are the order of the day.

http://www.revleft.com/vb/feel-something-huge-t145419/index.html?t=145419&highlight=feel+happen

[Anarchrusty]

Glenn Beck made the same analysis. Suspicious or what? Where did YOU get your info?

I apologise in advance for linking to a far right quack like Beck, but I do it to make my point visible.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6ThpZ1iyFY&feature=related

[Threetune]

If you are a worker studying any a particular discipline you should be studying the best exponents, not some mountebanks and ‘pundits’.
If you really want to know how to think and talk about revolutionary theory, read Lenin, not some gossip about Lenin, not interpretations of Lenin, just read it. It’s not hard. The bloke spent his life explaining the difficulties of moving humanity out of its chaotic backwardness onto a revolutionary road without the domination of capitalist slavery. If you are a revolutionary worker you will get it! Fuck Glenn Beck, he's a commic twat.

[Anarchrusty]

I wasn't referencing Beck coz I think he's the bee's knees. I thought that was clear. I am sorry that you misunderstood me.

[Threetune]

I wasn't referencing Beck coz I think he's the bee's knees. I thought that was clear. I am sorry that you misunderstood me.

Sorry mate, nothing personal. Just saying.

[RedSonRising]

Cuba did have a civil war of sorts. The guerrilla campaign.

One difference with Cuba is that it wasn't a proletarian revolution. "Socialism" wasn't declared until well after the fact. When it was, much of the ruling class easily transitioned to the state capitalist model. The others took the easy way out and fled, which was a luxury few ruling elites would have owing to Cuba's proximity to the US. Thus there was little opposition.

These uprisings won't necessarily fall into civil wars, though Libya has and there is a chance Syria might.

A guerrilla war supported by the peasantry and coordinated with industrial militants is more of a revolution. Unless a significant part of the civilian population takes up arms, I wouldn't call it a "Civil War." Unless revolutionary warfare is always considered a civil war. I suppose it defines on your definitions of it.

Libya may be funded by US imperialists, but they cannot afford to sustain their hold on the region by committing enough troops or funds.