China to beat U.S economy by 2016

[a rebel]

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch (http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch)

According to this article, China will be the world's leading economy by 2016. What do you think this means for the global economy in the coming years? And how do you think this will change America?

[RadioRaheem84]

That soon? :(

Time to gtfo!

[Rusty Shackleford]

now that i am actually surprised by.

[Queercommie Girl]

Don't forget that China's rapid economic growth is built literally on the lives of Chinese workers...

Foxconn suicides...ridiculously high rates of coal mine accidents...other work-related deaths that are far higher than the global average rate.

They say for every metre of the Great Wall of China are the buried bones of several labourers who worked to death inside the earthwork core of the Wall. The contemporary "economic miracle" of China is just like a 21st century "Great Wall".

Some right-wing commentators in China literally say things like "without the deaths of these workers, there is no prosperity for China". :crying:

[Sword and Shield]

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch (http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch)

According to this article, China will be the world's leading economy by 2016. What do you think this means for the global economy in the coming years? And how do you think this will change America?

Not much. China has already been a major economy, and the United States has long been dependent on cheap Chinese production. In terms of geopolitics, China, while not the imperialist puppet it once was, is content to take a "neutral" stand and allow the West to plunder the rest of the world. If there's one change it could have, the increasing luxury of the Chinese middle class might cause a resurgence for leftists within China. But that's more what I'm hoping for than what I'm expecting.

[Jose Gracchus]

When you say imperialist puppet, do you mean the realpolitik played with Nixon and post-Nixon U.S., or do you mean back when the ROC controlled the mainland?

As for my diagnosis: one more step toward multi-polarity, and a kind of, geopolitically speaking, multipolar system of capitalist imperialism, similar to pre-World War I. Though there are no unspoiled virgin lands and peoples, no new ground to truly force open and exploit as in the late 19th and early 20th c., so the exact implications for this are pretty hard to predict.

[Sword and Shield]

I mean the realpolitik played with Nixon and the US (most notably the Chinese epic fail in Vietnam).

[RadioRaheem84]

What Chinese workers will have to face is the growing number of the capitalist class and their middle managerial lackeys who have gained considerable amounts of social power.

The level of growth China experienced has been through the hard labor of the Chinese worker. Where before at the onset of the reforms they faced bureaucrats they're now going to have to face them, a capitalist class and a whole new class that has been lifted up into managerial positions.

I don't want to say revolution looks bleak in China because there are more workers than all three other classes combined but that the fight will be much. much harder than at the onset of Deng's reforms.

[~Spectre]

What Chinese workers will have to face is the growing number of the capitalist class and their middle managerial lackeys who have gained considerable amounts of social power.

The level of growth China experienced has been through the hard labor of the Chinese worker. Where before at the onset of the reforms they faced bureaucrats they're now going to have to face them, a capitalist class and a whole new class that has been lifted up into managerial positions.

I don't want to say revolution looks bleak in China because there are more workers than all three other classes combined but that the fight will be much. much harder than at the onset of Deng's reforms.

Your thinking isn't that far off from the elite American bourgeoisie (and I meant that in a good way).

Fareed Zakaria hosted a panel with some economists IIRC and one of their major concerns for the continued growth of the economy of China was, "the rise of a Marxist movement for the new industrialized working class".

[RadioRaheem84]

Your thinking isn't that far off from the elite American bourgeoisie (and I meant that in a good way).

Fareed Zakaria hosted a panel with some economists IIRC and one of their major concerns for the continued growth of the economy of China was, "the rise of a Marxist movement for the new industrialized working class".

JOY!:lol:

[Dumb]

One possible mitigating factor is that China won't be able to maintain its current rate of growth indefinitely. 10-13% growth isn't too hard when two-thirds of your population lives on a dollar a day (as was the case in 1978). As the economy grows, though, the denominator grows larger and larger - and the larger the economy, the harder it is to maintain a high percentage of growth.

I expect to see China to continue growing - and yes, to overtake the U.S. in total (but not per capita) terms within a decade; however, over the next couple decades, expect China's growth to slow down gradually to the 8% range, then 5%, and then stabilise around 3%.

[Tablo]

2016? They gotta be overestimating. I think people fail realize exactly how huge the US economy really is. Without a doubt China will pass the US, but I think it will take a few decades, not just 5 years.

[progressive_lefty]

We have to remember that many economists are waiting for China's 'economic growth bubble' to pop. When it happens I imagine it will bring about some sort of negative effect to the already slow global market. I saw a documentary a couple of weeks back about empty buildings and apartment blocks in China. This is mostly as a result of the Government's continued push for building development regardless of the obvious gaps in inflation and affordability amongst the Chinese population.

[miltonwasfried...man]

China may become the largest global economy, but that will only increase the burden on the average citizen. The global economy is based on the explotation of the poor for the gain of the wealthy and it is a shame the Chinese call themselves communist. In reaction to losing this global game of monopoly we call economics the Americans will further attack workers rights and social programs in order to 'compete'. Thusly leading to a downward continuous spiral of oppression for profit.

[Tommy4ever]

I can't say I believe this prediction at all.

At the moment the USA has a GDP of 14.7 trillion dollars.

China has a GDP of 9.8 trillion dollars. In China the trend growth rate is about 10%, if they keep to this trend for the next 5 years then their GDP will be just under 16 trillion dollars. So it would be larger than the US economy, assuming the US doesn't grow much in the same 5 year period.

Even if we take a very disapointing trend growth rate for the US over those 5 years (say 3%) then America at the same point would have a GDP of just over 17 trillion. So even taking these potential growth rates which are kind to China and harsh on the US one would really expect America to remain the largest economy. However, I would expect China to become the largest within 10 years.

I'd also imagine that over the course of the next 5 years we are probably going to see a slight slowing of Chinese economic growth. In the recently begun 12th 5 year plan the Chinese government shifted their focus from rampant industrial growth to trying to tackle inequalities (between regions and groups of people), to increase domestic consumption (China has a real problem of having an over reliance on exports) and trying to make their economy more sustainable. They have also targeted a growth rate of just 8% for the coming year - so we can see that as a more likely trend growth rate for China over the next 5 years.

Meanwhile, the US economy is bouncing back from harsh times and in an economy like America that is likely going to lead to an unsustainable and short lived economic boom.

So yeah, I'm not convinced by the 5 year statistic. I'd expect roughly 10 years.

The links I used:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-Year_Plans_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#The _Twelfth_Five-Year_Guideline.2C_2011.E2.80.932015
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html