Left-wing(?) nationalist running first in Peru

[Gorilla]

It is nice to see the World Bank types on the run. On the other hand Humala's politics are fairly awful even if you overlook his role in the Sendero war.


Humala confirmed as Peru elections front-runner according to new polls

Two new polls confirm nationalist left-wing Ollanta Humala’s lead as the front-runner in Peru’s presidential elections.

Humala has 26.9 percent in the latest poll made by the Public Opinion Institute of Peru’s Catholic University (PUCP), published today Friday. This is the highest vote intention registered so far by Humala in the presidential campaign.

Presidential candidates [former president and World Bank official] Alejandro Toledo comes in second with 20.8 percent, followed by [daughter of ex-president Alberto Fujimori] Keiko Fujimori with 20.3 percent, and in fourth place [former prime minister and World Bank official] Pedro Pablo Kuzcynski [aka PPK] with 18.5 percent, according to the same poll.

Lima’s ex mayor, Luis Castañeda, comes in fifth with 13.3 percent, followed by José Antonio Ñique de la Puente, with 0.2 percent.

Humala rose from 16 to 24 percent and PPK from 11 to 17 percent, between the current and previous polls made by the PUCP institute. Toledo dropped from 27 to 19 percent and Castañeda from 17 to 12 percent. Keiko shows the least change, dropping one point between both polls.

The survey was made between March 26 and 29, and 1800 people were polled in 19 regions of Peru.

Toledo’s “fear” strategy didn’t work

A second poll made by Datum and also published today by Perú21 daily is headed by Humala with 21.4 percent.

Kuczynski comes in second with 17.5 percent followed by Toledo with 17.4 percent, technically a tie. Keiko Fujimori comes in fourth with 16.4 percent and Castañeda fifth with 12.6 percent.

Humala’s rise in the polls should be seen with “skepticism” says political analyst Carlos Basombrío, who warned that people change of mind quite constantly and the nationalist's leadership in the polls could be reverted after the debate to take place on April 3.

“If last Sunday we had a scenario of only three candidates – Humala, Toledo, and Fujimori – with this new poll now we have four, with PPK who seems to be an option again,” he said to Perú21.

Basombrío and Víctor Andrés Ponce, another respected political analyst, coincided that Toledo’s strategy of presenting himself as the only one that can save Peru from a Hugo Chávez-oriented-regime imposed by Humala, has not given him positive results.

“Toledo’s fear strategy has not worked,” said Ponce. “Peruvians feel confident that in a second round Humala will be defeated regardless of who is his contender. Seventy percent of the population rejects a Chávez-influenced regime,” he said.

Basombrío added that Kuczynski is seen as a good option or even better than Toledo to confront and defeat Humala. That is why the ex president has fallen in the polls and PPK has surged, he said to Perú21.


http://www.livinginperu.com/news/14512

[Primavera]

Seventy percent of the population rejects a Chávez-influenced regime,” he said.

Is there a source for this or is he just pulling numbers out of his ass?

[Rodolfo]

Is there a source for this or is he just pulling numbers out of his ass?

Hugo Chavez is extremely unpopular in most of Latin America. As the media goes the public goes. There is one significant exception, though, and it's edifying - Venezuela - where he has an approval rating of about 50%. Humala has been very careful to distance himself from Chavez this cycle though the bourgie people of Lima aren't buying it. I keep trying to find information on Humala's policy proposals but can't find much. He's proposing a pension plan for people who have spent their lives working in the informal economy, he's advocating a constituent assembly and new constitution (although I can find little information on what exactly would be in it) and he's advocating an increase in mining taxes which he would use to fund a set of ambitious social welfare programs. He has very significant support among the poor rurals but will face stiff competition and an uphill battle in the second round of voting.

I am doubtful whether he can win the run-off. Peru is rather right-wing. Along with Colombia it is the only country that hasn't elected a left-wing government in South America. I wonder why? Both countries have a history of brutal and bloody left-wing terrorism. Also, current president Alan Garcia's earlier liberal regime caused a lot of inflation back in the 80s during his first term (it is forbidden in Peru for a president to serve two consecutive terms). I do think Humala would do a lot for the poor in Peru. His performance in the last debate was kinda sad, though. He'll probably be running against Keiko Fujirmori, the daughter of the imprisoned right-wing former president. We'll see what happens. Does anyone have further details on Humala's policy proposals?

[Ligeia]

Peru is rather right-wing. Along with Colombia it is the only country that hasn't elected a left-wing government in South America. I wonder why? Both countries have a history of brutal and bloody left-wing terrorism.
Why do you look at South America only and not Latin America?
What about Mexico? It hasn't elected any left-wing government(or anything that could be slightly considered as such),too. And it has no history of terrorism (at least no left wing violence).

Also...look at this:


Peruvian President Alan Garcia announced on Sunday plans for Peru, Colombia, Mexico and Chile to create a new economic bloc, in an interview with El Tiempo. Garcia told the Colombian newspaper that plans are in place for the leaders of each nation to meet in Lima on May 2 in order to set out a road map for further economic integration.
source (http://latinamericacurrentevents.com/colombia-peru-mexico-chile-form-economic-bloc/)

Here's a little spanish-language text about his proposals:
proposals (http://www.partidonacionalistaperuano.net/propuestas/propuesta-nacionalista-afirmar-la-nacion-transformar-el-estado.html)
Other than that he wants to raise pensions and minimum wage, as well as investments in education. He wants to build hospitals in every capital, abolish parlamentary immunity,...and invest more in the police.
Anyway, I've heard he had some really questionable proposals in 2006.