Are we forgetting Bahrain? And what about Iraq?

[EspirituDeAmaru]

I want to turn this thread into a collection of opinions and info on the situation in Bahrain and Iraq. Let me start off but setting the ground work. The situation in Bahrain is getting very hectic. The background lies within the Muslim religion. Saudia Arabia is roughly 70% sunni and 30% Shi'ite. Ruled by iron fist of the Sunni Royal family. It has recently invaded its tiny neighbor Bahrain which is run by a Sunni King in a country which is 70% SHI'ITE and just 30% Sunni. The Shi'ite majority feel completely disenfranchised. and have declared all this an act of war. Saudia Arabia domestically has subsidized the population with over 40 billion dollars of reform to quell the uprisings. How do we think the international community should handle this situation and what do you think will come from this.

One the other hand Iraq is slowly crumbling. Hundreds of protesters are being arrested and many are being shot for demonstrating against the government and lack of employment. They want to see change and a new government after seeing a worsening situation since the Iraq war. It is difficult to get info on this ongoing conflict due to the suppression of the American Media.

[Comrade J]

First off, you're wanting to create a thread that discusses both Bahrain and Iraq. Both are in very different states of chaos for different reasons, and with the exclusion of a discussion on sectarian violence, I don't think one can rightfully compare the two.

I haven't been on here for quite some time, but no doubt there is plenty of discussion on Iraq, so I will talk about Bahrain, and why the Gulf Cooperation Council has invaded. Some of what I will post here is from the article I wrote for Infoshop (http://news.infoshop.org).

When the protestors took to the streets, their aims included putting an end to the King's policy of appointing key government ministers, including the Prime Minister, and to prevent further granting of citizenship to Sunnis from South Asia. This practice had been designed to tip the Sunni/Shia balance, and a lot of the Sunnis that were granted citizenship went on to work in the security services, thereby facilitating further oppression (Despite being a majority, Shi'ites in Bahrain struggle to get housing, jobs, etc.) When 6 protestors were killed by the police, the struggle increased and protestors demanded an outright abolition of the monarchy, which from the perspective of the ruling class of the Gulf states, cannot be tolerated. And as we all know, eventually Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent in forces of over 1000 to defend financial and government institutions in the capital Manama, and violently remove protestors from their strongholds.

The mainstream media depicts this as a fair response and typically doesn't talk about why they did it. The strategic importance of Bahrain cannot be overstated. As small as it may be, it has vast oil and pearl wealth, and not an unreasonable amount of concentrated capital. Furthermore, it is also the base for the United States Fifth Fleet, from where they control and monitor the Gulf region and curb Iranian regional influence. It should be noted that whilst being a Gulf State, Iran is excluded from the GCC as it is Shia-ruled whereas as you said the other Gulf states are Sunni-ruled.

I imagine also that there are worries amongst the Saudi ruling class that a successful protest in Bahrain may trigger similar unrest in Saudi Arabia’s eastern provinces, which is predominantly Shia, and where the majority of their oil wells are positioned.

Also from what I've read on Bahrain, the Shia opposition there has long been attracted to Iran and its Shia rule, perhaps most evident from the 1981 failed Islamic revolution which was intended to put in power a fundamentalist Shia cleric exiled in Iran. Even today, some Iranian officials consider Bahrain to be the “14th province of Iran”.

Should the Gulf States tolerate this political uprising, there is the definite possibility that Iran’s influence in Bahrain would soar, increasing its power in the Gulf and allowing further destabilisation of Bahrain by encouraging sectarian divide, akin to their recent strategy in Iraq. However, the reason I said the two cannot really be compared is because unlike in Iraq, Iran's influence in Bahrain is currently pretty negligible cause al Khalifa is a severe dictator and receives millions from the United States to combat Iranian-funded Shi'ite militarism. I really don't think Bahrain will be a success story for the protestors, as too much lies at stake for the Gulf states and the United States to allow it.

[EspirituDeAmaru]

I agree that the interests between the US and its gulf allies have to much at stake. Do you believe there is any way that this may escalate and have Iran throw more military support behind Bahrain or are they too enthralled with global politics to actually divide this conflict even deeper ethnically wise? With the US caught up in libya now as well as other middle eastern states I dont see why Iran would not pick this time to actually try and get more involved in this situation.

[TC]

Sadly the left's interests trail the bourgeois media's.

[Rakhmetov]

I've been pondering why can't "enough" Shiites from Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere flock to Saudi Arabia during any new days of rages and help out??? Am I brain dead to come up with that one???

[Obs]

I've been pondering why can't "enough" Shiites from Iran, Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere flock to Saudi Arabia during any new days of rages and help out??? Am I brain dead to come up with that one???
Yes, you are. The Muslim world doesn't need more sectarian violence. Rather, it needs heightened class struggle.

[EspirituDeAmaru]

Class struggle has begun in an unprecedented fashion. We as leftists should know that these petty differences of ethics, religion, race, sex etc. is only created by the upper class to further shadow the true struggle and the thing that unites us all which is class.

[Comrade J]

I agree that the interests between the US and its gulf allies have to much at stake. Do you believe there is any way that this may escalate and have Iran throw more military support behind Bahrain or are they too enthralled with global politics to actually divide this conflict even deeper ethnically wise? With the US caught up in libya now as well as other middle eastern states I dont see why Iran would not pick this time to actually try and get more involved in this situation.

You're right, they're certainly deeply involved in the situation, but Iran probably can't risk any overt military campaign in the Gulf until it is clear what gains they will make, they're already walking a thin line with their nuclear programme and support of the intifada in Iraq. No doubt the US Department of Defense is already building an invasion case to propose to the UN at some later date (they will pretty much need the UN's support this time round) so Iran couldn't risk anything yet, nor do they have a valid excuse for any sort of intervention, though the whole international community knows their ambitions in the Gulf. Also, domestically, Iran is precarious and would be left internally vulnerable if it committed itself to a Gulf war.

Still, sectarian ties aside, realpolitik dictates that Iran will be trying to increase its influence through other channels, like working with Hasan Mushaima, who is a Shi'ite key opposition figure in Bahrain calling for a republic. They have also publically denounced the invasion from the Gulf States and Bahrain has kicked out the Iranian ambassador, triggering some sort of mutual diplomat-for-diplomat eviction process between the two countries, so things are pretty tense at the moment. Ahmadinejad has compared it to the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and even the moderate leader of the Iranian parliament (whose name I forget) has warned of 'consequences'.

I'm no expert, I just have a keen interest in international politics, but I wouldn't be surprised if in the coming weeks we at least see Iranian warships on the scene. Bahrain is the least publicised revolt in the western media but I don't think it is too bold a statement to say that if Iran takes this opportunity, it could actually turn out to be the biggest event in international politics since 9/11.

As for the US being caught up in Libya, I don't think that's really an issue. The US is ready to take a step back if there is heavy condemnation from the Arab states, and it already has a fleet on standby in the Gulf.


Sadly the left's interests trail the bourgeois media's.

Great input to the debate TC, as ever.

[Le Socialiste]

I would agree that we must not lose sight of what is happening in Iraq, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. The struggles there are of major importance in the general movement for political and social emancipation. I have noticed that the media isn't paying nearly as much attention (if any) to the increasingly violent/repressive situation in that region. Here's some stuff I've found over the past few days/weeks:

"US ally Bahrain orders bloody crackdown on protesters"
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/mar2011/bahr-m18.shtml

"The tide of revolt reaches Iraq"
http://socialistworker.org/2011/03/01/tide-of-revolt-reaches-iraq

"Bahrain Hospital on frontline in protest crackdown"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110320/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_bahrain_hospital_showdown

"US gives green light to invade Bahrain"
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/170769.html

Also of importance, I think, is the situation in states like Oman and Yemen:

"Oil workers strike in Oman"
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/mar2011/oman-m17.shtml

"Yemeni forces massacre dozens of protesters"
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/mar2011/yeme-m19.shtml

"Yemen's weakened president abandoned by own tribe"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110320/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_yemen

[Le Socialiste]

Class struggle has begun in an unprecedented fashion. We as leftists should know that these petty differences of ethics, religion, race, sex etc. is only created by the upper class to further shadow the true struggle and the thing that unites us all which is class.


I couldn't agree more. This is a form of class struggle that has erupted all across the N. Africa/Middle-East region, sparking countless demonstrations and struggles. The global bourgeoisie is intent on masking these movements with talk of "fundamentalists", "religious strife", and "disunity in the Arab world" - which does nothing to address the increaingly disparate conditions between the ruling-classes and the working poor. What is of great interest and fascination to me is the outbreak in strike actions and working-class solidarity. Egypt has undergone massive waves of national strikes, and Oman's situation is quickly evolving into one centered on class warfare. Hopefully this continues to spread; even if these struggles are put down (which I hope they won't), the people in these countries have rediscovered the unity of emancipatory struggle and workers'/peoples' revolt. Once tasted, it isn't an easy thing to forget. :thumbup1: