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scarletghoul

26th February 2011, 18:01

I think we should have a fresh thread to discuss the results as they come in. Looks like the ULA are doing pretty well with 2 elected so far (Joe Higgins and seamus healey). The next Dail should be pretty interesting, especially if SF remains vaguely left wing.

Great to see the joke that is the green party getting a big fat nothing.

Zeus the Moose

26th February 2011, 18:54

Well, Fianna Fail just got a TD elected through actual votes (so not counting the speaker): Brian Lenihan in Dublin West (Joe Higgins' constituency.) However, it was down to the last count, and he only got in because he had more votes than the other final candidate. That's a pretty bad sign for Fianna Fail, IMO.

Also, Gerry Adams has just been elected in Louth.

Tommy4ever

26th February 2011, 18:57

We have an Irish election thread. Best to keep things in one thread.

scarletghoul

26th February 2011, 18:59

Fianna Fail is living up to their name ahahaha

I am torn between indifference and critical support for Gerry Adams..

scarletghoul

26th February 2011, 19:01

We have an Irish election thread. Best to keep things in one thread.
That was more about the micro details of the trot stuff, this thread is for the election results as a whole

ed miliband

26th February 2011, 19:02

Fianna Fail is living up to their name ahahaha

I am torn between indifference and critical support for Gerry Adams..

http://cdn.hellobeautiful.com/files/2009/06/tin-foil_365.jpg

?

Die Neue Zeit

26th February 2011, 19:43

Something to do with "foil" I guess. :confused:

Die Neue Zeit

26th February 2011, 19:44

Something to do with "foil" I guess. :confused:

MapOfYourHead

26th February 2011, 19:49

Although the ULA and Sein Fein will be a powerful leftist force within the next Dail, I'm still amused as to how the current economic crisis has pushed the majority of the Irish population even further right than that of Fianna Fail, and as a consequence, the majority taking on the belief that the same policies that got Ireland into this mess in the first place, will get them out of it.

ed miliband

26th February 2011, 20:52

"Fáil" is not pronounced like "fail" (as in: epic fail), but commonly as "foil". That said, my dad speaks a bit of Gaelic and pronounces it "fall", so I dunno.

Crux

26th February 2011, 21:09

That was more about the micro details of the trot stuff, this thread is for the election results as a whole
Yes, will be greatly surprised when FG/Lab becomes the new government.

resurgence

26th February 2011, 21:16

"Fáil" is not pronounced like "fail" (as in: epic fail), but commonly as "foil". That said, my dad speaks a bit of Gaelic and pronounces it "fall", so I dunno.

Foil is the correct pronounciation. The connections with heroin is pretty obvious (people uses kitchen foil to smoke heroin).

Comrade Wolfie's Very Nearly Banned Adventures

26th February 2011, 21:22

Some numbers according to RTE via the Guardian:

According to RTÉ, Fine Gael took 36.1% of the vote, with Labour coming second with 20.5%. Fianna Fáil support is put at just 15.1%, by far its worst general election result, and will mean a massive loss of seats across the country – including a wipeout in the capital.
Sinn Féin's support is put at 10.1% – again a record in the Irish Republic – while the Greens are on 2.7%, which could see the party save some seats despite predictions they would be wiped out.
Independents and others got 15.5% of the vote – a high figure thought to be spread quite thinly given the number of candidates. Where those votes transfer could be crucial to the final outcome of counts across 43 constituencies

Really looks like FF's support has collapsed. Not that the FG/Lab govt will be much better...

scarletghoul

26th February 2011, 21:32

Clare Daly elected apparently.. Thats at least 3 commies (i dont know what all the independents are like )

Jolly Red Giant

26th February 2011, 21:50

The ULA will win five seats in the election -

Joe Higgins Socialist Party (elected)
Seamus Healy WUAG (elected)
Clare Daly Socialist Party (elected)
Joan Collins People Before Profit (election pending)
Richard Boyd Barrett PBP / SWP (election pending - currently a full recount)

Socialist Party - 26,770
People Before Profit - 21,526
Other ULA candidates - 11,102
Total ULA Vote = 59,398 (2.66%)

Joe Higgins will resign as an MEP to take his parliament seat and will be replaced by a substitute from the Socialist Party MEP substitute panel (probably Paul Murphy)

As an extra - the Green Party are completely wiped out.

Aurora

26th February 2011, 21:51

Clare Daly elected, Joan Collins is coming 3rd in a 5 seat constituency with 6500 first preference votes.

In Richard Boyd-Barrett's constituency of Dun Laoghaire Labour have called a recount due to Ivana Bacik being so close to Boyd-Barretts votes, whoever comes out lowest will be excluded and their transfers might be able to get the other over sitting FF TD Hanafin.
At present Boyd-Barrett is ahead of Labour by 150votes and he needs at least 600 transfers to win a seat.

scarletghoul

26th February 2011, 22:08

Is there a chance of any more ULAs getting elected aside from those 5

Jolly Red Giant

26th February 2011, 22:25

Is there a chance of any more ULAs getting elected aside from those 5

No

Delenda Carthago

27th February 2011, 11:52

Three questions.

A.Socialist Party is Sinn Fein?
B.Is this result for the good?
C.What brings this election for the next day?

27th February 2011, 12:08

Three questions.

A.Socialist Party is Sinn Fein?
No. The SP is the Irish section of the CWI. Why did you link it with SF?

resurgence

27th February 2011, 12:13

Three questions.

A.Socialist Party is Sinn Fein?
B.Is this result for the good?
C.What brings this election for the next day?

Sinn Fein are basically a radical Social Democratic party (similar in politics I guess to Chavez) , they were never really Socialist as such but they used to contain a lot of Socialists of varying descriptions. Those days are long past now. Sinn Fein is now more or less part of the establishment on both sides of the border.

Tower of Bebel

27th February 2011, 12:18

Statistically, the ULA has enough votes for two seats. But it's propable that, although traditional parties got most of the preference votes, many voters have given their second preference to an opposition candidate (independent or ULA). Add this to a devided political landscape (Labour f.e. didn't benefit that much from loss of the governing parties) and you get a good result for alternative candidates after four or more redistribution of votes.

Andropov

27th February 2011, 12:45

Sinn Fein are basically a radical Social Democratic party (similar in politics I guess to Chavez) , they were never really Socialist as such but they used to contain a lot of Socialists of varying descriptions. Those days are long past now. Sinn Fein is now more or less part of the establishment on both sides of the border.
In alot of working class areas in the south they still do alot of good work for working class people, I see it myself here.
Hence why they get good votes in working class communities.
That being said they have some glaring ideological pitfalls and the like but in the south they do help working class people out to a degree.
Great to see Higgins, Daly, Boyd Barrett, Collins and Healy all in and the utter destruction of FF.
Also lets not forget the likes of Ming Flanagan and Maureen O'Sullivan that are both progressive.
Slowly but surely the political landscape is changing.
Personally im gutted that Bree didnt get in here, he held up the town vote like I expected, polled the second highest in the town but got nothing outside of the town with Colreavy (PSF) and O'Keefe (Labour) getting all left of centre votes.
On the bright side Colreavy did beat a FF crook to the last seat.
Now we get to look forward to the blueshirts butchering the country, id give the FG-Labour coalition 2 years max, between the divisions with the old school parochial hick FG'ers and the newer right(er) winger toffs and then the differences between Labour and FG and then the budgets they have to force through, I cant see them lasting more than 2 years.
Also just an aside, Fianna Fail, its pronounced "FALL" not "FOIL".

Jolly Red Giant

27th February 2011, 14:56

Three questions.

A.Socialist Party is Sinn Fein?

No - Socialist Party is affiliated to CWI (Greek affiliate is http://www.xekinima.org/)

B.Is this result for the good?
Yes - biggest ever far left parliamentary representation in Ireland.

C.What brings this election for the next day?
Next task is to launch and build the United Left Alliance as new mass left party and prepare for the battles against the IMF/ECB attacks

Gravedigger01

27th February 2011, 16:25

There are 165 seats up for grabs. In the 2007 election far-leftists such as Joe Higgins and Seamus Healy lost there seats so any representation would be good for us.I think the following elected TD's could be called far-left(depending on your definition).

Joe Higgins-United Left Alliance/Socialist Party

Clare Daly-United Left Alliance/Socialist Party

Richard Boyd Barret-United Left Alliance/People Before Profit Alliance

Joan Collins-United Left Alliance/People Before Profit Alliance

Seamus Healy-United Left Alliance/Workers and Unemployed Action Group

Thomas Pringle-Independent(former Sinn Féin and was in talks to join ULA)

Maureen O' Sullivan-Independent(election agent of late republican socialist Tony Gregory)

John Halligan-Independent(member and deputy leader of Workers Party until 2009 when he left because of a disagreement over water charges)

Zeus the Moose

27th February 2011, 17:52

Jolly Red Giant

27th February 2011, 18:30

From what I've been reading about the structure of the Dail, a group needs 7 TDs to be given speaking time on par with the larger parties, so do you think it would be likely that at least two of the TDs you mention would form a Technical Group with the ULA?
Doesn't work like that - Only one Technical Group is allowed and it must comprise of a majority of independent/small party members (i.e. anyone who is not a member of a party or whose party does not have 7 seats).

In effect this means that a minimum of 10 members are needed to form a Technical Group (there are currently 19 non-aligned members). The only other mechanism available is for the ULA to be registered as a political party and to recruit two of the left-leaning independents (e.g. Pringle and Murphy).

Die Neue Zeit

27th February 2011, 18:41

Next task is to launch and build the United Left Alliance as new mass left party and prepare for the battles against the IMF/ECB attacks

The only other mechanism available is for the ULA to be registered as a political party and to recruit two of the left-leaning independents (e.g. Pringle and Murphy).

Speaking of which:

Left gains in Ireland (http://www.redpepper.org.uk/left-gains-in-ireland/) by James O'Nions, Red Pepper Blog

Five deputies for the United Left Alliance, while Sinn Féin takes at least 13

Elections to Ireland's lower house, the Dáil, have seen a jump in representation for the left, while also rewarding Ireland's Tories. The vote for Fianna Fáil, Ireland's traditional party of government, slumped, leaving them with less than half the 77 seats they had before.

Fine Gael, now the largest party, is likely to seek a coalition with Labour, which has beaten its previous highest seat tally and seen a big jump since the last parliament. Yet it has done so largely with the votes of people opposed to austerity, which Fine Gael is committed to continuing, albeit with some cosmetic changes.

Ireland uses proportional representation in multi-seat constituencies of between three and five seats. The Single Tranferable Vote system is somewhat complex, and voting is still continuing in some constituencies, but the overall picture is now clear.

The Greens lost all six of their seats. They were widely criticised on the left for supporting spending cuts in coalition with Fianna Fáil. While they've continued to publicly justify their decision to go into the coalition by citing green reforms that would not otherwise have happened, there will surely be serious reflection going on in the party after these sobering results.

Left-republican Sinn Féin more than tripled its share of the vote, with Gerry Adams elected with 22 per cent of first preferences in Louth. In an amusing aside, David Cameron's office was forced to apologise to Adams after he resigned from his Westminster seat to run in the Irish republic's election. Technically MPs are not allowed to resign, so the traditional way of allowing them to do so is to give them the office of Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead. This is an "office of profit under the crown" which makes them ineligible to sit in the House of Commons. Cameron's office claimed he had accepted the post, prompting Adams to reply: "I simply resigned. I was not consulted nor was I asked to accept such an office. I am an Irish republican. I have had no truck whatsoever with these antiquated and quite bizarre aspects of the British parliamentary system."

The United Left Alliance, which was put together hurriedly at the end of last year, is mainly made up of the Socialist Party and the Socialist Workers Party-dominated People before Profit Alliance. However, one of its five elected deputies, Séamus Healy, is the key figure in the Tipperary-based Workers and Unemployed Action Group.

Healy was elected first in the three-seat Tipperary South constituency, as was the Socialist Party's Joe Higgins in Dublin West. Higgins made a breakthrough in the European elections in 2009 when he beat sitting Sinn Féin MEP Mary Lou MacDonald to the third Dublin euro-seat. He has also been a Dáil deputy before, though not in the last parliament, and is a popular figure in Dublin for his role in the campaign against the Bin Tax.

The Socialist Workers Party's Richard Boyd-Barrett just made it as the last of four deputies from the Dublin constituency of Dun Laoghaire. It was a run off between him and Ivana Bacik for Labour, but once she was eliminated, her votes transfered to him - though not before she had demanded a recount.

Given the nature of their breakthrough, the United Left Alliance must now consider what kind of left reorganisation it wants to pursue. Undoubtedly the ULA will become a more enduring formation, but whether it remains a simple electoral alliance or becomes something more concrete remains to be seen. In theory, its two main constituents (who are allied to parties of the same name in Britain) are fairly close politically. Yet they come from political traditions which tend to regard their own particular brand of Trotskyism as sacrosanct.

Since its breakthrough in 2009, the Left Party in Germany has been copied in various places across Europe, but the model the ULA would perhaps be better looking to is the Left Bloc in Portugal, which started as an agreement between two small far-left groups and now has 10 per cent of the MPs in Portugal's parliament.

Yet while the left has been strengthened electorally, with a Fine Gael/Labour government unlikely to upset the IMF and Europe's neoliberal establishment (which in any case Fine Gael are part of) it will be popular mobilisation that still counts in the months to come.

FSL

28th February 2011, 08:52

Left gains in Ireland (http://www.redpepper.org.uk/left-gains-in-ireland/) by James O'Nions, Red Pepper Blog

Given the nature of their breakthrough, the United Left Alliance must now consider what kind of left reorganisation it wants to pursue. Undoubtedly the ULA will become a more enduring formation, but whether it remains a simple electoral alliance or becomes something more concrete remains to be seen. In theory, its two main constituents (who are allied to parties of the same name in Britain) are fairly close politically. Yet they come from political traditions which tend to regard their own particular brand of Trotskyism as sacrosanct.

Since its breakthrough in 2009, the Left Party in Germany has been copied in various places across Europe, but the model the ULA would perhaps be better looking to is the Left Bloc in Portugal, which started as an agreement between two small far-left groups and now has 10 per cent of the MPs in Portugal's parliament.
The "Left Bloc" in Portugal supported the Socialist Party's candidate in the portuguese presidential elections a while back.
That is the governing party's candidate.

Yeah, they make a great example to follow

chebol

28th February 2011, 10:40

Slightly OT:
Technically "foil" is probably closer than "fall", although it would sound more like "fall" to most people. It also varies in pronunciation by region though.
The "i" is basically only there to indicate that the "l" is "slender" (as opposed to the "broad" "l") and therefore it sounds like there is a little bit (but only a little bit) of an "y" or "i" sound before it. The original word is "fál" - meaning (depending on who you listen to) "destiny" or "Ireland".

Back on topic:
Re. Portugal. The ULA would best look to the reality in Ireland (rather than Portugal, Germany, France or whatever), the possibility of making Sinn Fein walk their talk, and how to build the biggest opposition to the cuts and the new pro-IMF government both inside and outside the Dáil.
Which is - I'm sure - what they'll do.

Also, there's already been talk of independent TD for Donegal SW Tom Pringle forming a technical group with the ULA in the Dáil.

*Clarification* - that is, Pringle is keen to form a TG.

Andropov

28th February 2011, 12:40

Also Ming Flanagan in Roscommon/South Leitrim is quite a progressive candidate, could possibly work with the ULA.

Jolly Red Giant

28th February 2011, 17:06

Also Ming Flanagan in Roscommon/South Leitrim is quite a progressive candidate, could possibly work with the ULA.
Among other things Ming supports the introduction of mandatory health insurance.

Delenda Carthago

28th February 2011, 17:58

I ve heard that the workers party is really radical and its gonna be a part of the coalition government.Is it true?

28th February 2011, 19:04

I ve heard that the workers party is really radical and its gonna be a part of the coalition government.Is it true?

Being "really radical" (whatever that means) and participating in government are pretty much mutually exclusive, especially when your coalition partners are going to be christian-democrats (Fine Gael) and Labour.

Iraultzaile Ezkerreko

28th February 2011, 21:50

I ve heard that the workers party is really radical and its gonna be a part of the coalition government.Is it true?

As far as I know, the Workers' Party hasn't even won any seats. They barely even broke 3,000 votes. I think you are mistaking the Workers' Party for the Labour Party.

Crux

28th February 2011, 23:08

I think Halligan, the ex-WP independent said he was open to backing the government or somesuch.

Jolly Red Giant

1st March 2011, 00:09

I think Halligan, the ex-WP independent said he was open to backing the government or somesuch.
Rumour has it that Fine Gael approached him to stand as a candidate before the election.

Crux

1st March 2011, 00:23

Rumour has it that Fine Gael approached him to stand as a candidate before the election.
Oh for fuck's sake...

So who do you reckon could fill the two extra seats for the ULA to be able to from a technical group, assuming the ULA is to register as a party? From what I've read mr. Pringle seems a given.

Zeus the Moose

1st March 2011, 00:36

Oh for fuck's sake...

So who do you reckon could fill the two extra seats for the ULA to be able to from a technical group, assuming the ULA is to register as a party? From what I've read mr. Pringle seems a given.

Possibly Maureen O'Sullivan, who was the election agent of independent TD Tony Gregory until his death (then won the by-election after his death.) Gregory did seem fairly left-wing, though more on a "community activist" platform, and he was briefly a member of the IRSP.

pastradamus

1st March 2011, 03:46

Oh for fuck's sake...

So who do you reckon could fill the two extra seats for the ULA to be able to from a technical group, assuming the ULA is to register as a party? From what I've read mr. Pringle seems a given.

A technical group will be easy to form. It dosent have to be done on an ideology basis, the only reason its exists is exclusively for speaking rights. So its not obsured for the ULA to form a technical group with right-wing independants...again its simply about speaking rights and its not a political allience.

Crux

1st March 2011, 04:32

A technical group will be easy to form. It dosent have to be done on an ideology basis, the only reason its exists is exclusively for speaking rights. So its not obsured for the ULA to form a technical group with right-wing independants...again its simply about speaking rights and its not a political allience.
Well, maybe but if there is an option not to include any right wingers that should be done, so as to form a more coherent group.

1st March 2011, 07:26

Well, maybe but if there is an option not to include any right wingers that should be done, so as to form a more coherent group.

Not only this, but also the point that we're not in the game of giving rightwing people a lot of speaking time if we can avoid it.

Jolly Red Giant

1st March 2011, 13:40

For clarification -

A Technical group is not ideologically based - it is purely a technical arrangement for speaking time, private members bills etc.

Any party with more than seven sitting members of parliament automatically has full rights in the parliament. Any group/party with less than seven does not. The ULA is challanging this convention.

Only one Technical group can exist and must comprise of at least seven members or a majority of the independent/small party members - in the case of the current Dail the Technical group must comprise of a minimum of 10 members out of the 19 available. In reality the Technical Group would probably need to comprise of all 19 deputies.

BOZG

1st March 2011, 16:56

Soldier of life

1st March 2011, 16:59

Good result for the ULA, 5 seats is more than I expected. Also a very good election for SF.

Can see Labour and FG having no problem going into coalition together, the first concern not being any policy differences, but how many ministries each will get. After FG try and attack the public sector, reduce welfare payments etc Labour's reaction will be critical. I can't see them lasting their full term.

I would like to see the ULA develop into a proper political force, but I won't hold my breath at the moment, Irish trots are renowned for their sectarianism. It's a shame they have such an anti-republican standpoint (although when it's expedient to ignore it they do..see Bree's joining of the ULA) because the potential is there for a genuine revolutionary party. Someway to go before this happens, but I hope it does. The left has much more in common than what divides us.

pastradamus

2nd March 2011, 04:50

Well, maybe but if there is an option not to include any right wingers that should be done, so as to form a more coherent group.

A five-seat ULA wont get much in the way of speaking time and I doubt there is enough left-wing seats there to form such a group - but that dosent really matter anyway. The ULA is the Allience here and not the technical group. The technical group is for speaking rights Period. So its in their interest to join this technical group so that they get a greater share of speaking time.

It doesent matter about the coherency of the group when the entire Daíl understand the purpose of it. Now, that being said many independents will naturally be of a left-wing presuasion and will voice simular opinions to the ULA within the group.

pastradamus

2nd March 2011, 04:55

Irish trots are renowned for their sectarianism..

Yes. Im delighted they got 5 seats but I just hope to fuck they dont start *****ing at each other again.

Crux

2nd March 2011, 21:01

Ireland

Elections see collapse of Fianna Fail, the traditional establishment party

www.socialistworld.net, 01/03/2011
website of the committee for a workers' international, CWI
Socialist Party wins two parliament seats
Kevin McLoughlin, Socialist Party (CWI Ireland) (http://www.socialistparty.net/), Dublin
http://www.socialistworld.net/img/20110301Grafik6703133917621927445.jpg
The general election in Ireland was historic but not for the reasons being stressed by the would-be new government partners of Fine Gael and Labour. It is that true both parties achieved unprecedented successes at the polls but these are pyrrhic and temporary victories.
The election was historic mainly because it saw the near collapse of Fianna Fail, the dominant party of the capitalist establishment in Ireland since the foundation of the state and one of the most successful capitalist parties in Europe over the last eighty years. The election results are also extremely significant because it marked the emergence of the United Left Alliance, which won five seats.
The Socialist Party, who initiated the process that led to the formation of the United Left Alliance, got two TDs (members of the Dail – the Irish parliament) elected. Clare Daly was elected for the first time to the Dail in the Dublin North constituency (with 7,513 first preference votes or 15.2%). Joe Higgins (http://www.joehiggins.eu/) was returned to the Dail representing Dublin West (8,084 or 19%). Both excellent results also represent the outlook of many working class people throughout the country, who see Socialist Party TDs as representatives of the working class generally not just for their particular constituencies.

http://www.socialistworld.net/img/article/2011-03-01Grafik1171510882550925384.jpg
In Cork North Central, Socialist Party candidate Mick Barry had an outstanding campaign, polling 4,803 (9.2%) first preference votes, nearly three times the vote he got in 2007. This puts the Socialist Party in a very strong position to challenge for a Dail seat whenever the next general election takes place.
The party also has a very good platform to challenge in Dublin South West, where our candidate Mick Murphy got 2,461 votes or 5.25%. In the Dublin Mid West seat, Rob Connolly got 622 or 1.5%. In Laois Offaly, Ray Fitzpatrick got 561 or 0.8%. In Dublin North East, Brian Greene got 869 or 2%. Carlow Kilkenny saw Conor MacLiam get 1135 or 1.5% and finally in Limerick City, Socialist Party candidate Cian Prendiville got 721 or 1.7%.
We stood more candidates than ever before and in Dublin Mid West, Carlow Kilkenny, Laois Offaly and Limerick, our comrades where standing for the first time in a general election. The support base of the Socialist Party has been strengthened in all of these areas as a result.

http://www.socialistworld.net/img/article/2011-03-01Grafik4533573960966854323.jpg Irish Times, 28/2/2011

The United Left Alliance (ULA) is comprised of the Socialist Party, the People Before Profit Alliance, the Workers and Unemployed Action Group (Tipperary) and the independent socialist group in Sligo. The three other ULA TDs elected were Joan Collins (PBPA) in Dublin South Central, with a first preference vote of 6,574 or 12.9%, Richard Boyd Barrett (PBPA/SWP), in Dun Laoghaire, with 6,206 or 10.95% and Seamus Healy (WUAG) with 8,818 or 21.3%. The ULA stood in eleven of the twelve Dublin constituencies and got 38,808 first preference votes or 7.6% of the total vote in those constituencies.
Fianna Fail meltdown in the midst of crisis

This election took place in the context of a profound crisis in society and, in particular, was framed by the intervention of the EU/IMF, last year, and the austerity deal that the outgoing Fianna Fail and Green coalition government agreed with them, last November.
The collapse in the vote of Fianna Fail mirrors the collapse of the Irish economy and shows how much the authority and base of the capitalist establishment is being undermined. In 2007, Fianna Fail got 41.5% of the vote and seventy eight seats. In the 2011 elections counting is still to be fully concluded in three constituencies but it looks like Fianna Fail will this time get just 17% and possibly 20 seats, in total!
The hatred of the working class towards Fianna Fail could be felt on the door steps during the election campaign and, as expected, Fianna Fail was savaged on election day. It is an incredible statistic but Fianna Fail now have just one seat in Dublin (they had 20 seats in 2007) compared to the Socialist Party’s two and the ULA’s total of four! Two years ago, the Socialist Party took Fianna Fail’s sole MEP seat in the capital, as well. Fianna Fail now faces possible extinction in the cities and urban areas. The Greens were not spared either and went from six TDs to zero.
Official opposition parties get ‘loan’ of votes

The main beneficiaries in these elections were Fine Gael (36% up 8.8%), Labour (19.4% up 9.3%) and Sinn Fein (9.9% up 3%). Fine Gael will probably end up with 76 seats, Labour will have around 37 TDs and Sinn Fein 14 or so. In the context of the swing to these “official” Dail opposition parties, the success of the Socialist Party and the ULA in getting 5 elected was very significant.
There are 166 TDs in total in the Dail, with 84 enough to make up a working majority. Fine Gael and Labour have been coalition partners on many occasions previously but have been out of office for the last 14 years. It was always likely that they would form the new government but in the middle of the campaign they began attacking each other, to try to maximise their respective votes and therefore their respective strengths and influence in a future coalition government.
Labour said Fine Gael were intent on imposing vicious austerity and that people should vote for Labour to stop this and that they would be a restraining hand on Fine Gael in government. The idea that Labour is anti-austerity is a cruel joke. However, Labour’s propaganda had a certain effect in pushing some people towards Labour in, hope against hope, that they might make a difference. This put a certain squeeze on the Socialist Party and other left candidates.
Labour fails to fully seize opportunities due to shift to right

Compared to the 2007 election, Labour did well but in reality this election demonstrated their inability to seize the opportunities that were posed because of their support for the capitalist market and the EU/IMF bail-out.
Some opinion polls in the middle of 2010 put Labour ahead of the rest of the main parties, on more than 30%, and indicated that they could become the biggest party. The main central poster that Labour produced at the start of the campaign declared “Gilmore for Taoiseach”, referring to their hope that their leader, Eamon Gilmore, could emerge as the new prime minister. By the end of the campaign, however, these posters were a reminder of Labour’s failure to reach this goal.
The key turning point for Labour came quickly after the EU/IMF bail-out with their acceptance of the basic terms and parameters for the austerity outlined. Since then, Labour’s polling declined steadily. They may have recovered marginally in the last couple of days of the campaign, on the basis of fears that Fine Gael could get an overall majority, but that was marginal - their bubble had burst.
What kind of new government?

Thirteen Independent TDs were elected, including a number who are rightwing. While there has been some media talk that Fine Gael could form a minority government with the support of some of these independents, such an administration would be unacceptably unstable from the point of view of the Irish capitalist class, who need a vicious programme of austerity implemented.
Fianna Fail is not an option as a coalition partner for Fine Gael, at this point, because they are so toxic, though that might be an arrangement that may be considered in the future.
The overwhelmingly likelihood is that Fine Gael and Labour will agree a programme for government in the next week or so. There may be some posturing on issues during negotiations between the two parties, with even banging of the table by Labour. But, as a saying in Irish politics goes, “Labour wrestles with its conscience but Labour always wins”. Agreement between Fine Gael and Labour is likely because of pressure from the capitalist class and because the politicians in both parties want to be in power.
They will be an administration of austerity that will become unpopular quite quickly. Fianna Fail has desperately tried to claim that they could recover just as Fine Gael recovered from a terrible election result in 2002. The continuing crisis is likely to put in tatters the base of support for both Fine Gael and Labour over the next months and years, just as it did to Fianna Fail and the Greens.
Economic crisis will worsen

The new government will have to go straight away to the EU/IMF to try to deliver a renegotiation of the terms and conditions of the EU/IMF deal. That is possible but certainly not guaranteed. They may get some changes but they will not be able to overcome the economic crisis or the prospects of national bankruptcy.
Investment in the Irish economy dropped by 31%, last year. This type of collapse or strike of investment combined with the draconian austerity programme due over the next four years, are likely to create a deflationary spiral that will puncture any chance of paying back the enormous debts that have been placed around necks of Irish people. Bankruptcy beckons!
A Fine Gael and Labour government may have a huge majority but it will not be stable because of the severity of the economic crisis and because of the effects that the austerity is and will have in destroying people’s living standards and lives.
According to the Memorandum of Understanding on the EU/IMF deal, on top of the €6 billion in cuts, in the first year these institutions want, amongst other things, a review (cuts) of pay agreements covering the private sector; a review (cuts) in social welfare/unemployment payments; a ‘Home Tax’; cuts in employment and pensions in the public service and the preparation for Water Charges (a tax). The basis is being created for a massive revolt.

http://www.socialistworld.net/img/article/2011-03-01Grafik930326588169701281.jpg

The campaign

Standing in nine areas, with limited resources, meant that the Socialist Party election campaigns had different levels of intensity. In the priority areas of Dublin North, Dublin West and Cork North Central, the party went all-out, while the campaigns in the other areas were more limited. However mass postering, leafleting and canvassing were a feature of all our campaigns.
In our election priority areas, we did a full door to door canvass of all homes in the constituencies, including some ‘double canvassing’. We supplemented the initial mass postering of constituencies with additional billboard posters, and posters with slogans and points addressing the key issues that came up on the doorsteps. In the key areas for the party, houses had three different leaflets delivered: an initial Socialist Party leaflet outlining the basis of our challenge in the election, our four page manifesto (http://www.socialistworld.net/m/2011-03-01joe%20higgins%20manifesto_Layout%201.pdf) and then final leaflets that addressed key local issues and, in particular, the false claims that Labour would fight against austerity in the next government, an issue that came up on doorsteps.
We found a mixture of responses on the doorsteps. The anger at Fianna Fail was tangible. The support for our position in the traditional working class districts was strong. In other areas, many people agreed with our analysis of the situation in Ireland and what should be done but they were also hesitant about committing their vote.
The establishment and the media successfully injected fear about the consequences of not paying the bankers and big property builders’ debts. They claimed that the financial system and all credit lines would cease to operate and that there would be dis-investment from the Irish economy. This had a certain effect in pushing some people behind Fine Gael but also some behind Labour, placing a bit of a squeeze on people who were previously inclined to vote for the Socialist Party or other genuine left candidates. Dealing with this pressure from Labour was an important issue in the closing stages of our election campaign.

http://www.socialistworld.net/img/article/2011-03-01Grafik4189334838351219600.jpg
Within the United Left Alliance there are some differences regarding how to respond to Labour, mainly between the Socialist Party and the SWP. It was reported by an Irish Independent journalist who was out on the hustings with Richard Boyd Barrett that the candidate responded to some voters who said they were voting Labour by indicating that he was giving his second preference to the Labour Party, with whom he was involved in a life and death battle for the last seat in Dun Laoghaire. Such an approach only serves to legitimise people voting Labour and re-enforces illusions that may exist in Labour instead of cutting across them.
In our final election leaflets (http://www.socialistworld.net/m/2011-03-01JoeHiggins_AFinalMessageFromJoeHiggins_2011-02-23.pdf), we took up sharply Labour and the role they would play. In Dublin West, we produced an additional poster that went up three days before polling, which said: "Like Fine Gael, Labour accepts IMF Austerity - CUTS WILL DESTROY LIVING STANDARDS & JOBS" (http://www.socialistworld.net/m/2011-03-01JoeHiggins_LastPoster_2011-02-22.pdf). We believe this approach, clearly showing the nature of Labour, helped us resist pressure from Labour and actually won support from Labour voters, as well.
Building the opposition and an alternative - Sinn Fein or a socialist United Left Alliance?

Sinn Fein may have just increased their share of the vote by 3% but they trebled their number of seats from 4, in 2007, to 14 in 2011. The momentum behind Sinn Fein particularly developed when their representative, Pearse Doherty, won a court case that forced the government to hold an outstanding by-election, in Donegal, in the latter party of 2010.
Doherty won the resulting by-election and then Sinn Fein’s five TDs opposed the EU/IMF intervention and austerity deal and used the Dail platform to skillfully oppose the last government’s budget in early December. It was clear that Sinn Fein were going to increase their number of TDs. This meant that Sinn Fein claims that they would be an opposition in the new Dail had credibility, which further added to their polling momentum.
The Socialist Party/ULA had a more difficult task. We were saying that if people elected us, we would be a fighting opposition and an alternative. We argued for a real alternative, that there was no solution based on the capitalist market, and outlined the need for democratic public ownership of the economy and socialist policies and planning.
The launching the ULA, in advance of the general election, was crucial. The profile it developed, and now the election of 5 ULA TDs, means that the opposition that will develop to the new government’s austerity policies can have a genuine left and working class reflection. The ULA has now as many TDs as did Sinn Fein when it went into the election. Clearly Sinn Fein is set to increase its support but the superficiality of its opposition to austerity measures will cut across its potential. In the North of Ireland, Sinn Fein is part of the governing Assembly Executive and has accepted cuts and is implementing them, as opposed to fighting the attacks from the Tory/Liberal Westminster government. In the South, Sinn Fein supported cuts in local councils. Such an approach will be a drag on Sinn Fein’s potential.
Crucially if the ULA fights on the key issues facing working people, and if it advocates a distinct left and socialist programme, it can offer a clearer way forward and could become the key force to represent the anger and radicalisation that will grip Irish society in the months and years ahead. Explosive potential is built into the situation for the ULA but particularly for the Socialist Party, which is a fighting, socialist alternative to the unprecedented crisis of Irish capitalism.

Gravedigger01

2nd March 2011, 22:13

Crux

2nd March 2011, 22:19

From what I here from comrades in ULA as well as figures like Joe Higgins the ULA is going to try and become an offical political party (rather than a loose alliance) and will try to recruit 2 independents TD's(Catherine Murphy is one name I heard.Thomas Pringle would also be on the cards. Not sure about John Halligan or Mick Wallace).
Maybe if it was in the other thread, but JRG mentioned is more likely to support the government then go ULA. Rumour has it he was even approached to stand for FG. In eitehr case he has openly said he might be ready to supportthe government. that ought to tell you just how left he is.

Die Neue Zeit

4th March 2011, 04:05

Economic meltdown sees left advance (http://www.cpgb.org.uk/article.php?article_id=1004300)

The ULA will hope to be at the centre of an extra-parliamentary movement against the cutbacks, writes Pat Corcoran

Last week’s Irish general election not only produced the expected turnaround among the main parties: it also saw a real advance among the tiny forces of the far left.

The United Left Alliance - made up of the Socialist Party and the Socialist Workers Party (the latter mostly standing under the SWP front, the People Before Profit Alliance), the Tipperary Workers and Unemployed Action Group (TWUAG), plus local groups and individuals - won five seats in the 166-member Dáil under Ireland’s proportional representation voting system.

The ULA candidates elected were Richard Boyd Barrett (SWP/PBPA), Joe Higgins and Clare Daly (SP), Joan Collins (PBPA and ex-SP), and Séamus Healy (ex-Lambertist, representing the TWUAG). Results achieved by the 18 ULA candidates ranged from 0.8% to 21.3% of first-preference votes.

Comrade Healey did best, with 8,818 votes (21.3%) in Tipperary South, while Joe Higgins, who is now obliged to resign his seat in the European parliament, did almost as well in Dublin West (8,084 or 19.0%). Comrade Daly won 7,513 first preferences (15.2%) in Dublin North, Joan Collins picked up 6,574 votes (12.9%) in Dublin South Central, and comrade Boyd Barrett managed 6,206 (10.9%) in Dún Laoghaire. Four other (unsuccessful) ULA candidates won more than five percent. Boyd Barrett’s election was significant in that he beat two very high-profile candidates to get the fourth seat in the constituency: Ivana Bacik, a sitting senator on the left of the Labour Party, and Mary Hanafin for Fianna Fáil - a member of the cabinet since 2004.

Joe Higgins said the five TDs would “work as a coherent, principled opposition”. While the “intention is to form a party”, he warned that “it’s not going to happen tomorrow morning”. However, the SP itself preferred to talk about the ULA in more general terms. According to the Committee for a Workers’ International, the ‘international’ run by the Socialist Party in England and Wales, the “profile developed” by the ULA, and then the election of the five TDs, “means that the opposition that will develop to the new government’s austerity policies can have a genuine left and working class reflection”. The ULA should advocate “a distinct left and socialist programme” and, the SP hopes, “could become the key force to represent the anger and radicalisation that will grip Irish society in the months and years ahead” (www.socialistworld.net, March 1).

For its part, the SWP in Ireland referred to the ULA as “a principled left that grows out of workers’ struggles rather than being an add-on to the republican tradition”. It “should engage in a process of open debate and discussion to lay the basis for a new leftwing party. That party should be a multi-tendency party, where the Socialist Workers Party work alongside the Socialist Party, the Workers Unemployed Action Group and independent socialists to build a genuine party of the left - while giving each other the freedom to debate and discuss their differences” (SWP newsletter, March 1). If the comrades are serious, this represents an advance on the SWP’s position during its Socialist Alliance turn in Britain, when it opposed any moves towards an SA party.

The CWI highlighted “differences” with the SWP during the election campaign over the left’s attitude to the Labour Party, which made big gains, increasing its representation from 20 to 37 TDs. The CWI notes that Richard Boyd Barrett “responded to some voters who said they were voting Labour by indicating that he was giving his second preference to the Labour Party, with whom he was involved in a life-and-death battle for the last seat in Dún Laoghaire. Such an approach only serves to legitimise people voting Labour and reinforces illusions that may exist in Labour instead of cutting across them.”

However, in its post-election bulletin the SWP seemed more concerned with Sinn Féin voters: “... the ULA will have to relate to those workers who voted Sinn Féin to show that, while this party uses left rhetoric, it will not break from capitalism. The ULA can welcome many who support Sinn Féin into struggle, but it must seek to expose - in a consistent and fraternal manner - the weakness that hides behind a left republican rhetoric.”

Like Labour, SF had an excellent election, gaining 10 seats. Among its 14 TDs, Gerry Adams topped the poll in Louth, while seats were unexpectedly won in Cork East, Meath West and Sligo-North Leitrim. In response to a question about a united left opposition, Adams said: “We’ll ... figure all of that out. I’ve always believed in cooperation.” He also invoked republican iconography: “Next Tuesday is the day that Bobby Sands started his hunger strike. Okay, so this isn’t just about who wins what and who tops the poll and who doesn’t. This is about actual sacrifice in terms of ongoing reconquest of Ireland by the people of Ireland.”

However, what really differentiates SF from Labour at this stage is its call for a default on the non-sovereign debt and its support for some kind of strike action against the cutbacks. Further adding to its left credentials, Sinn Féin says all its TDs will only take the equivalent of the average industrial wage. However, it is hardly a working class party and is quite capable of a rapid swing to the right.

By contrast, Labour still enjoys trade union support. Unite called on it to “resist the lure of coalition with Fine Gael” and opt instead to lead a “game-changing” opposition coalition of the left, with “the prospect of a left-led government in the short term”. According to Unite, the dividing line is “now between the left and the right” and there should be “an invigorated left opposition” of 60 TDs, “with Labour at the head, Sinn Féin, the United Left Alliance and other independents in support”. Instead of joining Fine Gael in a coalition government, “Labour should look to the interests of the nation and working people”.

However, talks between Labour and Fine Gael look certain to produce a coalition agreement. The economic meltdown meant that the parties of the outgoing coalition, Fianna Fáil and the Green Party, were pulverised at the polls, with FF losing no fewer than 58 seats (it now has a mere 20, its worst ever return) and the Greens being wiped out altogether. Labour wants less savage cuts (with anaesthetic) and says the better off should pay more in tax.

The ULA will hope to be at the centre of an extra-parliamentary movement against the cutbacks, although to date it has never succeeded in mobilising more than 1,500 people to its protest events. The likely visit to Ireland of the British queen in June also represents an opportunity which should not be missed. An internationalist protest against the visit could be organised - one which opposes cuts north and south in Ireland and links into the fightbacks in Britain.

Jolly Red Giant

4th March 2011, 18:49

LewisQ

5th March 2011, 11:16

Any idea why Bree did so poorly (relatively speaking), JRG?

I wonder how committed Healy is to the alliance. He's got his own power-base down in Tipperary. Disappointing to see CWI taking gratuitous pot-shots at the SWP in their electoral analysis, but I suppose old habits die hard. Here's hoping the Progressive Socialist Alliance or United Left Party or whatever is formally constituted on a sound, left-wing and workable basis soon.

Die Neue Zeit

5th March 2011, 16:55

There is a difference between the Socialist Party's interpretation of the AIW and Sinn Fein's.

SP representatives take the AIW and only vouched for and receipted expenses. All the SP reps are full-time public representatives.

SF representatives take the AIW from the salary but keep all the expenses which can
amount to between €35,000-€65,000 a year. Furthermore several of the SF representatives have outside income, e.g. Adams has a substantial income from book sales.

What's the difference expense-wise again? :confused:

*Assuming* (Ass out of you and me if necessary :D ) that all Sinn Fein rep expenses are reasonable, it would be the same as those of SP representatives. My beef, naturally, would be more on the moonlighting you mentioned at the end.

Jolly Red Giant

5th March 2011, 19:35

What's the difference expense-wise again? :confused:

*Assuming* (Ass out of you and me if necessary :D ) that all Sinn Fein rep expenses are reasonable, it would be the same as those of SP representatives. My beef, naturally, would be more on the moonlighting you mentioned at the end.
Expenses are partly based on location - travelling and overnight etc.

Between 2005-2008 Martin Ferris claimed €277,000 in expenses. Ferris also got into trouble in 2003 for continuing to use a medical card for free medical treatment after his election. In 2010 Ferris was among 110 politicians who names appeared on a list for being overpaid expenses - Ferris claimed it wasn't his fault and that he wasn't overpaid.

Despite being based in Dublin, Aengus O'Snodaigh claimed €46,000 in expenses in 2007. He claimed €14,000 in travelling expenses alone in 2008 despite living within a couple of miles of the Dail. A Fine Gael representative from the same constituency claimed half the amount.

In 2009 the four Sinn Fein TD's claimed over €212,000 in expenses.

Jolly Red Giant

5th March 2011, 22:02

Any idea why Bree did so poorly (relatively speaking), JRG?
Andropov would be better able to answer that one than me. Elections are about momentum and SF clearly had the momentum in Sligo being the best placed to win a seat.

I wonder how committed Healy is to the alliance. He's got his own power-base down in Tipperary.
Time will tell - the logical next step would be to establish and publically launch the ULA as a party. However, there are a significant number of aspects that would have to be ironed out between the component parts before that happens - one of the most important being the democratic structures that by necessity should recognise those affiliated to component groups and those non-aligned - with the clear understanding that no one group could be allowed to dominate. The policy programme, and the mechanism for deciding it is a further element as would the right of all component parts to also publicise their own programme.

There is no guarantee that a left party will be established from the election. I certainly hope it happens and I do not know any member of teh CWI who does not - but wishing it to happen does not make it a foregone conclusion.

Disappointing to see CWI taking gratuitous pot-shots at the SWP in their electoral analysis, but I suppose old habits die hard.
The SP/CWI did not take any gratuitous potshots at the SWP. One vital aspect of left politics in the current political situation is a willingness to be open about differences and a willingness to debate these differences in a firm but comradely fashion. It is absolutely vital that the political positions of the various groups are analysed and criticised if necessary (and the debates within any new left party will, by necessity, at times very sharp). If people are not willing to make constructive criticism and others are not willing to take that criticisim onboard or defend their position then it is going to be a very difficult process to build a left party.

In relation to the specifics - the SWP were 'soft' on the LP during the election. Boyd-Barrett said he would be giving his second preference vote to Eamon Gilmore, the leader of the LP, "because he (RBB) wants to build a left-wing alliance". The LP in Ireland is a thoroughly right-wing neo-liberal bourgeois formation - to suggest it should be part of a 'left-alliance' is daft in the extreme and politically naive (or stupd). The SWP have been pushing this line right through the election and the SP/CWI are quite correct to question the political basis for such a position.

It is interesting to see the approach of the SWP in its latest article on the election -
Labour, of course, could refuse the poisoned chalice of coalition - as a small number of its left wing members are advocating. It could join the opposition and allow a government composed of Fine Gael and rightwing independents to self-destruct in a short time. Or even force FG and FF together to bring about a real alignment of Irish politics.

But its leadership are totally plugged into the political and corporate establishment and will jump at the slightest opportunity of exercising power.

These comments would have been more appropriate during the election campaign rather than after it - and it poses the question as to why the line has changed somewhat in a few short days. But even this statement is politically inaccurate - it suggests that if the LP did not join the coalition then we would have a real left-right alignment in Irish politics. This is not the case. The re-alignment has already begun to take place as the three establishment parties (Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and Labour) back the IMF/ECB austerity programme and the ULA and Sinn Fein oppose it. Having the LP in opposition would bring a left-right realignment no closer than having FF in opposition.

Here's hoping the Progressive Socialist Alliance or United Left Party or whatever is formally constituted on a sound, left-wing and workable basis soon.
Absolutely - however, it would be a mistake to think that the building of such a party with happen without the odd hiccup here and there. Indeed it is the hiccups that will facilitiate the thrashing out of the various political ideas that are needed to take the movement forward.