Ben Seattle
3rd February 2011, 22:18
(I posted this on the "Protests in Egypt" thread,
but concluded that it may deserve its own thread)
Excerpts from: "Egypt at the crossroads"
(I have added boldface, italic, etc)
http://mg.co.za/article/2011-02-03-e...he-crossroads/ (http://www.anonym.to/?http://mg.co.za/article/2011-02-03-egypt-at-the-crossroads/)
These developments point to a planned strategy by the military to regain control of Egyptian politics and to ensure the persistence of the status quo -- with some concessions to the people and the opposition. Clearly, the military has decided that Mubarak has become a burden, and is easing him out. But, his being from among their ranks, the army would prefer not to humiliate him and hang him out to dry. Instead, they will keep him as president, while Suleiman begins a negotiation process with opposition parties. The regime hopes that the beginning of the negotiation process will end the protests, that fatigue, the threat of a food crisis, and the attacks on protesters by NDP thugs will force demonstrators off the streets and back to their homes and jobs. Further, if the clashes between protesters and NDP supporters continue, the army will use that as an excuse to crush the protests, claiming it to be in the interests of law and order. And, to finally ensure that the protests end, Suleiman has already announced that no dialogue with the opposition can begin until protests are halted, effectively making the end of protests a precondition of negotiations.
[...]
The military chiefs have played their cards very well. When police were pulled back from the demonstrations -- after having caused numerous deaths -- the soldiers moved in, but did nothing to quell the protests. Indeed, the impression from protesters was that the army was there to protect the people. Military chiefs have ensured that the military took no action against protesters, cultivating the image of the army as benevolent protectors -- which could serve it well now and during the negotiations process. It is possible, however, that as the violence against protesters continue, some members of the middle and lower ranks of the army will join the protesters.
The end game for the Egyptian military is one in terms of which it can strike a deal with the emerging power-brokers -- ElBaradei, and other opposition figures -- where the political influence and economic interests of the military are protected under a new dispensation, and where it is able to maintain a direct relationship with American and European military structures. This will ensure that, even if democracy emerges in Egypt, the military is able to maintain its domestic power, and continue to fulfil the foreign agenda to which it is committed. To ensure that the military will continue fulfilling such an agenda, Western - especially American -- officials have been in close contact with the new vice-president, new prime minister and other leaders of the military over the past few weeks.
The Egyptian regime and the military in particular from the presidency of Anwar Sadat, have fulfilled Western, especially American, objectives in the region. In particular, the Camp David accord between Egypt and Israel, and the subsequent role of Egypt has ensured that Israel has been well served. Indeed, as a result of that accord, Israel has been able to decrease its military spending and to rely on Egypt to, for example, maintain the siege on Gaza, a key recent tactic of Israel against the Palestinians. If ElBaradei becomes the new president after Mubarak, the army will be able to rely on him to support -- even if uncomfortably -- this agenda. If the military loses its political influence, and becomes completely subject to civilian authority -- an option that it will fight against -- the balance of power in the region insofar as the Palestinian-Israel issue is concerned could change dramatically.
but concluded that it may deserve its own thread)
Excerpts from: "Egypt at the crossroads"
(I have added boldface, italic, etc)
http://mg.co.za/article/2011-02-03-e...he-crossroads/ (http://www.anonym.to/?http://mg.co.za/article/2011-02-03-egypt-at-the-crossroads/)
These developments point to a planned strategy by the military to regain control of Egyptian politics and to ensure the persistence of the status quo -- with some concessions to the people and the opposition. Clearly, the military has decided that Mubarak has become a burden, and is easing him out. But, his being from among their ranks, the army would prefer not to humiliate him and hang him out to dry. Instead, they will keep him as president, while Suleiman begins a negotiation process with opposition parties. The regime hopes that the beginning of the negotiation process will end the protests, that fatigue, the threat of a food crisis, and the attacks on protesters by NDP thugs will force demonstrators off the streets and back to their homes and jobs. Further, if the clashes between protesters and NDP supporters continue, the army will use that as an excuse to crush the protests, claiming it to be in the interests of law and order. And, to finally ensure that the protests end, Suleiman has already announced that no dialogue with the opposition can begin until protests are halted, effectively making the end of protests a precondition of negotiations.
[...]
The military chiefs have played their cards very well. When police were pulled back from the demonstrations -- after having caused numerous deaths -- the soldiers moved in, but did nothing to quell the protests. Indeed, the impression from protesters was that the army was there to protect the people. Military chiefs have ensured that the military took no action against protesters, cultivating the image of the army as benevolent protectors -- which could serve it well now and during the negotiations process. It is possible, however, that as the violence against protesters continue, some members of the middle and lower ranks of the army will join the protesters.
The end game for the Egyptian military is one in terms of which it can strike a deal with the emerging power-brokers -- ElBaradei, and other opposition figures -- where the political influence and economic interests of the military are protected under a new dispensation, and where it is able to maintain a direct relationship with American and European military structures. This will ensure that, even if democracy emerges in Egypt, the military is able to maintain its domestic power, and continue to fulfil the foreign agenda to which it is committed. To ensure that the military will continue fulfilling such an agenda, Western - especially American -- officials have been in close contact with the new vice-president, new prime minister and other leaders of the military over the past few weeks.
The Egyptian regime and the military in particular from the presidency of Anwar Sadat, have fulfilled Western, especially American, objectives in the region. In particular, the Camp David accord between Egypt and Israel, and the subsequent role of Egypt has ensured that Israel has been well served. Indeed, as a result of that accord, Israel has been able to decrease its military spending and to rely on Egypt to, for example, maintain the siege on Gaza, a key recent tactic of Israel against the Palestinians. If ElBaradei becomes the new president after Mubarak, the army will be able to rely on him to support -- even if uncomfortably -- this agenda. If the military loses its political influence, and becomes completely subject to civilian authority -- an option that it will fight against -- the balance of power in the region insofar as the Palestinian-Israel issue is concerned could change dramatically.