Without an Ideology and Political Party/Leadership, It's Not Promising

[Fulanito de Tal]

People in Arab countries are upset. Tunisia has ousted their president, Egypt is showing potential, Jordan and Yemen are protesting strongly. However, I have asked on RevLeft (http://www.revleft.com/vb/ideology-and-political-t149071/index.html) and looked over articles on Al Jazeera, World Socialist Web Site, and Cubadebate and have found no strong political party with an ideology leading these protests. Unless there is one that I do not know about, I predict that these "revolutions" will not be revolutions at all, but just a change of faces and puppet governments.

The Russian Revolution had the Bolsheviks, the Chinese Revolution had the Communist Party of China, and Cuba had the 26 of July Movement which became the Communist Party of Cuba. Regardless of how these movements turned out in the long run, they were able to cause actual revolutions after their wars/uprisings because they were organized, had an ideology and leadership to follow. However, since I have not heard of what the Arab people plan to do after/if they win the conflict, I believe the movement will die out and the US take control of the region again.

If I were someone in the US directing US reaction to the Arab region, I would start sending troops in order to "protect" the region. The troops would not really attack the people, but they would be there as a show of force. If possible, I would lower the supply of necessary commodities like food and medicine, conduct a psychological operation to have the people think that the protests are causing the lack of supplies do to the drop of people working, and just wear the protests out. People are gonna have to eat. If things get rough, I would setup a false flag attack and find a way to use some force to get my tasks accomplished, not all out invasion, but secure certain locations like power plants, communication stations, main roadways, and trade ports. To end the protests, I would agree to a compromise in which the current administration loses power, do a little fake reform, and rig an election so no matter who wins, the US is still in control. And of course, to finish it off, an Obama speech and a visit from Hilary Clinton.

Pladao! Where do I sign my contract, US Department of the State?

Seriously though, what are you thoughts?

[Ligeia]

If I were whoever wants to stop the people from doing something substantial, I'd send someone who the most people there would listen to, someone or someones which still have credibility amongst the population. They could tell them to remain peaceful all the way long and better resort to tactics like staying night and day at the central places and doing marches while the media would demonize those groups while telling such things as they only cause problems and so on....so as others wouldn't join or try to persuade others to stop.

I remember Mexico 2006 where there was an electoral fraud, and millions marched and installed themselves on the central places and stayed there for very long, organized themselves wonderfully and in solidarity. After a month, it just died down. And there were enough people chanting stuff like "revolution is the solution", people who wanted thngs to change,...but they were told all the time to remain peaceful. Unlike Egypt there was really no violence at all, nobody died, almost no criminal activities.

Maybe, it's not really comparable but it kind of reminded me a bit of this situation.

I think there needs to be a real plan not only for afterwards when they reached their goal to topple Mubarak, but a plan that is considerate to why they actually don't want Mubarak and hence, demand the opposites of whatever bad conditions they are suffering.
And also think about strategies to master the actual situation...think about what their adversaries will do now.
Problem is how do they coordinate all this together? Do they need to form a movement?
I guess, even if they form a movement of some sort with some kind of guiding principles, that's still no guarantee for anything. It really depends on the content of whatever they want and plan (no matter if they give it a name or not).

[manic expression]

I disagree; even without ideology and leadership, it is most promising (not to mention inspiring). October needed February, and 1917 needed 1905. That's not to say they're the same, but regardless this is a giant first step forward, no matter how it ends. The workers of the middle east are beginning to gain confidence and an understanding of the obstacles ahead of them. That, alone, is what makes this so important.

A vanguard would increase the potential for revolutionary change by leaps and bounds I agree, but the absence of a clear vanguard is what makes this all the more incredible. IMO, intense struggle has a way of filtering out the fakers from the real militants, and the Egyptian workers will see who their friends and enemies are. If the Egyptian workers continue their momentum, a vanguard will show itself in one form or another.

Also, if the US invaded, it would set the whole middle east aflame. The imperialists aren't going to take that risk unless it's absolutely necessary.

Ligeia: That's an interesting comparison, but remember in Mexico the protests were for and about one single candidate who didn't have the guts to stand up to his capitalist masters. That's why it petered out. This is very different, ElBaradei is not at the center of this struggle, he is not its cause, no matter what influence he might have.

[GPDP]

I wanna agree with manic expression here, though at the same time I am a little concerned that the lack of disciplined organization puts the movement at risk of being co-opted or otherwise crushed.

That's not to say what they have accomplished thus far isn't amazing, and that no matter what happens, progress on behalf of the workers of Egypt and the ME has undeniably been made, but the starry-eyed idealist in me hopes they go all the way, and I'm just not sure they can do that unless they organize around a coherent platform.

[Ligeia]

Ligeia: That's an interesting comparison, but remember in Mexico the protests were for and about one single candidate who didn't have the guts to stand up to his capitalist masters. That's why it petered out. This is very different, ElBaradei is not at the center of this struggle, he is not its cause, no matter what influence he might have.
I agree, but many things which have been said and seen in the practical way, reminded me of it. Not so much the content of the struggles itself. (Though it wasn't just about a candidate, I'd say it was also about much more, e.g. corruption, democracy, hope for real "changes"...and so on but all projected on to him, that's for sure.)

Anyways, it seems this will go on in its very own historical ways.
Hopefully for the better.

[Proukunin]

maybe a vanguard will grow out of these protests, maybe the reactionary protesters will influence the workers and students to form some kind of leftist ideology.

hopefully they do not give up.

[Rusty Shackleford]

dont forget the declaration of the 14th of January Front on the 20th in Tunisia.


Basically, it is the formation of a popular front including Nasserists, Communists, Nationalists, and Baathists.

if the "rule" is true that what happens in tunisia carries over to egypt, a popular front may form there.

All the focus has been on ElBaradei and MB
no discussion about the other parties there may be something in formation.

the people have organized their own forms of defense right form the start. Neighborhood defense groups, even a human shield for the museum.

At this point, the people may end up radicalizing. The push was for Mubarak to step down yesterday. he basically taunted them.

Pro-Mubarak forces (probably supported by the police and NDP) are startign to come out of the woodwork.

If they do not take a strong stance, chances are, mubaraks power will be restored and a similar outburst will happen again this year.

[RedTrackWorker]

I agree with Manic_expression that the events are promising and inspiring without leadership. And a big reason they are so promising is that they are events that lay the foundation for building the world party of socialist revolution. Even if such a party is not built in time to lead these revolutions to victory, these brave fighters have change the course of world politics for the coming period. Imperialism's grip is weakened, and the ideas of imperialism and its cynicism about the possibility of change are being shaken from people's minds all over the world like the cobwebs they are.
I think these events demand from all those committed to revolution the most careful reflection of our program, theory, method and world-view.

[Quorina]

Mubarak's resignation will most certainly create a power vacuum since, like it has been said, there is no official or even unofficial face behind this latest revolt in Egypt. ElBaradei has offered to lead a transitional government, but I don't think he is trusted much by the Egyptian people since he has been out of the country for so long and I don't blame them. He served imperialist interests in the UN and could very well be backed by the imperial powers that be. Either way, I haven't really seen his face in the media for a few days so I'm not even sure what has happened with him. Perhaps the Egyptian people have seen him for what he could really be and he has, well, disappeared for the time being.

Now, even with the power vacuum that is surely to come, there are many faces behind this latest revolt. Yes, it's been said that the banned Muslim brotherhood is partaking in this, but there are others, too. From what I've seen and heard, the main complaint on the streets in Cairo and other Egyptian cities are the lack of employment and the disparity between the wealthy and the poor. I'm not sure if this is accurate or not, but I've heard that Mubarak rakes in millions per year while some of the poorest Egyptians only get $2 per day. Absolutely despicable if you ask me. Quite a large percentage of the Egyptian population is under the age of 25 and even a larger number of them are unemployed. The future for them looks rather bleak.

There is some of a leftist element to this revolt here and there, but for the most part, they simply want more jobs, more security, and a brighter, more promising future, which they don't see themselves getting with Mubarak. They won't get it with most other leaders, either.

Unfortunately, it's a situation where they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. Hopefully someone that has the Egyptian people's interests at heart comes forth soon and offers to lead some sort of transitional government. Even better, if they could revolt against Mubarak as well as against wage slavery, well, that would be even better :tt1: