Are economic conditions paving the way for a revolution?

[ComradeG1967]

I know that sounds optimistic, but seriously consider the fact that we have recently experienced what was technically the worst recession ever, we have a Thatcherite government in power and it has been predicted that living standards are likely to fall this year with a hike in fuel prices (which increases the cost of pretty much everything), VAT and the prospect of inflation looming thanks to 'quantative easing'.

Additionally, the public's confidence in MPs is at an all time low thanks to their expenses, voting themselves pay increases and generally being out of touch with the public. With the Tories (and their coalition partners) cutting welfare benefits at a time when people are really beginning to suffer, there is scope for a radical Marxist/Socialist party to really achieve success.

I think this is easily the best opportunity since the early eighties, and if things pan out as badly as some are suggesting, possibly since the 1930s to really achieve our dream. What do you think?

[thesadmafioso]

Though my knowledge of British politics is limited, I think it is safe to say that the possibility of an actual revolution is minimal at best. The reality is that the current political structure still retains substantial support and that popular support for outright revolution is predictably minimal. Yes, Britain has experienced a fair share of popular revolt against some imposed austerity measures, but it is hardly enough for such large scale action to be considered a reality. It is unrealistic to think in such a manner, and it really underwrites the cause of leftism if we presume revolutionary conditions to be right around the corner. All that is accomplished by this sort of thought is a deluded mental state which distracts the movement from the actual issues at hand.

[ExUnoDisceOmnes]

It may be, but I don't know if the Communist/Socialist/Anarchist (I don't know who "our" is...) movement has enough support, nor am I sure whether we would be able to act fast enough. It will definitely be easier for the left to spread its ideals though...

[ComradeG1967]

Though my knowledge of British politics is limited, I think it is safe to say that the possibility of an actual revolution is minimal at best. The reality is that the current political structure still retains substantial support and that popular support for outright revolution is predictably minimal. Yes, Britain has experienced a fair share of popular revolt against some imposed austerity measures, but it is hardly enough for such large scale action to be considered a reality. It is unrealistic to think in such a manner, and it really underwrites the cause of leftism if we presume revolutionary conditions to be right around the corner. All that is accomplished by this sort of thought is a deluded mental state which distracts the movement from the actual issues at hand.

I disagree. Look at the turnout at the last General Election - 65%. Many of those who voted in Glasgow were simply desperate to endorse the Labour government as they feared a new Thatcherite Tory government, which is exactly what we got. In fact I believe that might ultimately lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom, and certainly in Scotland there's scope for a proper Socialist government - the SSP had six MSPs elected to the Scottish Parliament back in 2003. But I digress.

Most people are disillusioned with all mainstream politicians, and rightly so. When I talk about a 'revolution', and I should have made this clear, I include the possibility of a political revolution via the current electoral system. I honestly believe that people will want real change and will support a genuine Socialist movement - this could include the possibility of the Labour Party rejecting the 'third way' and returning to the party is once was.


It may be, but I don't know if the Communist/Socialist/Anarchist (I don't know who "our" is...) movement has enough support, nor am I sure whether we would be able to act fast enough. It will definitely be easier for the left to spread its ideals though...

Personally I see myself as a Communist, but I think all this theoretical factionalism is what has caused the radical left to regress and decline. I would support any broadly Socialist movement if it was likely to further the implementation of my ideals, which I'd like to think are pretty much the same as everybodies' on here - social justice and equality brought about by public ownership of the means of production.

[thesadmafioso]

I disagree. Look at the turnout at the last General Election - 65%. Many of those who voted in Glasgow were simply desperate to endorse the Labour government as they feared a new Thatcherite Tory government, which is exactly what we got. In fact I believe that might ultimately lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom, and certainly in Scotland there's scope for a proper Socialist government - the SSP had six MSPs elected to the Scottish Parliament back in 2003. But I digress.

Most people are disillusioned with all mainstream politicians, and rightly so. When I talk about a 'revolution', and I should have made this clear, I include the possibility of a political revolution via the current electoral system. I honestly believe that people will want real change and will support a genuine Socialist movement - this could include the possibility of the Labour Party rejecting the 'third way' and returning to the party is once was.


Many people living withing the confines of developed capitalistic society have indeed become disillusioned with the system, and current economic conditions are only adding to this. But the fact of the matter is that leftism is devoid of any real party structure to properly channel this emotional sentiment, and that much of it is left unused because of such. The conditions may be more open than usual to revolution, but the fact still remains that no party apparatus exists to capitalize on this. Many people are devoid of the proper knowledge to really consider action in a revolutionary direction as well, only furthering matters.

Some political change may come out of this, but the conditions still are decent enough for enough people in power that the possibility of any real revolutionary change still remains questionable.

[ComradeG1967]

Many people living withing the confines of developed capitalistic society have indeed become disillusioned with the system, and current economic conditions are only adding to this. But the fact of the matter is that leftism is devoid of any real party structure to properly channel this emotional sentiment, and that much of it is left unused because of such. The conditions may be more open than usual to revolution, but the fact still remains that no party apparatus exists to capitalize on this. Many people are devoid of the proper knowledge to really consider action in a revolutionary direction as well, only furthering matters.

Some political change may come out of this, but the conditions still are decent enough for enough people in power that the possibility of any real revolutionary change still remains questionable.

Perhaps you're right. It just disgusts me how wage and wealth inequality seems to be ever broadening and yet people do not seem to understand why. It's ironic that things may have to get worse for people to wake up and fight for what's rightfully theirs.

[thesadmafioso]

Perhaps you're right. It just disgusts me how wage and wealth inequality seems to be ever broadening and yet people do not seem to understand why. It's ironic that things may have to get worse for people to wake up and fight for what's rightfully theirs.

I agree, it is quite the annoying and difficult situation to be in.

[Rafiq]

Here's a thought: Don't base conditions for capitalism as a need for Revolution.

It is possible conditions can get better like they did in the 20's or the 50's.

That doesn't make it better though. Remember, conditions for slavery were better in the 1800's opposed to the 1600's.

[Savage]

I don't think this recession will prompt any successful revolutions in the developed world, the working class action in Greece, Britain, Portugal, Italy, France, Spain etc (whilst admirable) has not proven to be successfully revolutionary. I think we're more likely to see revolution in China and/or India as they emerge as advanced capitalist powers, the overwhelming poverty that the proletariat of both countries endures is not something that will disappear with development.

[zimmerwald1915]

It is possible conditions can get better like they did in the 20's or the 50's.
Things got better in the 20s?

[ExUnoDisceOmnes]

Things got better in the 20s?

They did in the United States :bored:

[Amphictyonis]

Ideology or socialism 'being a theoretical step up' in human advancement (which it is) won't bring about a successful revolution in advanced capitalist nations on its own. Worsening material conditions/crisis will in fact be the spring board. This is simply the reality of the situation. We're not in complete control of when the revolution happens- capitalism itself will determine when- it's our job to prepare for and seize the moment when it's presented. I don't think this current crisis will be bad enough but the system is global now so capitalists have nowhere to run from the worsening crisis. I think socialism in advanced capitalist nations may be possible in our lifetime we just need to make socialism a household name but not the propagandized version of socialism.

They're working hard to keep their system afloat- they're well aware capitalism cannot outlast another two or three period of global crisis. These are indeed interesting times.

[ExUnoDisceOmnes]

I wish that I could live during the revolution.

[Jimmie Higgins]

Many people living withing the confines of developed capitalistic society have indeed become disillusioned with the system, and current economic conditions are only adding to this. But the fact of the matter is that leftism is devoid of any real party structure to properly channel this emotional sentiment, and that much of it is left unused because of such. The conditions may be more open than usual to revolution, but the fact still remains that no party apparatus exists to capitalize on this. Many people are devoid of the proper knowledge to really consider action in a revolutionary direction as well, only furthering matters.

Some political change may come out of this, but the conditions still are decent enough for enough people in power that the possibility of any real revolutionary change still remains questionable.

Good points. Marx talks about the class war being sometimes hidden while at other times it comes to the surface of society and I think really we have entered into a period of much more overt class-war. Right now this is only coming from the ruling class and the working class has taken a defensive stance, but in the larger picture, capitalism is in deep crisis and we are headed for a period of instability more like the early 20th century than the relative stability of post WWII capitalism (not that it was all roses for people during that time).

As far as the larger historical (or objective) situation we are in, I agree with the OP that radical politics have a huge potential right now because of political and economic instability caused by the crisis. But the problem is what thesadmafioso outlined above: the subjective situation much of the left finds itself in is that we lack the organizational structures right now to really impact the objective political situation. It's different in different places... in the US (and probably the UK) increased radicalization (among students and many workers facing cuts) is happening but we have to basically rebuild the structures and the grassroots working class "leaders/activists" whereas the problem is different in places like France where there is more of a left but democratic-socialism and the trade unions are more dominant than the radical left.

IMO our challenge is to bridge this gap between increased questioning of the system and potential radicalization of students and workers on the one hand and a lack of revolutionary movements and networks/parties on the other. This gap has increased the attractiveness of insurrectionist type politics for many, but I don't think that will help build a mass radical movement (because actually going out and organizing people and helping to build grassroots working class radicals doesn't seem very important to the insurrectionists). Ultimately I think from the broad-left we will need to be seeing things like coordinated SDS-type student coalitions, rank and file reform movements inside existing unions and left-wing attempts to organize service workers and other industries largely ignored by the main unions to build the kind of wide-spread fightback that can knit together a revolutionary movement.

It may seem like the right has the momentum in many places right now, but I also think there is a new economic generation gap developing. People under 30 have never really know a government that grants reforms like the WWII and boomer generations saw. For young workers and students, their whole experience has been declining wages and living standards, increased labor exploitation, and social cuts and austerity. In the US polls have shown that despite the rise of the tea party politics and rightward push from the politicians 1/3 or people under 30 support "socialism" - they mean reforms, but I think it's telling that while the 50 year old New Right Reganites are still crying about welfare queens 15 years after a Democratic president "ended welfare as we know it", young workers are looking for progressive alternatives.

[The American]

I think the only countries that have any chance of revolution are China, South America, and possibly Russia.
The Maoists in India are far too outnumbered, but the ones in Nepal could overcome the coalition and be the sole ruling party.
The gap between the poor and the rich in China is increasing ever since Deng Xiaopings reforms, so China may be ripe for another revolution if another Mao comes along.
South America will go peacefully, with Venezuela already socialist and Chavez getting more ballsy by the minute. Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay all have leftist leaders that aspire to be the next Castro or Chavez, so armed revolt won't be necessary. Brazils new president was a former communist I hear, so it should be interesting to see what happens there. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the Columbian Marxist guerrillas are being funded by Castro or Chavez.
The Communist Party in Russia is still the second most popular party, although it would be a stretch if they took power again.
North America is too overcome by propaganda to be socialist in the near future. The citizens of the USA cry for revolt against the government because they passed expansion of medicare to cover uninsured people, so they will never shake loose the brainwashing by the media. There is my uneducated forecast, lets hope some of it comes true!:D

[Matty_UK]

I think the chance of a revolution in several European nations isn't as unlikely or as far off as we might think.

Back in 2008, everybody was saying that the recession will all just blow over as it always does - less and less people are saying that now, and just based on my own personal experience I would guess the number of self-identified revolutionaries in the UK has at least doubled over the last year. True, most people are just getting on with their own lives and don't care much for politics, but things are going to get worse for the foreseeable future. Half a million public sector workers are going to be laid off, and millions more are going to be deprived of vital public services - the effects of this will hit the private sector as well, and unemployment is going to climb to new heights over the next few years. Even worse, jobseekers allowance is being cut and being unemployed will be harder than ever.

On top of that, it seems that with the stock market and real estate market in tatters, the capitalists have started invested in commodity futures, which means the price of essential foodstuffs is rising despite demand falling. Food prices rising because of the banks, combined with mass unemployment and cuts to the dole, is going to unleash some serious rage, and it won't be pretty.

And finally, the banks are going to collapse again and there won't be any public money left to bail them out. What this will mean is hard to imagine, but it could well make the Great Depression look like a holiday.

Whether socialism or barbarism comes out of this depends entirely on our ability to push forward our narrative of the crisis, win over people to socialist ideas, and bring together the different struggles and explosions of rage on not only a national but an international basis. The first is always going to be difficult in the face of bourgeois mass media, the second will get easier and easier over time as the situation grows more critical, and the third we can start to do already.

The problem with the student movement, and the movement against the cuts in the UK in general, (and I suspect the same is true for movements across Europe) is that the way it exists presently it can only be defined by what it opposes and not by what it advocates - so long as we are composed of seperate disparate groups it will always be this way, and we need to create some democratic representative body which has the authority to speak for the goals of the movement as a whole.

The "First National Assembly for Education" in London on the 30th of this month could be the creation of such a body which represents the student movement as a whole. The formation of a national student body existing outside the NUS would be a great acheivement, and as new struggles pop up we could expand the organisation to represent people other than students and lecturers, thus creating the beginnings of a revolutionary party. This should happen as long as sectarianism doesn't get in the way.

[Matty_UK]

I don't think this recession will prompt any successful revolutions in the developed world, the working class action in Greece, Britain, Portugal, Italy, France, Spain etc (whilst admirable) has not proven to be successfully revolutionary. I think we're more likely to see revolution in China and/or India as they emerge as advanced capitalist powers, the overwhelming poverty that the proletariat of both countries endures is not something that will disappear with development.

Come on now, it's early days yet. In the UK it hasn't even been 2 months since the first major demonstration!

And to be honest, I don't think a revolution in China is all that likely. There are a lot of riots and disturbances, but I think it would be wrong to assume that the majority of those involved want revolution rather than just some particular grievance addressed. For the most part, Chinese people see their country going forward and are fairly optimistic so I don't think there will be a revolution unless there is a major and prolonged economic crisis in China.

I think a revolution in non-soviet bloc Europe is most likely for several reasons.

1 - People here are used to fairly comfortable lives, and not many will accept it as inevitable that their standard of living has to reduce drastically.

2 - Internationalism is stronger here than anywhere else, and there is a high chance that a revolution in one European country will quickly snowball into an international revolutionary movement.

3 - There's a great deal of highly educated and politically sophisticated university graduates who have no future and are likely to be catalysts for social change.

4 - There's a long history of worker's struggle and class consciousness is fairly high.

5 - The developing nations still have room for capitalist economic expansion, whilst much of Europe is over-developed, stagnant, indebted, and dependant on finance.

[bricolage]

2 - Internationalism is stronger here than anywhere else, and there is a high chance that a revolution in one European country will quickly snowball into an international revolutionary movement.
What do you base this on?

3 - There's a great deal of highly educated and politically sophisticated university graduates who have no future and are likely to be catalysts for social change.This seems to suggest that having a degree makes invests you with more social agency than not. For sure we are seeing a reabsorption of University graduates back into the type of working class jobs that higher education was sold as a means to escape but I don't think this means these graduates will be more prone to revolutionary ideas than those who were working in these jobs before. I think there is a tendency of students and those close to student politics to see the University and the social identity of the 'student' it produces as something separate from the rest of society, somehow more likely to bring about change by virtue of having spent time in libraries reading Foucault.

4 - There's a long history of worker's struggle and class consciousness is fairly high.There is a history of working class struggles true but then I think this is true in other countries as well, in regards to class consciousness though, not that I particularly subscribe to the idea that is wholly 'consciousness' that brings about change, I think you overestimate how high it is. Workers, in the UK at least, are still very much divided, action largely viewed within the paradigm of the particular industry you happen to work in and not on a wider scale. I do think this is changing though, for example I was recently working a temporary contract as a hospital porter before it got cancelled on Friday and I spent a lot of time in the pathology lab where the lab assistants are all having new shift patterns and pay scales threatened at them. I was in the tea room one day and on the tv there was a bit of coverage over the christmas tube strike. One of the lab assistants watching it said something like 'you know I wouldn't have had any sympathy for them before but after the stuff thats been going on here I think they have the right idea'. Now this is an isolated case but I think it is something that is happening on a wider scale. As a result of material conditions struggle is intensifying, as struggle intensifies individuals radicalise. However at the same time I think there is a habit to overemphasise the recent student demonstrations and see the extremely radical tactics as representative of equally radical content. Overt working class struggle is still at a low level, it is reemerging at a couple of decades of, relative, social peace, but it is important to not get carried away. If we speak at this time next year though I reckon we could be looking at something very different.

[Matty_UK]

What do you base this on?

Just a general feeling which is hard to pinpoint - maybe it's because of lessons learned from the first and second world wars, but there are a lot of people who view outright expressions of nationalism with suspicion, which as far I know is pretty rare in other countries. I'm not saying that the EU is progressive, but the support it has does seem to stem mainly from internationalist principles which are quite rare in other parts of the world. But then I could be wrong!


This seems to suggest that having a degree makes invests you with more social agency than not. For sure we are seeing a reabsorption of University graduates back into the type of working class jobs that higher education was sold as a means to escape but I don't think this means these graduates will be more prone to revolutionary ideas than those who were working in these jobs before. I think there is a tendency of students and those close to student politics to see the University and the social identity of the 'student' it produces as something separate from the rest of society, somehow more likely to bring about change by virtue of having spent time in libraries reading Foucault.

I don't mean to suggest that students are seperate to the rest of society, however I think an educated working class is more likely to be revolutionary than an uneducated working class, because a sense of history and a grasp of how the capitalist economy works is quite important. I don't think there's been a single revolution or social movement in the last 200 years where educated youth haven't played a major role, and we can see this in the political movements across Europe today. I think it would be a mistake to ignore this.

And also, the feeling of being cheated among a lot of graduates stuck in dead-end jobs certainly makes them more likely to support revolution.


There is a history of working class struggles true but then I think this is true in other countries as well, in regards to class consciousness though, not that I particularly subscribe to the idea that is wholly 'consciousness' that brings about change, I think you overestimate how high it is. Workers, in the UK at least, are still very much divided, action largely viewed within the paradigm of the particular industry you happen to work in and not on a wider scale. I do think this is changing though, for example I was recently working a temporary contract as a hospital porter before it got cancelled on Friday and I spent a lot of time in the pathology lab where the lab assistants are all having new shift patterns and pay scales threatened at them. I was in the tea room one day and on the tv there was a bit of coverage over the christmas tube strike. One of the lab assistants watching it said something like 'you know I wouldn't have had any sympathy for them before but after the stuff thats been going on here I think they have the right idea'. Now this is an isolated case but I think it is something that is happening on a wider scale. As a result of material conditions struggle is intensifying, as struggle intensifies individuals radicalise. However at the same time I think there is a habit to overemphasise the recent student demonstrations and see the extremely radical tactics as representative of equally radical content. Overt working class struggle is still at a low level, it is reemerging at a couple of decades of, relative, social peace, but it is important to not get carried away. If we speak at this time next year though I reckon we could be looking at something very different.

Perhaps you're right. However, class consciousness and radical thought are certainly more prevalent in Europe than in North America, Australia, and Japan, which has a lot to do with Europe's history.

[bricolage]

Just a general feeling which is hard to pinpoint - maybe it's because of lessons learned from the first and second world wars, but there are a lot of people who view outright expressions of nationalism with suspicion, which as far I know is pretty rare in other countries. I'm not saying that the EU is progressive, but the support it has does seem to stem mainly from internationalist principles which are quite rare in other parts of the world. But then I could be wrong!
I don't really think I can agree with this. Nationalist sentiments are still popular across Europe. If we look at the UK and even outside of the far right realm the ideas of working for the nation, of protecting the British economy are still very prominent, at the very least regularly across the press. In terms of the EU it is hardly internationalist, even if you say it was an attempt to form some kind of trans-continent identity is has come via the sealing off of 'Fortress Europe. What we are looking at here is the globalisation of capital coming alongside the de-globalisation of people.


I don't mean to suggest that students are seperate to the rest of society, however I think an educated working class is more likely to be revolutionary than an uneducated working class, because a sense of history and a grasp of how the capitalist economy works is quite important.
But I think its wrong to say such education can only come from formal education in that there are workers who left school at sixteen with a far greater understanding of how capitalism works and of working class history than those who are doing phds right now.


And also, the feeling of being cheated among a lot of graduates stuck in dead-end jobs certainly makes them more likely to support revolution.
This is possible, I'm not sure if it means they would be likely to support revolution, but probably more likely to take to the streets than if they were in middle management jobs for life.
Still though I don't think this will compare the industries predominantly employing those workers who never went to university in the first place.


Perhaps you're right. However, class consciousness and radical thought are certainly more prevalent in Europe than in North America, Australia, and Japan, which has a lot to do with Europe's history.
But then I think we have seen greater examples of class struggle in places like Turkey, Iran or India recently than we have in Europe. Historically the emergence of the working class was in Europe and so it followed that class struggle and theories of class struggles originated there two. But times have changed massively since then and Europe is no longer as Europe was.

[ev]

No.
http://shirtswag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/slavery-gets-shit-done.jpg

If economic conditions paved way for revolutions we'd be free over 2000 years ago..