4 Scenarios for the Coming Collapse of the American Empire

[Hexen]

I found a interesting article from Alternet about the possible scenarios of the coming collapse of the USian empire.

http://www.alternet.org/world/149080/4_scenarios_for_the_coming_collapse_of_the_america n_empire/?page=1

Would any of these scenarios listed in this article realistic or is there anything else missing from there?

[Rakhmetov]

2050 ????????

The world and its people can not wait that long! AmeriKKKa needs to collapse right now! :cursing:

[piet11111]

I would expect the economic lack of funding on the state level would force some states to break away and through that the USA would simply be broken up.

[Delenda Carthago]

2050 ????????

The world and its people can not wait that long! AmeriKKKa needs to collapse right now! :cursing:

I agree.We need China to take over NOW!The world cant wait!

[IndependentCitizen]

I agree.We need China to take over NOW!The world cant wait!

Really...now?

[Os Cangaceiros]

Right now!

[theAnarch]

This article does not really caculate just how tied up China is in the world capitalist economy. China has even tied its currency to the USD.....If the US goes China will come tumbling after.

[Robocommie]

Right now!

RIGHT NOW!!! :cursing:

[Nolan]

I would expect the economic lack of funding on the state level would force some states to break away and through that the USA would simply be broken up.

This. When it comes, it will end in Balkanization.

[Comrade Wolfie's Very Nearly Banned Adventures]

This. When it comes, it will end in Balkanization.

As happends with all empires. Large and small.

[Nolan]

As happends with all empires. Large and small.

I don't think you could consider the collapse of the Roman Empire or the decline of the British Empire as balkanizations.

[Comrade Wolfie's Very Nearly Banned Adventures]

I don't think you could consider the collapse of the Roman Empire or the decline of the British Empire as balkanizations.

The British Empire split into hundreds of countries? Rome split in two before the Western Half collapsed into Germanic Kingdoms ruled by a quasi-romanized elite. The East slowly fell appart as its territories were lost one by one.

[Jimmie Higgins]

A working class revolution in the US is a must. A "collapse" of the US would probably cause WWIII. With the collapse of the USSR, there was already the US waiting to become global hegemon and pick up the pieces with an army that could single-handedly take on most of the industrialized world. On top of that in the USSR, there were bureaucrats ready and enthusiastic to adopt to a new economic model. As the British Empire went into decline and France lost control of its empire with WWII, again, the US was already in place as an up and coming power that could reorganize the global order. If the US collapsed on its own right now, it would be like if the British empire collapsed in 1900 - if that happened the France could not take on the british empire and Germany, Russia and the US would have probably instantly gone to war over trying to grab up the pieces.

If the US collapsed without a working class already in place (i.e. no mass organized working class fightback and no duel-power) to run society, then it's be a situation where a military the size of the rest of the world's militaries combines is suddenly up for grabs. China could come in somewhat, but it would have to be through trade deals and diplomacy, because they can not match even a wounded US when it comes to military power.

Second there is no basis for a break-up into various states like what happened in the USSR where regional ruling classes already had a coherent "nation" that either existed before WWI or was defined by a common language or customs or whatnot. As much as regional capitalists and politicans talk about "states rights" it's a total smokescreen and the "red-state/blue state" divide is as wide as the differnece between the Republican and Democratic parties (not very big in other words). States are used as mini-economic zones (so like West Virginia with a low population can basically be owned by the mining industry, Alaska by oil, Washington by logging) but they have no material interest in breaking off from the US. California has a big economy and makes trade deals with China to sell our agricultural output there, but without the US, California would not be able to make such favorable deals. US companies would loose out big-time without the full power of the US state backing them. If the US collapsed in the 1800s, maybe then it would have broken into a southern zone, a western zone and east and mid-west zone, but that's no longer the case that there are regional conflicts between different sections of the US ruling class.

EDit: of course all empires fall at some point, but the important thing I think is if it will fall and cause barbarism or it will fall because people are building socialism.

[La Comédie Noire]

The article is just an uninformative masturbation session, like those World War III threads people seem to love so dearly.


If the US collapsed without a working class already in place (i.e. no mass organized working class fightback and no duel-power) to run society, then it's be a situation where a military the size of the rest of the world's militaries combines is suddenly up for grabs. China could come in somewhat, but it would have to be through trade deals and diplomacy, because they can not match even a wounded US when it comes to military power.

I think it would be like the late roman empire, with bands of marauding soldiers and military cliques settling political matters with force.

[Apoi_Viitor]

I agree.We need China to take over NOW!The world cant wait!

I don't understand. Why would one group of bourgeios elites supplanting another be anything to celebrate over? China overtaking the US as the leading global superpower would be about as beneficial as when the US overtook the British empire...

[Os Cangaceiros]

Pretty sure that he was being sarcastic there...

[Rafiq]

China will become just as bad as the United States if it becomes the big bad wolf in town.

We need all empires to collapse.

[Red Commissar]

I remember reading this when it came up in MarxMail. I don't know, I think the first half was interesting but the last bit seemed a bit laughable.

[Jalapeno Enema]

I'll say it: the world, or at least the slice where I live, is not ready for revolution right now.

Assume that somehow the U.S. and other major capitalist powers were to fall right now; would socialist ideology take hold, regardless of how these governments ended?

Sorry, but I think no. There would be massive counter-revolutions. At best, the revolution would in turn be replaced by a new capitalist structure. At worst, I see a devolution into feudalism.

Perhaps not a majority of the population has to fight with the leftists, but a significant portion of the population has to support said leftists, otherwise it will not take hold, even if the leftist revolution were powerful enough to prevail.

I think 2050 sounds like an optimistic, but more realistic, estimate. People need to learn not only to loathe the current system, but the merits of the system that replaces it before revolution.

Action now does not mean go shoot up Wall Street, but rather march down Main Street. Educate the masses.

I'm willing to wait.

[Die Neue Zeit]

If the US collapsed without a working class already in place (i.e. no mass organized working class fightback and no duel-power) to run society, then it's be a situation where a military the size of the rest of the world's militaries combines is suddenly up for grabs. China could come in somewhat, but it would have to be through trade deals and diplomacy, because they can not match even a wounded US when it comes to military power.

In such a very non-revolutionary period, consider the imperialist power(s) whose outlook best advances worker interests, however inadvertently. And if the US attacked in its vain attempt to save its imperialism, consider siding with the imperialist power(s) being attacked for the sake of class-struggle defencism.

[ckaihatsu]

I think 2050 sounds like an optimistic, but more realistic, estimate. People need to learn not only to loathe the current system, but the merits of the system that replaces it before revolution.




I'm willing to wait.


Is there a term like 'revolutionary delayism' -- ? (Like 'revolutionary defeatism'.)

While you may *personally* have the luxury of waiting, please keep in mind that, *as a class*, the clock is *always* against us, and many are *physically suffering* because of the capitalist system, as we speak. Mass numbers are having their lives bled away from them by being kept behind bars, impoverished, unemployed, etc. -- as we *all* are, to some degree, by not having a world that is responsive to our better collective intelligence and mass participatory planning.

[Unclebananahead]

Is there a term like 'revolutionary delayism' -- ? (Like 'revolutionary defeatism'.)

While you may *personally* have the luxury of waiting, please keep in mind that, *as a class*, the clock is *always* against us, and many are *physically suffering* because of the capitalist system, as we speak. Mass numbers are having their lives bled away from them by being kept behind bars, impoverished, unemployed, etc. -- as we *all* are, to some degree, by not having a world that is responsive to our better collective intelligence and mass participatory planning.

Agreed. Think of all those multitudes living in ramshackle, cardboard shanty towns with barely enough to eat and nothing resembling proper sanitation, spread all around the globe. For such people, eviscerating capitalism, seizing state power, building socialism and establishing a planned economy that meets the needs of the people is an issue of survival -- a matter of life and death. Let's hope it comes sooner than 2050!

The imperialist US, having made itself the single greatest obstacle to the foregoing, urgently needs to be 'brought down a few pegs' in terms of its ability to project its power and influence around the world. I for one, am most certainly interested in learning how this could possibly be practically realized.

[t.shonku]

guys! can I ask you people something?Will there be a American Civil war in near future?(just like it happened in 1800s).Is this tea party a precursor to that coming war?


By the way I would love to see US capitalism collapse :thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:


Bring em down now!

[t.shonku]

Found an interesting article here


Got this in email

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting a revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions - all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

"We're going to see the end of the retail Christmas... .we're going to see a fundamental shift take place....putting food on the table is going to be more important that putting gifts under the Christmas tree," said Celente, adding that the situation would be "worse than the great depression".

"America's going to go through a transition the likes of which no one is prepared for," said Celente, noting that people's refusal to acknowledge that America was even in a recession highlights how big a problem denial is in being ready for the true scale of the crisis.

Celente, who successfully predicted the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis, the subprime mortgage collapse and the massive devaluation of the U.S. dollar, told UPI in November last year that the following year would be known as "The Panic of 2008," adding that "giants (would) tumble to their deaths," which is exactly what we have witnessed with the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and others. He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 percent.

The consequence of what we have seen unfold this year would lead to a lowering in living standards, Celente predicted a year ago, which is also being borne out by plummeting retail sales figures.

The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, "The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest," and that, "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class."

In a separate recent interview, Celente went further on the subject of revolution in America.

"There will be a revolution in this country," he said. "It's not going to come yet, but it's going to come down the line and we're going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen."

"The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That's going to be the big one because people can't afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You're going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop."

"It's going to be very bleak. Very sad. And there is going to be a lot of homeless, the likes of which we have never seen before. Tent cities are already sprouting up around the country and we're going to see many more."

"We're going to start seeing huge areas of vacant real estate and squatters living in them as well. It's going to be a picture the likes of which Americans are not going to be used to. It's going to come as a shock and with it, there's going to be a lot of crime. And the crime is going to be a lot worse than it was before because in the last 1929 Depression, people's minds weren't wrecked on all these modern drugs - over-the-counter drugs, or crystal meth or whatever it might be. So, you have a huge underclass of very desperate people with their minds chemically blown beyond anybody's comprehension."

The George Washington blog has compiled a list of quotes attesting to Celente's accuracy as a trend forecaster.

"When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente." - CNN Headline News

"Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right."
- USA Today

"There's not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he's talking about."
- CNBC

"Those who take their predictions seriously ... consider Gerald Celente and the Trends Research Institute."
- The Wall Street Journal

"Gerald Celente is always ahead of the curve on trends and uncannily on the mark ... he's one of the most accurate forecasters around."
- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

"Mr. Celente tracks the world's social, economic and business trends for corporate clients."- The New York Times

"Mr. Celente is a very intelligent guy. We are able to learn about trends from an authority."- 48 Hours, CBS News

"Gerald Celente has a solid track record. He has predicted everything from the 1987 stock market crash and the demise of the Soviet Union to green marketing and corporate downsizing."- The Detroit News

"Gerald Celente forecast the 1987 stock market crash, 'green marketing,' and the boom in gourmet coffees."- Chicago Tribune

"The Trends Research Institute is the Standard and Poors of Popular Culture."- The Los Angeles Times

"If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente."- New York Post



Link to Original Article
http://forum.pakistanidefence.com/index.php?showtopic=79403

[Nothing Human Is Alien]

Just an FYI: That article comes from rightist Alex Jones' Prison Planet website and is over two years old.

http://www.infowars.com/celente-predicts-revolution-food-riots-tax-rebellions-by-2012/

[Martin Blank]

I think I can pretty much assure everyone that none of these scenarios will ever actually happen.

[Delenda Carthago]

I was trolling!!Of course I dont want China to take over!

[Kiev Communard]

The total collapse of U.S. global domination is certainly possible, but hardly destined to be something dramatic, like the fall of Rome. More plausible is the scenario of gradual decline.

[Devrim]

In such a very non-revolutionary period, consider the imperialist power(s) whose outlook best advances worker interests, however inadvertently.

Funnily enough imperialist powers have a tendency to advance their own interests not those of the working class.

Devrim

[Die Neue Zeit]

I said "however inadvertently" for a reason. The other key, as you should know by now, is the Kautskyan approach to revolutionary vs. non-revolutionary periods (not tied to tight embraces of "decadence"), what constitutes the former (four criteria), what doesn't, what's appropriate for the latter (class-struggle defencism, "peace without annexations or indemnifications," etc.), and what isn't (lunatic "revolutionary defeatism").

At the moment, I'm pointing fingers at Chinese and Brazilian imperialism.

[GPDP]

I'm not expecting the U.S. to totally collapse or fall apart. In fact, I don't see why people are even suggesting the thought within the context of the article. What I see is the collapse of the U.S. empire, not the nation as a whole. And if it does collapse, it won't be in a grandiose way, but gradual and subtle.

I expect it will look kind of like the first scenario, where the economic problems become so big that the U.S. has no choice but to withdraw from the wars, followed by pulling most of its military bases around the world out. The U.S. will lose its power as a world hegemon, but I expect it to retain influence within the Western hemisphere somewhat. Even there, though, I imagine its hold will slip, particularly in South America.

[ckaihatsu]

He also said that the dollar would eventually be devalued by as much as 90 percent.


It's blatantly obvious that this line is from libertarian types -- they'll continue to be personally invested in the basic bourgeois structure of the government and economy, no matter how battered or shrunken it may become as a result of its own machinations.

- Note that the article speaks in terms of the money supply (currency value), and the relative funding of the government (taxes) -- from a revolutionary perspective these are merely *parameters* of class rule and do not speak to the fundamental question of how labor is organized (and what would happen to the private sector and the ownership of corporations and their profits).

- Separately, the U.S. dollar itself is a whole other issue of its own since it's currently serving as the world's reserve currency. Setting up an address-book database could be used as an analogy here, in the sense that *one* independent variable -- as with the 'last name' field in an address book -- has to exist so that all other world currencies (variables) can revolve around in relation to that *main*, indexing currency, the U.S. dollar. Because of this empirical fact in the post-Bretton-Woods economic world, the U.S. dollar has benefitted from its default hegemony as the standard "plates and cups" that everyone *has* to buy just to be able to "eat food" -- do business. This hegemony from its dual role as value *and* baseline economic vessel has led some to describe the U.S. dollar as functionally giving the U.S. Treasury the ability to issue unsigned checks at various face values that are accepted as payment value for tangible goods and services, without question, without ever being cashed. As long as the U.S. dollar continues to occupy the role as the world's reserve currency the U.S.'s basic *political* hegemony will accompany, and continue.





"There will be a revolution in this country," he said. "It's not going to come yet, but it's going to come down the line and we're going to see a third party and this was the catalyst for it: the takeover of Washington, D. C., in broad daylight by Wall Street in this bloodless coup. And it will happen as conditions continue to worsen."

"The first thing to do is organize with tax revolts. That's going to be the big one because people can't afford to pay more school tax, property tax, any kind of tax. You're going to start seeing those kinds of protests start to develop."


This sounds like wishful thinking from those political sectors. According to them, 'revolution' is limited to one country (the U.S., of course), will merely usher in a third party, will be bloodless, will be limited to a coup at most, and will only punish the bourgeoisie's whipping-boy, the nation-state.

[Red Commissar]

The Gerald Celente bit seems to be more FUD-style politics than anything meaningful to be honest. If it's from prison planet, then that shouldn't be surprising.

[Hexen]

I don't know if I should create a new thread but I have found yet another article about the collapse of the USian empire on Alternet.

http://www.alternet.org/world/149173/the_american_empire_is_collapsing%2C_and_americans _will_be_the_last_to_know/

[dearest chuck]

guys! can I ask you people something?Will there be a American Civil war in near future?(just like it happened in 1800s).Is this tea party a precursor to that coming war?


By the way I would love to see US capitalism collapse :thumbup::thumbup::thumbup:


Bring em down now!
A famous person once said "everything reactionary is the same; if you don't strike at it, it won't fall"

[Pravda Soyuz]

The U.S. is doomed in its current state. It is being overcome in its wars (lost military potency) and the populace are increasingly unhappy with the government. The two parties can agree on nothing and the people are the victims. Even Obama, promising "hope" cannot stop the inevitable decline. The economy continues to spiral downwards. America will not collapse fully, but its superpower status is gone. Only a radical change in politics and economics can save it now.

[ckaihatsu]

The U.S. is doomed in its current state. It is being overcome in its wars (lost military potency) and the populace are increasingly unhappy with the government. The two parties can agree on nothing and the people are the victims. Even Obama, promising "hope" cannot stop the inevitable decline. The economy continues to spiral downwards. America will not collapse fully, but its superpower status is gone. Only a radical change in politics and economics can save it now.


Only showbiz can save it now...!


x D