The Vegan Marxist
30th November 2010, 07:47
Lee Myung Bak has drunk his own Kool-Aid: An analysis of the wiki cables on Korea
by Professor Toad
On the basis of the U.S. diplomatic cables recently released by Wikileaks, the British Guardian newspaper has carried a story claiming that China is “ready to abandon North Korea.” The article goes on to state that the Chinese view North Korean behavior as that of a spoiled child; that the North has collapsed economically and is on the verge of polical collapse; and that China is ready to accept a unified Korea under Southern control.
All of this would come as a great surprise to someone who had carefully watched Chinese language concerning Korea for the last few years. The Chinese have consistently been the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s most important ally, economically and diplomatically.
However, the discrepancy is easily enough explained: A careful study of the actual text of the cables also available on the Guardian website shows that every single one of the surprising statements comes to the U.S. through a South Korean government official. Chinese comments made directly to the U.S. and contained in the cables are indistinguishable from Chinese published statements: China favors peace, negotiation and denuclearization. It is unwilling to support sanctions against North Korea and respects North Korea’s own decisions.
We do not have direct access to China’s statements to South Korean diplomats. But it is hardly to be expected that they are dramatically different from Chinese statements to U.S. diplomats. Thus the picture the Lee Myung Bak gang paints of the Chinese view of North Korea is surely either fabrication or wishful thinking.
Over the course of the last year, the Lee Myung Bak gang has engaged in a series of provocations aimed at North Korea. The most recent was the act of firing shells into North Korean territorial waters, which drew the counterfire of the DPRK armed forces.
To date, these provocations have not been successful for the Lee Myung Bak gang. It is widely believed that the fabricated Cheonan incident and Lee Myung Bak’s warmongering statements associated with it were a major cause of his party’s dismal showing in South Korean mayoral elections. The Christian Science Monitor explains these events here (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/0603/At-polls-South-Korea-conservatives-pay-for-response-to-Cheonan-sinking).
The most recent event promises to have no better outcome. Lee Myung Bak has been forced to fire his defense minister and is under heavy political fire from all sides. At the same time, the U.S. has made clear that it favors a diplomatic solution to the situation and has taken up its usual refrain of insisting that China do something about North Korea’s alleged ill behavior.
The Chinese reaction cannot have been gratifying to the Lee Myung Bak gang. The Chinese have refused to specifically condemn North Korea. Instead, they have asked all sides to refrain from escalating the situation and once again called for a resumption of talks.
To make matters worse, even in the immediate aftermath of the incident, the Chinese remained sharply critical of the U.S.-South Korea military exercises off the Korean coast.
So what is going on here? I suggest that the cables hold the answer: The Lee Myung Bak gang actually believes that China will abandon North Korea, provoking a crisis in North Korea which would allow a South Korean military takeover. The reality must be very disappointing for them. Unfortunately, with no sign that the Americans are going to pull back on their leash, the Lee Myung Bak gang is likely to double down their bets.
http://redantliberationarmy.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/lee-myung-bak-has-drunk-his-own-kool-aid-an-analysis-of-the-wiki-cables-on-korea/
by Professor Toad
On the basis of the U.S. diplomatic cables recently released by Wikileaks, the British Guardian newspaper has carried a story claiming that China is “ready to abandon North Korea.” The article goes on to state that the Chinese view North Korean behavior as that of a spoiled child; that the North has collapsed economically and is on the verge of polical collapse; and that China is ready to accept a unified Korea under Southern control.
All of this would come as a great surprise to someone who had carefully watched Chinese language concerning Korea for the last few years. The Chinese have consistently been the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s most important ally, economically and diplomatically.
However, the discrepancy is easily enough explained: A careful study of the actual text of the cables also available on the Guardian website shows that every single one of the surprising statements comes to the U.S. through a South Korean government official. Chinese comments made directly to the U.S. and contained in the cables are indistinguishable from Chinese published statements: China favors peace, negotiation and denuclearization. It is unwilling to support sanctions against North Korea and respects North Korea’s own decisions.
We do not have direct access to China’s statements to South Korean diplomats. But it is hardly to be expected that they are dramatically different from Chinese statements to U.S. diplomats. Thus the picture the Lee Myung Bak gang paints of the Chinese view of North Korea is surely either fabrication or wishful thinking.
Over the course of the last year, the Lee Myung Bak gang has engaged in a series of provocations aimed at North Korea. The most recent was the act of firing shells into North Korean territorial waters, which drew the counterfire of the DPRK armed forces.
To date, these provocations have not been successful for the Lee Myung Bak gang. It is widely believed that the fabricated Cheonan incident and Lee Myung Bak’s warmongering statements associated with it were a major cause of his party’s dismal showing in South Korean mayoral elections. The Christian Science Monitor explains these events here (http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2010/0603/At-polls-South-Korea-conservatives-pay-for-response-to-Cheonan-sinking).
The most recent event promises to have no better outcome. Lee Myung Bak has been forced to fire his defense minister and is under heavy political fire from all sides. At the same time, the U.S. has made clear that it favors a diplomatic solution to the situation and has taken up its usual refrain of insisting that China do something about North Korea’s alleged ill behavior.
The Chinese reaction cannot have been gratifying to the Lee Myung Bak gang. The Chinese have refused to specifically condemn North Korea. Instead, they have asked all sides to refrain from escalating the situation and once again called for a resumption of talks.
To make matters worse, even in the immediate aftermath of the incident, the Chinese remained sharply critical of the U.S.-South Korea military exercises off the Korean coast.
So what is going on here? I suggest that the cables hold the answer: The Lee Myung Bak gang actually believes that China will abandon North Korea, provoking a crisis in North Korea which would allow a South Korean military takeover. The reality must be very disappointing for them. Unfortunately, with no sign that the Americans are going to pull back on their leash, the Lee Myung Bak gang is likely to double down their bets.
http://redantliberationarmy.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/lee-myung-bak-has-drunk-his-own-kool-aid-an-analysis-of-the-wiki-cables-on-korea/