Sarkozy Is Hanging By A Thread

[Rakhmetov]

Ultimately, if this movement develops into a massive general strike the question of the government will be posed. Sarkozy has already been weakened by corruption scandals and by brutal expulsions of Roma gypsies. The leaders of the Communist Party and the Socialist Party should open call for the government to resign and early elections to be called. If they stood on the basis of a genuine socialist programme against the crisis they would get overwhelming support.

http://www.marxist.com/france-3-5-million-against-pension-reform-what-next.htm

[blake 3:17]

Not a bad article from Business Week for a bit of context: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-13/french-strike-extended-as-sarkozy-unions-see-no-common-ground.html

Below is from the end of the article.



Across France, 1.23 million people marched in protests on Oct. 12, police said, up from 997,000 during the previous demonstrations on Oct. 2. The CFDT union said 3.5 million people marched, up from 2.9 million. The protest was the fourth against the proposed pension changes in five weeks. Unions plan more demonstrations Oct. 16.
Union leaders have opposed calling for a general unlimited strike, instead allowing workers to decide branch by branch whether to continue striking. Unions have said the changes made to the pension bill so far by the government are insufficient.

The government says it will allow people in hardship jobs who started working as teenagers, as well as women who had three children, to continue retiring early.

“The sense of responsibility, the sense of duty, is what led the government to propose, as has been done in all other countries, to lengthen working careers to finance the retirement system,” Prime Minister Francois Fillon said during debate in parliament yesterday.

[Antifa94]

ahahah the thread title.... one can only wish!

[The Grey Blur]

i'm in france at the moment on a study year...i think the title is accurate. sarko is admired by the right for doing exactly what he's doing now, wading through left-wing/worker protest unphazed, but he may have bitten off more than he can chew in terms of pension reform and the attacks on the rom (which have generated a lot of anger amongst younger people and students). the big fear for the government now is that 6th form/uni students will join in the major strikes and the history that evokes of 68 is truly terrifying for the french ruling class.

[Martin Blank]

Objectively, the thread title is right, but the likelihood of a workers' upheaval is small. Even though Sarkozy's support is at an historic low and more than two-thirds of the country is backing the strikes/protests, the union officials continue to reject calls for a general strike and back "negotiation". And even though the capitalists are demanding the state be used to break strikes, such as in Marseille, neither the unions nor the left have the stomach to call for armed workers' self-defense (to say nothing of actually agitating for it). Even if the university students do join the actions and further the feared "radicalization" of the protests, the most that will come of it is another May 1968 -- i.e., an upsurge with great potential, but ultimately a failure due to lack of workers' self-organization and perspective.

[blake 3:17]

An explosive situation


Towards a general strike
Sandra Demarcq (http://www.revleft.com/vb/spip.php?auteur580)
The political situation in France is dominated by the mobilization against the proposed reform of the pension system. This reform is at the heart of Sarkozy’s austerity policy. Although it is presented as an obvious demographic necessity, it is meeting increasing opposition in public opinion.


The mobilization has been growing since the start of the mobilizations in May and the first day of action in June. Since the beginning of September three days of strikes and demonstrations (the 7th and 23rd of September and the 2nd of October) have brought out 3 million people on each occasion. The CGT estimates that 5 million people have participated in the strikes and demonstrations since the start.
On each day of action, we have seen that there are more private sector workers, more young people – even high school students are beginning to mobilise and block their schools - and more radical demands.
Popular rejection of Sarkozy’s policies

The battle against the draft law on pensions also shows a massive rejection of the whole politics of Sarkozy. There is not only the question of the pension, numerous sectors are extremely mobilized, on strike on various topics: post offices, in hospitals, the nurse-anaesthetists, the dockers...
Faced with this resistance, the government is more and more unpopular. These accumulated difficulties are provoking a crisis within the right.
To try to reassert his control, Sarkozy has stressed his racist and security policies, in relation to the Roms in particular. But also in the last few weeks, the government has tried to make people forget the social question by advancing the terrorist danger. But without much success.
Dissatisfaction is growing and the situation is "explosive". Faced with the success of the demonstrations and strike days, the government has not moved and says that nothing will be changed in its proposal. The crisis and the debt (http://www.revleft.com/vb/#) are poor excuses to justify the reform.
Sarkozy and his government want their reform. Faced with the determination of the government, many workers know that to win it’s necessary to impose social determination.
Today, in numerous sectors, it is time for an all-out strike. For example in the RATP (Paris public transport system), the SNCF (French national railway company), but also in the chemical and engineering industries there is a possibility of a continuing srike from Tuesday. [1 (http://www.revleft.com/vb/#nb1)]
We know that the next day of strikes and demonstrations, on Tuesday 12th October, will be a success. And today, the idea that we can win is increasing.
The state of the movement

http://www.revleft.com/vb/puce.gif It is, at the moment, a very political movement. The strike rates are strong but not exceptional. The self-organization of the movement today, is very low. General assemblies in the various sectors have very low participation.
http://www.revleft.com/vb/puce.gif It is a unitarian movement. There is an inter-union coordinating committee [2 (http://www.revleft.com/vb/#nb2)], which gives the calendar of mobilisations but which is pushed by the intransigence of the government and by the very radical militant teams.
This movement is characterized by a massive refusal of the reform, a spectacular mistrust against the power, against Sarkozy but we don’t know what will be the end result of this confrontation. Everything is possible.
On the political level

The NPA participates with the whole French left including the PS, but without LO, in a unitarian campaign against the pensions reform .
This unitarian campaign, launched by Attac and the Copernic Foundation, is based on the demand of a pension at 60 years for all and the withdrawal of the law.
Although all the left agrees on these two demands, there are several disagreements.
The disagreement over demands is in particular with the Socialist Party. They agree with the demand of 60 years old as retirement age but they defend the idea that workers must work longer to get a full pension. And so they voted with the rightwing deputies for the increase of years worked to qualify for the full pension.
There are also disagreements about the strategy for winning against the government and obtaining the withdrawal of the draft law. There are disagreements with the Socialist Party but also with the Communist Party and Parti de gauche (Left Party). The Socialist Party ask us to wait for the next presidential elections in 2012 and the other political forces demand a referendum, turning the class struggle into an institutional question. They are all refusing the social confrontation necessary to win.
The NPA’s profile

Since the beginning of the mobilization, the NPA has worked in two directions:
http://www.revleft.com/vb/puce.gif The first : to be completely in the unitarian campaign, defending retirement at 60 years old with full pension. We also demand the withdrawal of the law. Olivier is the party spokesperson who has participated at the most unitarian meetings around the country.
http://www.revleft.com/vb/puce.gif For us, the main demand is the redistribution of wealth and the sharing of work. Our profile is clear, since last May we have been working for a massive social and political confrontation.
As the government is very unpopular, one of our demands is to sack Woerth, the labour minister, and president Sarkozy.


http://www.revleft.com/vb/puce.gifSandra Demarcq is a member of the Executive Committee of the New Anti-Capitalist pary (NPA) in France, and a member of the leadership of the Fourth International.


NOTES

[1 (http://www.revleft.com/vb/#nh1)] The right to strike is embodied in the French constitution. Trades unions have to give a “warning” (préavis) of a strike for the workers to be considered legally on strike. In these sectors there has been a préavis for a “reconductible” or all-out strike, that is one that is revoted each day by the workers.
[2 (http://www.revleft.com/vb/#nh2)] [The “intersyndical” brings together the five confederations, including two usually classed on the “right”, CGT, CFDT, FO, CGC and CFTC; the radical union SUD Solidaires with important implantation in the postal, transport and health sectors, FSU and UNSA (teachers and public sector)

[Lacrimi de Chiciură]

Ultimately, if this movement develops into a massive general strike the question of the government will be posed. Sarkozy has already been weakened by corruption scandals and by brutal expulsions of Roma gypsies. The leaders of the Communist Party and the Socialist Party should open call for the government to resign and early elections to be called. If they stood on the basis of a genuine socialist programme against the crisis they would get overwhelming support.

http://www.marxist.com/france-3-5-million-against-pension-reform-what-next.htm

The PCF or the PS call for revolution? Don't hold your breath. They are reformist parties.

[zimmerwald1915]

The PCF or the PS call for revolution? Don't hold your breath. They are reformist parties.
This. Any possible development of strikes longer than one day at a time a week or two apart, or god forbid organized consciously across multiple sectors, will have to come from workers on the ground. It won't come from the big left parties.

[KurtFF8]

Objectively, the thread title is right, but the likelihood of a workers' upheaval is small. Even though Sarkozy's support is at an historic low and more than two-thirds of the country is backing the strikes/protests, the union officials continue to reject calls for a general strike and back "negotiation". And even though the capitalists are demanding the state be used to break strikes, such as in Marseille, neither the unions nor the left have the stomach to call for armed workers' self-defense (to say nothing of actually agitating for it). Even if the university students do join the actions and further the feared "radicalization" of the protests, the most that will come of it is another May 1968 -- i.e., an upsurge with great potential, but ultimately a failure due to lack of workers' self-organization and perspective.

Exactly. And the cards aren't even lined up for it to be a May '68 repeat. The Communist Party is just as likely to join with the unions in political negotiation just like in 68, yet this time there isn't as much pressure from "radicals" to actually move beyond negotiations as there was leading up to the events of May 68.

The recent strike wave and protests are indeed a good step forward, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

[Martin Blank]

If you can read French, I would suggest checking out the blog set up by the Worker-Communist Initiative of Europe for the strikes and protests. The URL is http://engreve.wordpress.com/. It has short reports from cities where protests and strikes have been taking place.

[mossy noonmann]

2-300 schoolkids have just marched past my window!

the strikes are winding down in public transport but there are areas of localised struggle

the real battle looks like its going to be in the refineries

http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/infographie/2010/10/13/les-raffineries-francaises-au-ralenti_1425765_3224.html#ens_id=1305816

little map showing whats blocked etc for those that can't read french red is on strike green not on strike.

[mossy noonmann]

Exactly. And the cards aren't even lined up for it to be a May '68 repeat. The Communist Party is just as likely to join with the unions in political negotiation just like in 68, yet this time there isn't as much pressure from "radicals" to actually move beyond negotiations as there was leading up to the events of May 68.

The recent strike wave and protests are indeed a good step forward, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

I agree with this, although we have to remember that 68 was not a defensive fight like this one, it seems that the union leaderships, are becoming more and more desperate to try to maintain some sort of control over the movement (basic marxist theory anyone?) that they have called yet another day of action next tuesday shows in my view a complete lack of bottle.

However, it seems clear that the CRS have been given orders to go in hard, in certain places, a schoolkid in paris is in danger of losing an eye after being shot in the face with a 'flashball'.

there were over 2000 schoolkids demonstrating today in my town, things could change very quickly.

the question, as i see it , is when are the universities going join in on masse?

also the feeling is that after having lost a weeks wages those on strike are not going to back beaten whether thats in the refineries or the SNCF.

so if saturdays demos are big enough we could to start to talk about the end of sarko.

[zimmerwald1915]

We can gripe about their limitations all we want, but here in America it's you hardly see even dozens of workers on the street protesting at any given time.
'Course, in America the rules say they've got to stick to the sidewalk and march in circles. AFAIK, the US is the only country with that particular restriction. And of course the unions reinforce this restriction whenever the workers let them, that is to say the vast majority of times it comes up.

[The Grey Blur]

yeah, the schoolkids are out. about 2-3000 marched through my town today. some of the people on this board seem to confuse cynicism with pessimism. the pcf isn't a revolutionary party but it is the mass party of the working class and can play an important role and it's not 68 yet but anything can happen.

[mossy noonmann]

yeah, the schoolkids are out. about 2-3000 marched through my town today. some of the people on this board seem to confuse cynicism with pessimism. the pcf isn't a revolutionary party but it is the mass party of the working class and can play an important role and it's not 68 yet but anything can happen.

the pcf isn't a mass anything anymore it got eaten by the PS in the 80's and 90's and now it criticises the 'other left' for not doing what it did.
don't get me wrong there are some good people i know in the PCF but they should really admit that their strategy for the last 29 years has been a mistake.

what annoys me is that if the pcf did no deals with the PS then we could see a new left front emerge but until they decide to do that there is no chance. they are more interested in parliament at least the leadership is.

[The Grey Blur]

i'm not defending the policies of the stalinist leadership, but i still think it's the place to fight for a marxist program. but i'm no expert on the french left so i try not to hold any sectarian positions. are you going to the demonstrations tomorrow?

[Delenda Carthago]

Ultimately, if this movement develops into a massive general strike the question of the government will be posed. Sarkozy has already been weakened by corruption scandals and by brutal expulsions of Roma gypsies. The leaders of the Communist Party and the Socialist Party should open call for the government to resign and early elections to be called. If they stood on the basis of a genuine socialist programme against the crisis they would get overwhelming support.

http://www.marxist.com/france-3-5-million-against-pension-reform-what-next.htm
thats a really good way to destroy capitalism!:thumbup1:

[mossy noonmann]

i'm not defending the policies of the stalinist leadership, but i still think it's the place to fight for a marxist program. but i'm no expert on the french left so i try not to hold any sectarian positions. are you going to the demonstrations tomorrow?

The PCF act basically as the left wing of the PS, the PC are so dependent
on the money they get from having so many elected members of town, department and regional councils that they are tied to the PS electorally.

Although many members of the PCF want to see a clear break to the left of the PS like what happened in Limousin, nationally they just can't do it because the organisation would run out of money. The PCF are caught between the NPA and many smaller groupings and the PS who in reality could wipe the PCF out electorally if the PCF broke to the Left.

If your interested i could probably flesh this out a bit more for you

There are a load of decent lefties who support the PCF and i have found France a lot less secterian than the UK, this might be because they get on the TV and radio a million times more than in the UK. But also because they see themselves as the left, when i first moved here i went to a meeting with a representative from each left party speaking from the PS to LO via the greens and the party occitan.


Yep i'm going tomorrow, 2:30 i think it is could be good if the 'youth' turn up. The intersyndical have called for another day of action on Tuesday. that will be the sixth i think, if they had just called a six day strike at the start we would have won by now.

[mossy noonmann]

Usual stuff
here is the map showing the size of todays demos

http://www.lemonde.fr/societe/infographie/2010/10/16/la-carte-des-manifestations-du-16-octobre_1427018_3224.html

here is the follow minute by minute guide (in french)

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2010/10/16/suivez-la-journee-de-manifestation-en-direct_1427021_823448.html

i'm off to the demo now
well glass of wine then on the demo :)

[bricolage]

I hear oil refinery workers are being threatened with five years imprisonment if they continue to strike. Is this true?

[Dimentio]

Ultimately, if this movement develops into a massive general strike the question of the government will be posed. Sarkozy has already been weakened by corruption scandals and by brutal expulsions of Roma gypsies. The leaders of the Communist Party and the Socialist Party should open call for the government to resign and early elections to be called. If they stood on the basis of a genuine socialist programme against the crisis they would get overwhelming support.

http://www.marxist.com/france-3-5-million-against-pension-reform-what-next.htm

If they call for early elections, they won't remove the president, just his cabinet, meaning a new period of Co-habitation.

[Martin Blank]

I hear oil refinery workers are being threatened with five years imprisonment if they continue to strike. Is this true?

Yes, and Sarkozy has already ordered the riot police to break the oil workers' strike in Marseille. If he succeeds there, he'll likely order it for all of the refineries that are on strike. I was speaking with a comrade from France last night about this. It seems like this is the critical moment. If Sarko can break the oil strikes, then it could unleash a wave of demoralization that slows or stops the momentum of all the strikes and protests. If the workers can beat back the police violence, it could further "radicalize" the strikes and protests, and the traitorous collaborators heading the CGT, CFDT, etc., could lose control of them.