the postemployment economy

[bcbm]

In The Lights in the Tunnel, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that technologies such as software automation algorithms, artificial intelligence (AI), and robotics will result in dramatically increasing unemployment, stagnant or falling consumer demand, and a financial crisis surpassing the Great Depression.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics foresees automation and AI-assisted outsourcing restraining job growth, particularly in the field of office and administrative support. But the Bureau still anticipates growth in this sector of roughly 7.3 million job openings from 2008 to 2018, as well as growth in most others.

These forecasts are woefully optimistic, in Ford’s view. He says that mainstream economists do not consider the possibility of radical breakthroughs of automation technology when making their projections. In a worst-case scenario, every job that can conceivably be automated will be turned over to the robots. The unemployment rate under such a scenario defies easy calculation, but the current rate of 9% would look idyllic in retrospect.

Other potential effects of superautomation according to Ford include:
The high-profit, small-staff business model will rule. An example is the Web-based movie-rental company Netflix, which has effectively driven rival Blockbuster to bankruptcy. Consumer demand for goods will plummet as unemployment rises. Defaults on mortgages and consumer debt will reach unprecedented levels, and plunging values for housing and other assets will result in cascading financial crises. College enrollment will fall as potential students shy away from “knowledge worker” jobs that are susceptible to automation and off-shoring. Young people will instead compete for trade jobs in the occupations that can’t be automated. (Hypothetical examples here might include nursing or even specific types of high-tech machine repair.) Governments will face rising pressure to restrict technological progress. Organized labor may realize a last-ditch resurgence. High unemployment in developed countries will dramatically reduce demand for foreign-manufactured goods. The result may be social unrest and political instability in places like China as export trade crumbles. The U.S. government’s already dire projections for pensions and government entitlements will become even more dismal as wide unemployment among young people decimates payroll tax revenues. Sovereign debt crises—of the type playing out in Greece at the time of this writing — will spread as demand for government services outstrips revenue. Political battles will become even more heated, partisan, and irrational.

continued:
http://www.wfs.org/index.php?q=content/postemployment-economy

[ryacku]

People are always afraid of machines stealing jobs. But look at the industrial revolution. The information revolution. People are still employed. Maintaining the machines. And those machines improve the productivity of each individual. More wealth is created to be distributed.

[Summerspeaker]

People are always afraid of machines stealing jobs. But look at the industrial revolution. The information revolution. People are still employed. Maintaining the machines. And those machines improve the productivity of each individual. More wealth is created to be distributed.

This automation revolution won't necessarily function the same way. Because of improving artificial intelligence, robots might be able to take over a majority of the jobs humans currently perform within a few decades. This includes maintaining other machines. In a communist economy this would be awesome. Under capitalism, it may prove a disaster.

[bcbm]

People are always afraid of machines stealing jobs. But look at the industrial revolution. The information revolution. People are still employed. Maintaining the machines. And those machines improve the productivity of each individual.

it isn't just a matter of having a job, but about the quality of jobs people find after their previous occupation is automated. on the whole they tend to find jobs that pay less, offer less benefits, etc assuming they can find work. even after expensive and time consuming retraining this can be the case.


More wealth is created to be distributed.

wealth has been stratifying tremendously lately, i'm not sure what you mean.

[DenisDenis]

This automation revolution won't necessarily function the same way. Because of improving artificial intelligence, robots might be able to take over a majority of the jobs humans currently perform within a few decades. This includes maintaining other machines. In a communist economy this would be awesome. Under capitalism, it may prove a disaster.

In a communist economy this would be awesome. Under capitalism, it may well lead to a communist economy.

[bcbm]

Under capitalism, it may well lead to a communist economy.

yes, and the industrial revolution freed humanity from toil.

[Summerspeaker]

Automation should make capitalism's absurdity more and more obvious. Whether this leads to communism depends on what we do. I think there's considerable potential here. Some sort of guaranteed minimum income does seem almost inevitable if representative democracy endures.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

At the absolute least, increased automation and outsourcing should form the basis for a non-electoral campaign for reduced working hours and a three-day weekend, combined with a right to work, a genuine living wage and free education from cradle to grave for all.

Whether the ruling class is prepared to acquiesce to such demands is another question, but even in the event that they don't, the more data points that we collect and disseminate in favour of the hypothesis that everyone could work less and get more in a rationally organised society, the more propaganda ammunition we have against capitalism.

[hammer&sickle]

Whether the ruling class is prepared to acquiesce to such demands is another question, but even in the event that they don't, the more data points that we collect and disseminate in favour of the hypothesis that everyone could work less and get more in a rationally organised society, the more propaganda ammunition we have against capitalism.

Yes, the current trend in defecit reduction and austerity measures is about a ruling class shedding a class it no longer needs. This basic economic fact is the engine that drives all of the turmoil in the world today.

I found the Op's link informative although the author, a silicon valley entrepeneur, tries his best to tweak capitalism ala Rifkin's prescription in his "End of Work"

Nonetheless "Lights ina Tunnel" is a starting point..well worth the read.

[La Comédie Noire]

Either we will rid ourselves of wage labor as a fetter on the further advancement of the means of production or we will be content to struggle over the few service jobs left while those around us suffer physical and intellectual degradation. This will lead to a period stagnation and population decline as the commodity of labor is destroyed to the point where there becomes a scarcity again.

Marx said the former should happen, but there's nothing preventing the ladder.

[bricolage]

At the absolute least, increased automation and outsourcing should form the basis for a non-electoral campaign for reduced working hours and a three-day weekend, combined with a right to work, a genuine living wage and free education from cradle to grave for all.

Whether the ruling class is prepared to acquiesce to such demands is another question...
I don't even think it's worth asking the question. There seems no way in hell those demands will ever be met.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

I don't even think it's worth asking the question. There seems no way in hell those demands will ever be met.

The thing is, is anyone even making such demands? One would think that while demolishing capitalism would be beyond the pale for most, the idea of a three-day weekend still has widespread appeal, at least in theory.

It strikes me that the left as a whole is too demoralised to make even such minor demands.

[bricolage]

The thing is, is anyone even making such demands? One would think that while demolishing capitalism would be beyond the pale for most, the idea of a three-day weekend still has widespread appeal, at least in theory.

It strikes me that the left as a whole is too demoralised to make even such minor demands.
I don't think its about the left being demoralised but that we are in a climate where what little workers 'have' is being constantly eroded and fought back. To ask those in parliamant and board rooms to give us more time off work (with no drop in pay obviously) when they are trying to push for the exact opposite seems foolish at best.

[ÑóẊîöʼn]

I don't think its about the left being demoralised but that we are in a climate where what little workers 'have' is being constantly eroded and fought back.

What's the difference? There should be a hell of a lot more noise over things than there is now.


To ask those in parliamant and board rooms to give us more time off work (with no drop in pay obviously) when they are trying to push for the exact opposite seems foolish at best.

It seems to me that as a class we are not demanding anything in a major way, even if we rightfully deserve it by the standards of capitalism.

[bricolage]

What's the difference? There should be a hell of a lot more noise over things than there is now.
Well obviously, but I don't think we can put it down to 'the left' being demoralised, if anyone is demoralised it is workers themselves and I don't think the former is representative of the latter.


It seems to me that as a class we are not demanding anything in a major way, even if we rightfully deserve it by the standards of capitalism.
Yes I think this is true too but you can't just whip demands out of thin air they have to be built on the back of existing militancy and struggle. Demands will originate, radicalise and grow as such struggle does, not the other way around.

[Pawn Power]

for many young black men in philly, it is already a post-employment society with over 50% unemployment.