Will Cuba soon collapse?

[Dimentio]

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/09/13/cuba.economy/index.html

This could prove to be a complete disaster. 500 000 jobs is a lot of jobs, and given that competition tend to beat out a lot of private companies, especially in a country which doesn't have so much credit, unemployment could come to rise even more than the government would anticipate, creating a snowball which could sweep away the entire system in a few years.

Your thoughts?

[Nolan]

It's going to be similar to China, although probably worse. There will probably be protests over the further erosion of job security, and the state will have to crack down.

[Dimentio]

It's going to be similar to China, although probably worse. There will probably be protests over the further erosion of job security, and the state will have to crack down.

If it doesn't collapse.

[Nolan]

I don't think it will collapse. More likely we're just looking at another "market socialist" country.

[Rusty Shackleford]

im very wary of commenting on cuba right now. im very nervous about it to be honest.

500,000 jobs of a population of 11,000,000 is pretty steep.

[Nolan]

500,000 jobs of a population of 11,000,000 is pretty steep.

That combined with the cancellation of income for those without work is basically the government asking for massive riots.

[hemlock]

The US has been saying (and praying) Cuba will collapse for the last 40 years. Change, maybe, but collapse no. If anything, they will model themselves after china. Considering how good of friends they are to russia, china and spain, and how the US is falling like a rock out of a plane economically, Cuba isnt in that bad of shape.

Likewise, because of its size a high extent of government control, it can change course fairly fast (example-china), something that even the US couldnt do if it wanted to and did not have far rightist republicans blocking the government (from the near rightist democrats).

[Obs]

Am I the only one taking anything CNN says with a shaker of salt? They've likely skewed this to seem worse than it is, though I'm not denying Cuba's in a crisis right now.

[CleverTitle]

Am I the only one taking anything CNN says with a shaker of salt? They've likely skewed this to seem worse than it is, though I'm not denying Cuba's in a crisis right now.
Agreed. I mean, Cuba is clearly in a rough spot right now, but it's not as if CNN would be letting us know if anything positive was happening.

EDIT: And at the main topic, I certainly don't see Cuba collapsing anytime soon. As others have said, if anything it will probably go the way of the PRC.

[Nolan]

I think some people are just in denial. Cuba said they were laying off those workers.

[Tatarin]

Keep in mind that those countries that didn't change their government to openly capitalist did end up with "market socialism", as mentioned above. With DPRK in essence waiting for Kim Jong Il to die to place a Korean Xiaoping in his place and Cuba now, it seems the last of "closest to socialism" is gone.

But it should not be overlooked that both DPRK and Cuba were in almost impossible situations during these last 20 years.

However, we shouldn't loose hope about the Cuban people...

[TwoSevensClash]

I pray to God that it doesn't become US dominated again.

[Die Neue Zeit]

Given that the Cuban regime could still play the anti-American card, going the market route, however unpalatable it is, could open trade and investment opportunities with Brazil, Argentina, and some European countries. Cuba could divert any of its meager exports to the US towards the countries I mentioned and more.

[AK]

I don't think it will collapse. More likely we're just looking at another "market socialist" country.
http://i586.photobucket.com/albums/ss308/labaz7/tito1.jpg
Tito approves.

[The Vegan Marxist]

http://i586.photobucket.com/albums/ss308/labaz7/tito1.jpg
Tito approves.

If it can protect Cuba from collapsing, then we all should approve.

[NecroCommie]

If it can protect Cuba from collapsing, then we all should approve.
Not correct. Cuba is not a value in itself. It only has value as a worker's state.

[Saorsa]

Not correct. Cuba is not a value in itself. It only has value as a worker's state.

I agree. It's too early to say exactly what this means, but it's deeply concerning.

[Saorsa]

Not correct. Cuba is not a value in itself. It only has value as a worker's state.

I agree. It's too early to say exactly what this means, but it's deeply concerning.

[Nolan]

If it can protect Cuba from collapsing, then we all should approve.

Sometimes I think that if Fidel jumped from a skyscraper you'd follow you.

[4 Leaf Clover]

If it can protect Cuba from collapsing, then we all should approve.

Definitely not. Private companies and private property leads to class division and no fucking way someone can convince me im supposed to support states like China who have billionaries and international corporations. I don't get where does it lead to support every country that has some form of red or white star on its flag

[pranabjyoti]

I think some people are just in denial. Cuba said they were laying off those workers.
Source please.

[RadioRaheem84]

I assumed this was an effort to make room for the cooperatives?

I doubt there will be actual privately owned capitalist incentive businesses.

[Jolly Red Giant]

I assumed this was an effort to make room for the cooperatives?

I doubt there will be actual privately owned capitalist incentive businesses.
Its an effort to dig a way out of an economic crisis by dumping upwards of 1 million workers out of a job while doing away with welfare payments.

[Davie zepeda]

It's time for us as socialist to become more competitive than the capitalist and develop a strong economy, thus preparing are future generations As of now all we can do is wait for capital to become overwhelming and consolidate power. Possibly this could be a good thing if played right, this is an opportunity for Cuba to be a leader in Latin America not only in ideology but economically as well, because if this works, and their economy jumps, they will be not only a universal society with health and education but with trade Soon there products will be on demand in central and south America. Down With the Imperialist now we make our own alternative markets until there collapse ! Hail victory! indirect tactics will beat them not direct, I promise in a ten years that the most dominate economies will be Vietnam,china in Asia, and Cuba in Latin America

[Nolan]

It's time for us as socialist to become more competitive than the capitalist and develop a strong economy, thus preparing are future generations As of now all we can do is wait for capital to become to overwhelming. Possibly this could be a good thing if played right, this is an opportunity for Cuba to be a leader in Latin America not only in ideology but economically as well, because if this works, and their economy jumps they will be not only a universal society with health and education but with trade Soon there products will be on demand in central and south America. Down With the Imperialist now we make our own alternative markets until yours collapse ! Hail victory! indirect tactic will beat them not direct.

What?

[Nolan]

Source please.

Uh...?

[Lenin II]

My answer is no.

They have already liberalized to a great extent and under the new leadership are doing more, but despite these changes the Communist Party of Cuba still provides well for the people. Their health care system and 0% infant malnutrition alone say much.

If Raul gets his way chances are Cuba will go the way of China:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/09/13/world/main6862281.shtml

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/08/27/world/main6812281.shtml?source=related_story

That said, the Cuban government has a great deal of legitimacy in opposing US imperialism, etc.

It will certainly change for the worse if they don't change their political line, but it certainly will not collapse anytime soon.

[KurtFF8]

To the op question: I doubt it and certainly hope not.

It does seem that this particular move is in the direction of market socialism. Let's not forget that today the communist party of Cuba announced it already found replacement work for all they're about to lay off. And those new jobs will either be worker coops (ie worker owned) small local business or employed by foreign joint ventures (the most concerning to us I would think we can all agree). I don't know what percent of each category the layedoff workers will go to but that's an important thing to watch for as it will help tell which direction the country is going.

So overall: too soon to tell (unless you're the western media painting this as the immenent collapse of socialism for Cuba which we should all be quite suspicious of)

[RadioRaheem84]

We have to wait and see. There is a similarity, although I am told that the Cubans have decided that they wish to avoid the social problems engendered by the Chinese reforms.
What is perhaps emerging is an attempt to create a new hybrid model - I found it interesting that recently at the ALBA summit it was declared that Venezuela and Cuba are now seeking to create an economic union. The thing is that the two systems are so economically different!
However, I note also that Chavez has encourgaed the creation of cooperatives and so I think to myself... maybe Cuba is moving away from a Soviet style centrally planned state owned economy towards a regulated market driven system while Chavez is trying to move Venezuela away form free market capitalism towards a more state controlled system ... perhaps they hope to coverge in the middle?
Or am I being too starry eyed....?

Dr Stephen Wilkinson


More from the professor I emailed who wrote the Guardian article.

[Uppercut]

This should have been expected. Cuba's weak state-capitalist economy cannot sustain itself without proper industrialization, which is should have done decades ago after the Cuban revolution took place. Now it's too late to save their economy through their commodity-based planning, so they are looking for alternatives. Unfortunately, the best solution that would work in the beaurocrat's favor is "market socialism" in the wake of Dengist China. That way they can still proclaim "socialism" while backhanding the workers.

That being said, seeing as how Cuba never really adopted Marxism-Leninism, I would still strongly oppose these economic reforms. Privatization never turns out in favor of those who actually work for these companies and the fact that the revisionist elite are proclaiming that "the cuban economic model does not work" only allows them to show their true colors. This is a serious disappointment. It is far too late for Cuba to industrialize and build up an independent economy. It just can't happen in this epoch, seeing the limited amount of trade partners it has.

[Roach]

This should have been expected. Cuba's weak state-capitalist economy cannot sustain itself without proper industrialization, which is should have done decades ago after the Cuban revolution took place. Now it's too late to save their economy through their commodity-based planning, so they are looking for alternatives. Unfortunately, the best solution that would work in the beaurocrat's favor is "market socialism" in the wake of Dengist China. That way they can still proclaim "socialism" while backhanding the workers..


Exactly.

Those reforms became inevitable after Fidel sold the country to Kruschev.I am actually impressed with the amount of time that Cuba was able to survive without Soviet help.

[Davie zepeda]

What do you need clarification with?

[Davie zepeda]

It's not to late for it to industrialize this is the perfect time to do this, capitalism is in crisis. We must use the tactics of our enemies if not then we will lose this battle. Why Do you fear Cuba rebuilding it's economy? These are the necessary measure we have to be objective! What is necessary for Cuba to advance now let's think of the real ground problems in Cuba. Now how would you resolve these issues? Realistically

[Die Neue Zeit]

Cuba already industrialized. Throughout the latter years of the Cold War it was the most industrialized Central American country.