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Lacrimi de Chiciură
3rd August 2010, 02:10
Partially as an exercise in speculation and creative writing, and partially just for fun, I am trying to create a framework for a story set in the near future (2028), involving political developments in the United States. I would like for people to make any comments, suggestions, criticisms, or things you would change, etc.

Here it goes:


The present (2010): President Obama continues to fail to deliver on promises of change. Occupations in Iraq and Afghanistan continue.
2012: Republicans run Tim Pawlenty for president with Jeb Bush as his running mate. Americans, although increasingly disillusioned with the 2 party system, reelect Obama and Biden, who many see as the lesser of two evils.
President Obama's second term in office (2012-2016): The economic recession turns into a depression. National unemployment hits 45%. Democrats become increasingly divided and in 2015 a caucus within the Democratic Party breaks off to form the Democratic-Labor Party.
2016: Glenn Beck announces his candidacy for president. Joe Biden runs for president as the Democratic candidate. Keith Ellison, formerly a democratic senator from Minnesota, runs on the Democratic-Labor ticket. Beck runs an emotional campaign, accusing the black Muslim Ellison of not being a "true American" and blaming the depression on Obama's "big government spending." Beck's populism, coupled with the split within the Democratic Party gets him elected, although he only wins 38% of the popular vote.
2016-2017: President Beck proposes "to allow the free market to bring us out of the depression." New legislation cuts essentially all social welfare programs and public education now exists solely in charter schools which receive funding only if they teach the Beck administration's religious-militarist curriculum. At the same time, higher education becomes unaffordable for the vast majority of people. Cities become increasingly ghettoized while massive shanty towns surround all major metropolises. Beck accuses the African-American community of not providing support for its people, and uses this argument to institute the Universal National Service Act of 2017, requiring everyone ages 18-42 to serve a mandatory 2 year period of service in the United States Armed Forces.
2018: President Beck begins "strategic bombing" campaigns against Iran, Egypt, Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Somalia. Mass protests occur, but alternative political forces lack the organization necessary to stop the bombings. Bill Maher is elected governor (DL) of New York.
2019: President Beck deploys 500,000 troops to Iran and 150,000 troops to Somalia. The military-industrial complex has grown massively in the first 3 years of the Beck presidency; and with few other opportunities available at home, many draftees re-enlist. Beck is very close with top military leaders, and together they use and develop new brainwashing techniques on soldiers.
2020: The world is shocked and outraged by the invasions of Iran and Somalia. President Beck, who has built his entire presidency around megalomaniacal delusions, spends most of his time grooming the military and ignoring the needs of the general public. Bill Maher announces that he wants to become America's first atheist president. Maher runs on an anti-war campaign of bourgeois atheist "new enlightenment" and makes vague references to "real change." Casualties in Iran and Somalia run high and the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan continue relentlessly.
2021-2022: President Bill Maher of the Democratic-Labor Party sworn in, moves to withdraw most US troops from abroad. As President Maher cuts the size and funding of the military, the Beckite generals and soldiers feel robbed of their livelihood. The returning military leaders rally the brainwashed Glenn Beck supporters and use the returning troops to hold the government hostage. President Maher flees to Britain. Beck refuses to step down, claiming an atheist president is unconstitutional. Activists in various communities recognize this as an opportunity to fight back against the Beck administration and to make gains under the new Maher administration; a campaign to "occupy the cities" is launched by a united front of youth and workers. Barricades are erected in major cities to keep Beckite troops out. The Beckite troops besiege rebelling cities, depriving them of electricity, water, sewage, etc. After several weeks, some refugees are allowed to leave the cities, but the dedicated stay. The Beckite troops move in to secure the cities, slaughtering hundreds of thousands of resisters and civilians in the process. In Pennsylvania, either due to fighting or negligence, a nuclear power plant meltdown occurs, causing 12 million people to be displaced in the already unstable country. The 12 million refugees, living in tents in the countryside, organize themselves under a Marxist leadership, and are supported by thousands of left-wing activists from around the country. The refugees, disgusted by FEMA's negligent response to the nuclear disaster, decide that enough is enough, and form a ragtag but 700,000 person strong militia to march to Washington DC to begin seizing political power for the working class. Bill Maher, still in exile and alarmed by this development, betrays the people and offers full support to the Beckites. The military, once divided between Beck supporters and Maher supporters, are now all following the same orders: secure DC and prevent the chaos that will surely follow if the ignorant masses seize power. After a month of fighting, DC is smoldering pile of rubble and 1.5 million people are dead. Across the country, people find the death and destruction unbelievable, and most just want a return to some degree of normalcy. The military leaders realize that they need to get rid of Glenn Beck to be taken seriously now, so he is quietly taken out. In other areas of the country, all sorts of radicals and activists are targeted for assassination by government death squads. Some find easy refuge in autonomous regions of Mexico and Cuba.
2023: Military leaders appoint Chelsea Clinton as interim president to recreate a sense of security and put a happy face over the conflict. President Clinton declares the return of constitutional law and order.
2024: With the "return to normalcy" and most radical activists dead or in exile, the country goes back to the familiar 2 party system. Mike Huckabee runs as the Republican candidate on a campaign of conservative reconciliation and "making America great again." Clinton reelected. Nothing changes.

Il Medico
3rd August 2010, 02:26
lol at the American left being able to rally anything.

DecDoom
3rd August 2010, 04:20
Disturbingly plausible up until the 12 million refugees turn to Marxism. Unfortunately, I doubt that would happen, even if it became obvious that Capitalism was playing a major role in the instability. Even during this recession, it seems the average poverty-stricken and out of work American can't (or won't) make the connection between their suffering and Capitalism.

On the off chance it DID happen, I'll bet the 12 million refugees would be split into 6 different sects, each claiming to hold the people's true interests and have the best plan for America. There would likely be fighting among the sects, and worse case scenario, the Beck-Maher military alliance could simply step back and wait for the American left to destroy itself, and then just clean up afterward.

x359594
3rd August 2010, 06:04
Philip Roth wrote a very good novel along these lines called The Plot Against America in which Charles A. Lindbergh defeats FDR for his unprecedented third term and keeps America out of war by concluding a non-aggression pact with Germany with a promise from Hitler not to invade England. Next Lindbergh meets Prince Konoye in Hawai'i and signs a gentleman's agreement with Imperial Japan that acknowledges Japan's rights and interests in Manchuria while giving US business interests trading privileges and recognizing the territorial integrity of the American Philippines.

Next Lindbergh sets up the Office of Assimilation that re-locates Jews and other ethnic minorities to strategic hamlets scattered throughout the South and Southwest. This is followed by FBI raids on "Bolshevik" subversives. The novel is told from the viewpoint of young Philip Roth who lives in Newark, New Jersey and is a plausible account of how the US could have slid into fascism during the 1940s.

howblackisyourflag
3rd August 2010, 15:23
Some of that seems possible, but what I am sure of is that the decades of peace the West has had will come to an end over the next few decades. I know every generation probably says the same thing, but with all the madness going on in the world, I cant see things staying the way they are. Does anyone agree?

Raúl Duke
3rd August 2010, 18:15
The amount of variables your prediction takes in makes your scenario unlikely...especially when you state that xyz person will be this or that. One can make predictions of social forces, but not much on the actions of individuals.

For one, if Glenn was elected and just cut off programs and ran a conscription service deemed racist for targeting African-Americans than social upheaval will reach astronomic levels rendering the whole American system on the brink until those policies are rescinded and Beck is out, making it likely that "civil war" or insurrection to take place before some Democrat is sworn in. Also, don't get your hopes up that Maher will win anything.


Military leaders appoint Chelsea Clinton as interim president

hahaha


With the "return to normalcy" and most radical activists dead or in exile, the country goes back to the familiar 2 party system. Mike Huckabee runs as the Republican candidate on a campaign of conservative reconciliation and "making America great again." Clinton reelected. Nothing changes

Considering that something like a coup/civil war broke out...the mentality of many will have certainly changed. America will never be the same after what you described to be honest.

Os Cangaceiros
3rd August 2010, 18:30
The part where Glenn Beck wins the presidential election is when the whole story falls down the proverbial rabbit hole.

ComradeOm
3rd August 2010, 19:11
The amount of variables your prediction takes in makes your scenario unlikely...especially when you state that xyz person will be this or thatIndeed. Particularly so when the success of the entire scenario relies on each unlikely step (which naturally get more and more unlikely as the chain progresses) firing correctly. If any one of these milestones fails to occur... well that knocks everything out. Which is why a good alt-history scenario relies on a relatively simple point of departure

praxis1966
3rd August 2010, 20:09
The part where Glenn Beck wins the presidential election is when the whole story falls down the proverbial rabbit hole.

Obviously. He'd have to take a pay cut to become president. Can't have that.

Lacrimi de Chiciură
4th August 2010, 01:50
The amount of variables your prediction takes in makes your scenario unlikely...especially when you state that xyz person will be this or that. One can make predictions of social forces, but not much on the actions of individuals.

Social forces are made by the actions of individuals.
It is improbable, but to a certain extent any fully thought-out, future situation with a large amount of variables is improbable.To fully imagine a future situation there are almost infinite possibilities. But if fiction about the future takes into account trends that are going on in the present, it becomes somewhat believable because the story is bound to get some things right, right? Upton Sinclair wrote The Millennium in the early 20th century. It was set in 2000 and I think vaguely predicted cell phones or something. (2000 was the future when it was written!) Wow! Time is such a mindfuck concept.


For one, if Glenn was elected and just cut off programs and ran a conscription service deemed racist for targeting African-Americans than social upheaval will reach astronomic levels rendering the whole American system on the brink until those policies are rescinded and Beck is out, making it likely that "civil war" or insurrection to take place before some Democrat is sworn in. Also, don't get your hopes up that Maher will win anything.Perhaps a complimentary narrative needs to be developed to monitor the emergence of racism as an active political force during Obama's second term. Further developing each point make this textual rendering of the future more structured.


Considering that something like a coup/civil war broke out...the mentality of many will have certainly changed. America will never be the same after what you described to be honest.My first post's narrative is basically tracing America's future bourgeois political evolution. I am trying to imagine a future situation where there would be a high amount class consciousness and political awareness. To fully imagine a future situation, it would be necessary to develop a complimentary narrative of proletarian political evolution. In what ways could class consciousness grow in the coming years? Hypothetically, How would future leftists respond to these developments (a great depression in 2012-2016, A right wing extremist president, a military coup, etc.)?

Lenina Rosenweg
4th August 2010, 02:24
The rough outline of the scenario sounds plausible. I don't think Obama will be reelected. Right now he's coming off as increasingly weak. People gravitate to whoever comes off as most "radical" so by 2012 the Republicans will find someone w/a semi-Tea Party past to put up. No matter who is POTUS the Forever War will continue. There will be increasing moves towards a US war w/Iran. As irrational as this would be, I think its pretty likely within the next 2 years. The only way out of the crisis within the confines of capitalism itself is a deflationary blow out as in WWI-WWII. The long range trends are towards a US confrontation w/China and Russia.

There may be a new US Labor party emerging from disenchanted liberals. This will take a very long time to develop but it is a possibility. It would provide an opening for types of "entyism" by the revolutionary left.

Working class militancy will be very slow to takeoff-the Democrats and decades of propaganda have seen to that. It will accelerate in Europe and elsewhere.

A revival of class militancy will probably be led by Hispanics. Maybe a gradual or not so gradual revival of the labor movement, completly outside the confines of today's business unions.

Depending on the class struggle abroad and how threatened the US ruling class feels itself to be they may stage an internal military crackdown. It could be a gradual militarization. The ruling class would be reluctant to reinstate a draft but it could happen if there's a destabilizing war with Iran or China.

Rusty Shackleford
4th August 2010, 10:16
remember, glenn beck is going blind because of an eye disorder.