Australian leadership to be contested

[AK]

EDIT: Never mind. No resignation yet. Leadership being contested tomorrow.
Well shit. Now the thread title is misleading. Can a mod maybe change it?
EDIT 2: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/23/2935356.htm


Labor to dump Rudd for Gillard

By political editor Chris Uhlmann (http://www.abc.net.au/profiles/content/s1860770.htm?site=news)
Updated 21 minutes ago
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201006/r589494_3763764.jpg (http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201006/r589494_3763769.jpg) Kevin Rudd and his deputy Julia Gillard


Kevin Rudd looks likely to be dumped as Prime Minister.
Factional powerbrokers have spoken to the ABC and are awaiting the outcome of a meeting between Deputy Leader Julia Gillard and Mr Rudd.
The move against Mr Rudd began several weeks ago in a discussion between Mark Arbib and David Feeney from the NSW right faction.
The pair met Ms Gillard this morning and by noon had told her they had the support of the NSW right, the SA right and the WA right.
They told her that the party could not win the next election with Mr Rudd as Prime Minister but with her they could go forward with a strong message.
The two powerbrokers said even without having picked up the phone they would get a 60-40 split on the right, with the left split down the middle.
Mr Feeney and Mr Arbib said they had done their work and were now waiting to see the outcome of the discussion with Ms Gillard.
Senior party strategists and some cabinet ministers are now convinced Mr Rudd cannot win the next election.
One senior party source said: "This crypto-facist made no effort to build a base within the party and now his only faction - Newspoll - has deserted him. He is gone."
Labor sources do not believe there is any way back for Mr Rudd from this crisis.

[Obs]

Australia: The World's Biggest, Dumbest Circus

(I'm not deliberately lurking for threads about Australia to get the first post, I swear.)

[AK]

Australia: The World's Biggest, Dumbest Circus

(I'm not deliberately lurking for threads about Australia to get the first post, I swear.)
Now with Platypuses and Kangaroos, along with other freaks of nature (like Liberal politicians).

[Demogorgon]

It is ironic because Rudd managed very good poll ratings for a long time, I suppose at a certain point not being John Howard ceases to be enough.

[Chambered Word]

You beat me to it. Chalk up yet another Labor fuckup.

'Labor in talks to oust Rudd' http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/06/23/2935224.htm


Labor in talks to oust Rudd

By political editor
(http://www.abc.net.au/profiles/content/s1860770.htm?site=news)
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's leadership is under siege tonight from some of the Labor Party's most influential factional warlords.
The ABC has learned that powerful party figures have been secretly canvassing numbers for a move to dump the Prime Minister and replace him with his deputy, Julia Gillard.
Television cameras captured Ms Gillard and Defence Minister John Faulkner going into Mr Rudd's office. They have since been joined by Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner, Anthony Albanese and Senator Joe Ludwig.
Factional support for Mr Rudd has collapsed around the country and the Australian Workers Union (AWU) is now supporting Ms Gillard.
The ABC understands that senior ministers are in shock at how quickly all this has unfolded. One senior minister told ABC "this is madness".
Earlier, Senator Faulkner was being interviewed by the 7.30 Report's Kerry O'Brien when he was told of the news.
"I don't know what's on ABC news all I know is I've been sitting here talking to you. It might be on the ABC news and it's also news to me," Senator Faulkner said.
Ministers and party members have been lining up all week to voice their support for Mr Rudd but behind the scenes, party leaders have been contemplating a leadership change.
Although Mr Rudd looks likely to survive the challenge, news of the attempted coup will undoubtedly weaken him.
It is understood that the only thing holding the Prime Minister up is that his deputy refuses to join in a bid to bring him down.
A series of bad poll results have seen the ALP's primary vote tracking as low as 33 per cent.
The polls dived after a series of policy bungles and backflips made by the Government, including shelving the emissions trading scheme.
Any serious talk of a challenge is the last thing Mr Rudd needs as the Government prepares for the election.
However, if MPs want to act they will have to do so quickly.
Tomorrow will be the last sitting day before Federal Parliament breaks over winter.
This means that if a challenge was to be made against Mr Rudd to install Ms Gillard before the next election, it would have to be done tomorrow before MPs leave to go back to their electorate.
Earlier today it was revealed that the Prime Minister's chief of staff, Alistair Jordan, had been contacting Labor MPs to discuss the Government's performance.
On Friday Mr Rudd will travel to Canada for the Group of 20 leaders' meeting.


This article was published just today and may be of value to read: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/deal-with-mess-backbenchers-tell-kevin-rudd/story-e6frgczf-1225882980345


KEVIN Rudd has been told by a nervous back bench to solve the row over the resource super-profits tax immediately. They have also told him the PM to "deal with" the crisis of illegal boat arrivals after yesterday overcoming the spectre of leadership threats.
As Opposition Leader Tony Abbott put his MPs on a war footing, telling them they were in line for a "famous victory", Labor powerbrokers conceded it was now too late to change the leadership of the party despite growing fears of an election loss.
After surviving the last scheduled Labor caucus meeting before the long winter break, the Prime Minister became noticeably more positive in parliament.
...



The rest of Labor aren't interested in trying to get the super profits tax through. It looks like they're going to put Gilliard in power and cave in to the mining companies.

There's a ballot called for 9 am tomorrow, none of us are going to have a say who is 'democratically elected' of course. Gilliard is saying she has no interest in taking over for Rudd, which is exactly what Tony Abbott said before he took control of the Liberal Party from Turnbull. Labor doesn't want to make themselves look unstable, they don't want to lose this election.

[Proletarian Ultra]

What'd Rudd do? Last I paid attention he was fairly popular.

[Saorsa]

Rudd has resigned, Gillard (the left wing, socialist, trade unionist radical oh yeah!!! :rolleyes:) is now PM. She's Australia's first female PM.

Can any Aussie comrades give us some analysis of this? I haven't been following Australian politics and this came as a bit of a surprise to me.

[Bilan]

It pretty much happened over night. Yesterday afternoon, there were rumours from parliament that there were moves in side the Labour Party to oust Rudd and have him replaced. Gillard, however, hadn't "thrown her hat in" yet. This was only yesterday.
The moves to oust him came from the Victoria section of the ALP.
It, according to the news papers, has a lot to do with his dwindling support (which is also of scarcely any significance, as the support for the Liberal Party is not rising. The only party who has a support base that is increasing is the Greens), his policies on Asylum seekers, and also Mining Super Profit Tax, which has caused outrage among the Miners Council (a notoriously right wing body), the Conservative Party (i.e. the Liberal Party) and every other laissez-faire, right wing group in Australia.
(Ironically, it has been praised by the IMF).

Of course, the significance of this is relatively limited.
It's little more than a last attempt to regain the confidence of the Australian public with new elections looming.

[Bilan]

It is ironic because Rudd managed very good poll ratings for a long time, I suppose at a certain point not being John Howard ceases to be enough.

John Howard's ability to stay elected had nothing to do with skill, or popularity. He consistently ran fear campaigns at every single election, and was notorious for it.
The problem was, he managed to scare the living shit out of everyone who inhabited this over-weight island.

In addition to that, Howard's policies made the majority of people in this country very, very unhappy.
But the prevailing attitude was that in this climate of fear, we have to make concessions...to our rights...our wages...our existence...political accountability...

[AK]

We vote for one guy and then his party decides to throw him and out and replace him with someone else - who we didn't vote for. Bourgeois "democracy" in action.

[Bilan]

This, it turns out, was a major move by the right faction to oust Rudd for his position on asylum seekers, which it turns out was regarded as "to lenient" and they demanded a firmer stance (meaning, more akin to that of the previous governments), and also, the "blunder" that resulted from the Super Profits tax on mining companies.
The obvious point of this last one is that right wing members of the labor party (particularly the scummy trade union leaders) are concerned about this tax disrupting the relationship between the party and the Miners Council, as well as mining companies - a very influential group of people in Australia.

In addition to this, it has been revealed by the SMH (and other papers) that there were personal vendettas underpinning this campaign.

The moves came mainly from the right, and far right factions in the Labor Party, as well as some of the unions. The Left Factions supported the move, as most of them were behind Gillard from the get-go (particularly the Victoria left-faction in the ALP)

The choice of Gillard seems relatively self explanatory, despite her "allegiance" with the left wing of the Labor party: Gillard had bolstered enough support with the Left, and with the desire of the right to knock Rudd out, she was the first, and easiest choice.
In addition to this, ever since her moves up into the higher ranks of the Labor party, she has taken further turns to the right.

In a way, this is quite a sad day, as this could bring in a series of horrible, xenophobic changes in legislation against asylum seekers: people who in Australia have a pretty horrendous time.
The interesting aspect is, if this manoeuvre fails (in the sense that Labors popularity doesn't ascend again), the next election will be interesting, as neither the Labor party, nor the Liberal party have growing support base, but instead, a depleting one. The only party growing in Australia is the Greens.
What is most likely, if things continue as they are, is that Australia will end up much like England: with a coalition between an independent, third party (The Greens) and the conservatives (The Liberal party).

[JacobVardy]

What is most likely, if things continue as they are, is that Australia will end up much like England: with a coalition between an independent, third party (The Greens) and the conservatives (The Liberal party).

I like the rest of your analysis but this not going to happen. If it did, NSW and Vic Greens (about 65% of the party) would leave the Australian Greens. There were serious discussions about NSW leaving when Tasmanian Greens proposed a coalition with the Liberals.

[Yazman]

We vote for one guy and then his party decides to throw him and out and replace him with someone else - who we didn't vote for. Bourgeois "democracy" in action.

Wait, what? I would expect to hear this from uninformed people but not somebody at Revleft of all places.

Nobody voted for 'kevin rudd', they voted for the labour party. He was just the candidate for PM at the time, but in bourgeois general elections you are always voting for the party itself and never the individual.

[AK]

Wait, what? I would expect to hear this from uninformed people but not somebody at Revleft of all places.

Nobody voted for 'kevin rudd', they voted for the labour party. He was just the candidate for PM at the time, but in bourgeois general elections you are always voting for the party itself and never the individual.
Yes, that was an uneducated statement on my part. But you have to realise that Australians knew that their vote for a specific politician in their electorate was also a vote for his/her party's candidate. I'm not saying it's fair, I'm just saying that's how it is with this system.

[Sir Comradical]

Rudd has resigned, Gillard (the left wing, socialist, trade unionist radical oh yeah!!! :rolleyes:) is now PM. She's Australia's first female PM.

Can any Aussie comrades give us some analysis of this? I haven't been following Australian politics and this came as a bit of a surprise to me.

1. Rudd wanted to impose massive taxes on mining company profits.
2. The mining companies launched scare campaigns against the tax.
3. The Labor party felt that the mining company campaigns could lose them the next election.
4. Rudd is deposed.
5. Julia Gillard vowed in her first address to "renegotiate" the tax.

[Chambered Word]

1. Rudd wanted to impose massive taxes on mining company profits.
2. The mining companies launched scare campaigns against the tax.
3. The Labor party felt that the mining company campaigns could lose them the next election.
4. Rudd is deposed.
5. Julia Gillard vowed in her first address to "renegotiate" the tax.

The tax was ridiculous in the first place but the whole thing really turned into a total clusterfuck when the mining companies started taking action against it.

It was to be a 40% tax on super profits, most of which none of us were going to see anyway. They already pay a very small rate when you consider just how much profits are really being made by the mining companies in WA: http://newmatilda.com/2010/05/26/digging-figures-mining-profits

The Rudd government was already compromising with the mining companies in the first place:


Sweeteners for the “super profits” tax – yet mining corporations want more!


The tax becomes a grant if projects aren’t profitable
$300,000 cash back for every dollar $1m spent on exploration
Infrastructure from a $22 billion federal fund
Commonwealth pays state resource royalties for the corporations
Fast-tracked depreciation and other incentives stay
Tax rate on company profits reduced from 30% to 28% over two years and a medium term target of 25%



(From CPA - The Guardian http://www.cpa.org.au/guardian/2010/1459/01-wanted-real-super-profit-tax.html)

I'm not sure what the figure on how much was going back into tax cuts for large businesses, I think it was 28% out of the 40% rate. The point is, the fact that there was even a debate over such a pathetic tax imposed on the rich is incredible. To top it all off now Julia Gillard is almost definately going to scrap it altogether.

I cannot believe the letters in the paper saying that Julia Gillard and the Labor parliamentarians who voted for her are puppets of the big bad union movement. Sometimes I begin to lose faith in humanity. :(

[Sir Comradical]

The tax was ridiculous in the first place but the whole thing really turned into a total clusterfuck when the mining companies started taking action against it.

It was to be a 40% tax on super profits, most of which none of us were going to see anyway. They already pay a very small rate when you consider just how much profits are really being made by the mining companies in WA: http://newmatilda.com/2010/05/26/digging-figures-mining-profits

The Rudd government was already compromising with the mining companies in the first place:



(From CPA - The Guardian http://www.cpa.org.au/guardian/2010/1459/01-wanted-real-super-profit-tax.html)

I'm not sure what the figure on how much was going back into tax cuts for large businesses, I think it was 28% out of the 40% rate. The point is, the fact that there was even a debate over such a pathetic tax imposed on the rich is incredible. To top it all off now Julia Gillard is almost definately going to scrap it altogether.

I cannot believe the letters in the paper saying that Julia Gillard and the Labor parliamentarians who voted for her are puppets of the big bad union movement. Sometimes I begin to lose faith in humanity. :(

Holy shit, I didn't know about those extra concessions.

[Bilan]

I like the rest of your analysis but this not going to happen. If it did, NSW and Vic Greens (about 65% of the party) would leave the Australian Greens. There were serious discussions about NSW leaving when Tasmanian Greens proposed a coalition with the Liberals.

Well, it will be amusing to see what happens come the time. It's not desirable, but given the same situation that the UK finds itself in, I would be surprised if the leadership didn't make a move like that.