Population Census and Soviet Victims

[Drace]

Does Russian population Census hint us at all about the supposed millions and millions of victims of Stalin?

The population of 1920, according to Wikipedia was 137.7 million. By 1939, we see an impressive rise to 168,524,000. All this despite the supposed 20-30 million lives lost?
By a generous proposed growth of 2 million a year the population should have raised to 175.5 million. The different between the projection and the actual result is right about 7 million.

Simple mathematics arrive us from much different conclusions than proposed by the "scholars". This really has me question the methods and numbers used.
Any immediate objections? I'd like to do a further and deeper analysis which includes emigration, immigration, more realistic birth rates, etc. I'd be interesting

[Ele'ill]

I would be interested in this as well.

[Drace]

Also if anyone knows, what methods are used for the projections used by someone like Robert Conquest?

[SocialismOrBarbarism]

Well, for what it's worth, this is from wiki:


The Soviet Census held on January 6, 1937 was the most controversial of the censuses taken within the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. The census results were destroyed and its organizers were sent to the Gulag as saboteurs because the census showed much lower population figures than anticipated.
On 26 January 1934 Joseph Stalin reported to the 17th Congress of the All-Union Communist Party (b) as one of the main achievements "Growth of population from 160.5 millions in the end of 1930 to the 168 millions in the end of 1933"Though according to you and the 1939 census was barely larger than this 6 years later.

[Revolution]

If you want to honestly look into the facts about the Soviet Union under Stalin, read - stalinsociety.org.uk/lies

It explains probably everything you want to know


The accusation that 20 million people died under Stalin is a complete Myth thats generally been accepted as true, because it's been said so many times by the mass media.


If you tell a lie so many times, eventually it becomes true - Adolf Hitler

[revolution inaction]

Does Russian population Census hint us at all about the supposed millions and millions of victims of Stalin?

The population of 1920, according to Wikipedia was 137.7 million. By 1939, we see an impressive rise to 168,524,000. All this despite the supposed 20-30 million lives lost?
By a generous proposed growth of 2 million a year the population should have raised to 175.5 million. The different between the projection and the actual result is right about 7 million.

Simple mathematics arrive us from much different conclusions than proposed by the "scholars". This really has me question the methods and numbers used.
Any immediate objections? I'd like to do a further and deeper analysis which includes emigration, immigration, more realistic birth rates, etc. I'd be interesting

For the second one is that just Russia or the whole USSR? if the second is just russia are there figures for migration inside the ussr? is the same methodolagy used for both? is there any information on changes in life expectancy? etc.

[gorillafuck]

If you want to honestly look into the facts about the Soviet Union under Stalin, read - stalinsociety.org.uk/lies
The Stalin Sociey's writings are so terrible. And do they ever source any of their statistics?

[Nolan]

The Stalin Sociey's writings are so terrible.

Right, because they include all the facts that are extremely inconvenient for the Trotskyist and anarchist worldviews.

[ComradeMan]

Statistics prove that statistics prove nothing.
:cool:

[gorillafuck]

Statistics prove that statistics prove nothing.
:cool:
Statistics are overrated but they can still be good indicators sometimes.


Right, because they include all the facts that are extremely inconvenient for the Trotskyist and anarchist worldviews.
Oh, precisely:laugh:

It's funny how there seems to be a certain type of Marxist-Leninist (not all, but a noticeable amount) that screams and shouts if there's any fact presented that isn't from a source that's supportive of Stalin, but believe anything that's pro-Stalin regardless of sources.

[Drace]

For the second one is that just Russia or the whole USSR? if the second is just russia are there figures for migration inside the ussr? is the same methodolagy used for both? is there any information on changes in life expectancy? etc.Both are USSR as a whole. No info on the life expectancy. I would think it grew.

I also read the stalinsociety article but couldn't find any of the sources else where.
It gives the authors who conducted works on the archives. I looked them up but nothing came up.

[Bud Struggle]

I don't know that we have any accurate figures.

How many Cuban doctors in Haiti? 20 or 250? I don't have a clue--who is telling the truth? Spin becomes your ideology and the truth gets left in the dirt.

It sucks.

[Nolan]

Statistics are overrated but they can still be good indicators sometimes.


Oh, precisely:laugh:

It's funny how there seems to be a certain type of Marxist-Leninist (not all, but a noticeable amount) that screams and shouts if there's any fact presented that isn't from a source that's supportive of Stalin, but believe anything that's pro-Stalin regardless of sources.

As if it doesn't apply to everyone else in reverse... And don't assume I love every shit Stalin took.

[ComradeOm]

I don't know that we have any accurate figures.

How many Cuban doctors in Haiti? 20 or 250? I don't have a clue--who is telling the truth? Spin becomes your ideology and the truth gets left in the dirt.

It sucks.Its a good thing we are not talking about doctors in Haiti then but rather a census conducted a statistical agency that was actually pretty advanced for its time. Distortions to the Soviet censuses were no doubt introduced due to political pressure but the base data collected by the statisticians remains sound. That's why it was only the headline figures that were ever published

Its possible, and Western academics have done this in the past decade, to remove the political factors (which were often very crude) and reconstruct the original findings.

I talk a bit about the census figures in the first few pages of this thread (http://www.revleft.com/vb/stalin-thread-all-t100814/index.html) (including the 8 million gap) while I'd recommend both Ellman's Soviet Repression Statistics: Some Comments and Wheatcroft's Soviet Statistics of Nutrition & Mortality During Times of Famine

What is certain from these studies, and others conducted since the opening of the archives, is that Conquest-esque estimates of 20+ million dead are completely false

[Solzhenitsyn]

Does Russian population Census hint us at all about the supposed millions and millions of victims of Stalin?

The population of 1920, according to Wikipedia was 137.7 million. By 1939, we see an impressive rise to 168,524,000. All this despite the supposed 20-30 million lives lost?
By a generous proposed growth of 2 million a year the population should have raised to 175.5 million. The different between the projection and the actual result is right about 7 million.

Simple mathematics arrive us from much different conclusions than proposed by the "scholars". This really has me question the methods and numbers used.
Any immediate objections? I'd like to do a further and deeper analysis which includes emigration, immigration, more realistic birth rates, etc. I'd be interesting

Soviet economic and demographic statistics aren't worth the paper they're printed on. The lower levels of the nomenclatura simply reported what they thought the bosses wanted to hear. If Stalin is demanding a particular result to your findings then you'd better find that result if you don't want to spend the rest of your life in Lubyanka.

[Nolan]

Soviet economic and demographic statistics aren't worth the paper they're printed on. The lower levels of the nomenclatura simply reported what they thought the bosses wanted to hear. If Stalin is demanding a particular result to your findings then you'd better find that result if you don't want to spend the rest of your life in Lubyanka.

Lol!

Translation:

EMERGENCY, EMERGENCY! LOSING DEBATE!

DENIAL MODE ACTIVATED

[ComradeOm]

Soviet economic and demographic statistics aren't worth the paper they're printed on. The lower levels of the nomenclatura simply reported what they thought the bosses wanted to hear. If Stalin is demanding a particular result to your findings then you'd better find that result if you don't want to spend the rest of your life in Lubyanka.Amazing. You write this directly under a post in which I rebut the exact same nonsense

[Solzhenitsyn]

Amazing. You write this directly under a post in which I rebut the exact same nonsense

What's even more amazing are people who claim they can pull reasonably accurate figures from admittedly falsified census data. Not just wrong or bad data but data sets that were created with the sole purpose of deception. It's like turning lead into gold. It's statistical alchemy.

[Drace]

What's even more amazing are people who claim they can pull reasonably accurate figures from admittedly falsified census data. Not just wrong or bad data but data sets that were created with the sole purpose of deception. It's like turning lead into gold. It's statistical alchemy.

Your reasoning is so ridiculous that its ridiculous.

You make up the thesis that the USSR is evil, and so you make the assumption that their census MUST be false since they're evil then you propose the USSR is evil because your assumption is true.

In other words, your own hysteria is backed only by more hysteria.

You need, EVIDENCE.

I can do that too.
The US is evil. It fakes its census, in reality 10 million Americans die every day. Its true since their evil, and their evil because its true. :rolleyes:

[Raúl Duke]

Your reasoning is so ridiculous that its ridiculous.

You make up the thesis that the USSR is evil, and so you make the assumption that their census MUST be false since they're evil then you propose the USSR is evil because your assumption is true.

In other words, your own hysteria is backed only by more hysteria.

You need, EVIDENCE.

I can do that too.
The US is evil. It fakes its census, in reality 10 million Americans die every day. Its true since their evil, and their evil because its true. :rolleyes:

LoL...me and my roommate were having this discussion about that kind of mentality/thinking; plus making fun of yahoo answers.

Nevertheless, you are correct sir.

[khad]

From the statistical data, there appears to be a upper limit of demographic deficits at about 10-12 million, and even for these, the actual number would have been likely been lower due to the birth deficits which occur after any major famine. Many "victims" were simply not born.

[ComradeOm]

What's even more amazing are people who claim they can pull reasonably accurate figures from admittedly falsified census data. Not just wrong or bad data but data sets that were created with the sole purpose of deception. It's like turning lead into gold. It's statistical alchemy.I take it that you simply did not read my post then. The data itself is not falsified. Period. The distortions were introduced once the data had been collected but before publishing. Or do you really think that Soviet statisticians painstakingly concocted false data (defeating the point of the census exercise in the first place!) and were then arrested because their lies were not good enough? Nonsense

The reason that the full recordings of these censuses (ie, anything beyond the headline figures) were not published is because they are correct and thus contradict the official conclusions. This base data was adjusted in an extremely crude manner through the simple addition of a million here and a million there, as I mention in that above link. Wheatcroft's Soviet Statistics of Nutrition & Mortality During Times of Famine is also good on this if you want a professional opinion