A brief prediction with regards to the next stage of American capitalism

[Tzadikim]

I believe - and I ground this belief not on any penetrating dialectical analysis, but a more immediate form of reasoning I call "a gut feeling" - that President Obama will be defeated by a candidate from the Nativist wing of the Republican Party in 2012, heralding an era of reaction which makes Reaganism seem downright humanistic in comparison.

I further expect this to cause the capitalist deck to shuffle once more: the Nativists, as pseudo-populists with a somewhat different appeal than the hitherto dominant bourgeois neoliberal internationalists, will force the capitalists into a gradual programme of re-industrialization (which they will initially object to, citing fears of renewed class struggle) on xenophobic grounds.

This will prove to us a blessing and a curse: it will again create a mass base for us, and it will again legitimize open chauvinism - the last sixty years of "progress" will be lost.

Because of this feeling - and, I admit, it is only a feeling, and could be wrong - my concern is neither for the immediate initiation of Revolution (a practical impossibility for the time being), nor the advance of an aggressive, offensive working-class agenda - but instead the gradual and voluntary adoption of an indefatigable defensive position.

Please point out where I could be wrong.

[The Douche]

The republican party isn't politicaly inept. They know that their radical wing does not have mass support, so they will probably retry their plan from the last election (moderate potus candidate/radical vp candidate).

However I do think it is a possibility, that if the tea party movement continues to hold its popularity/gain popularity that Palin will run for president on a third party or independent ticket, which will draw a very large number of votes from the republicans.

She won't, however, get elected, and if she does run under those conditions it garuntees the reelection of Obama.

[Lynx]

A more protectionist America is possible, especially if the dollar were to crash. But if the economy recovers to a level of normalcy, I don't believe we would see anything but a symbolic shift in policy.
Obama will lose the next presidential election - of that, I am nearly certain.

[Die Neue Zeit]

Even if there's a major third-party candidate?

[The Douche]

Even if there's a major third-party candidate?

I don't think that poster considered the possibility of a serious third party candidate who can split the republican vote.

Part of me thinks there is no way Obama can win the next election unless Palin runs independent, but he really does have quite the cult of personality. I hear it all the time at school, whenever anything remotely negative is said about him, or if its suggested that he is not living up to expectations, there are instantly people from all ethnic and age backrounds who spring to his defense. So many people are in love with the man and have absolutely no clue about the politics.

[GPDP]

I don't think the Nativist movement is that strong - not quite yet, at the very least. Sure enough, it will probably influence a mainstream Republican candidate to lean ever more right-ward, but not so much that he (or she) will fully implement their desires into concrete policy.

Nevertheless, I do agree Obama is, in all likelihood, going to lose reelection. And while I am not overjoyed at the prospect of a hyper-reactionary Republican president, nevertheless I have to say good fucking riddance. Perhaps the American people will think twice before again thinking black skin and pseudo-progressive, feel good rhetoric makes for substantive "hope" and "change."


I don't think that poster considered the possibility of a serious third party candidate who can split the republican vote.

Part of me thinks there is no way Obama can win the next election unless Palin runs independent, but he really does have quite the cult of personality. I hear it all the time at school, whenever anything remotely negative is said about him, or if its suggested that he is not living up to expectations, there are instantly people from all ethnic and age backrounds who spring to his defense. So many people are in love with the man and have absolutely no clue about the politics.

Right, and how many of those do you think will actually turn up to vote? His liberal base is, if polls are any indication, pretty demoralized in general. Better still, there seems to be a little bit of resurgence from anti-war movements and their ilk, for too long shut down from not wanting to talk back to the Dalai Obama.

The reactionary right is skyrocketing on their way back to dominance, and the liberal "left" is slowly but surely losing faith in Obama. A few vocal, delusional campus liberals do not change that fact. Obama is in serious danger of having the rug swept off from underneath his feet, and the Democrats in general fare no better.

[The Douche]

I don't think the Nativist movement is that strong - not quite yet, at the very least. Sure enough, it will probably influence a mainstream Republican candidate to lean ever more right-ward, but not so much that he (or she) will fully implement their desires into concrete policy.

I don't think that the tea partiers have the strength to elect a president. But I do think they can make a (virtually irrelevant) impact on the republican party, like I said, we will most likely see another moderate neocon (mccain but a bit younger, maybe black, ala michael steele) and a radical vp (think palin, but a little quicker on their feet).

But if the tea partiers continue on the current path, and if they keep getting the undeserved attention they get in the media, and they get the support of more mainstream politicians (palin and perry) then they could get enough support the cost the republicans the election.


Right, and how many of those do you think will actually turn up to vote? His liberal base is, if polls are any indication, pretty demoralized in general. Better still, there seems to be a little bit of resurgence from anti-war movements and their ilk, for too long shut down from not wanting to talk back to the Dalai Obama.

The reactionary right is skyrocketing on their way back to dominance, and the liberal "left" is slowly but surely losing faith in Obama. A few vocal, delusional campus liberals do not change that fact. Obama is in serious danger of having the rug swept off from underneath his feet, and the Democrats in general fare no better.

I'm curious to see the strength of the antiwar movement. I hope that there really is a resurgence and this isn't just the backing left wing groups attempt to hold on to some sort of activist relevancy since they're detatched from the worker's movement.

Yes, the reactionary right is making a comeback, and like I said, I believe Obama will loose the next election unless Palin runs third party.

These are not "campus liberals", I go to community college, these are everything from 18 year old kids who didn't get to vote, to 55 year old women. None of them are "political" people, they're obsessed with Obama the man, they don't know a thing about his politics. He really does have a cult of personality, thats all I'm saying.

[GPDP]

Oh, I agree about his cult of personality. What I'm saying, though, is it won't be enough to get him reelected. Not this time around. I believe a substantial amount of liberals are, if not completely turned off, at least skeptical about Obama.

http://www.mattbors.com/strips/591.gif

And about the Tea Party reactionaries: I don't think they're gonna run against the Republican Party or take votes away from them. What I see happening instead is the Republican candidate will basically do what Obama did: draw them in with populist rhetoric, and then ditch them later. In other words, the Republicans will pander to the arch-reactionaries during their campaigns, then move closer to the status quo once they get in power.

[The Douche]

Yeah, things definitely dont look good for Obama, I was just commenting that his cult of personality is astounding. Only the people who are politically ignorant are still defending him.

Of course the republicans will pander to the right-populists (like they did with Palin in the last election). But I don't see how you can brush off the possibility of the tea partiers becoming a bigger political force. Have you had any contact with them on a personal level? (in a non-confrontational/political way)

My girlfriend's family are nativists and they are certainly prepared to vote for palin, even if the GOP doesn't run her. I have also talked to a number of tea partiers and people who organized the local tea party and they are no longer attatched to the GOP. They don't want to vote for the libertarians or constitutionalists yet, but they would vote for a new party.

[Tzadikim]

The republican party isn't politicaly inept. They know that their radical wing does not have mass support, so they will probably retry their plan from the last election (moderate potus candidate/radical vp candidate).

However I do think it is a possibility, that if the tea party movement continues to hold its popularity/gain popularity that Palin will run for president on a third party or independent ticket, which will draw a very large number of votes from the republicans.

She won't, however, get elected, and if she does run under those conditions it garuntees the reelection of Obama.

It doesn't necessarily have to be Palin who represents this wing of the GOP. In fact, in the course of writing my post, I was thinking more along the lines of someone like Mike Huckabee (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Huckabee), who represents the same generalized "populist" wing while being far more personable, and slightly less inept.

[The Douche]

It doesn't necessarily have to be Palin who represents this wing of the GOP. In fact, in the course of writing my post, I was thinking more along the lines of someone like Mike Huckabee (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Huckabee), who represents the same generalized "populist" wing while being far more personable, and slightly less inept.

I think Huckabee is more likely to be a candidate selected by the GOP, whereas Palin represents the wing of the party which could make a break.

I have a lot of friends in the army who support Huckabee, and while they are on the margins of the tea party movement, they aren't really accurate representations of the nativist movement. They could easily remain part of the GOP, but could possibly be swayed over to the nativists.

[Nolan]

Ron Paul is definitely the guy to watch.

[The Douche]

Ron Paul is definitely the guy to watch.

No, because Ron Paul is seen as a nutjob by the majority of the Nativists. And he's certainly not gonna get the GOP nomination.


I really think people (if they want to truly understand the nativist movement) should be lurking their websites. Because some people have distorted or out of date views about them.

[ZeroNowhere]

Please point out where I could be wrong.Every second from now till then has the potential to make your prediction turn out false in the end.