2010: Where Is Peak Oil?

[Tatarin]

Yes, this is another peak oil thread, but I haven't heard much from this future catastrophe in some time. Isn't oil supposed to have peaked like two years ago? I took a look on the "Life After The Oil Crash" site I found, but it seems nothing new is on. It also claimed that we should about now experience all sorts of "blackouts" due to energy shortage(?).

Was it all bonkers?

[whore]

peak oil is not a myth. at some point, more than half of the accessible oil will have been used. oil will, then, just keep getting more expensive (unless alternatives, perhaps plant based, are found).

wikipedia has a good explanation:

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum) extraction (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraction_of_petroleum) is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.

if you look at the predicting the timing article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil), you can see that some people argue that the peak has already passed.

as wikipedia also notes: (from the Peak Oil article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#Timing_of_peak_oil))

the only reliable way to identify the timing of peak oil will be in retrospect

anyway, when peak oil does hit (if it hasn't already), it might not be imediently obvious. oil prices may rise, or they might not. perhaps the minor economic hick-up that's been happening has kept prices down?

but, we will hit the half-way mark if we keep using oil faster than it is made (and it takes a few million years to make it, so...)

[La Comédie Noire]

A lot of Peak Oil people blow stuff way out of proportion.

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2008/01/317-strong-argument-for-slow-decline.html

But this isn't to say it's all "bonkers". It will happen, but it won't be as severe as Campbell and Kunstler would have you believe.

For your consideration: Kunstler believed Y2K would be a society shattering disaster, need I say more?

Also

http://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2007/12/320-electric-trucks.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8485669.stm

[Sendo]

I believe the most recent theory, one I've read through Monthly Review, is that we will reach an oil plateau because the economic and physical and political ability to hit the peak rapidly is not feasible.

[Klaatu]

Check out this discussion board

PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/index.php

[whore]

For your consideration: Kunstler believed Y2K would be a society shattering disaster, need I say more?
actually, basing your opinion of a person's future predictions based on their previous predictions is not always a good idea. it depends strongly on their qualifications and so on. i dont know who kunstler is, if they are a geologist or similar, i would not discount their opinions simply because a prediction in an area that isn't their own was wrong.

besides, y2k could have been massive and problematic. but a lot of people worked hard to test things to make sure that it wasn't a big problem.

[La Comédie Noire]

actually, basing your opinion of a person's future predictions based on their previous predictions is not always a good idea. it depends strongly on their qualifications and so on. i dont know who kunstler is, if they are a geologist or similar, i would not discount their opinions simply because a prediction in an area that isn't their own was wrong.

besides, y2k could have been massive and problematic. but a lot of people worked hard to test things to make sure that it wasn't a big problem.

The only qualifications Kunstler has is a degree in the Performing arts and a big imagination. I'm not saying Y2k couldn't have been a problem or Peak Oil isn't a pressing concern, some people just tend to blow things way out of proportion and almost always it is because they are leaving important information out of their assessment. People who have a very positive view do the exact same thing. Reality is never black or white, but somewhat of a gray area.

[Wolf Larson]

Many of the people pushing both peak oil and climate change are now capitalists trying to inflate another economic bubble. I'm not saying all or even most but a small powerful minority element of the capitalist class has latched onto both the environmental and peak oil movements. Of course peak oil is real and will undoubtedly happen sooner rather than later [in our lifetime] and carbon is in fact going to destroy the earth if we do not get off the path we're on BUT what I'm saying is capitalists have hijacked the movements in an effort to preserve capitalism as opposed to what we want which is to end capitalism. So, the large capitalist is seeking to further monopolize the entire market via carbon emission legislation while creating a new capitalist economic bubble for themselves to profit based on green technology. What we need to do is focus on avoiding the social catastrophe of both climate change and peak oil BUT using the social catastrophe that is capitalism to fix it is not the answer. This is why all environmental legislation pushed in Washington should be suspect because it will be environmental legislation that benefits the top 1% of the corporate world [who do you think Al Gore is representing?]. What we should all be doing is starting coops based in green technology while focusing on starting strong unions within the capitalists coming green tech economic bubble. If we can unionize the capitalists coming green tech enterprises and or regulate their parent corporations out of business while starting green tech coops we will be victorious- basically if we can start our own green tech coops while regulating large corporations out of business in lieu of them regulating us out of business we will be in good shape BUT the environmental legislation being pushed now will no doubt benefit large corporations as will the green tech bubble that's on the way. The environmental regulation that will pass looks like it will put smaller enterprises out of business and if it does [as I think it will] we need to work to unionize the coming green economy. It is coming. The capitalists have inflated and destroyed every other section of the economy. The bubbles have all burst and there's nothing left to pump up. The S&L bubble burst. The internet bubble burst. The housing bubble burst. Up next is green tech. Socialists must find a way to keep capitalists from the coming green tech based economy. We all need to fight hard and I MEAN HARD to get corporate Democrats out of office while beating back the Tea Party idiocy. The corporate world has their interests represented by both Democrats AND the AstroTurf Tea Party movement. Both liberals and Tea Party people are our enemies and we have been dropping the ball as far as drawing the line in the sand while working our asses off to get our people in office. The way it looks now the super capitalist will have their way. The super capitalist will control the new green economy that is on its way.

[Lord Testicles]

Peak oil is a myth. As soon as we start to run out of natural oil reserves, do you think the capitalists will just shrug their shoulders and say "Man, we fucked up." or is it more likely that they will scurry about looking for new energy sources or making more oil? Like these scientists who can turn sunlight into petrol: http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/01/S2P

[Psy]

Peak oil is a myth. As soon as we start to run out of natural oil reserves, do you think the capitalists will just shrug their shoulders and say "Man, we fucked up." or is it more likely that they will scurry about looking for new energy sources or making more oil? Like these scientists who can turn sunlight into petrol: http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/01/S2P
The problem for capitalists is all the fixed capital they have around conventional oil extraction.

[Lord Testicles]

The problem for capitalists is all the fixed capital they have around conventional oil extraction.

Wouldn't that start to change once the rate of oil extraction can't mean demand?

[Psy]

Wouldn't that start to change once the rate of oil extraction can't mean demand?
Demand for oil based products has crashed due to the current crisis and still in decline due to industry in general in decline. So capitalists in the oil industry don't want to invest in new fixed capital when they see demand contracting.